CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on June 05, 2018, 07:06:36 PM
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A fun off-season discussion.
There have been 122 seasons of Western/BigTen/Big11Ten/B1G football and in those 122 season there have been 174 Championships awarded. (Side note, prior to the CG there were 167 champions in 115 years or almost 1.5 per year due to co-championships).
Michigan is the all-time leader with 42, leaderboard:
- 42 Michigan
- 36 Ohio State
- 18 Minnesota
- 15 Illinois
- 14 Wisconsin
- 11 Iowa
- 9 Michigan State
- 8 Northwestern
- tie 8 Purdue
- 7 Chicago
- 4 Penn State
- 2 Indiana
That seems a bit unfair to the schools that joined later (particularly MSU and PSU).
Since Penn State's first Championship in 1994 the Nittany Lions are in fourth place:
- 10 Ohio State
- 5 Wisconsin
- tie 5 Michigan
- 4 Penn State
Since Michigan State's first Championship in 1953 the Spartans are in third place:
- 28 Ohio State
- 22 Michigan
- 9 Michigan State
Since Ohio State's first Championship in 1916 the Buckeyes are tied for first with Michigan at 36.
One of the most interesting things to me is Minnesota's utter collapse. When they won their 18th Championship in 1967 (split with Indiana and Purdue) the Gophers were in second place all time and closer to first (Michigan with 21) than third (Ohio State and Illinois with 12 each). The only schools to be members for the entire 50 years since then (1968-2017) and not win a Championship are Minnesota and Indiana. 1968-2017 Championships:
- 24 Ohio State
- 21 Michigan
- 6 Michigan State
- tie 6 Wisconsin
- 5 Iowa
- 4 Penn State
- 3 Northwestern
- tie 3 Illinois
- 1 Purdue
- 0 Indiana
- tie 0 Minnesota
Michigan's current (2005-2017) 13 year title-drought ties their longest ever (13 years from 1951-1963) but I don't think it is quite as bad. For one thing there were co-championships back then so that drought was worse. For another that was part of an 18 year stretch in which the Wolverines only won one title (1951-1968). By comparison, in the most recent 18 years (2000-2017) Michigan has won three titles (2004, 2003, 2000).
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Since Penn State's first Championship in 1994 the Nittany Lions are in fourth place:
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Since PSU began playing Big Ten football in 1993, it's OSU with 11 and Wisconsin with 6 (those 2 shared in 1993).
That eliminates the tie for #2.
:93:
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Since Penn State's first Championship in 1994 the Nittany Lions are in fourth place:
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Since PSU began playing Big Ten football in 1993, it's OSU with 11 and Wisconsin with 6 (those 2 shared in 1993).
That eliminates the tie for #2.
:93:
True and a fair point.
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...and an undefeated 2012 campaign.
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One of the most interesting things to me is Minnesota's utter collapse. When they won their 18th Championship in 1967 (split with Indiana and Purdue) the Gophers were in second place all time and closer to first (Michigan with 21) than third (Ohio State and Illinois with 12 each). The only schools to be members for the entire 50 years since then (1968-2017) and not win a Championship are Minnesota and Indiana. 1968-2017 Championships:
- 24 Ohio State
- 21 Michigan
- 6 Michigan State
- tie 6 Wisconsin
- 5 Iowa
- 4 Penn State
- 3 Northwestern
- tie 3 Illinois
- 1 Purdue
- 0 Indiana
- tie 0 Minnesota
Minnesota's collapse actually started much earlier and WWII is clearly the demarcation between Minnesota being a powerful football program and not.
Minnesota won their 16th league title right before the Germans bombed Pearl Harbo (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V8lT1o0sDwI)r in 1941 and after that, it was over. Minnesota's 1941 league title was their second consecutive outright league title. It was also their seventh title in nine years: 1933-1941 with titles in 1933, 34, 35, 37, 38, 40, and 41. Additionally, all but the 1933 (shared with Michigan) and 1935 (shared with Ohio State) titles were outright wins.
