| New Mexico State Aggies (0-1) at Minnesota Golden Gophers (0-0) |
| 7:00 (Thu) - Minneapolis, MN - BTN |
| While New Mexico State got a one week jump on the season to get the rust off, it's clear that there is much more rust to remove. In their follow up performance to their best season in five decades, the Aggies looked absolutely awful. New Mexico State had their first winning season since 1999, and only their third since 1978. But following a lot of offensive attrition, it's clear that while Doug Martin built a team last year, he is still working on building that program. The Aggies mustered only 135 yards of offense and 7 first downs. 93 of those yards, and 3 first downs came on their final drive of the game, in the last 4 minutes, down 29-0, with Wyoming second team defense on the field. New Mexico State leaned heavily on tailback Larry Rose III last year, and his absence was notable. Jason Huntley had 9 carries for 22 yards, but most notable was that those 9 carries were the only 9 carries of any back all night long. Quarterback Matt Romero was briefly replaced by Nick Jeanty, who fared even worse. The defense fared no better, as any concerns about how Wyoming's offense would fare without Josh Allen quickly subsided when they realized they didn't really need to pass against New Mexico State's non-existent run defense. That's music to P.J. Fleck's ears, where quarterback is a major issue for the Gophers entering 2018. Walkon true freshman Zack Annexstad was so far off the radar going into spring, that neither magazine I picked up even mentioned him being in the race. But here we are. After Wyoming ran 57 times for 5.5 ypc, expect Fleck to give Rodney Smith plenty of touches. After being held in check for the first half of 2017, exceeding 4 ypc only against Middle Tennessee and Purdue (where one run boosted him from 1.9 to 4.2), he ran for 5.1 ypc or more in 5 of the Gophers' last six games. While the Smith-Brooks tandem was supposed to work, Smith actually played better once Brooks was lost for the season to injury. So while you would think Fleck would like to find someone to share some carries, presumably freshman Nolan Edmonds, maybe Smith works best knowing he has that backfield all to himself. |
| MINNESOTA 38, NEW MEXICO STATE 16 |
| Northwestern Wildcats (0-0) at Purdue Boilermakers (0-0) |
| 8:00 (Thu) - West Lafayette, IN - ESPN |
| While I'm generally not a fan of opening with conference games, it's hard not to still get excited to see one. Particularly when it's not your team. Two teams that exceeded expectations in 2017, probably can't wait to kick things off and build on them in 2018. Plenty is at stake too. The winner keeps that momentum rolling, however the loser, already 0-1 in the division before most teams have kicked off, with Iowa and Wisconsin to come, may be out of the race for Indy before Labor Day. It kind of felt weird to say, considering Justin Jackson graduated as the 10th leading rusher in NCAA history, and those players don't exactly grow on trees anywhere, let alone at Northwestern, but even with his graduation, this felt like it could be the most talented team ever at Northwestern. They've had some great teams, some teams that maybe reached above what their ceiling should have been, but on paper this team is probably more talented than '95, '96 or '00. Then the Clayton Thorson injury happened. Fitzgerald rolled with Thorson as a freshman in 2015, when he really, really, really struggled at times, and was willing to grow with him, as his QBR went from 45.7 as a freshman, to 62.3 to 70 last year. Now all of that investment was supposed to pay off, he was being mentioned as a top 10 pick in the 2019 NFL Draft, and he tears his ACL in the Music City Bowl. Fitzgerald listed Thorson OR junior T.J. Green (Trent Green's son, if you want to feel old) as the starter. It seems like he should be healthy, but HOW healthy, and how rusty will he be after getting essentially no offseason. The defense could be really, really good, and Jeremy Larkin looks like a more than adequate replacement for Jackson, but the thing goes as Thorson goes. Purdue's year one results shocked everyone, and may have set the clock ahead a little too far. The rebuild in West Lafayette was major. However, the defense that Brohm inherited was far better than people probably gave it credit for. There was experience and NFL players everywhere, and it all came together last year. For an offensive guru, with two good to great quarterbacks, the Purdue offense was actually pretty terrible, and the defense was vastly underrated. In conference play the Boilermakers were 10th in scoring offense, but 4th in scoring defense. In Year 2 it's time for Brohm's offense to get going, because the graduation of 8 starters on defense, with a lot of bad Hazell classes behind them, means finishing in the top half, let alone top 1/3 of the Big Ten in defense seems like a very tall task. So the offense has to generate a lot more than 20.3 ppg. The overall numbers don't look bad, they just left too many points on the table. Dropped balls. Bad third down conversion rates. My thought is that they have to improve there from Year 1 to Year 2, and that Northwestern now is not the Northwestern we could have seen this year. We may see that Northwestern team later, once Thoron (hopefully) looks more like the top 10 pick he was projected as. But Week 1, on the road, in a conference game. Nah. |
