CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: ohio1317 on January 18, 2024, 10:42:13 AM
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Should have had this out a week ago, but been a little busy.
Teams with 1st Loss in Bowls/Championship:
Florida State
Liberty
Washington
Teams with 2nd Loss in Bowls:
(James Madison)
Ohio State
Alabama
Texas
Percent of Teams with 1st Loss of Season
Week 0/1: 37.6% (50 of 133)
Week 2: 38.6% (32 of 83)
Week 3: 23.5% (12 of 51)
Week 4: 30.8% (12 of 39)
Week 5: 18.5% (5 of 27)
Week 6: 36.4% (8 of 22)
Week 7: 21.4% (3 of 14)
Week 8: 18.2% (2 of 11)
Week 9: 11.1% (1 of 9)
Week 10: 12.5% (1 of 8)
Week 11: 0% (0 of 7)
Week 12: 14.3% (1 of 7)
Week 13: 16.7% (1 of 6)
Week 14: 20% (1 of 5)
Bowls/Championship: 75% (3 of 4)
Final Number of Undefeated Teams:
1: Michigan
-We lost the other three in their bowls games and/or championship game.
Bowl Thoughts:
-The similarities between the final year of the four team College Football Playoff and the first year of it were striking. Both had the Rose and Sugar Bowls as quarterfinals leading to a national championship in Texas. Both had one of the Big Ten's major powers defeat Alabama and then go on to defeat a Pacific Northwest PAC-12 champion. Meanwhile Florida State was undefeated, but not well respected in both years. We switched out Ohio State for Michigan, Washington for Oregon, and switched the Rose and Sugar match-ups, but still really weird similarities.
-The last year of the 4 team era was a pretty interesting one. We had 7 teams at the end of the regular season who would have been in high contention for the 4 spots in other years (Ohio State was #7 this year vs. #4 last year with a fairly similar resume, Georgia would have made it most years, and Florida State would have made any other year CFP in my estimate).
-Our lists shrank by close to as much as possible during bowl season. We lost three of our four undefeated teams and 4 of what had been our 5 one loss teams. Only Georgia survived on the 1-loss list and they beat previous unbeaten Florida State to stay there.
-Going into next year and our new era, we have a lot to watch, even if we watch it differently.
1. The group of 5 race for the CFP spot seems fairly wide open. The American and the Mountain West would have an advantage in my view, but we got a completely rebuilding Conference USA champ this year so any conference getting it is definitely a chance.
2. The SEC is getting two true blue bloods including a surging Texas, while the Big Ten is adding the four most powerful from the PAC-12. The ACC and Big 12 are also growing though. How will the conference races look in the new set-ups? How many bids will each conference end up with? My guess is you still going to generally see two extra bids (beyond the champions) from the Big 12/ACC/Notre Dame (and rarely less than 1). That will leave super-powered Big Ten and SEC with 7 between them. How would those shake out?
3. Washington State and Oregon State will effectively be independents next year. How will that fair and we'll see what is leads to.
I am still not a fan of all the changes, but will try to look on with excitement. Thanks for joining me in these threads everyone.
Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 0, Big Ten: 1, Conference USA: 0, PAC-12: 0, total: 1
Michigan
1-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, Big 12: 0, Big Ten: 0, Conference USA: 1, PAC-12: 1, SEC: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 4
Georgia
Florida State
Liberty
Washington
Remaining Winless Teams: Total: 0
none
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Still feels like FSU should have been included in the 4-team CFP despite their awful showing in the Orange Bowl. They deserved their shot more than Bama or Georgia did, even thoug both Bama and Georgia were (most likely) better teams. But Bama and Georgia were probably better than Washington too. Point is Mich, Wash, FSU were all undefeated conference champions of P5 conferences. That should be enough to get in unless there are 5 undefeated P5 champions. Georgia lost to Bama and Bama lost to Texas. So Texas gets the nodd over the 1-loss teams from the SEC.
Of course what I am really arguing is that the expansion of the CFP to at least 6 teams is justified. Whether it needs to go to 12 teams is debatable, but that is a way to get a G5 team. Otherwise I would have stopped at 8 teams.
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Still feels like FSU should have been included in the 4-team CFP despite their awful showing in the Orange Bowl. They deserved their shot more than Bama or Georgia did, even thoug both Bama and Georgia were (most likely) better teams. But Bama and Georgia were probably better than Washington too. Point is Mich, Wash, FSU were all undefeated conference champions of P5 conferences. That should be enough to get in unless there are 5 undefeated P5 champions. Georgia lost to Bama and Bama lost to Texas. So Texas gets the nodd over the 1-loss teams from the SEC.
Of course what I am really arguing is that the expansion of the CFP to at least 6 teams is justified. Whether it needs to go to 12 teams is debatable, but that is a way to get a G5 team. Otherwise I would have stopped at 8 teams.
8 was always fine. 3 rounds, nobody gets a bye, plenty of slots for inclusion. What was 5+1+2 would have become 4+1+3 with the implosion of the Pac-12, so the SEC can get their three teams in and two from the B1G. And the tallest midget gets their sacrificial lamb slot. Everyone's happy.
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4 was too many
just gotta decide if you want the 4 best teams (Bama & Georgia)
or the 4 most deserving teams (Warshington & FSU)
instead we got one of each
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We could have had
Michigan vs. Washington in the Rose Bowl
Alabama vs. Texas in the Sugar Bowl
FSU vs. Georgia in the Orange Bowl
Oregon vs. Ohio State in the Fiesta Bowl
And we'd still be talking about who was the best team.
But NOOOO.
And thanks to @ohio1317 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=27) for compiling this all season. Very enjoyable and informative.
