CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: betarhoalphadelta on July 11, 2018, 03:44:33 PM
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Question from another forum... There are some Purdue fans who believe that if Matt Painter has never eclipsed the Sweet Sixteen, he's got a hard "ceiling" due to athleticism of the roster and style of play that he will never overcome. Others believe that after knocking on the door in the Hummel/Moore/Johnson years and then again in the Biggie/Edwardseseses/Haas years, often to be derailed by injury, he's almost been there already.
This year Purdue graduated 4 seniors. They bring back Jr Carsen Edwards, Rs So Matt Haarms, and So Nojel Eastern (along with Sr Ryan Cline). The incoming 2018 class, counting redshirts, is 5 strong, and adds grad transfer Evan Boudreaux with 2 years eligibility remaining. His 2019 class already has two decent recruits in PG Isaiah Thompson and SF/PF Mason Gillis, with some good leans from PF Malik Hall and SG Brandon Newman, and some big names that Purdue is aggressively tracking undecided.
So the question I've got, since you guys are pretty objective and knowledgeable, is what you realistically think are the odds that Purdue eclipses the S16 in the next 5 seasons...
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Was Y2K the last year that PU made it to the Round of Eight? I remember that year.
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Was Y2K the last year that PU made it to the Round of Eight? I remember that year.
So do I. We played Wisconsin 4 times. The final time was when you eliminated us that year.
But yes, I do believe that was the last time.
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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.
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So do I. We played Wisconsin 4 times. The final time was when you eliminated us that year.
But yes, I do believe that was the last time.
UW played MSU 4 times as well, and lost all damn 4.
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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.
Ed Zachery - only the top 5 or 6 programs can expect to get to the elite 8 once out of 5 seasons.
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Yeah, I would have broken it down into groups of 10%, with >40% being the top. As is, the top 3 choices are out for basically any program but the absolute elite programs.
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0-20.
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I voted 0-20, but not because I see Painter's ceiling so much as because reaching the Elite 8 is hard for any team.
Ed Zachery - only the top 5 or 6 programs can expect to get to the elite 8 once out of 5 seasons.
Fair enough. I think that's FAR more true of the Final Four than the Elite Eight, though. I think a typical "top ten" team should expect at least once, and possibly multiple.
MSU has been to 2 in the last 5 years and 4 in the last 10.
North Carolina the same.
Duke the same.
Now, Purdue isn't in the same league as those teams. But I wanted to highlight that it should be so hard for the "top" programs to achieve at least one, if not multiple, in 5 years.
Michigan 2 of the past 5, 3 of the past 10.
Wisconsin 2 of the past 5, only 2 of the past 10.
OSU 0 of the past 5, 2 of the past 10.
I put Purdue in a closer competition with those three. They average just over 1 per 5 years. I suppose I could be accused of cherry-picking against IU here, but IU has been in coaching turmoil since Knight, whereas Purdue has not.
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Fair enough. I think that's FAR more true of the Final Four than the Elite Eight, though. I think a typical "top ten" team should expect at least once, and possibly multiple.
MSU has been to 2 in the last 5 years and 4 in the last 10.
North Carolina the same.
Duke the same.
Now, Purdue isn't in the same league as those teams. But I wanted to highlight that it should be so hard for the "top" programs to achieve at least one, if not multiple, in 5 years.
Michigan 2 of the past 5, 3 of the past 10.
Wisconsin 2 of the past 5, only 2 of the past 10.
OSU 0 of the past 5, 2 of the past 10.
I put Purdue in a closer competition with those three. They average just over 1 per 5 years. I suppose I could be accused of cherry-picking against IU here, but IU has been in coaching turmoil since Knight, whereas Purdue has not.
Tournaments are weird and dumb. Keep going, eventually something happens, maybe. Or it doesn't.
(Wisconsin was one dumb possession away from losing in the second round in the first Final Four run, was down by four with seven minutes left in the Sweet 16 the next year, was a basket away from the Elite 8 in 2012, made one without facing a single-digit seed. It's all dumb sometimes)
It's also interesting that Painter has had one team seeded to get that far and two teams better than four seeds. And he's run into a lot of one seeds.