Both of the Gopher's titles since 1941 were shared:
- In 1960 the Gophers and Hawkeyes shared the title at 5-1.
- In 1967 the Gophers, Boilermakers, and Hoosiers shared the title at 6-1.
What really illustrates just how dramatic Minnesota's collapse was is to just look at 1896-1941 titles compared to 1942-2017 titles:
1896-1941 titles:
- 16 Minnesota
- 15 Michigan
- 8 Illinois
- 7 Chicago
- 5 Northwestern
- tie 5 Wisconsin
- tie 5 Ohio State
- 4 Purdue
- 3 Iowa
1942-2017 titles:
- 31 Ohio State
- 27 Michigan
- 9 Wisconsin
- tie 9 Michigan State
- 8 Iowa
- 7 Illinois
- 4 Purdue
- tie 4 Penn State
- 3 Northwestern
- 2 Indiana
- tie 2 Minnesota
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Michigan's lead in league titles:
Michigan's lead is now down to just six over the Buckeyes (42-36). Michigan's lead in league titles has not been this small since prior to the 1973 season when Michigan led Minnesota by six (24-18).
Michigan has been alone in the lead in league titles since winning their 17th in 1947. The Wolverines have been at least tied for the lead in league titles since winning their 16th in 1943. The last time Michigan was not in the lead in league titles was prior to the 1943 season when the standings were (1896-1942 league titles):
- 16 Minnesota
- 15 Michigan
- 8 Illinois
- 7 Chicago
- 6 Ohio State
- 5 Wisconsin
- tie 5 Northwestern
- 4 Purdue
- 3 Iowa
After Michigan passed Minnesota with their 1947 title their lead steadily increased over the Gophers so that by the time the Buckeyes caught up to the Gophers with their title in 1974 (shared with Michigan) the Wolverines held a lead of eight (26-18) over the Buckeyes and Gophers. Michigan's lead was then stable at 7-8 for a decade and a half until the coming of John Cooper whereupon Michigan's lead began to grow. It was in the double-digits from 1990-2007 peaking at 13 (42-29) when Michigan won their most recent title in 2004.
Since 2004 the Buckeyes have won seven league titles while the Badgers, Spartans, and Nittany Lions have won three each. The other 10 teams (Michigan, Minnesota, Illinois, Iowa, Northwestern, Purdue, Indiana, Nebraska, Maryland, and Rutgers) that have been in the league for all or part of 2005-2017 (13 years) have not won a league title.
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Typically when we have these discussions Michigan fans take the position that oldest is most important. It reminds me a bit of the scene in the Movie Airplane in which the question of "what happened before I got here?" is answered with "First there were the dinosaurs . . ." Note to Michigan fans: that scene is funny because nobody else views history that way. For everyone else, the most relevant 20 years are 1998-2017 not 1896-1915 and the most relevant 50 years are 1968-2017 not 1896-1945.
The leaders in Championships since a given year are:
- Since 2017 (all are inclusive): Ohio State with one.
- Since 2016: Ohio State and Penn State with one each.
- Since 2015: Ohio State, Penn State, and Michigan State with one each.
- Since 2014: Ohio State with two.
- Since 2012-2013: Ohio State and Michigan State with two each.
- Since 2011: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin with two each.
- Since 2010: Michigan State and Wisconsin with three each.
- Since 2009: Ohio State, Michigan State, and Wisconsin with three each.
- Since 1926-2008: Ohio State with four to 33.
- Since 1924-1925: Ohio State and Michigan with 33 each.
- Since 1917-1923: Michigan with 34-36.
- Since 1907-1916: Ohio State and Michigan with 36 each.
- Since 1896-1906: Michigan with 37-42.
