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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 07, 2018, 04:20:07 PM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 07, 2018, 04:20:07 PM

Link to last week's rankings: https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?topic=5310.0

Votes through SFBadger (16 voters):

Team/Poster	AVG	Rank	StdDev	Best	Worst	Range	LW AVG	LW Rank	Chg Avg	Chg Rank
tOSU	1.13	1	0.50	1	3	2	1.67	1.5	0.54	0.5
UW	2.06	2	0.44	1	3	2	1.67	1.5	(0.40)	-0.5
PSU	2.94	3	0.57	2	4	2	4.33	4	1.40	1
M	4.75	4	1.18	3	7	4	5.47	5	0.72	1
MSU	5.25	5	0.86	4	7	3	4.00	3	(1.25)	-2
Iowa	5.69	6	1.08	4	8	4	6.93	7	1.25	1
MD	6.75	7	1.44	4	9	5	7.13	8	0.38	1
IU	8.75	8	1.77	4	12	8	11.40	12	2.65	4
MN	9.38	9	1.45	7	11	4	10.93	11	1.56	2
UNL	9.50	10	1.21	7	11	4	9.73	10	0.23	0
NU	10.00	11	1.15	8	12	4	6.27	6	(3.73)	-5
PU	12.38	12	0.96	10	14	4	9.13	9	(3.24)	-3
RU	13.13	13	0.62	12	14	2	12.67	13	(0.46)	0
ILL	13.31	14	1.01	11	14	3	13.67	14	0.35	0

Drop the high and low:

Team/Poster	AVG	Rank	StdDev	Best	Worst	Range	LW AVG	LW Rank	Chg Avg	Chg Rank
tOSU	1.00	1	-	1	1	0	1.62	2	0.62	1
UW	2.07	2	0.27	2	3	1	1.62	1	(0.46)	-1
PSU	2.93	3	0.47	2	4	2	4.23	4	1.30	1
M	4.71	4	0.99	3	7	4	5.46	5	0.75	1
MSU	5.21	5	0.70	4	6	2	3.92	3	(1.29)	-2
Iowa	5.64	6	0.84	4	7	3	6.85	7	1.20	1
MD	6.79	7	1.19	4	9	5	7.38	8	0.60	1
IU	8.86	8	1.03	8	11	3	11.77	12	2.91	4
MN	9.43	9	1.34	7	11	4	11.00	11	1.57	2
UNL	9.57	10	1.02	8	11	3	9.62	10	0.04	0
NU	10.00	11	0.96	8	11	3	6.15	6	(3.85)	-5
PU	12.43	12	0.65	12	14	2	9.23	9	(3.20)	-3
RU	13.14	13	0.53	12	14	2	12.77	13	(0.37)	0
ILL	13.43	14	0.85	12	14	2	13.77	14	0.34	0

Various graphical representations of the rankings/votes:
 (https://thumb.ibb.co/iqT99p/B1_GPR_2018_wk2.jpg) (https://ibb.co/iqT99p) (https://thumb.ibb.co/kWynvU/B1_GPR_2018_wk2_dist.jpg) (https://ibb.co/kWynvU) (https://thumb.ibb.co/g3Dy29/B1_GPR_2018_wk2_pre_curr.jpg) (https://ibb.co/g3Dy29) 

Schedule/Performance Chart:

Rank

Team

tOSU

PSU

MSU

Iowa

UNL

ILL

Team

tOSU

n/a

miss

9/29, H

11/24, A

11/10, H

miss

11/17, H

10/6, A

10/13, A

11/3, A

miss

10/20, H

L by 49, A

miss

tOSU

miss

n/a

11/10, H

10/13, H

miss

9/22, H

miss

11/24, A

10/6, A

10/27, H

11/17, H

11/3, A

10/20, A

PSU

9/29, A

11/10, A

n/a

11/3, H

10/13, A

10/27, A

11/24, A

10/20, H

miss

11/17, H

9/21, H

PSU

11/24, H

10/13, A

11/3, A

n/a

10/20, H

miss

10/6, A

11/17, A

miss

9/22, A

9/29, H

miss

11/10, H

miss

MSU

11/10, A

miss

10/13, H

10/20, A

n/a

miss

11/3, H

9/22, H

miss

11/17, H

10/6, A

10/27, A

11/24, A

miss

MSU

Iowa

miss

9/22, A

10/27, H

miss

n/a

10/20, A

10/13, H

10/6, H

11/23, A

11/10, A

11/3, H

miss

11/17, H

Iowa

11/17, A

miss

11/24, H

10/6, H

11/3, A

10/20, H

n/a

11/10, H

9/22, A

miss

10/13, A

10/27, A

10/6, H

miss

10/20, A

11/17, H

9/22, H

10/13, A

11/10, A

n/a

10/26, H

miss

11/24, A

9/29, H

miss

10/13, H

11/24, H

miss

10/6, A

9/22, H

10/26, A

n/a

10/20, H

11/17, A

11/10, A

miss

11/3, H

UNL

11/3, H

10/6, H

miss

9/22, H

11/17, A

11/23, H

miss

10/20, A

n/a

10/13, H

9/29, A

miss

11/10, A

UNL

miss

10/27, A

miss

9/29, A

10/6, H

11/10, H

miss

11/17, A

10/13, A

n/a

L by 4, H

10/20, H

9/21, H

10/20, A

11/17, A

miss

10/27, H

11/3, A

miss

11/24, H

11/10, H

9/29, H

W by 4, A

n/a

miss

10/13, H

W by 49, H

11/3, H

11/17, A

11/10, A

11/24, H

miss

10/13, H

9/29, A

miss

10/20, A

miss

n/a

10/6, A

ILL

miss

10/20, H

9/21, A

miss

11/17,A

10/27, H

miss

11/3, A

11/10, H

11/24, H

10/13, A

10/6, H

n/a

ILL

Team

tOSU

PSU

MSU

Iowa

UNL

ILL

Team

Rank

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 07, 2018, 04:27:03 PM

It will be an interesting weekend in these rankings particularly for those teams ranked #3 through #8:

The two teams tied for 1st/2nd (tOSU and UW) are both huge favorites so they can't prove much this weekend and they certainly shouldn't lose so there should not be much change at the very top of the rankings.

Here is where it gets interesting:

#3 MSU (@ASU),
#4 PSU (@Pitt),
#6 NU (vs Dook), and
#7 Iowa (vs ISU)

all have relatively challenging games so there is a LOT of potential for movement among #3 through #8. Honestly, any of the six could be #3 or #8 or just about anywhere in between in next week's rankings with nothing more than a few mild upsets one way or the other.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: LittlePig on September 09, 2018, 04:24:50 AM

1. OSU
Looking like the dominant team right now

2. Wisc
Great defense. Great running back

3. PSU
Hyde and Jeckl performances in week 1 and week 2. Real team is somewhere in the middle. McSorley is the real deal though. THE QB you want leading your team in the last 2 minutes.

4. MD
Not sure if MD should be this high, but going to give them credit for some decent victories in first 2 weeks.

5. MSU
MSU Probably doesn"t deserve to be this high based on first 2 weeks but willing to give MSU a pass. Traveling to Arizona State for a late night game has always been a tough game for Big Ten teams.

6. Iowa
Iowa has a truly great defensive line and overall good defense, but an equally sucky offense.

7. Mich
It would have been tempting to move Mich higher based on its dominance of WMU, but going to wait to see if they can do it 2 games in a row.

