CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on January 30, 2024, 03:29:09 PM
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We have a running debate on here mostly between @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) and I about Chris Holtmann.
My view is simple, the appropriate process for making the decision as to whether or not to retain a coach is:
- Establish a baseline expectation. This I advocate doing mostly by assessing program historical average performance. I'm purposely being a little vague when I say "historical" here because I don't have an exact number of years that you should be looking at. With BB I used the NCAA expansion to 64 in 1985 as my start-date so roughly 40 years. I don't think that your football or basketball team's successes or failures 100+ years ago are terribly relevant but I also don't think that you should limit your review to the last 5-10 years because all programs have ups and downs so if you do that you might end up with an unreasonably high or low assessment.
- If the current coach is substantially above the realistic assessment, fight to keep him.
- If the current coach is substantially below the realistic assessment, look to get rid of him.
- If the current coach is about equal to the realistic assessment you probably don't want to fire him and you certainly don't want to pay a big buyout to get rid of him but you also probably shouldn't sign extensions that include large buyouts that could make it difficult to terminate him if performance falls off.
I hear a lot of other posters saying that you need a transition plan BEFORE you fire the current coach. I disagree for two reasons:
- I see the decision to fire (or not fire) and the decision of who to hire as two separate decisions.
- I basically think that coach hires are more-or-less crap shoots. There are plenty of great looking hires that turned out terrible and terrible looking hires that excelled. I also think things like "fit" and timing that are more intangible and harder to pin down play a big role in it so when you hire, you are basically guessing.
What say you?
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What say you?
Fire Holtmann.
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Another thing that gets brought up a lot is "record against rival" and frankly I think that is a terrible way to make this decision with one notable exception.
Here in Ohio State land there are some fans who think either that tOSU should fire Ryan Day or that Ryan Day should be on the hotseat because he's lost three straight to our hated cheating rival up north. I hate losing to them as much as anyone but I'm not on board with canning Ryan Day or even for him to be on the hotseat for numerous reasons. First among those is that even in the past three years with those losses, Ryan Day's last three tOSU teams have gone 11-2 with a RoseBowl win, 11-2 with a CFP appearance and only a long FG from an NC, and 11-2. If 33-6 is not good enough, who are you going to hire?
Beyond that, there is another issue with "record against rival". Rivals aren't a constant. If you just say "Ohio State beat Michigan", I'm happy but I need context to know how big of a deal it is. If you are talking about 1970, 1972, or 1974 when Ohio State gave Michigan their ONLY loss of the year, that is a big deal. If you are talking about 2008 when Ohio State's win was Michigan's NINTH loss of the season well I'm glad the Buckeyes didn't lose because that would have been embarrassing but at the end of the day how much credit should Tressel get for beating a team that finished 3-9?
Day's teams have lost three straight to Michigan, those three Michigan teams finished with zero, one, and two losses. In the 19 years prior to that Day, Meyer, and Tressel's teams won 17 games against Michigan. Only one of the 17 Michigan teams that Day, Meyer, and Tressel beat finished with less than three losses. My point is that not all Michigan teams are alike (the same concept applies no matter what school we are talking about). Here are the results of Ohio State's games against Michigan teams that finished with less than three losses dating back to the beginning of Woody's tenure:
- 2023 L to a team that finished undefeated, Day
- 2022 L to a team that finished 13-1, Day
- 2021 L to a team that finished 12-2, Day
- 2011 L to a team that finished 11-2, Fickell
- 2006 W over a team that finished 11-2, Tressel
- 1999 L to a team that finished 10-2, Cooper
- 1997 L to a team that finished 12-0, Cooper
- 1992 T with a team that finished 9-0-3, Cooper
- 1991 L to a team that finished 10-2, Cooper
- 1989 L to a team that finished 10-2, Cooper
- 1988 L to a team that finished 9-2-1, Cooper
- 1986 L to a team that finished 11-2, Bruce
- 1985 L to a team that finished 10-1-1, Bruce
- 1980 L to a team that finished 10-2, Bruce
- 1978 L to a team that finished 10-2, Hayes
- 1977 L to a team that finished 10-2, Hayes
- 1976 L to a team that finished 10-2, Hayes
- 1975 W over a team that finished 8-2-2, Hayes
- 1974 W over a team that finished 10-1, Hayes
- 1973 T with a team that finished 10-0-1, Hayes
- 1972 W over a team that finished 10-1, Hayes
- 1971 L to a team that finished 11-1, Hayes
- 1970 W over a team that finished 9-1, Hayes
- 1968 W over a team that finished 8-2, Hayes
- 1964 L to a team that finished 9-1, Hayes
- 1956 L to a team that finished 7-2, Hayes
- 1955 W over a team that finished 7-2, Hayes
That is a whole lot of L's and honestly that isn't really saying anything about Michigan nor Ohio State. It is simply a reflection of the fact that it is REALLY difficult to beat a team that finishes the season with less than three losses.