| PURDUE 24, NORTHWESTERN 23 |
| Utah State Aggies (0-0) at #11 Michigan State Spartans (0-0) |
| 7:00 (Fri) - East Lansing, MI - BTN |
| While few were closing the book on the Mark Dantonio era in East Lansing after a disastrous 3-9 2016 season, followed by an arguably worse offseason, the Spartans rebounded to be the surprise of the league, going 10-3, with a Holiday Bowl win, as well as wins over Michigan and Penn State. With the bounceback ahead of schedule, what can a still young Spartans team accomplish in 2018? First is offensive consistency. They have plenty of weapons. Brian Lewerke has put his name on the map under center, L.J. Scott needs to get back to what he has shown at times he can be, but their are a multitude of receiving options, plus four returning starters on the offensive line, three of whom will also be back in 2019. Really the only questions are running back depth and tight end. So why only 24.5 ppg? Maryland, Minnesota, Rutgers and Illinois had well noted offensive issues last year, but Michigan State was one spot ahead of them in scoring. They kept the chains moving, they didn't have negative plays, and they dominated time of possession. But this year there is no excuse not to do more. Mark Dantonio teams are notoriously slow out of the gate, but in years where they had returning starting quarterbacks, with the exception of 2011, they put up big points. With a west coast trip to follow, and a roster that is still woefully thin for a team ranked in the top 15 nationally, there is no reason to play cautious and have your starters still in late in the game. Utah State had an up and down 2017, playing a lot of youth, that is supposed to pay off this year. That's particularly true on offense where 9 starters return, granted from a squad that finished 9th in the Mountain West at only 5.6 ypp, and 10th in overall offensive efficiency. After only getting spot duty over the first half of the season, freshman Jordan Love took over fully in the second half, and never showed the spark he did in extended limited action against Wake Forest and San Jose State. In six games as the #1 quarterback, he only exceeded a Total QBR of 45 once, against UNLV. How much he has to shoulder depends on how quickly Darwin Thompson is up to speed. Utah State graduated their leading rusher, but Thompson was the #1 rated All-Purpose JUCO recruit last year. He's only 5'9, but can be used in more ways than the Aggies were able to use LaJuan Hunt last year, who was third on the team in receptions, but at a measly 6.2 ypc. I expect a slow start, and maybe a 17-7 type game at the half before an experienced offensive line starts to wear down Utah State's front four. If Lewerke gets off to a slow start, that could be concerning, as the only major question mark Utah State has (relatively) is in the secondary. |
| MICHIGAN STATE 45, UTAH STATE 7 |
| Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (0-0) at #4 Wisconsin Badgers (0-0) |
| 9:00 (Fri) - Madison, WI - ESPN |
| Wisconsin came one win away from the program's first College Football Playoff appearance a year ago. While this team, certainly on offense, has more talent than a year ago, the road is a lot tougher this year. Fortunately, not out of the gate. I'm not sure when this game was scheduled, but it likely looked a lot better then, than it does now. If Western Kentucky thought they were immune to coaching transition upheavals, they were wrong. After two decades of Jack Harbaugh and David Elson made the program into one of the best in the FCS, including a national championship in 2002, it has been nothing but constant turnover since reaching the FBS. Including Elson, who coached in their first full FBS season in 2009, Western Kentucky has had five coaches in nine years. Seven if you include interims. From Willie Taggert to Bobby Petrino to Jeff Brohm, the transitions flowed seemlessly, but Year 1 under Mike Sanford Jr. was nothing but. Coming off back to back Conference USA titles and four bowl games in five years, the Hilltoppers stumbled to 6-7, and an uninspiring 6-7 loss in the Cure Bowl to Georgia State. It was the way the season ended that doesn't inspire confidence. Losses in five of the final six, four of which were by double digits, while the lone win required triple overtime. What had become a high flying offense under Brohm, limped along under the 35 year old Mike Sanford. 