8. Indy
Well, at least they won against an ACC team.

9. NW
NW may have some issues

10. Minn
Beating MWC team by 1 TD, while at home, does not suggest Minn is a great team

11. Neb
Showed some flashes against Col they may be good, but Neb has some issues with QB depth.

12. Rut
As bad as they were against OSU in week 2, at least they had a solid victory in week 1.

13. Pur
After an 0-2 start, and losing to a MAC team, I have no choice but to demote Purdue big time.

14. ILL
Winning but boy they still look awful.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Temp430 on September 09, 2018, 06:27:40 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Maryland
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2018, 07:01:18 AM

1. Ohio State: A Ohio State that plays defense is a very good team. I am thorough impressed by Dwayne Haskins, and the offense has a tough out on their hands going to JerryWorld and TCU. But if the defense stays in position and doesn't get bent on big plays, they will be tough to beat.

2. Wisconsin: Finally got going to put down New Mexico. Nothing surprising here, if you can't stop their run game you might as well go home.

3. Michigan: Offense got uncorked and defense figured it out. A lot like Wisconsin, really, except with probably not as solid up front. Still, run the ball, play defense.

4. Penn State: Also got uncorked a but and looked like a real live team in the second half. But can they put two good halves together?

5. Michigan State: Lived up to the proud B1G tradition of losing in the desert. They have a great QB and a good defense. But gah, they need to run the ball.

6. Iowa: Didn't forget about them this week, and they played some tight defense.

7. Minnesota: Nice win and some solid defense against Fresno.

8. Maryland: A third of their way to bowl eligibility.

9. Nebraska: They fought hard, but mistakes took them out. Hopefully that QB is healthy.

10. Indiana: Well now, Indiana winning with defense.

11. Northwestern: Got a great effort against the Dukies, though I imagine they will end up in the middle of this by the end of the season.

12. Purdue: Nope

13. Rutgers: Ouch

14. Illinois: At least they picked up a win

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: TyphonInc on September 09, 2018, 08:50:48 AM

Good
1. Wisconsin (--) 1st quarter struggles aside, Dominate again
2. Penn State (--) PSU that good or Pitt made that many mistakes?
3. Ohio State (--) soggy wet fun
4. Iowa (+2) controlled the 4th
5. Michigan (--) beating hapless opponents with regularity
6. Michigan State (-2) hard playing late on the left coast
7. Maryland (--) 28 point 4th quarter to pull away

Bad
8. Minnesota (+3) - I'm just making up stuff here, Minnesota is the last team I placed and got sorted here in order for me to keep the +/- 3 guideline in check.
9. Indiana (+3) - held onto a P5 win
10. Nebraska (-3) - entertaining game
11. Northwestern (-3) - paging NW offense
12. Purdue (-2) - not looking good
13. Illinois (+1) - 2-0 is 2-0 baby!
14. Rutgers (-1) - starting my 2018 petition to drop this school

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: SuperMario on September 09, 2018, 10:12:10 AM

Quote from: Temp430 on September 09, 2018, 06:27:40 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Maryland
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers

This looks right.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: iahawk15 on September 09, 2018, 10:29:46 AM

1) OSU (1)

2) Wisconsin (2)

3) PSU (4)

4) MSU (3)

5) Michigan (5)

6) Maryland (6)

7) Iowa (8)

8) Northwestern (7)

9) Indiana (11)

10) Nebraska (10)

11) Minnesota (12)

12) Purdue (9)

13) Rutgers (13)

14) Illinois (14)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2018, 10:56:46 AM

1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Iowa
5. Michigan
6. Michigan State
7. Maryland
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Minnesota
11. Northwestern
12. Purdue
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Big Beef Tacosupreme on September 09, 2018, 04:19:07 PM

I think I will keep it the same as last week.

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Michigan
4. Penn State
5. Maryland
6. Michigan State
7. Nebraska
8. Iowa
9. Northwestern
10. Purdue
11. Minnesota
12. Indiana
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Hawkinole on September 09, 2018, 05:02:45 PM

1. Ohio State (1) (4) Top of the class. Dwayne Haskins is one of the best QBs in NCAA football. 20 for 23 / 233 yards, 4-TDs.
2. Wisconsin (2) (3) Good on both sides of the ball.
3. Penn State (8) (5) They have weapons if they learn how to use them.
4. Indiana (4) (11) #s 4, 5, 6, and 7 are relatively equal.
5. Iowa (5) (6) Defeated a solid Iowa State team, but where is the offense?
6. Michigan State (7) (1) Gave it up at the end as so many Big Ten teams do when playing in the desert.
7. Michigan (9) (2) Just when a team needs a cupcake they got one.
8. Minnesota (11) (9) Defeated a solid Fresno State team.
9. Maryland (10) (14) I am not buying in yet. Texas defeated Tulsa by 1-TD. Maryland struggles with BG until the 4^th Qtr.
10. Northwestern (3) (8) I thought they would defeat Duke. Not impressed today.
11. Nebraska (12) (10) It takes more than a coach to win, and now they probably have some QB depth issues that will be on display.
12. Rutgers (13) (13) Rutgers scored on Ohio State, but not much else good this week.
13. Purdue (6) (7) Ouch! Lost again.
14. Illinois (14) (12) Still undefeated, but struggled much of the game against an FCS team.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: MaximumSam on September 09, 2018, 05:48:01 PM

S&P+

1. OSU (2)
2. Wisconsin (7)
3. Michigan (9)
4. PSU (15)
5. MSU (28)
6. Nebraska (29)
7. Indiana (44)
8. Minnesota (49)
9. Iowa (51)
10. Maryland (52)
11. Purdue (62)
12. Northwestern (72)
13. Illinois (77)
14. Rutgers (101)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 09, 2018, 06:02:38 PM

1 Ohio State - Near perfect performance against a Divisional opponent

2 Penn State - Blew out a rival on the road

3 Wisconsin - jury still out until @Iowa

4 Maryland - wound up putting a pretty good licking on BG, as an encore to their Texas performance

5 Iowa - Big rivalry win against what should be a strong Cyclone team

6 Michigan - beat the top Michigan Mac team like a drum

7 Michigan State - can't ding 'em too bad for losing @ASU in the wee hours of the morn

8 Indiana - lost in the shuffle is Indiana's win over Virginia

9 Northwestern - and, back to Earth

10 Nebraska - lost to a team that has zero chance of winning the Pac South

11 Minnesota - underwhelming 2-0, but 2-0 nonetheless

12 Illinois - just win baby

13 Rutgers - Brutal performance

14 Purdue - Winless, Lost to Eastern Michigan

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 09, 2018, 07:45:28 PM

UW drops another spot in the AP poll today.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: ohio1317 on September 10, 2018, 12:55:05 AM

1. (1)Ohio State: Offense looks incredible and defense much better this week. We'll see how they with a much higher level of competition this week.
2. (2) Wisconsin: Continue to be solid and heavy favorite to win the west outright.
3. (5) Penn State: Needed to see if week 1 was just first week issues or sign of things. Now appears to just be first week things and they have a solid win from last week.
4 (3). Michigan: Did everything right, just lowered them because Penn State grew on me a bit more.
5. (4) Michigan State: Tough playing west coast at night for Big Ten teams. Seems to have been that way a long time. Still concerning for experienced team though, especially offense.
6. (8) Iowa: Probably too high after a game offense was not great in. Still, defense great and a decent win over Iowa State who always wants this game bad.
7. (7) Maryland: Too big of a struggle for too long vs. Bowling Green, but pulled way and now 2-0.
8. (9) Nebraska: Weird putting up after a loss, but looked a lot better in loss than others. Think the Scott Frost era is going to work nicely.
9. (11) Minnesota: Possibly underrated win. Maybe too high.
10. (6) Northwestern: Loss to Duke definitely raises more red flags than a week ago. Still, very Northwestern-esque to struggle early and come on late.
11. (12) Indiana: Won a game vs. ACC opponent. Maybe too low here.
12. (10) Purdue: Ended last year with a lot of excitement. Not starting this year the same.
13. (13) Rutgers: Have had far less luck vs. Ohio State since joining the conference than they should. Should improve, but did not look good Saturday.
14. (14) Illinois: They are 2-0, but could easily see them finishing 2-10.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 07:53:00 AM

