CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2018, 03:31:19 PM
-
In the current Power Rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5560.0) the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines are ranked #1, #2, and #3. Looking at the schedule:
- Ohio State plays at Penn State this weekend.
- Penn State plays at Michigan on November 3.
- Michigan plays at Ohio State on November 24.
So what happens if the home team wins all three of those games and they each win their other eight conference games. The B1G website lays out the following eight tiebreaking procedures with the stipulation that "(i)f only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."
- H2H2H
- Divisional Record
- Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc.
- Record against all common conference opponents.
- Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
- Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc. (Note, that in this case 1-0 is better than 0-0 and 0-0 is better than 0-1)
- Overall winning percentage not including FCS games.
- Random Draw.
In this hypothetical:
- tied, 1-1.
- tied, 5-1.
- tied, all are 1-0 against each.
- tied, 4-0 (the three teams do not have any common B1G-W opponents and would each be 4-0 against UMD, MSU, IU, and RU)
- This would most likely be the deciding factor, see below.
- If not #5, then this would most likely eliminate tOSU leaving it to Michigan as the winner of the PSU/M game or Penn State as the only one of the three to play Iowa.
- In this scenario this one would eliminate Michigan leaving it to PSU as the winner of the PSU/tOSU game.
- Who knows.
#5, best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
Ohio State's B1G-W opponents (with ranking in current Power Rankings and current B1G record) are:
- #9 Purdue 0-1
- #10/11 Minnesota 0-1
- #13 Nebraska 0-1
Penn State's B1G-W opponents are:
- #4 Wisconsin 1-0
- #6 Iowa 0-1
- #12 Illinois 0-1
Michigan's B1G-W opponents are:
- #4 Wisconsin 1-0
- #10/11 Northwestern 1-0
- #13 Nebraska 0-1
Currently the standings therefore are:
- 2-1 Michigan's B1G-W opponents
- 1-2 Penn State's B1G-W opponents
- 0-3 Ohio State's B1G-W opponents
Also:
- Ohio State and Michigan have Nebraska in common.
- Penn State and Michigan have Wisconsin in common.
In order for Ohio State to win two things would have to happen:
- Purdue and Minnesota would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin and Northwestern (to get ahead of Michigan), and
- Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois (to get ahead of Penn State).
There is no plausible way for Ohio State to win this potential tie.
Thus, it would really come down to PSU v Michigan and since they share Wisconsin that one is irrelevant. It would simply be:
- Iowa and Illinois for PSU vs
- Northwestern and Nebraska for Michigan.
From the look of things right now that strongly favors Penn State.
-
What would happen next?
In that scenario Wisconsin (PSU, M), Iowa (UW, PSU), Minnesota (UMD, tOSU) and Michigan (ND, tOSU) would all have at least two losses. The rest of the B1G-W teams already have at least two losses. Thus, the B1GCG would be between 11-1 Penn State and a B1G-W team with at least two losses. Here is where it might get interesting.
Every team in the B1G would have at least two losses except for two:
- Penn State would be 11-1 and heading to Indy for the B1GCG.
- Ohio State would be 11-1 with their regular season complete . . .
Ohio State is currently ranked #4 in both polls. Obviously a loss to Penn State this weekend would drop the Buckeyes somewhat but in this scenario they would then finish on a seven game winning streak capped off by a win over a 10-1 Michigan team that would come into that game on a 10 game winning streak that would include a win over the team that beat Ohio State. Michigan is already ranked #14/15 and with seven more consecutive wins including over #9 (would be much higher at game-time) PSU, #15 UW, and #21 MSU they would most likely come into Ohio Stadium in the top-4 with Ohio State not far behind.
What would the rankings be after Ohio State beat Michigan? Ohio State obviously would not get into the CFP ahead of a 12-1 B1G Champion PSU team that beat them H2H but what if Penn State lost the CG to a B1G-W team with at least two losses?
-
In the current Power Rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5560.0) the Buckeyes, Nittany Lions, and Wolverines are ranked #1, #2, and #3. Looking at the schedule:
- Ohio State plays at Penn State this weekend.
- Penn State plays at Michigan on November 3.
- Michigan plays at Ohio State on November 24.
So what happens if the home team wins all three of those games and they each win their other eight conference games. The B1G website lays out the following eight tiebreaking procedures with the stipulation that "(i)f only two teams remain tied after any step (or sub-step), the winner of the game between the two tied teams shall be the representative."
- H2H2H
- Divisional Record
- Record against the next best team(s) in the division, then the next, then the next, etc.
- Record against all common conference opponents.