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Longest stretches of neither Ohio State nor Michigan winning a league title:
- Nine years, 1907-1915: Titles won by MN4x, IL3x, Chicago3x, and UW. Note that Ohio State did not join until 1913 so was not in the league for six of these nine (1907-1912) and Michigan left after winning the 1906 title (shared with MN and UW) and did not return until 1917 so they were out of the league for all nine years.
- Four years, 2010-2013: Titles won by UW3x, MSU2x. Note that this included a perfect season by Ohio State while on suspension in 2012 and a shared league title by Ohio State in 2010 that was subsequently vacated.
- Three years, 1965-1967: Titles won by MSU2x, MN, PU, IU.
- Three years, 1958-1960: Titles won by IA2x, UW, MN.
- Three years, 1951-1953: Titles won by IL2x, UW, MSU, PU.
- Three years, 1936-1938: Titles won by MN2x and NU.
- Three years, 1927-1929: Titles won by IL2x, MN, and PU.
The addition of a title game and consequent limit to only one champion each year has had a substantial impact on stats like these. In the last eight years (2010-2017) the Buckeyes and Wolverines have combined to win only two league titles (both by tOSU, '14 and '17). Similarly, in the eight years from 2009-2016 Ohio State and Michigan combined to win only two league titles (tOSU in '09 and '14). That is the fewest in eight years for the Buckeyes and Wolverines since 1909-1916 when they combined to win only one but, as mentioned above, the Buckeyes were only in the league for part of that time and the Wolverines were not in the league for any of that time.
Not counting times when one or both were not in the league, the fewest combined titles in any eight year stretch for the Buckeyes and Wolverines is two which has happened several times:
- 2010-2017 (see above)
- 2009-2016 (see above)
- 1960-1967: Michigan in 1964, Ohio State in 1961
- 1959-1966: Michigan in 1964, Ohio State in 1961
- 1958-1965: Michigan in 1964, Ohio State in 1961
- 1956-1963: Ohio State in 1957 and 1961
- 1934-1941: Ohio State in 1935 and 1939
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*So three years is the longest.
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*
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It works like a double negative. Two asterisks equals one Big Ten title.
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I meant to add this to be fair to Chicago:
Chicago won an outright Championship in 1924, that was their last. That was their seventh overall and second in three years. At that point they were third overall. It is interesting how evenly the early Championships were distributed. 1896-1924 Championships:
- 9 Michigan
- 8 Minnesota
- 7 Chicago
- 6 Illinois
- 5 Wisconsin
- 3 Iowa
- tie 3 Ohio State
- 1 Northwestern
- tie 1 Purdue
Since then Chicago has been passed by:
Ohio State: Caught them in 1944, passed them in 1949.
Illinois: Caught them in 1927, passed them in 1928.
Wisconsin: Caught them in 1959, passed them in 1962.
Iowa: Caught them in 1981, passed them in 1985.
Michigan State: Caught them in 2010, passed them in 2013.
Northwestern: Caught them in 1996, passed them in 2000.
Purdue: Caught them in 1967, passed them in 2000.
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I was curious about U of Chicago. It is now D-III in football. Don't expect it to return to D-I.
Chicago's enrollment is much higher than I thought -- 16,000. Typical ACT scores are 32-35. Northwestern's typical ACT scores are 31-34.
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Indiana Jones graduated from there.
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Shortest to longest current title droughts (while in the league):
- 0 seasons, Ohio State
- 1 season, 2017, Penn State
- 2 seasons, 2016-2017, Michigan State
- 4 seasons, 2014-2017, Rutgers^
- tie 4 seasons, 2014-2017, Maryland^
- 5 seasons, 2013-2017, Wisconsin*
- 7 seasons, 2011-2017, Nebraska*^
- 13 seasons, 2005-2017, Iowa*
- tie 13 seasons, 2005-2017, Michigan
- 16 seasons, 2002-2017, Illinois
- 17 seasons, 2001-2017, Northwestern
- tie 17 seasons, 2001-2017, Purdue
- 50 seasons, 1968-2017, Indiana
- tie 50 seasons, 1968-2017, Minnesota
*Wisconsin, Nebraska, and Iowa have all been to, but lost CG's since their most recent league titles.