6-6 really isn't the issue, the issue is 6-6 with an experienced team full of guys who had won two consecutive league titles. A team with 8 senior starters on offense fell from 1st in the nation in ypp in 2016, to 96th in 2017. What is going to happen now with only three returning starters? All interior linemen? Mike White went from mid major darling to totally off the radar, and who knows who follows him. They may look to true freshman Kevaris Thomas, who was rated a 4* recruit by some sites. With no experience around him, you may not want to go right to a true freshman, but 4*s don't come around in Conference USA that often, and maybe the offense is looking ugly enough no matter what that you don't have a choice. The Badgers will be without their top two receivers, which is well documented by now. They won't need them. They probably don't need to pass the ball, other than to get some live reps in. I'd be interested in an over/under on total rushing yards this defense allows Friday night. Bucky was 3rd in the nation last year in run defense. Western Kentucky was dead last in the FBS in run offense. It could get very, very ugly, particularly if Western Kentucky can't even sustain drives, which I don't see how they will. |
| WISCONSIN 53, WESTERN KENTUCKY 0 |
| Oregon State Beavers (0-0) at #5 Ohio State Buckeyes (0-0) |
| NOON - Columbus, OH - ABC |
| If there is any school in America more ready to just play some football, I'd like to see them. After a month of talking about nothing other than off the field stuff, the Buckeyes are ready to roll out a lot of new faces. 5* new faces, but new faces none the less. While this is only the first of three games without Meyer on the sideline, this is the only one he also wasn't involved in the prep for. For those who think the machine is already running, and won't skip a beat, please note how Ohio State's 2011 went when Tressell was removed from his machine. I don't think the drop will be that stark, but I also don't think it's nothing. Fortunately, while the opponent at least has a little bit of Power Five sex appeal, there's not much there. Give or take a Kansas, Oregon State is the worst Power 5 team in the country right now. Gary Andersen actually seemed like a really good fit there, but after resigning midway through 2017, at 7-23 over 2 plus years, it's clear he was not. Oregon State has lost 11 straight FBS games. They haven't won an FBS road game since beating a 2-10 Colorado team on October 4, 2014. The last time they had a road win over an FBS team that finished with a winning record? Arizona, in September of 2012. If you remembered that Oregon State started 2012 at 6-0 and reached #7 in the polls, good for you, I didn't. It's been ugly since. Cory Hall, who finished 2017 as the interim coach, was not retained, and now former Beaver quarterback Jonathan Smith gets his first head coaching job after serving as Chris Petersen's quarterbacks coach and offensive coordinator, first at Boise State, and then at Washington, since 2012. He is a favorite son in Corvallis, a walk-on, who became a four year starter, and was the starting quarterback for the greatest team in program history, the 2000 team, which finished 11-1, winning a Pac 10 title, and crushing Notre Dame in the Fiesta Bowl to finish #4 in the country. He should inject some life into the offense, as they did when they got to Washington, but they have a long way to go, inheriting the worst passing offense in the conference, mustering only 6.5 ypa, to go with under a touchdown per game. It was the fourth consecutive year Oregon State was last in the Pac 12 in pass efficiency. They do return four starters along the offensive line, so that's a good start, but maybe hitting an overall reset button is the best option. I think they will be more exciting, take more risks, but completely overwhelmed talent wise, they are also going to leave themselves vulnerable. I see a higher scoring effort from them than expected, but Ohio State can probably pick their score too. |
| OHIO STATE 47, OREGON STATE 20 |
| #23 Texas Longhorns (0-0) at Maryland Terrapins (0-0) |
| NOON - Washington D.C. - FS1 |
| Last year when Maryland went into Austin nad ran up and down the field on the Longhorns, it put a dent in the Tom Herman momentum, and seemed to signal D.J. Durkin's program was ready to take a monumental step forward. Maryland went into the season with two intriguing quarterback options, and both were lost for the year before we got to conference play. That derailed the season to the point that the team that put up 114 points with over 1,000 yards of offense in their first two games, wound up averaging 18.3 ppg on 296.3 ypg (#11 and #10 in the Big Ten) in conference play. Now with healthy quarterbacks ready to roll with a stable of running backs making for a very dangerous backfield, the player safety scandal reared its ugly head, and now D.J. Durkin finds himself suspended. I've made it no secret what a fan of Matt Canada I am. I think the offense he ran at Pitt two years ago was