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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on December 08, 2023, 12:19:28 PM

Title: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 08, 2023, 12:19:28 PM
Looking at the final pre-bowl AP Poll, here are the teams and who they lost to:



I didn't go back to compare to prior years but this seems like an unusually small number of just "WTF" losses.  The highest ranked team to lose to an unranked team is Oklahoma but that was to a Kansas team that was ranked at the time and still has votes.  It isn't a "good" loss, but it wasn't terrible.  Nobody in the top 11 had a loss to a team that finished unranked and nobody in the top 13 had a loss to a team that finished without votes.  That seems odd to me.  
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: TyphonInc on December 08, 2023, 12:37:53 PM
That does seem pretty odd.
I'm guessing that we have the same 8 or so contenders each year with this new 12-team format. The question will be which of the transfers will be able to adjust to their new league and which ones will falter.

OSU, TCUN, PSU, 'bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, and FSU.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: SuperMario on December 08, 2023, 01:59:50 PM
OSU, TCUN, PSU, 'bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, and FSU.
That topic has been very irritating to me at times, but I'll give you massive props.. the bold abbreviation is absolutely hilarious. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 08, 2023, 02:07:13 PM
We all recall having "Upset Saturday" somewhere along the way, maybe Week 9 or so, and it never happened this season.

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on December 08, 2023, 02:48:20 PM
We all recall having "Upset Saturday" somewhere along the way, maybe Week 9 or so, and it never happened this season.
Not only was there no big "Upset Saturday" where a bunch of top teams lost unexpectedly but there were hardly any surprise upsets of any of the top teams all year long.  

Looking at past Ohio State seasons and only counting those where the Buckeyes were good enough to be one of those "top teams":
That is 10 very good seasons and Ohio State had three "WTF" losses in those.  By that math the current top-10 should have around three "WTF" losses and they have none.  In fact the top-15 only really has one (Zona to MsSt).  So I'll go on:

It seems to me that the "WTF Loss" has been a pretty standard occurrence nationally.  It seems like most years we have found ourselves talking about "Team X" that had a very good record and looked great most of the year but had a "bad loss" to a .500ish or below team.  Maybe this year will prove to be an outlier or maybe this is a product of the Portal enabling the top teams to backfill their positions of weakness.  
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2023, 03:28:15 PM
I feel the rich are getting richer

and more so, the poor are getting poorer

and its's going to get worse
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: ELA on December 08, 2023, 04:53:40 PM
Looking at the final pre-bowl AP Poll, here are the teams and who they lost to:

  • 13-0 Michigan
  • 13-0 Washington
  • 12-1 Texas, #12 Oklahoma
  • 13-0 FSU
  • 12-1 Bama, #3 Texas
  • 12-1 UGA, #5 Bama
  • 11-1 tOSU, #1 M
  • 11-2 Oregon, #2 UW twice
  • 10-2 Mizzou, #6 UGA, #13 LSU
  • 10-2 PSU, #1 M, #7 tOSU
  • 10-2 Ole Miss, #5 Bama, #6 UGA
  • 10-2 Oklahoma, #22 OkSU, ORV Kansas
  • 9-3 LSU, #4 FSU, #5 Bama, #11 Ole Miss
  • 9-3 Zona, #2 UW, NR MsSt, NR USC
  • 9-3 Notre Dame, #7 tOSU, #16 L'Ville, ORV Clemson
  • 10-3 L'Ville, #4 FSU, NR Pitt, NR UK
  • 11-2 SMU, #12 OU, NR TCU
  • 13-0 Liberty
  • 9-3 NCST, #15 ND, #16 L'Ville, NR Dook
  • 10-3 Iowa, #1 M, #10 PSU, NR Minny
  • 8-4 OrSU, #2 UW, #8 Ore, #14 Zona, NR WSU
  • 9-4 OkSU, #3 TX, NR USA, NR ISU, NR UCF
  • 11-2 Tulane, #11 Ole Miss, #17 SMU
  • 11-1 JMU, NR ApSt
  • 8-4 Tennessee, #5 Bama, #6 UGA, #9 Mizzou, NR UF


