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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ELA on July 16, 2018, 08:03:56 AM

Title: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: ELA on July 16, 2018, 08:03:56 AM

SYSTEMIC CHANGES

End of TV monopoly

Recruiting coverage

Early NFL Draft entry

SYSTEM RULE CHANGES

Academic ineligibility

CFP

Conference championship games

GAME RULE CHANGES

OT

Narrower hashmarks

Tearaway jerseys banned

GAME PLAY CHANGES

Wishbone

SEC integration

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Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: ELA on July 16, 2018, 08:43:01 AM

I'm not sure how good a lot of advanced metrics for football are, compared to other sports, and to be honest, I'm not sure how much they are really used, outside of fan banter.  Don't most of the stats say you should go for two every single time?  And you should go for it on 4th down far more often?  But I haven't noticed any changes there to suggest coaches are listening.

Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: MarqHusker on July 16, 2018, 09:45:39 AM

No doubt football coaches (specifically NFL) are about the last people to follow/adopt advanced analytics on the face of the sporting earth.   I guess I'd like to hear the case for film study improvements.    I suppose early mid 90s emergence of non-linear video editing, followed by portability and efficient delivery are the biggest improvements that come to mind.  HD fits in there as well.

We were trained on all three video editing methods in undergrad.   Cut and splice, how miserable!  the old CMX video editing bay, which was basically two tape decks, monitors with a fancy keyboard and dial, very manageable, but still much slower than the intro of non-linear systems, such as AVID, or whatever else took over the 90s and 00s.  It was amazing getting your hands on a system like that.  

Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2018, 11:21:52 AM

The biggest film study improvement started like 20 years ago, didn't it - with the printouts available to players right on the sideline, moments after a drive has ended.  That's useful, for sure.  

But I went with analytics (surprise!).  No, football hasn't bought in, which means there's still massive inefficiencies that will be exploited by whoever has the balls (and brains) to be the first.  Going for two, going for it on 4th down anytime you're past your own 40, I believe it is, onside kicking more often, etc.  

But football coaches are sheep.  Hell, the NFL encourages the herd mentality by fining a player for wearing his socks wrong or a different colored shoe.  The big point here is that if a coach fails by doing things the same way as everyone else, he'll just lose his job.  If he loses by doing things differently, he'll lose his job and be made fun of.

A franchise like the Browns need to crank up the analytics and PUT THEM INTO PRACTICE.  The Browns suck, they've sucked for 30 years, and they're likely to continue sucking.  Why not try something different?  Anything different!  Except that everyone is so damned risk-adverse, that they avoid risk even when something is statistically shown to be beneficial.  

Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: ELA on July 16, 2018, 11:40:30 AM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2018, 11:21:52 AM

A franchise like the Browns need to crank up the analytics and PUT THEM INTO PRACTICE.  The Browns suck, they've sucked for 30 years, and they're likely to continue sucking.  Why not try something different?  Anything different!  Except that everyone is so damned risk-adverse, that they avoid risk even when something is statistically shown to be beneficial.  

I thought they said they were going to...and then basically didn't.

Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 16, 2018, 02:01:32 PM

Quote from: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2018, 11:21:52 AM

The big point here is that if a coach fails by doing things the same way as everyone else, he'll just lose his job.  If he loses by doing things differently, he'll lose his job and be made fun of.  

Nobody ever got fired for buying IBM. (https://www.quora.com/What-does-the-phrase-Nobody-ever-got-fired-for-choosing-IBM-mean)

Title: Re: 2018 OT Tourney (1st Round) - Film Study Improvements vs. Analytics
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on July 16, 2018, 05:33:13 PM

lol....unless you're in 2018.

Look, either you win by doing it the same way as everyone else, but you do it better (resources, talent, coaching, etc) or you win by doing it a different way.  Say you're the coach at Indiana or Mississippi State.....are you going to run the same offense as Michigan or Ohio St or Alabama?  Are you going to try to out-recruit them and conjure better facilities and bet on your coaching ability over Meyer or Saban?  If yes, then you'll lose for 3 years and get the boot.

You'd have to do it differently.  



The Browns hired Paul DePodesta, a former Billy Beane assistant....and haven't employed anything out of the ordinary.  DePodesta was the GM for the Dodgers for awhile, and everyone was itching to get rid of him since his hiring.  The status quo is comfortable and deviating from it, even when it's the only way you can win, is still scary.