just about the most beautiful display of football I've seen in a long time. I think his hire was a home run...as offensive coordinator. What he is as a head coach, I have no idea, he's never done it, and what amount that takes away from his duties as offensive coordinator only hurts the offense. Only the people who expected an immediate turnaround have soured at all on the Tom Herman hire at Texas. He's still integrating his system, and unlike when he arrived in Columbus or Houston, he didn't have a Braxton Miller or Greg Ward Jr. waiting for him that was already perfectly suited for what he wanted to do. But now is time to take a step forward. Does he need to win a Big XII title this year? No. But he might was to get up to that 9 win mark and see a number next to his team's name. And not the one he gets at the start of the year just for being Texas. He needs to prepare for two quarterbacks, as Maryland listed Kasim Hill OR Tyrrell Pigrome as starters in Week 1. The issue is they don't present largely different challenges. Both are mobile, Pigrome is a little bit more slippery, and his accuracy was problematic. Hill is the better passer, but he had a 16 yard touchdown run to his name in limited action. Max Bortenschlager who found himself as the starter for most of the season, and his 5.6 ypa were an afterthought. Ohio State's loss of Meyer concerns me, but they still have an overwhelming talent edge over Oregon State. Maryland does not have that over Texas, and I'm much less certain of their ability to overcome the off field distractions and loss of Durkin in this matchup. |
| TEXAS 31, MARYLAND 23 |
| Kent State Golden Flashes (0-0) at Illinois Fighting Illini (0-0) |
| NOON - Champaign, IL - BTN |
| The fact that Kent State has a new head coach that is younger than me is frightening to me for a couple of reasons. First, it doesn't seem that long ago I was coping with the fact that I was older than all of the players, now I'm older than at least one of the coaches. Also, can a 31 year old lead an FBS program? He was a MAC grad assistant just 7 years ago. He did spend the past 3 years as an FBS offensive coordinator, including the last two at the Power 5 (barely) level at Syracuse. He has run the Dino Babers offensive system, winning a MAC title with it at Bowling Green in 2015. Kent State might as well try something radical, because what they are doing sure isn't working. Aside from Darrell Hazell's one good year in 2012, the Golden Flashes haven't been to a bowl since they won the MAC under Don James in 1972. They've only had two winning seasons since Glen Mason left in 1987. It will be interesting to see how Woody Barrett fits into his system. He seems like a perfect fit, but the question is where his head is at. Barrett originally committed to Auburn, and was a fit for Gus Malzahn's offense, but that didn't work out. Can he make it work in the MAC? So while Lewis may have his quarterback in place, surrounding him is nothing but questions. A ton of youth from an offense that was the MAC's worst WITH seven senior starters a year ago. They threw for only 122 yards per game, scoring only 12.8, worst in the FBS. Lewis wants to first of all change pace. Kent State ran under 62 plays per game last year, bottom 15 of the FBS, while Lewis is coming over from a Syracuse offense that led the nation in pace of play. It could take some adjustments, but Kent State should be more fun to watch going forward. Fun is hardly what I'd call Syracuse football right now. Lovie Smith coming over from the NFL felt a lot more like Al Groh than Pete Carroll. Two years in, the results are lackluster, and while he probably deserved this third year, it certainly doesn't feel like the program is gaining any traction. Any rebuild probably can't start until the next coaching hire. The Illini's 2017 class ranked 12th in the Big Ten, and that's where 2019 sits. Smith landed a pair of 4*, top 100 recruits for next year, but there was no domino effect. As for this year, Illinois has offensive troubles of their own. Rod Smith was brought in to give the offense one last attempt at a jolt. He has spent 9 of the past 10 years working under Rich Rodriguez at Michigan and Arizona. If nothing else he has proven he can put up points, and maximize quarterbacks with limited throwing ability, first with Denard Robinson at Michigan, then Khalil Tate at Arizona. He was expected to help the incumbent Cam Thomas, who looked like the exact same type of quarterback as those two guys, but on Monday, Smith announced Virginia Tech transfer A.J. Bush would be the starter. A bowl bid seems like an incredible long shot, and it will likely take at least flirting with that to save Smith's job, so a loss here is the end of the line for him, whether or not he gets to play it out. If Bush is sluggish early, I expect a short leash. That said, Lewis coming in and simply trying to make a bad offense go faster, without his guys in there, feel like it could at least be entertainingly ugly. |