I didn't go back to compare to prior years but this seems like an unusually small number of just "WTF" losses.  The highest ranked team to lose to an unranked team is Oklahoma but that was to a Kansas team that was ranked at the time and still has votes.  It isn't a "good" loss, but it wasn't terrible.  Nobody in the top 11 had a loss to a team that finished unranked and nobody in the top 13 had a loss to a team that finished without votes.  That seems odd to me. 
I need to find the post, but there was a CFB account that pointed out that the top seemed "open" this year, but it was only because there were no big upsets.  So all of the good teams were still undefeated, or had just 1 good loss, through the year.  As I've said, college football has always had a massive talent gap between the elite and the rest.  But when only 2 got in, you could get got on a random Saturday in West Lafayette, or Corvallis, or Charlottesville, and that was the equalizer.  Once we added in conference title games, and room for a loss, we devalued those random losses.  Now, with the transfer portal, those teams who always had the best rosters, but might have one major deficiency, can fill it.

The Athletic podcast calls them "Dome Games".  Neutral site, major games.  The better team almost never loses those.  TCU over Michigan last year is the only WTF moment of the full decade of CFP games.  College football kind of worked, if you cared about the national title, because you had to figure out a way to get up 10, 11, or 12 times.  The CCGs and CFP eliminated that, and the transfer portal has eliminated any helmet team ever having any flaws.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on December 08, 2023, 05:38:40 PM
That does seem pretty odd.
I'm guessing that we have the same 8 or so contenders each year with this new 12-team format. The question will be which of the transfers will be able to adjust to their new league and which ones will falter.

OSU, TCUN, PSU, 'bama, Georgia, LSU, Clemson, and FSU.
yes, they are....The Champions Up North.

Going to start calling tOSU....The Losers Down South


:)
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: utee94 on December 08, 2023, 05:51:43 PM
I feel the rich are getting richer

and more so, the poor are getting poorer

and its's going to get worse
yup.  And it's bad for the sport.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on December 08, 2023, 06:02:48 PM
yup.  And it's bad for the sport.
it's always been a game of the haves vs have nots. just going to the extreme end of that spectrum now. NIL & Portal is accelerating it.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: utee94 on December 08, 2023, 06:20:16 PM
it's always been a game of the haves vs have nots. just going to the extreme end of that spectrum now. NIL & Portal is accelerating it.
Yup.  It's the acceleration that's the real problem here.

With the previous status quo, at least SOME non-blue-bloods had a chance at putting together a nice run and at least challenging for the MNC, if not winning it.

Like others here, even as a fan of one of the blue bloods that has the advantage in this new era, it just doesn't sit right.  It's not fair, it's less fun, and unfortunately I don't see any way back. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2023, 06:33:41 PM
the real problem will be when the Bluebloods or Helmets group goes from 18 to 8

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 08, 2023, 06:35:15 PM
PSU out
USC out 
ND out

Clemson & FSU - sorry
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: MrNubbz on December 08, 2023, 07:38:23 PM
only thing going to snuff out the trojans is their economy
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: ELA on December 08, 2023, 07:42:44 PM
It will tighten, then the bottom will get mad that they are going 2-10 instead of 8-4, and it'll tighten again, same.  Then they will realize that no alums care anymore, and nobody grew up going to games, and all they have is minor league football.  Ask the USFL/XFL how that goes.

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: bayareabadger on December 09, 2023, 12:25:25 AM
What would a version of this look like in another year? 2010 or something like that. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2023, 02:17:48 AM
We (or maybe just I) thought transfer portal would = talented players leaving top programs to get actual playing time at lesser programs, BUT....it's more like transfer portal = top programs filling in gaps by picking and choosing the best from lesser programs.
Oh, and NIL = $$$ = advantage top programs 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 05:06:01 AM
How often was YOUR TEAM actually excellent at many positions but quite weak in 2-3 critical areas (in the past)?

LSU this season is said to be great on O and terrible on D.  Are elite teams today filling gaps via the portal more than recruiting?

Incidentally, there is "rumor" (by highly placed insiders etc.) that both Bowers and Beck may come back next year, speaking of an NIL impact.  If you can make a million plus in college, would you wait?  (I think any first rounder should go.)