Ohio State: Perhaps the defensive lapses in the opener were just first game issues and nothing to get overly concerned about?
Wisconsin: Still looking consistently solid.
Penn State: Perhaps the issues in the ApState game were just first game issues and nothing to get overly concerned about?
Michigan: Perhaps Notre Dame is really good and losing at their place was no big deal?
Michigan State: I'm not going to penalize a team too much for losing in the middle of the night out West.
Iowa: Looking good but not great.
Maryland: I have two concerns that are keeping me from ranking them higher: First, although the 45-14 final over BG looks great, they were trailing deep in the third before exploding for five unanswered TD's in the last 20 minutes. Second, just how good (or not) is Texas?
Indiana: I'm impressed with their win over UVA.
Nebraska: Perhaps Colorado is pretty good?
Minnesota: Perhaps they can row the boat to Bowl Eligibility or more?
Northwestern: The combination of losing at home to Dook and of their previous opponent looking dreadful really knocks down the Wildcats.
Purdue: Perhaps they are still better than the last two?
Rutgers: Perhaps they are still better than . . .
Illinois: Perhaps there is a new coach next year?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: fezzador on September 10, 2018, 08:39:35 AM

1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Penn State
4) Michigan State
5) Michigan
6) Iowa
7) Maryland
8) Indiana
9) Minnesota
10) Nebraska
11) Northwestern
12) Purdue
13) Rutgers
14) Illinois

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 08:51:28 AM

Something I thought I would throw out there:

For anyone who is unfamiliar with this and thinks that it is an exercise in homerism, it isn't. So far there are 12 votes:

Ohio State has 11 first place votes. The one person who did NOT vote them #1 is an Ohio State fan who has them third behind UW and PSU.
Wisconsin has 10 second place votes. One of the two people who does NOT have them #2 is a Wisconsin fan who has them third behind tOSU and PSU.
Penn State has mostly (7 out of 12) third place votes. Three people have them at #2 and one of the three did so at the expense of his own team. Two people have them at #4 and one of those is the only PSU fan to have voted so far.

This is NOT uncommon. I typically see things like this when I compile the votes.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2018, 08:52:59 AM

So we're a bunch of sandbaggers then?

:86:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on September 10, 2018, 09:21:04 AM

LOL, Medina, you've always been a tough grader when it comes to the Terrapins. I'll know Maryland has arrived when there aren't so many "yeah but"s in your evaluations. (I remember in July when you and I talked about how you had the Texas game in the impossible win column).

Go Buckeyes!

ETA: I don't think they should be any higher than you have them, actually...

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 10, 2018, 11:49:28 AM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 08:51:28 AM

Something I thought I would throw out there:

For anyone who is unfamiliar with this and thinks that it is an exercise in homerism, it isn't. So far there are 12 votes:

Ohio State has 11 first place votes. The one person who did NOT vote them #1 is an Ohio State fan who has them third behind UW and PSU.
Wisconsin has 10 second place votes. One of the two people who does NOT have them #2 is a Wisconsin fan who has them third behind tOSU and PSU.
Penn State has mostly (7 out of 12) third place votes. Three people have them at #2 and one of the three did so at the expense of his own team. Two people have them at #4 and one of those is the only PSU fan to have voted so far.
This is NOT uncommon. I typically see things like this when I compile the votes.

It isn't just us. The same phenomenon occurs on other boards, for other sports.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: ELA on September 10, 2018, 12:18:43 PM

Last week in parenthesis...

OHIO STATE (2) - I think Haskins will end up being the best NFL prospect Urban has ever had
WISCONSIN (1) - took a minute to wake up
PENN STATE (4) - silenced any concerns following the Appy State scare
IOWA (6) - really surprised at how little they got from the offense
MICHIGAN (7) - amazing how much better things look when you get your run game going
MICHIGAN STATE (3) - a loss there was predictable/forgivable, but the OL and red zone concerns are now legitimate issues
MARYLAND (8) - Bowling Green is horrible, but Maryland totally buried them
MINNESOTA (11) - that Fresno State win is a LOT better than people are crediting them with
INDIANA (12) - Virginia ain't special, but it's a Power 5 win
NORTHWESTERN (5) - where did the offense go?
NEBRASKA (10) - probably a more forgivable loss than Northwestern's but can't move them up until we know if Adrian Martinez is playing going forward
PURDUE (9) - 0-2, both at home, both to teams that look lousy, maybe a dose of reality for how big the rebuild is
RUTGERS (13) - at least they scored?
ILLINOIS (14) - worst 2-0 team in the country?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on September 10, 2018, 01:35:18 PM

1) Ohio State

2) Wisconsin

3) Penn State

4) Michigan

5) Michigan State

6) Iowa

7) Minnesota

8) Northwestern

9) Maryland

10) Indiana

11) Nebraska

12) Purdue

13) Rutgers

14) Illinois

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 03:14:49 PM

Quote from: JerseyTerrapin on September 10, 2018, 09:21:04 AM

LOL, Medina, you've always been a tough grader when it comes to the Terrapins. I'll know Maryland has arrived when there aren't so many "yeah but"s in your evaluations. (I remember in July when you and I talked about how you had the Texas game in the impossible win column).

Go Buckeyes!

ETA: I don't think they should be any higher than you have them, actually...

I am impressed with that win but we'll learn a lot this week when Texas hosts USC. I'm also eagerly anticipating Maryland at Michigan in early October.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 03:18:36 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 10, 2018, 11:49:28 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2018, 08:52:59 AM
So we're a bunch of sandbaggers then?

:86:

It isn't just us. The same phenomenon occurs on other boards, for other sports.

Some of it might be sandbagging but I think there are at least two other factors:
First, I think that most of us don't want to be perceived as homers so sometimes I think a lot of posters basically push their own team down a spot when in doubt (this could also be sandbagging).
Second, I think we see the flaws in our own teams more clearly than we see the flaws in other teams.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 03:21:54 PM

I'll wait a bit to see if we get a few more votes before I post results but I will say that, so far, four distinct groups have emerged:

The top teams: Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State (all within 1.80 of each other)

The upper-middle: Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland (all within 2.00 of each other)

The lower-middle: Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern (all within 1.20 of each other)

The bottom teams: Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois (all within 1.20 of each other)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: mcwterps1 on September 10, 2018, 03:36:37 PM

Maryland in a nutshell this weekend....

10 penalties in the first half took us out of the endzone once for sure, and maybe another.

Most were on offense. That worries me due to lack of discipline / Durkin not there.

BG put up 24 on Oregon at Oregon and almost 400 yards. Maryland held them, in their first home game, to less than 160.

Defense allowed only 15 yards rushing, which isn't amazing given they run an air raid offense, but they had 1 guy with over 100 last week.

I think we threw it once in the 2nd half. The RB's ran the score up. Obviously, BG's defense is terrible.

Texas does not look that great still, sadly.

However, Temple may be worse, and Minnesota at Maryland could be trouble for Minny.