| ILLINOIS 27, KENT STATE 17 |
| Texas State Bobcats (0-0) at Rutgers Scarlet Knights (0-0) |
| NOON - Piscataway, NJ - BTN |
| If there's a better way of getting around the FCS scheduling ban than playing Texas State, I don't know it. I've got the Bobcats in my countdown as the second worst team in the FBS. For comparison purposes last year, based on Sagarin's ratings that combine FBS and FCS, that was Charlotte, ranked #195 in the country, just behind Harvard and Bethune-Cookman. Jim Wacker, who found his way to the Big Ten at Minnesota, led the Bobcats to back to back Division II titles in the early 80s, but the 35 years since have been rough. Since moving to the FCS level (1AA at the time) in 1984, the Bobcats have struggled at every level. Texas State only reached the FCS playoffs twice in 27 years at that level, and still tried to make the jump to FBS, which has gone predictably poorly. Everett Withers is 4-20 in his first two years at the school, with losses in 20 of their past 21 FBS games. He has totally turned the program over, which is something you don't do without a lot of rope, and the result is a team that returns 16 starters, but has only 11 seniors on the whole roster. Their plan is to try and gamble, particularly on defense. Rutgers can expect plenty of blitzes, which may actually be a good thing. The Scarlet Knights gave up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten last year, at only 1.5 per game. Granted they only dropped back the second fewest times in the league, which translated to sacks on 6.23% of their dropbacks, which was still 7th in the conference. When your offense is as bad as Rutgers' was last year, you'll take being middling in something. Part of that is the line, and part of that is Giovanni Rescigno, who, while ineffective, is experienced, and gets the ball out. Chris Ash has decided to trade all of that in to bet on the future, naming 4* true freshman Art Sitkowski, a one time Miami commit, as the starter. Three months removed from prom, Sitkowski will be starting an FBS game. He also hired John McNulty as his new offensive coordinator, as they look to feature a more traditional power running game look. McNulty has spent the past decade as an NFL position coach, his last coordinator gig was for Rutgers, back in 2007 and 2008. The Scarlet Knights hope to get back to the level they were at when McNulty was last on campus. The move to a power run game should work. The offensive line is experienced, and they have a dynamic pair of running backs. Boston College grad transfer Jon Hilliman ran for 2,238 yards and 26 touchdowns during his Eagles' career, but was supplanted by true freshman A.J. Dillon. He is joined by probably the most dynamic playmaker on the Rutgers roster, Raheem Blackshear. With those two, and an inexperienced quarterback, expect a very one dimensional offense. Against what would be a middling FCS team if they were at that level, that should be more than enough. |
| RUTGERS 38, TEXAS STATE 10 |
| Appalachian State Mountaineers (0-0) at #10 Penn State Nittany Lions (0-0) |
| 3:30 - State College, PA - BTN |
| While Appalachian State had a dynamic offense with a number of athletes all over the field in their late FCS glory days, they've staked their early FBS success to their defensive prowess. The result was that the architect of those defenses the last five seasons, Nate Woody, was poached away by Georgia Tech. The front seven is peppered with new faces, and the combination of that with a new defensive coordinator (33 year old cornerbacks coach Brian Brown) could spell trouble. Fortunately the secondary still looks to be in good shape, because Penn State's offensive strength should shift, particularly early, to the passing game. The offense under Scott Satterfield has been fairly vanilla, and they've generally been able to run the ball at will over Sun Belt opponents. Their 223.6 ypg on the ground last year led the Sun Belt, and their 5.5 ypc was best in the conference, a full yard a head of third. That won't work against Penn State. Jalin Moore is back after leading the conference in rushing a year ago, with 1,037 yards, despite missing two games with injury. But you need only look at what he did against Power Five opponents to see how their style works against superior competition. He had 13 carries for 38 yards against Georgia, and 16 for 27 against Wake Forest. He padded that with 241 yards against New Mexico State, 114 against UL Monroe, 239 against Georgia State, etc... The Nittany Lion pass blocking has vastly improved over the past couple seasons, but if there is still a weakness on that side of the ball it's probably there. The running backs lack experience, and no matter who they have, it's going to be a step down from Barkley, but they have a ton of depth, albeit young, with good pedigrees there. The pass blocking is at times concerning, and the Mountaineers were among the nation's best at getting after the quarterback. With a new coordinator and five new starters in the front seven, will they maintain that? Penn State defensively will be almost mono-maniacally focused on Moore, and keeping this game respectable will swing on whether or not Appalachian State can force them out of that. Taylor Lamb was a four year starter at quarterback. Zac Thomas takes over, after throwing all of 10 passes a season ago. |