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: MrNubbz on December 09, 2023, 07:43:38 AM
It could have an opposite effect some dude portals in makes impressive scratch from NIL. Thus pissing off other starters maybe portaling out to get the same
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 07:52:58 AM
A coach should reflect on the motivations of some "star" wanting to join his program and whether the NIL is the main reason.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 09, 2023, 10:55:51 AM

LSU this season is said to be great on O and terrible on D.  Are elite teams today filling gaps via the portal more than recruiting?

Incidentally, there is "rumor" (by highly placed insiders etc.) that both Bowers and Beck may come back next year, speaking of an NIL impact.  If you can make a million plus in college, would you wait?  (I think any first rounder should go.)

Not just said to be...they really are.  To your question, LSU filled in the most important spot with a portal transfer (Daniels), although he transferred in before last season.  So on the side of the ball LSU is elite at, a portal guy is the biggest reason for that.  On the side of the ball they suck at, there are also portal guys--also who came before this season--guys who had been decently good at other schools, and guys who were decently good at LSU last year.  In that case the portal didn't mean a hill of beans.  They still sucked.  

According to Aaron Murray, if Beck comes back it will be because the NILsters came up with $4 mil for him.  Not merely "a million plus."  I mean, technically it is a million plus, but the plus is a lot bigger than the million there.  
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on December 09, 2023, 11:03:30 AM
We (or maybe just I) thought transfer portal would = talented players leaving top programs to get actual playing time at lesser programs, BUT....it's more like transfer portal = top programs filling in gaps by picking and choosing the best from lesser programs.
Oh, and NIL = $$$ = advantage top programs
this is exactly what's happening. 

Michigan has been able to pluck kids from Stanford, Virginia, Coastal Carolina, UMass in the portal to plug holes the last couple seasons and used NIL to keep guys an extra year like Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, and a few others that are surefire NFL draft picks and would've had no choice but to leave early for the draft pre-NIL. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: bayareabadger on December 09, 2023, 11:14:09 AM
Not just said to be...they really are.  To your question, LSU filled in the most important spot with a portal transfer (Daniels), although he transferred in before last season.  So on the side of the ball LSU is elite at, a portal guy is the biggest reason for that.  On the side of the ball they suck at, there are also portal guys--also who came before this season--guys who had been decently good at other schools, and guys who were decently good at LSU last year.  In that case the portal didn't mean a hill of beans.  They still sucked. 

According to Aaron Murray, if Beck comes back it will be because the NILsters came up with $4 mil for him.  Not merely "a million plus."  I mean, technically it is a million plus, but the plus is a lot bigger than the million there. 
If Beck gets paid that much, it’s going to be a little funny.

One of the problems with CFB economics is that prices tend to match institution/position rather than ability. The main reason he is even talked about that number is because he’s already at Georgia. And with a number of quarterbacks out there, the Bulldogs could get more and pay less. (this problem is also rampant in the coaching space)
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 11:59:42 AM
I make a million minus, always have.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: GopherRock on December 09, 2023, 12:11:25 PM
I feel the rich are getting richer

and more so, the poor are getting poorer

and its's going to get worse
This is the reason why you'll never hear any talk about kicking out Vandy, Rutgers, or Northwestern. Conference losses have to go somewhere. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 12:13:08 PM
Ed Zachery, the Helmets might separate from them but they will continue to play them for pay, like a non-con game
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 12:14:49 PM
So, we may reach soon a day when say Ohio State plays six teams with effectively zero chance of competing.  I'm not talking about 35-13 kinds of scores, but more 65-7, routinely.  Then three teams with an outside chance on a good day, and three actually competitive teams?
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 12:19:40 PM
yup, then they are seeded into a 12-team playoff to decide the MNC
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: TyphonInc on December 09, 2023, 12:21:05 PM
yes, they are....The Champions Up North.

Going to start calling tOSU....The Losers Down South


:)
Heh. I've advocated instead of South to use Below. Since Below can have multiple meanings. All my M*ch*g*n Friends just look at me and dumbly say "Ohio"  

Those Losers Down Below (TLDB)
That Team Down Below (TTDB) 
both seem like better rival names than simply saying half the name. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on December 09, 2023, 12:52:50 PM
So, we may reach soon a day when say Ohio State plays six teams with effectively zero chance of competing.  I'm not talking about 35-13 kinds of scores, but more 65-7, routinely.  Then three teams with an outside chance on a good day, and three actually competitive teams?
Isn't that pretty much the current schedule for most helmets?