^ Rutgers, Maryland, and Nebraska have never won a league title in THIS league so the times listed for them are since they began B1G play.
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Longest title droughts ever (list includes all 10 or more year droughts):
- 58 seasons 1937-1994 Northwestern
- 50 seasons 1968-2017 Minnesota
- tie 50 seasons 1968-2017 Indiana
- 45 seasons 1900-1944 Indiana
- 39 seasons 1913-1951 Wisconsin
- 33 seasons 1923-1955 Iowa
- 32 seasons 1968-1999 Purdue
- 30 seasons 1963-1992 Wisconsin
- 22 seasons 1904-1925 Northwestern
- tie 22 seasons 1896-1917 Purdue
- 21 seasons 1946-1966 Indiana
- 20 seasons 1961-1980 Iowa
- tie 20 seasons 1901-1920 Iowa
- 19 seasons 1964-1982 Illinois
- tie 19 seasons 1991-2009 Michigan State
- 18 seasons 1942-1959 Minnesota
- 17 seasons 1929-1945 Illinois
- tie 17 seasons 2001-2017 Northwestern
- tie 17 seasons 2001-2017 Purdue
- 16 seasons 2002-2017 Illinois
- 15 seasons 1925-1939 Chicago
- 14 seasons 1921-1934 Ohio State
- tie 14 seasons 1896-1909 Illinois
- tie 14 seasons 1953-1966 Purdue
- 13 seasons 2005-2017 Michigan
- tie 13 seasons 1951-1963 Michigan
- tie 13 seasons 2005-2017 Iowa
- 11 seasons 1916-1926 Minnesota
- tie 11 seasons 1991-2001 Iowa
- tie 11 seasons 1967-1977 Michigan State
- tie 11 seasons 1954-1964 Michigan State
- 10 seasons 1991-2000 Illinois
- tie 10 seasons 2000-2009 Wisconsin
- tie 10 seasons 1933-1942 Purdue
- tie 10 seasons 1919-1928 Purdue
- tie 10 seasons 1995-2004 Penn State
Current droughts are in bold.
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There's a pretty good chance that Indiana and/or Minnesota can break Northwestern's record.
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There's a pretty good chance that Indiana and/or Minnesota can break Northwestern's record.
Indiana is a virtual lock to break that one. Minnesota - I wouldn't call them a lock to do it, but it's very likely.
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It's also harder to break the streak without co-championships.
If we removed the CCGs...
2011 would flip from Wisconsin to Michigan State
2012 would flip from Wisconsin to Nebraska
2013 would add Ohio State as co-champs with Michigan State
2015 would flip from Michigan State to Iowa
2016 would add Ohio State as co-champs with Penn State
2017 would flip from Ohio State to Wisconsin
So in just 7 years, 4 would flip, 2 would add a co-champ, 1 (2014) stays the same.
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It's also harder to break the streak without co-championships.
That is a huge difference. I pointed out in the original post that prior to the CG we averaged almost 1.5 Champions per year. Looking at current droughts:
- Indiana/Minnesota's 50 drought is since a three-way shared Championship also shared with Purdue.
- Purdue/Northwestern's 17 year drought is since a three-way shared Championship also shared with Michigan.
- Iowa/Michigan's 13 year drought is since a co-championship shared between those two.
If we eliminated the CG's then:
- Ohio State's zero year drought would grow to one year.
- Wisconsin's five year drought would shrink to zero years.
- Iowa's 13 year drought would shrink to two years.
- Michigan State's two year drought would grow to four years.
- Nebraska's seven year drought would shrink to five years.