- Best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
- Record against the best team(s) in the other division, then the next, then the next, etc. (Note, that in this case 1-0 is better than 0-0 and 0-0 is better than 0-1)
- Overall winning percentage not including FCS games.
- Random Draw.
In this hypothetical:
- tied, 1-1.
- tied, 5-1.
- tied, all are 1-0 against each.
- tied, 4-0 (the three teams do not have any common B1G-W opponents and would each be 4-0 against UMD, MSU, IU, and RU)
- This would most likely be the deciding factor, see below.
- If not #5, then this would most likely eliminate tOSU leaving it to Michigan as the winner of the PSU/M game or Penn State as the only one of the three to play Iowa.
- In this scenario this one would eliminate Michigan leaving it to PSU as the winner of the PSU/tOSU game.
- Who knows.
#5, best cumulative conference winning percentage of non-divisional opponents.
Ohio State's B1G-W opponents (with ranking in current Power Rankings and current B1G record) are:
- #9 Purdue 0-1
- #10/11 Minnesota 0-1
- #13 Nebraska 0-1
Penn State's B1G-W opponents are:
- #4 Wisconsin 1-0
- #6 Iowa 0-1
- #12 Illinois 0-1
Michigan's B1G-W opponents are:
- #4 Wisconsin 1-0
- #10/11 Northwestern 1-0
- #13 Nebraska 0-1
Currently the standings therefore are:
- 2-1 Michigan's B1G-W opponents
- 1-2 Penn State's B1G-W opponents
- 0-3 Ohio State's B1G-W opponents
Also:
- Ohio State and Michigan have Nebraska in common.
- Penn State and Michigan have Wisconsin in common.
In order for Ohio State to win two things would have to happen:
- Purdue and Minnesota would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin and Northwestern (to get ahead of Michigan), and
- Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska would have to have a better combined record than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois (to get ahead of Penn State).
There is no plausible way for Ohio State to win this potential tie.
Thus, it would really come down to PSU v Michigan and since they share Wisconsin that one is irrelevant. It would simply be:
- Iowa and Illinois for PSU vs
- Northwestern and Nebraska for Michigan.
From the look of things right now that strongly favors Penn State.
you are amazing medina
-
Just win Baby !
-
Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?
-
Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?
I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.
-
I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.
Mark Dantonio reads this board. MSU will now take the conference because of your DISRESPEKT.
-
As for the tiebreakers, I believe #'s 5 and 6 are new this year. #6 is not a good tie-breaker. At least it's #6.
-
Mark Dantonio reads this board. MSU will now take the conference because of your DISRESPEKT.
Lol it's not DISRESPKT.
It's just not what we are accustomed to seeing from MSU pass D. They've pumped out some great players in that secondary under Dantonio and I can't ever remember them ranking that low in pass D. Not exactly like they've been playing a murderers row of passers in their first 4 games either.
-
I think their secondary could be fine, though. Layne is practically a known entity. Dowell is among the conference's best safeties. Scott'll be back soon, but in the mean time the fill-in (is it Butler?) is "fine."
The main issue? The pass rush. It's not good.
-
What if it instead happened with Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana?
:098:
-
What if it instead happened with Michigan State, Maryland and Indiana?
:098:
Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.
-
Sacks and TFL numbers are fine thus far and overall pressure was much improved against IU.
The rush defense is fantastic so teams have really pressured the secondary. I’d bet MSU is near the tops in opponent pass attempts. Yards per attempt probably isn’t horrible.
We’ll see if this stabilizes.
-
I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.
There's a chance, maybe a good one, that number is a bit misleading. They are 123rd, but they've also faced the third-most passes per game. The yards per attempt is somewhat average (65th), in line with a defense like the 2015 one.
I dunno if that helps or not, but they're 36th in yards per play allowed, with a less-cream puff schedule than most. Combine that with the notoriously slow starts, and maybe they round into form. Maybe not though.
(What is fascinating is in a few years they basically de-Narduzzi-ized there defense, and were still damn good last year)
-
De-Narduzzi-ized that sounds like it would put one at a decided disadvantage or maybe just De-Narduzzied.
-
My heads gonna explode
-
I think their pass defense will keep them out of that discussion. They have the #123rd ranked pass defense in the country. There are 129 teams.
Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61. That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20. The defense is far from the problem.
-
De-Narduzzi-ized that sounds like it would put one at a decided disadvantage or maybe just De-Narduzzied.
Sort of. A Narduzzi defense has a mildly higher ceiling, much lower floor, in theory. But you can get the kind of defense they’re running now toward a pretty decent ceiling.
-
Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61. That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20. The defense is far from the problem.