A couple OOC pastries, a couple in-conference pastries, a few bowl-eligible teams and then 2-3 big boys combined in/out of conference. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on December 09, 2023, 03:55:20 PM
Yes, I'm saying it looks to be getting worse, where the pastries just get blown out instead of losing 38-10 or so, and the middle guys get beat consistently 38-10, like South Carolina or Minnesota.  We could reach the point that playing any of them is moot.

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2023, 05:38:16 PM
this is exactly what's happening.

Michigan has been able to pluck kids from Stanford, Virginia, Coastal Carolina, UMass in the portal to plug holes the last couple seasons and used NIL to keep guys an extra year like Blake Corum, Zak Zinter, Trevor Keegan, and a few others that are surefire NFL draft picks and would've had no choice but to leave early for the draft pre-NIL.
So basically, the "have" programs are WWII Army.  Those 44-45-46 Army teams with Mr. Inside and Mr. Outside got to hand-pick any and all good players who joined in the war (as athletic 20 years olds, a great very many).  Thus, Army went a combined 27-0-1 those 3 seasons.
Their avg score in 1944 was 56-4.  In 1945, it was 46-5.  Bludgeonings.  
.
Only now, there's like 10-14 Armies.  Everyone else is a "have-not" to the 5th power.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 05:51:11 PM
might not be ten

Bama
Georgia
tOSU
Michigan
Texas
ND

maybe on a good season
PSU
LSU
USC
OU?
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 09, 2023, 07:51:42 PM
might not be ten

Bama
Georgia
tOSU
Michigan
Texas
ND

maybe on a good season
PSU
LSU
USC
OU?
Florida and Miami are on the list.  So, too are Oregon, Clemson, etc.
If you made your list 2 years ago, Texas wouldn't be on it.  Just because a program hasn't hit it big in the portal/NIL 2-year era doesn't mean it won't.  

Georgia hadn't done anything until 2021.  ND has 2 undefeated regular seasons that ended in curb-stompings in the last 35+ years.  Penn State's last season with fewer than 2 losses was....2005?  

Hell, 2 years ago, FSU was an utter dumpster fire.  

The point is, PROGRAMS are either haves or have-nots, not individual seasons or even recruiting classes.  
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on December 09, 2023, 08:38:14 PM
I'm just saying, going forward

Florida and Miami, Oregon, Clemson, Penn State, FSU will be out

10 win seasons won't mean squat.
Only 2 conference championships are worthwhile

the top 5 or 6 programs will just use the portal and NIL to pull away
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on December 09, 2023, 08:42:22 PM
Florida and Miami are on the list.  So, too are Oregon, Clemson, etc.
If you made your list 2 years ago, Texas wouldn't be on it.  Just because a program hasn't hit it big in the portal/NIL 2-year era doesn't mean it won't. 

Georgia hadn't done anything until 2021.  ND has 2 undefeated regular seasons that ended in curb-stompings in the last 35+ years.  Penn State's last season with fewer than 2 losses was....2005? 

Hell, 2 years ago, FSU was an utter dumpster fire. 

The point is, PROGRAMS are either haves or have-nots, not individual seasons or even recruiting classes. 
this. Michigan being great again is fairly new.

They were a dumpster fire for basically an entire decade before Jeem showed up, and he didn't get them to a playoff until year 6 I think.

it will go in cycles for these helmets, and only a handful of them will be able to rise and fall and rise again, and then everyone else will pretty much suck eternally.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: FearlessF on February 06, 2024, 09:34:01 PM
Missouri athletics announced Monday that it received a historic $62 million gift commitment, more than double the previous record donation set in 2012. The donor wished to remain anonymous and designated $50 million for improvements to the football stadium and $12 million will go toward Mizzou's Tiger Fund, the university’s NIL initiative.