| PENN STATE 42, APPALACHIAN STATE 13 |
| Northern Illinois Huskies (0-0) at Iowa Hawkeyes (0-0) |
| 3:30 - Iowa City, IA - BTN |
| I'm all in on Iowa this year. The schedule breaks perfectly, and Nathan Stanley is somehow getting completely overlooked in what has to be the best quarterback crop in conference history. The best thing for Hawkeyes fans, is that this team is still young. They start three seniors on offense, and two on defense. So 2019 could be even better. They look a lot like Wisconsin at this time last year, without the track record. A very good team, with an insanely favorable schedule, with decent youth, but a much tougher schedule to follow. They can't overlook this one, and head scratching losses have tortured this program during the Ferentz regime. A summer which didn't see any major scandals or media firestorms like what Wisconsin, Michigan State, Ohio State, Maryland or Rutgers have had since last season ended, but did see a myriad of small indiscretions has left Iowa with some noteworthy suspensions for this opener. And Northern Illinois is just good enough to take advantage. Northern Illinois was probably the second best team in the MAC last year, give or take Ohio, proving that the 2016 struggles were quarterback injury related. But with massive graduations at Toledo, Northern Illinois is now the heavy frontrunner in the conference, particularly stout on defense. You don't need to remind Ferentz, Iowa lost the last meeting between these teams, the 2013 opener, and the Huskies handled their Big Ten opponent (Nebraska) last year. It's because of that top 25 defense. This isn't a random dangerous mid-major with a couple of weapons that fell through the recruiting cracks. They actually are oddly devoid of those kinds of talents. A rarity for a top end mid-major. But what they do have is the ability to play in the trenches with the big boys. While the skill position players as a whole won't wow you, the Huskies do have the defending MAC Freshman of the Year under center in Marcus Childers, who wasn't even named the starter until after they had already beaten Nebraska, and nearly beaten Boston College last year. Plenty of pressure early will be on the reserve Hawkeye offensive tackles, playing extensively due to the suspensions. The surprising grad transfer of linebacker Jawuan Johnson to TCU takes away a chunk of Northern Illinois' pass rushing ability, but they still excel there, mostly thanks to defensive end Sutton Smith, who will be leaned on a little more heavily without his running mate. The Huskies will cause some problems for the suspension depleted Iowa offensive line, but the lack of offensive weapons will prevent Northern Illinois from mounting too much of a challenge offensively, where the Iowa back seven should be a major mismatch for them. I see Iowa on upset alert in a lot of places, and I know I'm higher on them than most, but to do that, the Huskies defense can't just be disruptive, they need to create turnovers. |
| IOWA 31, NORTHERN ILLINOIS 17 |
| Indiana Hoosiers (0-0) at FIU Panthers (0-0) |
| 7:00 - Miami, FL - CBSSN |
| How does FIU keep getting home games against Power 5 schools. If you are a team like Indiana there is no way you should be playing this game. FIU is terrible, but it's still a road night game to open the season, for a program on shaky ground as is as far as bowl prospects go. Adding Arizona grad transfer Brandon Dawkins was supposed to help, but he didn't win the job, and immediately announced he was leaving the program. Morgan Ellison, who led the team in rushing as a true freshman, has been suspended. So it's back to being Peyton Ramsey's team. Ramsey looked like a freshman at times last year, but the upside was clearly there. I think he could have a career trajectory similar to Clayton Thorson at Northwestern. Dawkins' departure means that true freshmen Reese Taylor, who won Indiana's Mr. Football last year, but was slated to play cornerback, is back to quarterback, and Michael Penix, both might see action. I'm not sure what Ramsey needs to do to earn this staff's trust, but seemingly he's not doing it, because they appear to be looking for any excuse to replace the kid. Butch Davis is looking to match what Lane Kiffin ignited at rival FAU, and started on the right foot by getting the Panthers back to their first bowl in 6 years. He capitalized by bringing in a surprisingly strong recruiting class. It's a class that features 12 3* kids. The problem is while the program looks to be