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Should have had this out a week ago, but been a little busy.
There is really no rush especially postseason. Anyway, thanks for doing this, I've always found it interesting. That said, I don't know that we'll have much reason to care about these lists starting next season since being undefeated or having only one loss will be much less meaningful when there are 12 rather than four (2014-2023) or two (1998-2013) spots in the playoff.
8 was always fine. 3 rounds, nobody gets a bye, plenty of slots for inclusion. What was 5+1+2 would have become 4+1+3 with the implosion of the Pac-12, so the SEC can get their three teams in and two from the B1G. And the tallest midget gets their sacrificial lamb slot. Everyone's happy.
I'd have made it the "five highest ranked League Champions" plus three at-large and stipulated that the first round is hosted by the four highest ranked League Champions to make winning your league important. Looking at this year with that structure:
- 13-0 Michigan, B1G Champion
- 13-0 Washington, P12 Champion
- 12-1 Texas, B12 Champion
- 12-1 Alabama, SEC Champion
- 13-0 Florida State, ACC Champion
- 12-1 Georgia, at-large
- 11-1 Ohio State, at-large
- 13-0 Liberty, CUSA Champion
First round match-ups:
- Liberty at Michigan, winner plays FSU/Bama
- Florida State at Alabama, winner plays Lib/M
- Ohio State at Washington, winner plays UGA/Tx
- Georgia at Texas, winner plays tOSU/UW
- Winning your league matters. Georgia and Ohio State have to travel to Austin and Seattle because they didn't. M, UW, TX, and Bama get to host a CFP game because they did.
- Being top-4 matters. FSU travels because they aren't.
- G5 (or whatever) gets a sacrificial lamb into the mix. Ok Liberty, you think your 13-0 = a P5, lets see it. Go win in Ann Arbor then take out Bama/FSU, then show us what you've got tOSU/UW/UGA/TX.
- Individual games still have a high degree of importance because one loss can deprive you of hosting (see UGA/tOSU) and two losses knocks you out (Oregon, Mizzou, Penn State, Ole Miss, and Oklahoma are ALL on the outside looking in with two losses).
With the 12 team model four of the five 2-loss teams are in along with ALL 1-loss teams and undefeateds.
For the entire time I've been interested in CFB losses have been near-fatal to an NC drive. EVERY game has mattered EVERY year because a single loss to a mediocre MSU (1998) or Purdue (2018) could keep your team out of the NC picture. Starting this year, as an Ohio State fan, I'm fairly confident that my team has not one but two mulligans. It is a completely different view of the sport. All those talks every year that we've had about "Trap Games" are now more-or-less irrelevant.
Look at Michigan this year. They very nearly lost a trap game at Maryland. It was sandwiched between visiting Penn State and hosting Ohio State so you can understand if maybe the Terps didn't have the full attention of the Wolverines but if Michigan had lost that game I don't think they'd have made the CFP. The Committee could have blamed it on Michigan's woefully weak SoS and taken undefeated Champions FSU and Washington along with 1-loss Champions Bama and Texas and left Michigan out.
If you think through the implications of the previous paragraph, what it means is that the NC was effectively on the line in EVERY one of Michgan's 15 games because a loss in any of the first 13 would have kept them out of the CFP and obviously a loss in either of the last two would have knocked them out of the CFP. It goes beyond that though because nobody actually KNEW that Michigan was going to end up on top so the same stakes potentially applied to EVERY single game played by EVERY single NC Contender. They applied to EVERY Ohio State game. They applied to EVERY Texas game. They applied to EVERY Washington game. They applied to EVERY Alabama game. They applied to EVERY Georgia game.
Next year, for the first time in CFB History, that goes away. If a relative gets married on a CFB Saturday and I have to miss the Ohio State game, no big deal because it isn't like the whole season is on the line, it is only one game. So long as the Buckeyes don't lose three they'll have a chance at the end of the year.
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They applied to EVERY Alabama game?
They applied to EVERY Texas game?
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They applied to EVERY Alabama game?
They applied to EVERY Texas game?
Potentially yes because you didn't KNOW at the time that there wouldn't be 4 P5 undefeated teams.
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potentially yes, but not in reality
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potentially yes, but not in reality
But what matters as a fan, at the time, is the potential.
In the four team era Ohio State finished a number of seasons with one loss. Sometimes it kept them out of the playoffs, sometimes it didn't.
As a fan experiencing those losses I didn't know whether they WOULD keep tOSU out or not but I KNEW that the could:
- 2014 VaTech loss didn't.
- 2015 MSU loss did
- 2016 PSU loss didn't
- 2018 PU loss did
- 2022 M loss didn't
- 2023 M loss did
So it was 50/50. Ohio State finished six of the 10 seasons of the 4-team CFP era with one loss. They made the CFP three of those (2014, 2016, 2022) and missed the other three (2015, 2018, 2023).
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I agree with that
I'd guess most FSU fans wish it would have applied to every game
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The potential is what keeps it interesting to me. The committee could well have decided Florida State over Alabama (other years, different committees would have). Texas meanwhile wasn't safe till Alabama won the SEC. They jumped a ton because their win over SEC champ Alabama. They would have been highly unlikely to jump Florida State without Alabama winning the SEC and two weeks out I figured Oregon would beat them if it came down to only the two of them.
Those losses by Texas and Alabama were given mulligans, but they weren't something they knew they could afford until the final rankings came out.
That is what I will miss next year. I love watching top games throughout the year knowing if the favorite losses, it might be all it takes to lose out on a championship. I think my focus next year will be much more Big Ten focused as the national race is going to feel less meaningful.
All that said, I do agree Florida State should have been in over Alabama this year.