"This extraordinary commitment is a major step toward fulfilling our vision to transform Memorial Stadium and create the best college football game-day atmosphere in the country," athletic director Desireé Reed-Francois said in a statement. "Our pivotal stadium project is not possible without our donor, whose passion for Mizzou's success, coupled with humility, faith and generosity, are unparalleled. Mizzou Football fans displayed their passion last season with five consecutive home sellouts, and our donor's momentous contribution will not only enhance those magical experiences at Memorial Stadium but will greatly impact our student-athletes across every sport as they pursue their dreams as Tigers.”
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Gigem on February 06, 2024, 09:37:50 PM
Missouri athletics announced Monday that it received a historic $62 million gift commitment, more than double the previous record donation set in 2012. The donor wished to remain anonymous and designated $50 million for improvements to the football stadium and $12 million will go toward Mizzou's Tiger Fund, the university’s NIL initiative.

"This extraordinary commitment is a major step toward fulfilling our vision to transform Memorial Stadium and create the best college football game-day atmosphere in the country," athletic director Desireé Reed-Francois said in a statement. "Our pivotal stadium project is not possible without our donor, whose passion for Mizzou's success, coupled with humility, faith and generosity, are unparalleled. Mizzou Football fans displayed their passion last season with five consecutive home sellouts, and our donor's momentous contribution will not only enhance those magical experiences at Memorial Stadium but will greatly impact our student-athletes across every sport as they pursue their dreams as Tigers.”
Wasn’t a Walton heir an alumnus?  Be fun to speculate which rich alum it was. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 07, 2024, 06:54:37 PM
Wasn’t a Walton heir an alumnus?  Be fun to speculate which rich alum it was.
There can't be that many to choose from.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 07, 2024, 06:56:58 PM
I'm just saying, going forward

Florida and Miami, Oregon, Clemson, Penn State, FSU will be out

10 win seasons won't mean squat.
Only 2 conference championships are worthwhile

the top 5 or 6 programs will just use the portal and NIL to pull away
You're betting on all 3 FL programs being out?  

mmmmmkay
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on February 07, 2024, 08:27:50 PM
Not only was there no big "Upset Saturday" where a bunch of top teams lost unexpectedly but there were hardly any surprise upsets of any of the top teams all year long. 

Looking at past Ohio State seasons and only counting those where the Buckeyes were good enough to be one of those "top teams":
  • 2023:  11-1, no WTF losses.
  • 2022:  11-2, no WTF losses. 
  • 2021:  11-2, no WTF losses. 
  • 2020:  7-1, no WTF losses. 
  • 2019:  13-1, no WTF losses. 
  • 2018:  13-1, lost by 29 to a Purdue team that finished below .500. 
  • 2017:  12-2, lost by 31 to an Iowa team that finished 8-5. 
  • 2016:  11-2, no WTF losses. 
  • 2015:  12-1, no WTF losses (I'm basing this on MSU's 12-2 final record). 
  • 2014:  14-1, lost by two scores at home to a VaTech team that finished 7-6. 
That is 10 very good seasons and Ohio State had three "WTF" losses in those.  By that math the current top-10 should have around three "WTF" losses and they have none.  In fact the top-15 only really has one (Zona to MsSt).  So I'll go on:
  • 2013:  12-2, no WTF losses. 
  • 2012:  12-0, no WTF losses. 
  • 2011:  not a top team. 
  • 2010:  12-1, no WTF losses. 
  • 2009:  11-2, lost to a Purdue team that finished below .500. 
  • 2008:  10-3, no WTF losses. 
  • 2007:  11-2, lost to an Illinois team that finished 9-4.  This one is kinda borderline. 
  • 2006:  12-1, no WTF losses. 
  • 2005:  10-2, no WTF losses. 
  • 2004, not a top team. 
  • 2003:  11-2, lost to a Wisconsin team that finished 7-6. 
  • 2002:  14-0, no WTF losses. 
  • 1998:  11-1, lost to an MSU team that finished 6-6. 
  • 1985:  9-3, Two of the losses were to IL and UW teams that finished about .500. 
  • 1984:  9-3, Two of the losses were to PU and UW teams that finished about .500. 
  • 1982:  9-3, Two of the losses were to Stanford and UW teams that finished about .500. 
  • 1981:  9-3, Two of the losses were to UW and MN teams that finished about .500. 
  • 1976:  9-2-1, lost to a Mizzou team that finished 6-5. 
  • 1974:  10-2, lost to an MSU team that finished 7-3-1. 
  • 1972:  9-2, lost to an MSU team that finished .500. 