Earle Bruce had a winning record against Michigan (5-4-1) but he went 0-3 against Michigan teams that finished with <3 losses.
Woody Hayes is a legend not just at Ohio State nor even in this league but nationally and 6-6-1 against Michigan teams that finished with <3 losses.
Tressel only ever had to face one Michigan team that finished with <3 losses.
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Is there anyone on staff that could be interim?
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Is there anyone on staff that could be interim?
Jake Diebler (brother of John) is currently listed as "Associate head coach" so he would be the most obvious for the role.
Diebler went to Valparaiso then coached at Valpo, tOSU, and Vanderbilt before retuning to tOSU as an assistant in 2019. He was elevated to AHC in 2022. If I were in Gene Smith's shoes, I would have canned Holtmann after the home loss to Minnesota LAST YEAR and made Diebler the interim.
Treating last season as water under the bridge, I would have fired Holtmann Saturday night after the Buckeyes got slaughtered in Evanston and made Diebler the interim for the rest of this year.
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The more this college football message board is taken over by different Chris Holtmann threads, the better
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I generally agree with medina's criteria.
However, I do think fans need to understand that for many programs, comparing to a baseline that is "average" performance across multiple coaching eras is sometimes difficult.
To not make this about Holtmann, I can use the Purdue football program. Let's look purely at winning percentage, and we'll start with the postwar era:
- Holcomb - .457
- Mollenkopf - .670
- DeMoss - .419
- Agase - .420
- Young - .664
- Burtnett - .384
- Akers - .284
- Colletto - .341
- Tiller - .584
- Hope - .449
- Hazell - .214
- Brohm - .514
When you look at this, using Hope as an example, he's not actually that far off "program baseline". Across 12 coaches, only 4 of them had career winning records. For program baseline, Hope is actually in 6th place out of the 12, so pretty close to baseline. In fact, his final two seasons (of 4) were his only seasons that he made it to bowl games. He was canned after starting a season 3-6, then winning three straight to become bowl-eligible and fired before the bowl game.
One could actually argue that firing him was a bad decision, because he pretty close to program baseline. But he wasn't being compared to baseline; he was being compared to the program's successful eras (most notably Tiller). I don't really agree with the idea that canning him was a mistake*, though. If program baseline isn't all that successful, you can fire coaches until you find one that improves and performs ABOVE baseline without a huge issue. I don't think there were any indications that he was going to be any better than "meh".
Sometimes you have to make a change if the current results are merely "meh".
* Note: I don't agree with HOW he was fired. Should have been fired after 3-6 and name an interim. Instead he thought he was coaching for his job, won three straight to make a bowl, and then was canned. That's a dick move.
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The more this college football message board is taken over by different Chris Holtmann threads, the better
Soon all threads will be about Chris Holtmann. Just wait for what we have in store for the "hotties" thread.
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:91:
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Soon all threads will be about Chris Holtmann. Just wait for what we have in store for the "hotties" thread.
Hopefully they all bond with some beach volleyball, Top Gun style
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Hopefully they all bond with some beach volleyball, Top Gun style
I took my oldest daughter to the new Top Gun movie and when Tom Cruise was running around shirtless playing volleyball I leaned over and whispered "he's 60"
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I took my oldest daughter to the new Top Gun movie and when Tom Cruise was running around shirtless playing volleyball I leaned over and whispered "he's 60"
I'm only 40, so hopefully my abs grow in over the next 20 years
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I took my oldest daughter to the new Top Gun movie and when Tom Cruise was running around shirtless playing volleyball I leaned over and whispered "he's 60"
so what you're really saying is Ohio State should fire Holtmann and hire Tom Cruise. Give Tom like a couple months to study and I'm sure he could master the art of being a college basketball head coach. Dude flies helicopters & jets, races motorcycles, sky dives, cliff jumps, rock climbs, scales sky-scrappers, scuba dives, holds his breath under water for 6 mins, hangs onto the side of airplanes that take off....pretty sure he could be a kick ass basketball coach if he put all his focus into it.