Also worth remembering and adding to what you said, two thirds of MSU’s schedule is P5 teams, And the third has the No. 16 passer in the country in yards.
Basically, it’s still early, and some stats are a little uneven, especially the raw total numbers
-
Well, #123 in raw yardage, which just means teams throw on them a lot, which makes sense when you have the #1 run defense both on per game AND per play basis.
Yards per attempt is not great, but it's #75, which is at least a lot better, and their defensive passing rating allowed is even better, #61. That slots them one spot behind Wisconsin (#60) and 2 spots ahead of Iowa (#63).
S&P+ overall ranks their defense #20. The defense is far from the problem.
The defense is definitely not capital The Problem, but in the past with Narduzzi as DC, MSU could better survive a terrible OL by making all yardage and scoring outrageously hard. An OL like this can't be counterbalanced by a pretty good defense.
-
Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.
What he said.
Seriously, Indiana already has a conference loss so they couldn't end up in a three-way 8-1 tie with MSU and UMD anyway. I like doing hypotheticals of things that might happen but that is too far out there. In a few weeks or whatever if it is appropriate to look at different teams, I'll do that then.
-
Indiana's loss was to MSU, so they could still wind up in a three way tie with Maryland, whereby each of the three go 8-1 in the Big Ten and 1-1 against each other.
But I don't blame you for not spending any time on that one.
-
Why not add Michigan State to this discussion?
A few reasons:
First, I think that tOSU, PSU, and M all going 8-1 is not ridiculously implausible. I surely wouldn't bet on it, but it could happen. In the games among them, they each host one and travel for one. Also, none of them travel to #4 (your team) or #6 (IA) and only two (tOSU and M) travel to #5 (MSU). Consequently there aren't ANY ridiculously unlikely results that would be needed for this to happen. As I said, I wouldn't bet on it but that is because the cumulative chance of all of this happening is very low. The individual chances of each of the necessary results happening are all at least in the neighborhood of 50/50 or better (mostly MUCH better).
Second, frankly that doesn't make for a very interesting or complex result. If we assume that the top five (tOSU, PSU, M, UW, and MSU) all win the home games among themselves and beat everyone else then here are the projected final Standings:
B1G-W:
- 7-2 Wisconsin (losses at PSU and M)
- Every other team would have at least two losses including a loss to UW so UW goes to Indy.
B1G-E:
- 8-1 Penn State (loss at Michigan)
- 8-1 MSU (loss at PSU)
- 7-2 Ohio State (losses at PSU and MSU)
- 7-2 Michigan (losses at tOSU and MSU)
Penn State wins the tiebreaker by virtue of their home H2H win over Michigan State.
-
Indiana's loss was to MSU, so they could still wind up in a three way tie with Maryland, whereby each of the three go 8-1 in the Big Ten and 1-1 against each other.
But I don't blame you for not spending any time on that one.
It was also a home loss. You are right, it could but until I see enough from those teams to make me think it is plausible, I'm not running that scenario.
One of the reasons is that in any 8-1 three-way tie it will automatically come down to tiebreaker #5 because #1-4 will automatically be tied. So that is the answer, whoever had the better B1G-W opponents wins. When I looked at tOSU/PSU/M I assumed some things about those B1G-W opponents which is why I said that there was "no plausible way for tOSU to win this three-way tie". However, if we are doing ridiculous hypotheticals where Indiana, Maryland, and Michigan State each go 3-0 against tOSU, M, and PSU then who is to say that there will not be ridiculous happenings out West as well? Maybe Purdue, Minnesota, and Nebraska will end up better than Wisconsin, Iowa, and Illinois.
-
The defense is definitely not capital The Problem, but in the past with Narduzzi as DC, MSU could better survive a terrible OL by making all yardage and scoring outrageously hard. An OL like this can't be counterbalanced by a pretty good defense.
No, but he said MSU is out because of their raw pass defense numbers. If he had said MSU is out because their OL won't do crap against the UM or OSU defensive fronts, I would have sat silently nodding.
-
Oh I agree. My comment was separate. That, it is at least plausible to - for example - win the Big Ten with an OL like this if the defense is sufficiently filthy. And this one is pretty good, even excellent against the run, but not complete enough to make up for the OL.
Narduzzi's best defense might have been, though.
-
Haha, that's just mean. Less to the teams than to medina. That's like 1000 words you just asked for on a whim, and there's no going back now, like in South Park whenever Cartman hears the first few words of Come Sail Away. The remainder is inevitable.
(https://pics.me.me/i-flew-too-close-to-the-sun-on-wings-of-21829409.png)