It seems to me that the "WTF Loss" has been a pretty standard occurrence nationally.  It seems like most years we have found ourselves talking about "Team X" that had a very good record and looked great most of the year but had a "bad loss" to a .500ish or below team.  Maybe this year will prove to be an outlier or maybe this is a product of the Portal enabling the top teams to backfill their positions of weakness. 



Day is just good at avoiding the WTF losses. 
Before Mizzou, his worst loss was probably Oregon. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Cincydawg on February 13, 2024, 07:40:18 AM
Mizzou had a hard nosed motivated team least season.  Losing to them in a bowl game isn't that bad.  I wouldn't think OSU was highly motivated in that one.

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on February 13, 2024, 08:15:13 AM

Day is just good at avoiding the WTF losses.
Before Mizzou, his worst loss was probably Oregon.
Mizzou wasn't that bad of a loss imo. I mean yeah, it was bad on it's face, but his starting QB hit the portal weeks before the game and bunch of guys were sitting out of the bowl game. And of course no Marv. Marv changed the entire way defenses had to defend Ohio State- and without him it was just a different team. That wasn't remotely the same team that it was in the regular season.
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on February 13, 2024, 08:16:20 AM
You're betting on all 3 FL programs being out? 

mmmmmkay
yeah that's just stupid. there's way too much talent in the state of Florida. all it takes is the right coach at any one of those programs and they are "back" in a flash. 
Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on February 13, 2024, 09:12:29 AM
Day is just good at avoiding the WTF losses.
Before Mizzou, his worst loss was probably Oregon.
This is something that Day is massively underappreciated for. I think a lot of people just say "well he should beat middling and bad teams, that is easy". 

If it was easy, everyone would do it. Ask Pete Carroll how easy it is. He had multiple NC contenders derailed by WTF losses.

Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer how easy it was to beat middling Iowa and Purdue teams in 2017/2018.

Day is 53-8 as full-time HC (not counting 3-0 filling in for Urban in 2018). The eight losses:

Title: Re: Are the rich already getting richer or is this just a freak thing?
Post by: Mdot21 on February 13, 2024, 09:48:56 AM
This is something that Day is massively underappreciated for. I think a lot of people just say "well he should beat middling and bad teams, that is easy".

If it was easy, everyone would do it. Ask Pete Carroll how easy it is. He had multiple NC contenders derailed by WTF losses.

Closer to home, ask Urban Meyer how easy it was to beat middling Iowa and Purdue teams in 2017/2018.

Day is 53-8 as full-time HC (not counting 3-0 filling in for Urban in 2018). The eight losses:
  • Three were to that season's NC
  • One was to the team that lost that season's NCG
  • Two were to playoff teams
  • Mizzou finished 2023 at 11-2 and #8
  • Oregon finished 2021 at 10-4 and #22
Day is crushing recruiting, crushing his coaching hires- he's about as good as it gets- and he's in serious jeopardy this year- which is kinda f'ing nuts to me. 

Ohio State *should* absolutely 10000% win THE GAME- they just return way more experience- have way more staff continuity- and it's in Columbus. BUT- sh*t happens. Michigan should have a lights out D and that'll keep them in every game- and Donovan Edwards is a big-time play-maker who seems to always make big plays in big games. COULD Michigan win THE GAME? Sure. They could. Is it likely to happen? I think not. Odds are in Ohio State's favor, and I think I'd have them as at least a TD favorite right now- and that's before we know how Michigan's QB/OL situation is going to shake out. 

Day SHOULD be safe in '24 and '25 regardless of what happens in the Michigan games. But his seat is going to be in flames if he loses at home this year to Michigan. And it's kind of bullsh*t and it's definitely crazy, because he's so good- but that game is everything at both schools. COVID saved Jeem from a beatdown in it in 2020 and from the firing block.