Brooks is a freaking beast at LB. Great nose for the ball and game.

All the starters and main contributors are top notch in my opinion, but behind them, very inexperienced.

Like I've said before, if the QB's stay healthy, they can be very good.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Entropy on September 10, 2018, 04:21:43 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 03:21:54 PM

I'll wait a bit to see if we get a few more votes before I post results but I will say that, so far, four distinct groups have emerged:

The top teams: Ohio State, Wisconsin, and Penn State (all within 1.80 of each other)

The upper-middle: Michigan, Michigan State, Iowa, Maryland (all within 2.00 of each other)

The lower-middle: Indiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern (all within 1.20 of each other)

The bottom teams: Purdue, Rutgers, Illinois (all within 1.20 of each other)

This is how I see it as well. I think UNL is top of that lower middle, maybe even in the upper middle by end of the year with a healthy QB. Else.... Lower Middle. while the news was good today, I think we need to see how his knee really responds before changing.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: SFBadger96 on September 10, 2018, 04:22:43 PM

1) Ohio State: as expected, and until someone knocks them off.
2) Wisconsin: still not proving anything.
3) Penn State: that's a beating. And they are 2-0.
4) Michigan State: tough call between this and their sibling school. Tough road loss, but predictable with a late start time in a different time zone.
5) Michigan: arguably above the sibling school. A big win is a win, even against directional Michigan. And a Notre Dame loss might be better than an Arizona State loss (it also might not).
6) Iowa: 2-0, still Iowa.
7) Maryland: !?! 2-0 and have done as much as any program in the conference to date.
8) Nebraska: Colorado might be pretty good. But a loss is a loss, especially at home.
9) Minnesota: Fresno State probably isn't what Pat Hill made it, but still 2-0.
10) Indiana: 2-0 and beat a Power 5 team.
11) Illinois: 2-0 has to be worth something.
12) Northwestern: kicked around by Duke at home?
13) Rutgers: 1-1, and getting kicked around by Ohio State isn't surprising.
14) Purdue: Was willing to give the benefit of the doubt against Northwestern last week, but losing to directional Michigan and with Northwestern losing to Duke? Not good.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2018, 04:54:52 PM

Quote from: SFBadger96 on September 10, 2018, 04:22:43 PM

5) Michigan: arguably above the sibling school. A big win is a win, even against directional Michigan. And a Notre Dame loss might be better than an Arizona State loss (it also might not).

I was thinking about this, and as I was I couldn't help but remember how crappy ND looked against the State of Ball on Saturday. At this point we don't know Jack.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 05:09:43 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 10, 2018, 04:54:52 PM

I was thinking about this, and as I was I couldn't help but remember how crappy ND looked against the State of Ball on Saturday. At this point we don't know Jack.

I thought about that as well and I agree with your conclusion, we don't know jack. Notre Dame looking bad against Ball State could be because Notre Dame (and by extension Michigan) isn't any good or it could just be a "hangover" effect for the Irish coming off of a big win over a rival.
I think for the first four to five weeks at least that these rankings are in a state of flux because we really don't know all that much. Once you get close to half way into the season it is a lot easier to assess things like Michigan's close loss at ND, MSU's close loss at ASU, UMD's close win at Texas, etc.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: ELA on September 10, 2018, 05:19:16 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 05:09:43 PM

I think for the first four to five weeks at least that these rankings are in a state of flux because we really don't know all that much. Once you get close to half way into the season it is a lot easier to asses things like Michigan's close loss at ND, MSU's close loss at ASU, UMD's close win at Texas, etc.

We never struggle to be asses

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 05:38:17 PM

Took less than 10 minutes to take advantage of my misspelling of assess.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 09:24:55 PM

Results posted, votes through SFBadger (16 votes).

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: FearlessF on September 10, 2018, 09:37:00 PM

Couldn't find my ranking from last week. Probably for the best

1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Maryland
8. Indiana
9. Nebraska
10. Northwestern
11. Minnesota
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Benthere2 on September 11, 2018, 07:10:49 AM

1. Wisconsin
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Iowa
5. Michigan
6. Maryland
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Minnesota
10. Northwestern
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Purdue
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 07:16:09 AM

I added Fearless' and Benthere's votes. The only significant change is that RU and ILL are now tied for 13th/14th.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 07:38:09 AM

I noticed something interesting about Wisconsin and Ohio State. As always, with teams from opposite divisions who do not play each other, they will have six common opponents (the three B1G-W teams that tOSU plays and the three B1G-E teams that UW plays). What I noticed is that due to scheduling they will not have ANY common opponents until November:

On November 3 they will get their first two common opponents: Wisconsin will host Rutgers whom tOSU already hosted and Ohio State will host Nebraska whom UW will host in early October.
On November 10 they will get their third common opponent: Wisconsin will travel to Penn State whom tOSU will visit in late September.
On November 17 they will get their fourth common opponent: Wisconsin will travel to Purdue whom tOSU will visit in October.
On November 24 they will get their fifth and sixth common opponents: Ohio State will host Michigan whom UW will visit in Octover and Wisconsin will host Minnesota whom tOSU will host in October.

It is going to be hard to rank the Buckeyes and Badgers relative to each other until mid-to-late November because we are not going to have any direct comparisons for a while.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: TyphonInc on September 11, 2018, 09:03:36 AM

So looking at the charts, it's unanimous that OSU is #1, 'cept for that one @ss who has them at 3?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 10:24:11 AM

1. OSU (1,1)
2. UW (2,4)

----

3. PSU (7,6)
4. Michigan (4,3)
5. Iowa (5,5)
6. MSU (3,2)
7. Maryland (6,9)

--

8. Northwestern (8,8)
9. Purdue (9,7)
10. Nebraska (10,10)
11. Indiana (11,11)
12. Minnesota (12,12)
13. Rutgers (13,13)
14. Illinois (14,14)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 10:52:20 AM

Next time Medina should ask us not to submit our vote until Monday afternoon.

That way they'd all be in by Monday morning.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2018, 11:53:56 AM

Quote from: TyphonInc on September 11, 2018, 09:03:36 AM

So looking at the charts, it's unanimous that OSU is #1, 'cept for that one @ss who has them at 3?

2 of us have the Bucks at #2

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: TyphonInc on September 11, 2018, 12:20:21 PM

Quote from: FearlessF on September 11, 2018, 11:53:56 AM

2 of us have the Bucks at #2

page 2 voters... :73:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: FearlessF on September 11, 2018, 12:48:58 PM

I don't feel tardy

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:03:36 PM

Quote from: TyphonInc on September 11, 2018, 09:03:36 AM

So looking at the charts, it's unanimous that OSU is #1, 'cept for that one @ss who has them at 3?

Who could that be? LoL
As Fearless pointed out, after I did the compilation there were two votes for tOSU at #2.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:07:31 PM

Quote from: TyphonInc on September 11, 2018, 12:20:21 PM

page 2 voters... :73:

Tell me about it! I have to go redo the compilation.
I already added @FearlessF (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=10) and @Benthere2 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=36) and I have now added @Anonymous Coward (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1513) .
Anonymous voted Minnesota #12 which is their new lowest vote and he voted Purdue #9 which is their new highest vote. His vote also broke the 13/14 tie between Rutgers and Illinois so that Rutgers is back to being alone in 13th and Illinois is back to being alone in 14th. Other than that, no significant changes so I will not be posting a new compilation but these late votes are included in the totals used going forward such that Ohio State no longer has a 1.00 average.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:15:57 PM

B1G-E compared to B1G-W:

East 1.12, West 1.94: East by 0.82
East 2.94, West 5.53: East by 2.59
East 4.65, West 9.59: East by 4.94
East 5.35, West 9.65: East by 4.30
East 6.76, West 9.88: East by 3.12
East 8.88, West 12.35: East by 3.47
East 13.24, West 13.29: East by 0.05

Obviously a lot will change over the course of the season but at present we appear to believe that the East is substantially stronger, particularly in the middle where the East's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (M, MSU, UMD) are ranked far ahead of the West's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (MN, UNL, NU).

