I'm going to go out on a limb and say Michigan State is the last Power 5 team in the country to play a home Saturday game. Between a Friday opener, a pair of road games, including a west coast trip, and a bye week, the September schedule for the Spartans has been very irregular. Not to mention, this is their first day game after three night games. Is that the reason for Michigan State's inconsistent play? Maybe a factor, but far from the biggest. At the top of the list is the offensive line which has failed to generate any push in the run game, and is starting to have an impact on the play of Lewerke, who seems to lack the pocket confidence we saw last year. To that end, it's clear the staff spent a lot of time convincing him to stay in the pocket, and he doesn't appear to be totally comfortable there. The offense got better late against Indiana when they started letting him run again. But a lot will open up if the play action starts to work. Getting L.J. Scott back, who has missed the last game and a half will help some, but the holes simply aren't there, it doesn't matter who is getting the carries. The Spartans are 4th in the Big Ten at 8.4 yards per pass attempt, but 13th at 3.3 yards per carry. The difference between the run and pass defense is just as stark. Michigan State still boasts the top run defense in the nation, at an insane 32.7 ypg allowed on only 1.1 ypc. Put it this way. Central Michigan could run for 237 yards this week, and Michigan State would still be ahead of Iowa for best run defense in the conference. They could give up 305, and still be ahead of everyone but Iowa. Utah State is averaging 245.7 rushing ypg otherwise, they had 25 against Michigan State. Arizona State is averaging 155.0 ypg otherwise, they had 44. Indiana is averaging 235.0 otherwise, they had 29. The flip side is that teams are throwing it at will. Granted the overall numbers look even worse because teams are also throwing it a lot, given the alternative, but they are still 10th in the Big Ten in passing yards allowed per attempt, and #8 in pass efficiency defense. So not great. But Central Michigan would kill to have Michigan State's problems. The Chippewas picked up their first win of the season on Saturday, an ugly 17-5 win over FCS Maine, where they were outgained 265-177. The Central Michigan offense has been an unmitigated mess this year, dead last in the FBS in S&P+. They have the second fewest yards per game, third fewest points per game, and fifth most turnovers per game. The offense has at least ticked up a notch since Tony Poljan (who had some Big Ten offers, including Michigan State, to play tight end) was benched at quarterback in favor of JUCO transfer Tommy Lazzaro. Lazzaro adds a running dynamic, with 99 rushing yards, and a pair of scores, in just a game and a half of action. They show a bit more life under him, but not enough. With two more injuries to an already struggling offensive line, I'm not sure how convincingly Michigan State can pull away, but absent some defensive breakdown, I'm also not sure how an offense that failed to hit 200 yards against Maine can move the ball enough. |