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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: MikeDeTiger on November 13, 2023, 11:20:05 AM

Title: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 13, 2023, 11:20:05 AM
After years of LSU weeping and gnashing their teeth over QB play, lamenting "If we only had a decent QB...", the universe and the cfb gods who rule it drops Joe Burrow and Jayden Daniels in our laps in the span of 4 years. 

Of course, the days that LSU could make anything out of a good QB are long behind us, as the defense, special teams, recruiting, coaching, just about everything else, is junk. 

This is not a good team, but Jayden Daniels is the best player in America.  In case you missed it, the kid set three different records Saturday night, an cfb one (only player with 350+ passing and 200+ rushing), an SEC one (most single game total yards), and an LSU one (most QB rushing yards).  He also helped the team to a Florida record, of the bad kind, the most yards ever allowed by a Florida team.  He busted off a TD run of 85 yards where he left Gator DBs in his wake, then topped that with a 51 yard score where he weaved in and out of every level of defender, sometimes juking them individually, sometimes an entire cluster of them, on his way to a score that somehow looked easy.  That last run caused former UGA QB Aaron Murray to drop his jaw and comment he's never seen anything like it.*

Quite simply, the kid is the Gingerbread Man. 

His running ability was obvious last year.  What I didn't see coming was his giant leap forward in being a pure passer.  Even without his legs, he looks like the best QB in America, and would still be top 5 in production.  As it is, he leads the nation in total offense, and according to Murray, has 100 more yards through 10 games than did Joe Burrow in 2019 and the same amount of TDs.  He won't get near Burrow's records because Burrow played 15 games and went mega-nuts down the stretch in the SECCG and playoffs, but pound for pound, he's absolutely having a comparable season. 

Too bad LSU and Kelly run a program that I doubt will field a complete team anytime soon, and if they ever do manage it, the odds are so far against lightning striking twice in 4 years like this that they get even infinitesimally smaller to ever see it again at LSU.  Congrats to them for wasting a generational player who somehow showed up for the second time in a generation. 

But Daniels is still amazing and fun to watch. 


*I have, imo.  While JD isn't the long-strider Vince Young was and has a different running motion, the way they seemed to float on air and dance in and around defenders who can never seem to get their hands on them are very similar.  Aaron Murray was probably just a pimple-faced kid when VY was doing his thing.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: rolltidefan on November 13, 2023, 12:06:21 PM
agreed, daniels is best cfb player this season, and i don't think it's all that close either. he's certainly fun to watch, unless he's shredding your team. hope he goes early in nfl, cause he needs to get out of cfb before we have to play him again.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2023, 12:30:29 PM
I just read that Alabama has never lost in the MB dome in 7 games.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 13, 2023, 12:39:20 PM
He's a senior, he's out of eligibility. 

I wanted to see if this offense (and Jayden) could do it against Alabama and PFF's two highest graded cornerbacks.  I can't see down the field on TV but they clearly covered our WRs better than he's used to because we saw him hold the ball longer and have to run more when he didn't trust the throw.  But he scampered through Alabama the same as everyone else, and eventually started finding some throws he liked. 

Mason Taylor's drive-killing drop in the 3rd quarter was absolutely brutal, and even though the LSU OL has been possibly the best in the nation, they didn't have the mental steel of the 2019 OL, because Bryant-Denny and the threat of Bama's front 7 definitely got in their heads, causing multiple false starts, which killed at least one other drive.  After Taylor's drop I knew the defense was well past stopping anything and the game was over, even before Daniels was knocked out. 

However, Daniels himself played rather well overall, I thought, and had he gone more than 3 quarters he was on pace for about as good of a game as I think you can possibly have against the Tide defense.  JMO, but I think LSU scores at least once more, and 35 is a lot of points on that D. 

Florida has not been good on defense, but it's still an SEC team and the records are noteworthy, imo, particularly coming off a mild concussion the previous week.  He'll have one more chance to do something against a good defense when A&M comes in.  Doubt he wins the Heisman, but he should, imo. 
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2023, 12:44:05 PM
He should at least be a finalist, I think it goes to some QB on a better team.  I don't pay much attention to the Heisman "race".

Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 13, 2023, 12:54:35 PM
Probably Penix or Bo Nix would be my guess.  Maybe Jayden can win the Davey O'Brien award. 

