| Kind of a weird start to the season for Michigan State means we probably know less about them than any team in the conference. A Friday night opener against Utah State, then a trip out west to play in the middle of the night, then a bye week. This is a big one. Win this and you've got a terrible looking Central Michigan team, followed by a struggling Northwestern, before facing Penn State and Michigan in back to back weeks. You can at least go into that feeling ok at 4-1, and maybe writing off the Arizona State loss as a close loss in a tough environment, where the conference as a whole is 0-10. Lose this, with Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State to come, and the talk, three games in has already shifted from Big Ten title contender to bowl eligibility. The first two games have been shaped by unit dichotomies. The Spartans are averaging 8.3 ypp through the air (#2 in the Big Ten), but only 3.3 ypc on the ground (#13). They are only allowing 1.3 ypc (#1 in the entire nation), but are giving up a Big Ten worst 349.5 ypg through the air. The oddest part about the defense is how the front seven play has keyed the run defense, but their lack of pass rush has been the bigger problem in pass defense. Indiana plays the same style that Arizona State did, and wil look to kill Michigan State on short passing plays. The question is whether Peyton Ramsey is up for it. The step up from his freshman to his sophomore year has been immense. He's now #2 in the Big Ten, and #16 nationally in Total QBR, mostly thanks to a Big Ten best 74% completion percentage. But he's doing it with his legs too. His 106 rushing yards is 2nd among Big Ten quarterbacks, behind Trace McSorley. This is the style he's comfortable with though. Quick short passes, relying on his accuracy. That's why he leads in completion percentage, but is only 10th in yards per attempt. As long as he's picking up first downs, doesn't matter how long it takes. And the Hoosiers are picking up first downs, 26.0 of them per game, 2nd in the conference. That's trouble for a Michigan State defense that couldn't get off the field in their first two games, surrendering the league's second most first downs, with the worst 3rd down defense (44.8%). Michigan State needs to fix that, and finish drives. It's why I prefer points per red zone trip over red zone percentage. The Spartans' 90% looks fine, 4th best in the Big Ten. But they've only scored touchdowns on 50% of those, only Purdue is worse. It comes out to 4.7 points per trip. Then you look at a team like Indiana, who is 10th, at 78.6%, but finding the end zone, and averaging 4.9 points per trip. If Michigan State can get the Hoosiers off the field, and finish their own drives in the end zone, they should be fine. But Indiana's offense is built to attack defenses the way Michigan State is most vulnerable. Throw in that it's a home, night game, and it'll be time for Michigan State to reevaluate their 2018 goals. |