The "no CG" list is:
- 0 seasons, Wisconsin
- 1 season, 2017, Penn State
- tie 1 season, 2017, Ohio State
- 2 seasons, 2016-2017, Iowa
- 4 seasons, 2014-2017, Michigan State
- tie 4 seasons, 2014-2017, Rutgers
- tie 4 seasons, 2014-2017, Maryland
- 5 seasons, 2013-2017, Nebraska
- 13 seasons, 2005-2017, Michigan
- 16 seasons, 2002-2017, Illinois
- 17 seasons, 2001-2017, Northwestern
- 17 seasons, 2001-2017, Purdue
- 50 seasons, 1968-2017, Indiana
- 50 seasons, 1968-2017, Minnesota
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Indiana is a virtual lock to break that one. Minnesota - I wouldn't call them a lock to do it, but it's very likely.
I think it is extraordinarily likely that Indiana and Minnesota together will first tie, then surpass Northwestern's 58 year title drought. My guess is that if we look at this again after the 2026 season:
- Indiana/Minnesota will have 59 year droughts.
- Northwestern/Purdue will have 26 year droughts.
- Illinois will have a 25 year drought.
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I dunno. I think NU might be able to crack the top of the West. Not sure if that means they can beat OSU though. They haven't done it since 2004, and before that, 1971. Not that those years matter, but still. Beating OSU, for any team, is a rough go.
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I didn't realize the West champ was 0-4 since you guys got rid of the Legends and Leaders crap.
The SEC West started out 1-6 in our CCG, and was behind 10-5 fifteen years in, but thanks to a recent 8-game streak, are now leading by 2.
I wonder if wild, 5-10 year swings will be the norm moving forward. I'll look at the PAC.
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Hmm, the PAC North started out 6-0 before losing this past year. Interesting.
Things don't look good for the B10 West for at least 2 more years.....
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The Badgers could be pretty good
and the chance of an upset always exists
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I saw a woman with a Michigan 2005 Rose Bowl shirt on yesterday. Made me want to dig into my closet for a 1994 NC night shirt I catch my wife wearing from time to time.
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I have 3 Husker Rose Bowl shirts in my closet
bought them 3 for $21 the day after the game
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I dunno. I think NU might be able to crack the top of the West. Not sure if that means they can beat OSU though. They haven't done it since 2004, and before that, 1971. Not that those years matter, but still. Beating OSU, for any team, is a rough go.
More pieces are in place than usual for coach Pat Fitzgerald to go for a second consecutive high-end season at Northwestern.*
http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/barfknecht-next-goal-for-pat-fitzgerald-and-northwestern-is-to/article_7c6724da-0e81-5f7a-be68-6eeea1739251.html (http://www.omaha.com/huskers/football/barfknecht-next-goal-for-pat-fitzgerald-and-northwestern-is-to/article_7c6724da-0e81-5f7a-be68-6eeea1739251.html)
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I was curious about U of Chicago. It is now D-III in football. Don't expect it to return to D-I.
Chicago's enrollment is much higher than I thought -- 16,000. Typical ACT scores are 32-35. Northwestern's typical ACT scores are 31-34.
Chicago is a much better school.... I mean, if you want to create PowerPoints, attend Northwestern. If you want to learn, go to Chicago.
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Indiana Jones graduated from there.
The Manhattan Project happened there.
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Chicago is a much better school.... I mean, if you want to create PowerPoints, attend Northwestern. If you want to learn, go to Chicago.