on the right path long term, short term looks problematic. The previous regime was not recruiting like that, so a stark fall is coming. The Panthers Return only 37% of their offensive production and 43% of their defensive production, 3rd and 5th worst in all of FBS, and they were 4-1 in one possession games, so they weren't a strong 8-5 to begin with. Maurice Alexander was supposed to be next in line at quarterback, but he looked so horrible in their bowl blowout loss to Temple, where they managed only 3 points, that he was moved to receiver. That might not be the worst thing considering the top options at wideout had been three true freshmen and a redshirt freshman. Where FIU can challenge the Hoosiers is in the defensive trenches. FIU features two 4* freshmen and two Power 5 transfers along the line, so there, FIU won't look different (at least among the starting group) than some of their Big Ten opponents. That could create some problems if nobody is able to step up and compensate for the loss of Ellison. Whoever it is gets to run behind a line that returns four starters, albeit four starters from a line that was 3rd worst in the Big Ten in rushing and allowed the 4th most sacks. Both teams will look to take advantage of short fields, as both offenses have a lot of questions to answer. The Panthers were solid in forcing turnovers last season, but the back seven looks very different now. |
| INDIANA 28, FIU 21 |
| Akron Zips (0-0) at Nebraska Cornhuskers (0-0) |
| 8:00 - Lincoln, NE - FOX |
| I can't remember there was this kind of buzz coming out of Lincoln. It's been a minute. And particularly for a team where getting to a bowl game would be a successful season. But it's not about 2018, although at Nebraska expectations are always high. It's about finally optimism about the future, optimism that maybe has been absent since the early Pelini days, so maybe 2008 or 2009? While Scott Frost returning home to Nebraska lacks the resume of a Roy Williams returning to North Carolina, or even a Jim Harbaugh to Michigan, his 13-0 national championship* season at UCF brings a solid amount of cred. But it's the way he wins. His offenses were exciting. I'm as all in on defense as anyone on here, and I still think that UCF-USF game may have been the game of the year last season. Give it some time to get the right pieces in the right spots. This is a far cry from the offense that Mike Riley had been running. But while Frost brings an exciting offense, it was the defense which was the problem last year, and really, which has been the problem for several years. The Blackshirts are far from it, surrendering 36.4 ppg a year ago, 2nd worst in the conference. That culminated in surrendering 54, 56 and 56 over the final three games, and while getting trucked by that Penn State offense is forgivable, it's not as though Minnesota or Iowa were known as offensive juggernauts. It wasn't a one year problem though. The HUskers ranked #118 in the nation in Defensive S&P+ last year, but going back #33 in 2016 was the only time since 2012 they were even inside the top 50. And even that 2012 team gave up 53.5 ppg in their 4 losses (36 to UCLA, 63 to Ohio State, 70 to Wisconsin and 45 to Georgia). The defensive line should be stout, but there is work to do behind them. Offensively, with Colorado coming in next week, there is a fine line to walk between not tipping your hand, but still needing every minute of live reps you can get. The offseason departures make the roster thin, particularly at quarterback, where one wrong hit to freshman Adrian Martinez could create an absolute disaster. The Zips have enough experience to pose a challenge, (9 starters returns for a defense that boasts 9 starting seniors) but the stadium should be electric, and Nebraska does still have more talent than they showed last season. And while the Akron defense is experienced, they were also very bad last year, surrendering 442 ypg. They did a good job of bending and not breaking though, forcing 17 field goals, 2nd most in the MAC, to field a respectable ppg average. Nebraska needs to make sure they put it in the end zone. |
| NEBRASKA 37, AKRON 20 |
| ***BIG TEN GAME OF THE WEEK*** |
| #14 Michigan Wolverines (0-0) at #12 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (0-0) |
| 7:30 - South Bend, IN - NBC |