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 04:17:18 PM

I'd recommend moving the deadline until Noon Tuesday, and shutting it down after that.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 04:20:13 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 04:17:18 PM

I'd recommend moving the deadline until Noon Tuesday, and shutting it down after that.

Why so early?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 04:25:17 PM

He likes to compile on Monday as it stands now, and I'm suggesting bumping that out to Noon on Tuesday. Then he can compile just one time instead of 6 times. It's a lot of work for him.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 04:27:03 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:15:57 PM

B1G-E compared to B1G-W:
East 1.12, West 1.94: East by 0.82
East 2.94, West 5.53: East by 2.59
East 4.65, West 9.59: East by 4.94
East 5.35, West 9.65: East by 4.30
East 6.76, West 9.88: East by 3.12
East 8.88, West 12.35: East by 3.47
East 13.24, West 13.29: East by 0.05

Obviously a lot will change over the course of the season but at present we appear to believe that the East is substantially stronger, particularly in the middle where the East's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (M, MSU, UMD) are ranked far ahead of the West's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (MN, UNL, NU).

That fits our longstanding bias. I think it's probably based in reality, but I do wonder if we'll be accidentally slow to appreciate it *when* the west eventually lifts itself.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 04:31:46 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 04:17:18 PM

I'd recommend moving the deadline until Noon Tuesday, and shutting it down after that.

I hadn't noticed that. Sorry, medina if that's been a drag. Tuesday seems tough, though. I actually thought I had voted early this week.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:58:18 PM

Week three is the last week before most teams start playing conference games every week. In week three #5 MSU is off while the other 13 B1G teams each have OOC match-ups. Next week #11 NU is off while there are five conference games (10 teams) and the other three have OOC match-ups. Looking at this week's match-ups:

Ohio State travels to Jerry-World in Arlington Texas to play what was originally supposed to be a TCU home game. The Horned Frogs are ranked #15 and they are the only ranked B1G opponent this week so this is the game-of-the-week pretty much by default. TCU is a tough enough opponent that the Buckeyes could lose and also a good enough opponent that the Buckeyes have an opportunity to prove something which they really didn't their first two times out.
Wisconsin hosts BYU. When scheduled this and last year's match-up were supposed to be Wisconsin's "marquee" OOC games for the years but it hasn't worked out that way. BYU was awful last year and so far this year they look even worse. They squeaked past an Arizona team that then got mauled by Houston then lost to a California team whose other game was a close win over perennial Bottom Ten (http://sports-ak.espn.go.com/college-football/story/_/page/bottom091118/bottom-10-pays-tribute-burt-reynolds) resident UNC.
Penn State hosts perennial Bottom Ten resident State of Kent in a game that provides the Nittany Lions no opportunity to prove anything. If you are wondering why Kent is currently out of the bottom ten it is because they beat an FCS foe last week. Don't worry, they'll be back.
Michigan hosts perennial Bottom Ten resident SMU in a tune-up.
MSU is off which is only marginally easier than the games most of the conference is playing this week.
Iowa hosts Northern Iowa in a game they certainly shouldn't lose, but it is Iowa and they seem to be good at finding ways to win at least one they shouldn't win and lose at least one they shouldn't lose every year.
Maryland hosts Temple which is 0-2 and on the Bottom 10 waiting list.
Indiana hosts State of Ball which is no stranger to the Bottom 10 and whose lone victory this year was over an FCS foe in week one. State of Ball did manage to finish within eight points of the Irish last week but that took a FG with 1:30 to go so it isn't like they were competitive throughout.
Minnesota hosts Miami, OH which is also no stranger to the Bottom 10.
Nebraska hosts Troy and as sad as this is, I think that Troy is probably the third best team any of the B1G is playing this week.
Northwestern hosts Akron and if there isn't too much lightning hopefully they'll actually play!
Purdue hosts Mizzou this week and I'm thinking that if they can't win this one their bowl hopes will be gone before the end of September.
Rutgers travels to Kansas this week. They are the only B1G team with a true road game this week but it is Kansas and the Jayhawks have been a near-permanent resident in the Bottom 10 for years.
Illinois hosts South Florida this week. The Illini are 2-0 but we still have them in 14th place.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 05:04:38 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 04:31:46 PM

I hadn't noticed that. Sorry, medina if that's been a drag. Tuesday seems tough, though. I actually thought I had voted early this week.

Eh, it is ok. I prefer to have the votes by Monday if possible but adding in a straggler or two isn't all that bad.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 05:05:57 PM

If anyone can handle a spreadsheet related curve ball, it's Medina.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 05:09:21 PM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 04:27:03 PM

That fits our longstanding bias. I think it's probably based in reality, but I do wonder if we'll be accidentally slow to appreciate it *when* the west eventually lifts itself.

Illinois was 0-3 against the East last year (0-6 against the West)
Iowa was 1-2 (4-2)
Minnesota was 0-3 (2-4)
Nebraska was 1-2 (2-4)
Northwestern was 2-1 (5-1)
Purdue was 1-2 (3-3)
Wisconsin was 3-0 (6-0)

Only NU and UW had a winning record against the East, so yeah, there is work to be done. Looking at you, Nebraska, and you, Iowa, in particular. Although Iowa did have that 1 win against the East that probably kept the B1G out of the playoff last year...

The divisions look fairly even at the very top, although OSU is considered elite and UW is not. From there, I'd say it's still fairly even at the #2/3 spots (Iowa and NU in the West, PSU and MSU in the East). From there it kinda gets REALLY ugly though, until you get down to the very bottom (UI and RU) of each division. Those are mid-level MAC teams, at best.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 05:11:54 PM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 05:05:57 PM

If anyone can handle a spreadsheet related curve ball, it's Medina.

Yeah, no shit. It's just a matter of respecting the guy's time, in my mind. He does us all a favor, ya know?

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: LittlePig on September 11, 2018, 05:54:24 PM

Interesting that there is no real consensus on Indiana, with rankings all the way from #4 to #12, which is a range of 8.

No other team has a range bigger than 5.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: LittlePig on September 11, 2018, 05:58:31 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 04:15:57 PM

B1G-E compared to B1G-W:
East 1.12, West 1.94: East by 0.82
East 2.94, West 5.53: East by 2.59
East 4.65, West 9.59: East by 4.94
East 5.35, West 9.65: East by 4.30
East 6.76, West 9.88: East by 3.12
East 8.88, West 12.35: East by 3.47
East 13.24, West 13.29: East by 0.05

Obviously a lot will change over the course of the season but at present we appear to believe that the East is substantially stronger, particularly in the middle where the East's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (M, MSU, UMD) are ranked far ahead of the West's third, fourth, and fifth best teams (MN, UNL, NU).

Purdue and NW tanking this week will do that. Both were ranked much higher before last week. If those 2 can recover and get back to pre-season expectations, the west might not look so bad.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 06:06:15 PM

Quote from: LittlePig on September 11, 2018, 05:54:24 PM

Interesting that there is no real consensus on Indiana, with rankings all the way from #4 to #12, which is a range of 8.