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I think I agree with ELA in that anything more than ~40% is Dook/Kansas/Kentucky territory so all we are really talking about here is whether Purdue's chances are either:
I think it is close to 20% but I'm still going to go with the group and pick 0-20%.
You have pointed out many times that Purdue has had really bad luck in nearly always getting high seed opponents. @bayareabadger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1571) 's point about flukes is also very true. It is the same for Ohio State. When they went to the CG against Florida with Oden they were very nearly eliminated in the second round by a #8 seed. That would have been a humongous difference between a #1 seed that flamed out in the second round and a NC appearance and it almost happened.
The point is that there is a lot of luck that goes into this. Most team's don't get Michigans path to the Championship Game (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqCTq3EeDcY). It happens once in a while and when it does you just hope that your team is in the right place at the right time and takes advantage of it.
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I don't know, but the Boilers' odds of going undefeated are far greater than their odds of going winless.
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I voted 0-20, but probably closer to 20 than it is to 0. PU has a very good hoops program (the average fan would never guess that they lead the all-time series against IU) but has too inconsistent to be a real powerhouse. Painter has done a lot of good things for the program, but maybe he's not the guy to get them to the next level. But it might not be completely on him. Purdue hasn't been terribly lucky at getting good draws in their bracket either. Even elite programs need favorable matchups to go deep most years.
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I answered at %50 (41-60) they seemed to have consistently the talent to get to the sweet 16, that's 1 upset away from the elite 8.
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It's also interesting that Painter has had one team seeded to get that far and two teams better than four seeds. And he's run into a lot of one seeds.
Yeah, and the year Purdue had Hummel, Johnson, and Moore as juniors, along with a senior Kramer to be the defensive stopper, they were at one point ranked #3 in the country. Then Hummel tore his ACL in February, and a team that would have likely fallen at worst to a 2 seed even if they'd lost a few games, but without Hummel they slipped to a 4.
Last year, Purdue was at one point also ranked #3 in the country, and although they hit a 3-game skid after that, remained a 2 seed in the tournament. But then Haas broke his elbow in the first game, and that was that.
2009: They had a 5 that reached the S16 (Hummel/Johnson/Moore as sophomores), and faced a 1.
2010: They had a 4 that should have been a 1 or 2, but Hummel was lost in late Feb and they still made the S16, losing to a 1.
2011: They had a 3 that got clobbered by #11 VCU in the round of 32. That was the missed opportunity... Had they beaten VCU they would have faced #10 FSU, which would have been a good opportunity to break through.
2017: As a 4, they ran into #1 Kansas in the S16. Played them close for 25 minutes, and then Kansas just went nuts.
2018: Had a 2, lost Haas to injury late in the round of 64. Beat #10 Butler to reach the S16, but then without Haas, lost to #3 TTU.
2011 was the best chance at the "broken bracket", but unfortunately part of the reason that bracket was broken was Purdue losing to VCU...
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Thanks to everyone for responding. I kinda tabulated the numbers (assuming that 0-20 was 10% likely, 20-40 was 30% likely, 40-60 was 50% likely, and 60-80 was 70% likely), and came up with an average "prediction" of about 28% with 13 votes tabulated...
That's just back of a napkin math, but does that seem like an out of the realm number to you folks?
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Yeah, and the year Purdue had Hummel, Johnson, and Moore as juniors, along with a senior Kramer to be the defensive stopper, they were at one point ranked #3 in the country. Then Hummel tore his ACL in February, and a team that would have likely fallen at worst to a 2 seed even if they'd lost a few games, but without Hummel they slipped to a 4.
Last year, Purdue was at one point also ranked #3 in the country, and although they hit a 3-game skid after that, remained a 2 seed in the tournament. But then Haas broke his elbow in the first game, and that was that.
gotta have a little luck
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gotta have a little luck
That's what gets me about the other forum where some of these folks are saying he'll NEVER get past the S16. They say 13 years is enough time to judge, and if he hasn't yet, it's never going to happen.