| I'm not lying when I say I'm honestly torn on the trend of scheduling decent Week 1 matchups...but in NFL stadiums. I'm ready for college football, and a chunk of these games have zero college football feel to them at all. So while I'd also prefer an afternoon kick, I'll settle for these two at least playing on campus. Michigan boasts a schedule marked with 6 games that will define not only their 2018 campaign, but at this point the entire Harbaugh narrative. It's Year 4, he has a full roster of his players, and had a former #1 QB recruit fall into his lap when the Ole Miss scandal broke. If not now, when? Harbaugh probably wouldn't say it publicly, but I don't think he'd disagree, which is why he spent the early part of his offseason tinkering with his coaching staff. The home run hire was Jim Warriner, who did amazing things with the Ohio State offensive line, and just maybe isn't a great offensive coordinator. He's not going to be asked to do that, and the biggest glaring weakness in Michigan's performance was the offensive line. If that takes a major step forward, the Wolverines can be every bit as good as they were supposed to be in 2018, before 2017 happened. The defense has absolutely zero questions. The secondary is as good as any in the country, the linebacking group has a pair of All-American candidates, and the line features a pair of rushers that anyone other than Clemson and Auburn would trade for. You want to quibble, the interior line is merely good. How the Irish fare this year depends largely on whether Brandon Wimbush is for real. Through 9 games last year, the Irish were 8-1, with the lone loss being by 1 point to national runner-up Georgia, and Wimbush was great in every one of those wins. Then something fell apart, and while he was "fine" against Navy, he was lousy in losses to Miami and Stanford, and was so bad in the Citrus Bowl, he was benched in favor of Ian Book, who led the comeback victory. Kelly has come back to Wimbush, who is clearly the better runner, hoping he can return to the form he showed the first 2/3 of the season. It will help if the hero of that Citrus Bowl win, Miles Boykin, can develop into a consistent talent. The junior shows flashes of how good he can be, he maybe had the play of the bowl season. But before that 102 yard day, he had 9 catches for 151 yards on the season. The running games takes a big hit without Josh Adams, but Kelly has always find guys back there in his system. Their defense took a huge step forward during Mike Elko's lone year in South Bend, enough that Texas A&M broke the bank to bring him in to run their defense. Can Clark Lea keep the ball rolling? They've been very good on that side of the ball since letting letting Brian VanGorder go early in the 2016 season. But the question remains as to whether Michigan can go into a hostile environment like this and pull out a win. They did it in 2006, and since then? The Wolverines haven't beaten a ranked team on the road since that game 12 years ago, 16 losses in a row. In a sport we all love for the upsets, the fact that Harbaugh has avoided anything resembling a big loss is noteworthy, but he is also yet to pick up a big win, certainly not on the road. He'll get three, maybe four opportunities this year, and I'd be shocked if he goes 0-4, but this is a group that needs to prove, particularly on offense and the coaching staff to be more than hype, before I'll actually pick it. Michigan is the better team, but chalk this one up to a vote for the intangibles. I'll take the home team in the night game atmosphere. But, if Michigan pulls out a win, and looks good doing it (not that Wimbush is who we fear he might be), watch out, the sky is the limit. |
| NOTRE DAME 27, MICHIGAN 23 |
I think the NU @ PU game is going to be interesting...I'd pick Purdue. Fitz has a decade-plus of a head start on Brohm, but my hunch is that Brohm is the better coach by an entire measure. Add in the location and PU/NU passO/passD strength/weakness, the fact that the NU offense tends to inconsistency and Purdue also got a real DC last year, and that perhaps NU is overrated ... I have to pick the home time.
NU's defense returns most of their front 7, but replaced both starting safeties. Their long-standing DB coach retired as well, and has been replaced by their RB coach switching to the opposite side of the ball. So Purdue wants to throw the ball, and that's NU's defensive weakness.
Purdue has one of the best, if not the best, TE combos in the B1G. You can be sure that Brohm is going to want to attack those safeties. In addition, Rondale Moore in the slot might end up attracting NU's best CB, which would leave the outside receivers against someone who might not be used to that role. And if Moore doesn't attract NU's best CB, he's going to wreak havoc.
Not ready to anoint Brohm as a better coach than Fitz. Not even close, actually. Gotta have more than one year (or five) to get in that conversation.I was hunching, not annointing. Put another way, I was looking ten years ahead and guessing who will have been more impressive.
Yes on that best TE thing. Iowa, Michigan and Wisconsin will have something to say about that.Gentry had nearly as many receiving yards on about half the catches as Fant. Didn't have as many TD's as Fant though. 2 vs 11. Fant destroyed him there.
Not ready to anoint Brohm as a better coach than Fitz. Not even close, actually. Gotta have more than one year (or five) to get in that conversation.
Somebody ought to be getting paid for some of this stuff.Someone is doing fine! Don't take these to Vegas with you.