No other team has a range bigger than 5.

Just to clarify, Indiana's #4 vote is an extreme outlier. They have:

one vote for #4
nine votes for #8
three votes for #9
three votes for #10
two votes for #11
one vote for #12

The only other team with non-contiguous votes is Purdue which has:

one vote for #9
one vote for #10
nine votes for #12
six votes for #13
two votes for #14

Note that Purdue has no votes for #11 but the gap for Indiana is MUCH bigger. They have no votes for #5, #6, or #7.

FWIW: I'm not saying that @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) is wrong with his #4 vote for Indiana. The Hoosiers are 2-0 and could be that good. However, I don't think so and no other voter thinks so either. The rest of us all have them #8 - #12. Also, he did state in his ranking that he felt that #4 through #7 were all about the same and a #7 vote wouldn't have been nearly such an outlier.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: iahawk15 on September 11, 2018, 06:26:45 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 05:09:21 PM

Illinois was 0-3 against the East last year (0-6 against the West)
Iowa was 1-2 (4-2)
Minnesota was 0-3 (2-4)
Nebraska was 1-2 (2-4)
Northwestern was 2-1 (5-1)
Purdue was 1-2 (3-3)
Wisconsin was 3-0 (6-0)

Only NU and UW had a winning record against the East, so yeah, there is work to be done. Looking at you, Nebraska, and you, Iowa, in particular. Although Iowa did have that 1 win against the East that probably kept the B1G out of the playoff last year...

The divisions look fairly even at the very top, although OSU is considered elite and UW is not. From there, I'd say it's still fairly even at the #2/3 spots (Iowa and NU in the West, PSU and MSU in the East). From there it kinda gets REALLY ugly though, until you get down to the very bottom (UI and RU) of each division. Those are mid-level MAC teams, at best.

Well, Iowa did play the top 3 teams in the East last year. Won one, and lost another on the last play of the game.
FTR, UW also posted a losing record vs teams in the East Top 3 (0-1) in 2017.

Additionally, looking back just one year further, UW posted a losing record vs the East (1-2), including 0-2 vs teams in the Top 3.

Perhaps instead of looking around, we should all look inward.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 09:10:52 PM

I prefer to look forward rather than backward.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 09:35:06 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 05:11:54 PM

Yeah, no shit. It's just a matter of respecting the guy's time, in my mind. He does us all a favor, ya know?

Yes. I can't extend my gratitude enough, for Medina allowing us the use of his analytical brain.
Not just this, but breaking down the various tie breakers, and telling us what would need to happen in order for a team to win their division no matter how absurd it may be.
Plus basketball season, which teams only play once and where that game will take place, projecting wins and losses based on his tier system, the Big Ten Tourney tie breakers, what needs to happen in order for two teams to wind up on the same branch of the bracket, and so forth.
I don't know if he memorizes all that stuff, or programs it all into a series of spreadsheets. Either way, amazing talent. Thanks again for sharing it with us.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: iahawk15 on September 11, 2018, 10:31:15 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 09:10:52 PM

I prefer to look forward rather than backward.

By referencing last year?

(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.reactiongifs.com%2Fr%2Fnnsns.gif&hash=4566a08d43504e2f8a641b6861d6539c)

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 10:44:55 PM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 11, 2018, 09:10:52 PM

I prefer to look forward rather than backward.

Not to pick nits, but 2017 and 2016 both require a glance backward

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 10:48:36 PM

Mega-tangential sidelight about that "looking backward" thing:

Though its a common western theme to treat our relationship with the past/present/future as if we are standing in the present, looking at the future, with our backs to the pasts, which is consistent with the arrow of time, many cultures use the opposite metaphor - that because they have access to the past but cannot see the future, it's more appropriate to think of themselves as walking backwards into the future, staring at the past.

This is neat to me.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Hawkinole on September 12, 2018, 12:00:52 AM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 11, 2018, 06:06:15 PM

FWIW: I'm not saying that @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) is wrong with his #4 vote for Indiana. The Hoosiers are 2-0 and could be that good. However, I don't think so and no other voter thinks so either. The rest of us all have them #8 - #12. Also, he did state in his ranking that he felt that #4 through #7 were all about the same and a #7 vote wouldn't have been nearly such an outlier.

I think I'll have fun with Indiana at least one more week, as they have Ball State, which gave ND a good game Saturday. Indiana is as good as 2-0. I am rewarding good performance. Indiana defeated two FBS teams. Both were 2017 bowl teams.

Hoosier fans will argue after this coming Saturday that Indiana should be state champion, provided they dispatch Purdue.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Hawkinole on September 12, 2018, 12:29:22 AM

Occasionally I view Jeff Sagarin's rankings. https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

He has Ohio State 2nd, and right on Alabama's heels.

Big Ten teams follow:

2 Ohio State
5 Penn State
8 Wisconsin
12 Michigan (He can't see my wisdom in Big Ten #4 Indiana)
14 Iowa
21 Michigan State
40 Maryland
43 Northwestern
46 Minnesota
53 Nebraska
63 Indiana
71 Purdue
93 Illinois
107 Rutgers

Others of interest (to me):

23 Notre Dame
29 North Dakota State (They beat FBS team #178 Cal Poly, hmm.)
33 Florida State

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2018, 07:21:13 AM

Quote from: Anonymous Coward on September 11, 2018, 10:44:55 PM

Not to pick nits, but 2017 and 2016 both require a glance backward

Looking forward always requires historical knowledge.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on September 12, 2018, 09:00:46 AM

This conversation leaves me looking askance at all of you.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Entropy on September 12, 2018, 09:56:36 AM

tough to play a ball state the week after an emotional win.. We should know more after next week

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: FearlessF on September 12, 2018, 10:00:22 AM

we all know a little more after each week

and at the end of the season we still don't know jack

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: JerseyTerrapin on September 12, 2018, 10:14:25 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 09:35:06 PM

Yes. I can't extend my gratitude enough, for Medina allowing us the use of his analytical brain.
Not just this, but breaking down the various tie breakers, and telling us what would need to happen in order for a team to win their division no matter how absurd it may be.
Plus basketball season, which teams only play once and where that game will take place, projecting wins and losses based on his tier system, the Big Ten Tourney tie breakers, what needs to happen in order for two teams to wind up on the same branch of the bracket, and so forth.
I don't know if he memorizes all that stuff, or programs it all into a series of spreadsheets. Either way, amazing talent. Thanks again for sharing it with us.

Yeah, I decided a long time ago that Medina is one of the smartest people I've ever "met." Thanks, man, you helped me learn to speak B1Gese...

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: mcwterps1 on September 12, 2018, 10:49:08 AM

Quote from: Hawkinole on September 12, 2018, 12:29:22 AM

Occasionally I view Jeff Sagarin's rankings. https://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/sagarin/

He has Ohio State 2nd, and right on Alabama's heels.