A little harsh on NU there. NU is a very fine school. UC is a cut above, but the engineering programs suck there (Hah!). I'm glad they finally decided to start this thing, at least:
https://ime.uchicago.edu/about/
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The 122 years of B1G/Big11Ten/Big Ten/Western conference football divide evenly into two halves. The more recent is the 61 seasons from 1957-2017. In those 61 seasons the league title leaderboard is:
- 26 Ohio State (approx one every 2.3 years)
- 22 Michigan (approx one every 2.8 years)
- 8 Wisconsin (approx one every 7.6 years)
- tie 8 Michigan State
- 7 Iowa (approx one every 8.7 years)
- 4 Illinois (approx one every 15.3 years)
- tie 4 Penn State (approx one every 15.3 years but PSU only started Big11Ten competition in 1993 so they have four titles in 25 attempts or approx one every 6.3 years)
- 3 Northwestern (approx one every 20.3 years)
- 2 Minnesota (approx one every 30.5 years)
- tie 2 Purdue
- 1 Indiana (one every 61 years)
The first 61 years of Western/Big Ten play were from 1896-1956. In those 61 seasons the league title leaderboard was:
- 20 Michigan (approx one every 3.1 years but Michigan was out of the league for 10 years from 1907-1916 so they won 20 in 51 attempts or approx one every 2.6 years)
- 16 Minnesota (approx one every 3.8 years)
- 11 Illinois (approx one every 5.5 years)
- 10 Ohio State (approx one every 6.1 years but Ohio State did not join until 1913 so they won 10 in 44 attempts or approx one every 4.4 years)
- 7 Chicago* (approx one every 8.7 years but Chicago left the conference after the 1939 season so they won seven in 44 attempts or approx one every 6.3 years)
- 6 Wisconsin (approx one every 10.2 years
- tie 6 Purdue
- 5 Northwestern (approx one every 12.2 years)
- 4 Iowa (approx one every 15.3 years but Iowa did not join until 1900 so they won four in 57 attempts or approx one every 14.3 years)
- 1 Michigan State (approx one every 61 years but Michigan State did not join until 1953 so they won one in four years)
- tie 1 Indiana (approx one every 61 years but Indiana did not join until 1900 so they won one in 57 years)
*Note that Chicago won their seventh and last league title in 1924 then limped along in the conference for another 15 years. From 1896-1924 Chicago won seven league titles in 29 years or approximately one every 4.1 years.
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Average number of years between league titles in each half of the conference's existence:
Note, for the original members that have been members for the entire existence of the conference (Wisconsin, Illinois, Northwestern, Minnesota, Purdue) there are simply two 61 year halves. For all of the others this is based on the portion of each half of the conferences' existence during which the school in question was a member. Ie, for Michigan in the first half of the conference's existence they were a member from 1896-1906 and again from 1917-1956 for a total of 51 out of the 61 years.
- 2.3 years: Ohio State with 26 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 2.6 years: Michigan with 20 titles in 51 years from 1896-1906 and 1917-1956.
- 2.8 years: Michigan with 22 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 3.8 years: Minnesota with 16 titles in 61 years from 1896-1956.
- 4 years: Michigan State with one title in four years from 1953-1956.
- 4.4 years: Ohio State with 10 titles in 44 years from 1913-1956.
- 5.5 years: Illinois with 11 titles in 61 years from 1896-1956.
- 6.3 years: Chicago with 7 titles in 44 years from 1896-1939.
- 6.3 years: Penn State with 4 titles in 25 years from 1993-2017.
- 7.6 years: Wisconsin with 8 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 7.6 years: Michigan State with 8 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 8.7 years: Iowa with 7 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 10.2 years: Wisconsin with 6 titles in 61 years from 1896-1956.
- 10.2 years: Purdue with 6 titles in 61 years from 1896-1956.
- 12.2 years: Northwestern with 5 titles in 61 years from 1896-1956.
- 14.3 years: Iowa with 4 titles in 57 years from 1900-1956.
- 15.3 years: Illinois with 4 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 20.3 years: Northwestern with 3 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 30.5 years: Minnesota with 2 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 30.5 years: Purdue with 2 titles in 61 years from 1957-2017.
- 57 years: Indiana with 1 title in 57 years from 1900-1956.
- 61 years: Indiana with 1 title in 61 years from 1957-2017.
It is interesting to note that from 1896-1924 Chicago won seven titles in 29 years or approximately one every 4.1 years.