And when you point out that he's had a couple teams that looked like they should have gotten past but were derailed by injuries, and his other teams (4/5 seeds) that "shouldn't"--by the numbers anyway--make the E8 had doubly-difficult roads as they weren't beneficiaries of broken brackets and faced the #1 seed?
"Those are just excuses."
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That's what gets me about the other forum where some of these folks are saying he'll NEVER get past the S16. They say 13 years is enough time to judge, and if he hasn't yet, it's never going to happen.
And when you point out that he's had a couple teams that looked like they should have gotten past but were derailed by injuries, and his other teams (4/5 seeds) that "shouldn't"--by the numbers anyway--make the E8 had doubly-difficult roads as they weren't beneficiaries of broken brackets and faced the #1 seed?
"Those are just excuses."
some of those folks are idiots
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"Those are just excuses."
They are excuses but at the same time they are facts. Once in a while a team gets a really easy path. Other teams get really tough paths. It is what it is.
I think the key to whatever level you are hoping to achieve is to be in that universe in terms of things like talent/scheme then just be patient. Under Painter I feel like Purdue has been in the "universe" of E8 and even F4 teams. If he keeps that up, they'll break through eventually. Who knows, maybe all of Purdue's bad luck will come back around and next year they'll get something like Michigans path to the CG this year (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OqCTq3EeDcY).
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Thanks to everyone for responding. I kinda tabulated the numbers (assuming that 0-20 was 10% likely, 20-40 was 30% likely, 40-60 was 50% likely, and 60-80 was 70% likely), and came up with an average "prediction" of about 28% with 13 votes tabulated...
That's just back of a napkin math, but does that seem like an out of the realm number to you folks?
I'd run your vote again with ELA/Medina's suggestion of 10, 20, 30, 40, 50+.
I also see 2 people voted in the 60-80 bracket, so maybe just asking people what there percentage was would give you better lazy math.
The fact your sample size is 13 is really small, so any result needs to be taken with several grains of salt.
When I look at the results, I see a large chunk of "realists" that says it takes elite talent and lucky breaks to make the elite 8.
And I see a couple (possible 4) optimists, that says he has had the talent to get there, and can break through any season.
The last 3 voters placed their vote where the "average" came out, I don't know if they get a label or not. With out knowing who voted where Smart@ss comes to mind.
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Honestly it's not important enough to get an "accurate" number for me to re-run the poll. I got a rough sense of what people were thinking, so that's good enough for me.
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I do think that a lot of this is luck. You pointed out upthread:
- 2009: as a #5, lost to a #1 in the S16
- 2010: as a #4, lost to a #1 in the S16
- 2017: as a #4, lost to a #1 in the S16
- 2018: as a #2, lost to a #3 in the S16
On all four of those occasions they played the highest seed they could have, based on seeding, in the S16 and in three of the four they obviously played a #1 seed which is as tough as it gets.
My theory on this is:
- In the first round your opponent is almost 0% luck and almost 100% dependent on how good your team was.
- In the Round of 32 your opponent is about 25% luck and about 75% dependent on how good your team was.
- In the S16 your opponent is about 50% luck and about 50% dependent on how good your team was.
- In the E8 your opponent is about 90% luck and about 10% dependent on how good your team was.
In that 50/50 S16 Purdue has had a real string of bad luck.
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Be good for the Conference to see some Tiller like teams in CFB
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bump
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bump
Why bump? Purdue did it after that very season in the 2019 tournament, reaching the E8.
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and might do it again
no one, not even myself voted for 81-100%
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Pretty friggin' decent chance, lol
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If they can't get there with the bracket all cleared out....
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I've liked Matt since he was a player
seems he's over performed per expectations from this group (smart fellers)
don't remember how I voted - probably 61-80%
any coach of the year awards?