Big Ten teams follow:

2 Ohio State
5 Penn State
8 Wisconsin
12 Michigan (He can't see my wisdom in Big Ten #4 Indiana)
14 Iowa
21 Michigan State
40 Maryland
43 Northwestern
46 Minnesota
53 Nebraska
63 Indiana
71 Purdue
93 Illinois
107 Rutgers

Others of interest (to me):

23 Notre Dame
29 North Dakota State (They beat FBS team #178 Cal Poly, hmm.)
33 Florida State

You're not allowed to use those for anything though.
In the bylaws.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 11:42:37 AM

Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on September 11, 2018, 09:35:06 PM

Yes. I can't extend my gratitude enough, for Medina allowing us the use of his analytical brain.
Not just this, but breaking down the various tie breakers, and telling us what would need to happen in order for a team to win their division no matter how absurd it may be.
Plus basketball season, which teams only play once and where that game will take place, projecting wins and losses based on his tier system, the Big Ten Tourney tie breakers, what needs to happen in order for two teams to wind up on the same branch of the bracket, and so forth.
I don't know if he memorizes all that stuff, or programs it all into a series of spreadsheets. Either way, amazing talent. Thanks again for sharing it with us.
Quote from: JerseyTerrapin on September 12, 2018, 10:14:25 AM
Yeah, I decided a long time ago that Medina is one of the smartest people I've ever "met." Thanks, man, you helped me learn to speak B1Gese...

Thank you both.
As far as tiebreakers that is mostly just going to the B1G website and working through them. I find those to be fun logic problems. When you do that a few times you quickly learn that details that seem minute can be huge. For example, in the B1G there is a rule for multi-team ties that if all but two are eliminated you go back to H2H for those two.
FWIW: the basketball tier system isn't mine. It was a site thing that I think @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) started, I just put it into a projection. Before I found that here I had a similar system that I used myself. Mine didn't have tiers, I just ranked the teams (1 to 11 back then) and then projected that the home team would always win unless the road team was at least three spots higher. Example:

I projected that #1, #2, and #3 would win all home games.
I projected that #4 would lose a home game against #1 and win all the others, etc.

I came up with that because I always hated how the idiots on TV would talk about how Ohio State was really slumping or surging based on a few losses or wins that were pretty obviously predictable. The tier system and my system eliminated that because we compare to projections instead of just looking at W's and L's as if they were all created equal.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 11:46:29 AM

Quote from: mcwterps1 on September 12, 2018, 10:49:08 AM

You're not allowed to use those for anything though.
In the bylaws.

Oh you can use whatever you like. Go ahead and post rankings if you want, just don't get so upset when people question your rankings. There are a few things that you need to realize:

It takes a while for us to get used to your system. For example, IIRC, you start out treating all wins as better than all losses. I disagree. If Maryland had lost in OT to Bama back in week one while MSU and PSU were barely escaping teams that they should have throttled I would have considered Maryland's performance to be better than MSU's and PSU's. Now that I know that you do that consistently it doesn't make me ask questions.
If your system seems to always favor your team then yeah, people are going to call that out.
Anytime your vote is an extreme outlier (see @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) above) you are likely to get questioned about it.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 11:52:14 AM

FWIW:
The sagrin rankings that @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) posted above are pretty close to ours with only two exceptions:

We both have tOSU at #1.
He has PSU at #2, we have them at #3.
He has UW at #3, we them at #2.
We both have M at #4.
He has Iowa at #5, we have them at #6.
He has MSU at #6, we have them at #5.
We both have UMD at #7.
He has NU at #8, we have them at #11.
We both have MN at #9.
We both have UNL at #10.
He has IU at #11, we have them at #8.
We both have PU at #12.
He has IL at #13, we have them at #14.
He has RU at #14, we have them at #13.

So Sagrin has Northwestern a lot higher and Indiana a lot lower than we do but otherwise we are +/-1.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: TyphonInc on September 12, 2018, 12:21:29 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 10, 2018, 03:18:36 PM

Second, I think we see the flaws in our own teams more clearly than we see the flaws in other teams.

This is the group I fall into. I watch every home game at the stadium, then pour over the DVR rewatching the whole thing again. I typically catch two other games then just watch the highlights for the rest.
Highlights show us the best of a team. Me rewatching Haskins overthrow Campbell and then rewind and do it 6 more times, magnifies the mistakes, on an otherwise impressive day.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 12:23:29 PM

Quote from: iahawk15 on September 11, 2018, 06:26:45 PM

Well, Iowa did play the top 3 teams in the East last year. Won one, and lost another on the last play of the game.
FTR, UW also posted a losing record vs teams in the East Top 3 (0-1) in 2017.

I think this is a difficult metric to use because there are so few games. Looking at what Badge posted:

Illinois was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. 0-season
Nebraska was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. .333 against both
Wisconsin was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. 1.000 against both not counting CG
Northwestern was slightly worse against the B1G-E. They went 2-1 against the East and 5-1 against the West so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game. Note that they had TWO OT wins in B1G-W games, Iowa and Nebraska.
Purdue was worse against the B1G-E. They were 1-2 against the B1G-E and 3-3 against the B1G-W so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.
Minnesota was worse against the B1G-E. They were 0-3 against the East and 2-4 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game. Note that they lost to MSU by a FG and to UMD by a TD.
Iowa was worse against the B1G-E. They were 1-2 against the East and 4-2 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game. As you pointed out they played the three best B1G-E teams, beat the best one and lost the other two by two and seven points.

In addition to it being so few games there is another potential problem with this metric. To explain it, I'll use the example of HS tennis. A friend of mine played HS tennis and you wouldn't think that there would be a lot of cheating in HS tennis but there is. The way it is set up, each team is supposed to have their #1 play the other team's #1, then their #2 play the other team's #2 and their #3 play the other team's #3. The cheating is basically ubiquitous because the easy way to get an advantage is to have your #3 play the other team's #1 then your #1 can play the other team's #2 and your #2 can play the other team's #3. Even if their #1 is better than your #1 and their #2 is better than your #2 and their #3 is better than your #3 you can still get a 2-1 win as long as your #1 is better than their #2 and your #2 is better than their #3.

The same thing can happen here. If the worst teams in the B1G-W play the best teams in the B1G-E then the rest of the B1G-W teams can all potentially play B1G-E teams that are slightly worse than they are even if the B1G-E is better top-to-bottom.

I think in general that these things balance out over enough games but that takes at least 3-4 seasons so looking at single-season results should always be treated as nothing more than a starting point.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Honestbuckeye on September 12, 2018, 12:44:40 PM

Medina is the Bomb.

This place would not be nearly as good without him. The guy knows how to leverage facts an Data.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: LittlePig on September 12, 2018, 03:50:48 PM

I have seen this mistake a couple times in this thread.

Iowa was only 3-3 last year against the West, not 4-2 as reported above, Iowa lost to NW, Wisc, and Purdue last year.

So last year Iowa was only 4-5 in conference overall. Going 1-2 against the East and 3-3 against the West.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 04:04:58 PM

Quote from: LittlePig on September 12, 2018, 03:50:48 PM

I have seen this mistake a couple times in this thread.

Iowa was only 3-3 last year against the West, not 4-2 as reported above, Iowa lost to NW, Wisc, and Purdue last year.

So last year Iowa was only 4-5 in conference overall. Going 1-2 against the East and 3-3 against the West.

I think it was one mistake quoted multiple times. I didn't double-check the originally cited figures.
As for my post that doesn't change a lot. 1-2/3-3 means that they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: iahawk15 on September 12, 2018, 06:11:01 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 12:23:29 PM

I think this is a difficult metric to use because there are so few games. Looking at what Badge posted:
Illinois was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. 0-season
Nebraska was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. .333 against both
Wisconsin was equal against the B1G-E and B1G-W. 1.000 against both not counting CG
Northwestern was slightly worse against the B1G-E. They went 2-1 against the East and 5-1 against the West so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game. Note that they had TWO OT wins in B1G-W games, Iowa and Nebraska.
Purdue was worse against the B1G-E. They were 1-2 against the B1G-E and 3-3 against the B1G-W so they would have been equal if they had lost one more B1G-W game.
Minnesota was worse against the B1G-E. They were 0-3 against the East and 2-4 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game. Note that they lost to MSU by a FG and to UMD by a TD.
Iowa was worse against the B1G-E. They were 1-2 against the East and 4-2 against the West so they would have been equal if they had won one more B1G-E game. As you pointed out they played the three best B1G-E teams, beat the best one and lost the other two by two and seven points.

In addition to it being so few games there is another potential problem with this metric. To explain it, I'll use the example of HS tennis. A friend of mine played HS tennis and you wouldn't think that there would be a lot of cheating in HS tennis but there is. The way it is set up, each team is supposed to have their #1 play the other team's #1, then their #2 play the other team's #2 and their #3 play the other team's #3. The cheating is basically ubiquitous because the easy way to get an advantage is to have your #3 play the other team's #1 then your #1 can play the other team's #2 and your #2 can play the other team's #3. Even if their #1 is better than your #1 and their #2 is better than your #2 and their #3 is better than your #3 you can still get a 2-1 win as long as your #1 is better than their #2 and your #2 is better than their #3.

The same thing can happen here. If the worst teams in the B1G-W play the best teams in the B1G-E then the rest of the B1G-W teams can all potentially play B1G-E teams that are slightly worse than they are even if the B1G-E is better top-to-bottom.

I think in general that these things balance out over enough games but that takes at least 3-4 seasons so looking at single-season results should always be treated as nothing more than a starting point.

I don't mean to undermine your effort, but of course it's a silly metric in such a small sample size. My similarly small sample size was intended to be used as nothing more than suggestion for one to check the fragility of their own house before casting stones at others.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2018, 06:20:59 PM

If you can't see the year-over-year improvement at Madison, I can't help you. The staff is really doing a great job up there.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on September 12, 2018, 08:14:02 PM

Within the division is a little misleading as well. The good teams don't "have to" play themselves, while the bad teams don't "get to" play themselves.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: mcwterps1 on September 12, 2018, 10:22:53 PM

Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on September 12, 2018, 11:46:29 AM

Oh you can use whatever you like. Go ahead and post rankings if you want, just don't get so upset when people question your rankings. There are a few things that you need to realize:
It takes a while for us to get used to your system. For example, IIRC, you start out treating all wins as better than all losses. I disagree. If Maryland had lost in OT to Bama back in week one while MSU and PSU were barely escaping teams that they should have throttled I would have considered Maryland's performance to be better than MSU's and PSU's. Now that I know that you do that consistently it doesn't make me ask questions.
If your system seems to always favor your team then yeah, people are going to call that out.
Anytime your vote is an extreme outlier (see @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) above) you are likely to get questioned about it.

Except this is fake news.
Perhaps it's others perception that a team has been historically bad, so recruiting and performance that can be seen by those closer to the program, is neglected.
I'm very critical of the Terps. However, I can see talent where it's quite obvious from people here, they don't.
But, I just laugh about it and move on.
The NFL picks the talent, not the CFB forum posters.
How a team performs vs another team who may be considered even, or slightly better, is how I used my rankings, and as teams got better or worse, and my team lost, my rankings adjusted throughout the season.
I have no obligation or benefit to "boost" my teams rankings.
I just don't believe in the "eye test".
If I was to go by that, I'd put Maryland up there with Wisconsin, because the outcomes of those games this weekend, were very similar. Down to the slow start, and how they finished.
But, you don't see that. You see "Maryland" and vote accordingly.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2018, 06:50:50 AM

Of course you can see talent - we all can see talent when we use the eye test. I don't think there is any other way to see talent.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: bayareabadger on September 13, 2018, 07:40:18 AM

Quote from: 847badgerfan on September 12, 2018, 06:20:59 PM

If you can't see the year-over-year improvement at Madison, I can't help you. The staff is really doing a great job up there.

My neurotic self demands this year’s improvement start manifesting itself better early in games.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on September 13, 2018, 07:43:08 AM

@mcwterps1 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1590) :

I'm not sure what you think is "fake news".

As I explained, it DID take us some time to get used to yours system. It just did and the same would be true of any new voter particularly one who showed up with a new team. I don't know how you consider this fake?

There were times in past years when you ranked UMD considerably higher than the other voters. As the guy who compiles the votes I know this.

You were questioned about extreme outlier votes just like @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) was this week.

Where is the fake news?

Regarding Maryland, you said "I can see talent where it's quite obvious from people here, they don't."

Do you mean to suggest that we should have Maryland ranked higher than they are now? Maryland currently has:

Two votes for #4
One vote for #5
Two votes for #6
11 votes for #7
One vote for #8
Two votes for #9

FWIW: I am one of the eleven votes for #7. The Terps started out #10 and moved up two spots after beating Texas in week one then another spot after beating Bowling Green on the road in week two. What is holding them back?

IMHO, what is holding them back is that in this like most things in life, the higher you climb the more difficult the climb becomes. Back in the preseason the Terps were ranked #10 and they were closer to #11 (Indiana) and #12 (Minnesota) than they were to #9 (Nebraska). When you are being compared to IU and MN a win over a (then) ranked Texas team is quite impressive. Similarly, the Terps 45-14 road win over BGSU was quite impressive when comparing the Terps to Northwestern and Purdue in week two.

Things get more difficult as you continue to climb because if #1 (Ohio State) or #2 (Wisconsin) were to barely beat a barely ranked team in a quasi-home game (like UMD's win over TX) or trailed a MAC team deep in the third quarter (like UMD did at BG) people wouldn't be impressed. Instead, they would be saying "what the heck is wrong with (Ohio State/Wisconsin) that they were not more dominant against (Texas/Bowling Green)".

I do not believe that any of us have caps or floors based on "helmet" as you suggested with your comment that we "see Maryland and vote accordingly". When I was in school Nebraska was pretty much the biggest helmet of them all and right now we have them closely bunched in with Minnesota and Northwestern for 9th/10th/11th. If we voted based on name alone, we'd have them in a struggle with Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan for 1st/2nd/3rd/4th.

That said, I know that early in the season my votes are impacted by my preseason feelings about each team. I feel that I have to do that because two games simply isn't enough to determine how good or bad a team is. In part this is because nobody knows how good or bad each teams' opponents were. Texas might end up being 12-1 and champions of the Big12 or they might end up 1-11 and a complete doormat. My view of Maryland's 5 point quasi-home win over Texas would be very different in those different possible scenarios.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: 847badgerfan on September 13, 2018, 09:27:06 AM

Quote from: bayareabadger on September 13, 2018, 07:40:18 AM

My neurotic self demands this year’s improvement start manifesting itself better early in games.

Me too, and I think it will as the offense and defense take on more flavor to blend with the vanilla.

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, Week 2
Post by: ELA on September 13, 2018, 10:31:13 AM

Massey composite rankings (56 rankings), with last week in parenthesis...

Alabama (1)
OHIO STATE (2)
Georgia (5)
Oklahoma (3)
PENN STATE (8)
Clemson (4)
WISCONSIN (6)
Auburn (7)
Stanford (10)
Mississippi State (18)
Notre Dame (9)
LSU (11)
Boise State (19)
Virginia Tech (12)
TCU (17)
IOWA (21)
Washington (13)
Oklahoma State (15)
Central Florida (16)
MICHIGAN (23)
Duke (-)
USC (14)
MICHIGAN STATE (20)
NC State (-)
Miami (25)

34. Northwestern (22)
44. Minnesota (52)
50. Maryland (60)
55. Indiana (55)
66. Purdue (54)
73. Nebraska (65)
89. Rutgers (84)
91. Illinois (102)