In other news, how crazy is that Bo Nix is probably the leading contender right now?  Who would've ever thought that in his Auburn days?  Not me.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 13, 2023, 01:07:57 PM
Me too on Nix.  He never looked good when facing UGA anyway.  Good luck to him.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: rolltidefan on November 13, 2023, 02:26:35 PM
ngl, dude had me nervous. our offense might not have needed your defense to stop us for you guys to get back in it. we're good at that ourselves sometimes.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 14, 2023, 09:50:44 AM
Heisman Trophy odds

[th]PLAYER[/th]
[th]ODDS[/th]
Bo Nix (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426338/bo-nix)+100
Michael Penix Jr (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4360423/michael-penix-jr).+300
Jayden Daniels (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4426348/jayden-daniels)+400
Marvin Harrison Jr (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432708/marvin-harrison-jr).+450
Carson Beck (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4430841/carson-beck)+4000
Jalen Milroe (http://www.espn.com/college-football/player/_/id/4432734/jalen-milroe)+5000

Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 14, 2023, 11:18:46 AM
A tweet from some guy at The Athletic:

Most plays of 20+ yards in 2023:

76 - Jayden Daniels (this guy is ridiculous)
75
74
73
72
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
62
61
60
59
58
57 - Michael Penix
56
55 - Caleb Williams





Presumably true stats, but mostly I just thought it was funny that he chose to write out all the numbers to make his point.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 20, 2023, 11:04:25 AM
Currently:

Total YPG
Nix         333.4
Penix      335.5
Daniels   417.4

Total YPP
Penix      8.85
Nix         9.12
Daniels   10.75

Passing YPG
Nix         321.7  
Daniels   325.2
Penix      335.9

Passing YPA             
Penix      9.4
Nix         9.8
Daniels   11.8

Total pass yards
Nix         3539  (on 58 more attempts than Daniels)
Daniels   3577
Penix      3695  (on 91 more attempts than Daniels)

Passing TDs
Penix      30   (7 INTs)
Nix         35   (2 INTs)
Daniels   36   (4 INTs)

Rushing stats
Daniels   1014 yds, 92.18 ypg, 8.18 avg, 10 TDs
Nix         lololololololololololololol
Penix      lololololololololololololol

Daniels has played 56 fewer downs than Nix (likely because his defense can't get him the ball back in a timely manner), potentially equal to 8 drives, 5 TDs, 35 points and 400 yds.  Don't have info on Penix's number of downs played. 

Still don't expect JD5 to win the Heisman, but I'm just documenting a list of things to complain about years from now when I'm still bitter about it.  

Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2023, 08:31:32 PM
Bo Nix would still be average in the SEC.  He wasn't good enough.  Suddenly, he's amazing.  Hmm, wonder why.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 20, 2023, 08:47:02 PM
Yards are great and all, but you need to score TDs. 

Daniels vs all-time great seasons (SEC):
65  Burrow - LSU
55  Tebow - FLA
51  Newton - AUB
50  Young - ALA
48  Tagovailoa - ALA
47  Manziel - A&M
46  Daniels - LSU
46  Trask - FLA
46  Manziel - A&M
45  Lock - MIZ
.
Props to the guys with 20+ rushing TDs (Tebow, Newton, Manziel (47)).
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 20, 2023, 10:30:41 PM
Burrow played 15 games, there's no way for Daniels to even get close to that.  But he is on par with 2019 Burrow through 11 games, although they get in done in different ways. 
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2023, 07:23:26 AM
Nix wasn't all that his first year at Oregon, I think he improved.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 21, 2023, 09:37:02 AM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on November 20, 2023, 10:30:41 PM
Burrow played 15 games, there's no way for Daniels to even get close to that.  But he is on par with 2019 Burrow through 11 games, although they get in done in different ways.

Actually, Daniels is ahead of Burrow in total production.  He's about 500 yards behind Burrow in passing yards through 11 games, but adds 1000+ rushing.  Add in Burrow's 240 rushing yds at this point, and Daniels is roughly 250 yds ahead of Burrow, with 3 more TDs accounted for so far.  Burrow was at 11.1 ypa passing thru 11 games, Daniels is at 11.8

Quite something.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2023, 10:31:22 AM
I'd guess he gets an invite to NYC along with Nix and Penix and ... ?

Bowers?  I don't expect Brock to win of course, but it would be nice were he to be invited.  For him, signing some contract will be nice too.  How high in the draft could a TE go?  He's the best TE UGA has ever had in my view, but far.

Heck, his backup is also pretty good.  And his backup.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 21, 2023, 01:03:24 PM
How many Heisman contenders get to go to New York?  Marvin Harrison, Jr. is getting some push within sports media.  He's probably a shoe-in for the Biletnikoff, although his numbers don't match either of LSU's two main WRs.  But the Biletnikoff usually doesn't go to the WR with the most receiving yards, TDs, etc. 

Daniels is currently the odds-on favorite for the Heisman, but the odds are subject to change every weekend, and I see three problems Daniels has.  First, he only has one more game to play, and nobody will be watching it.  A&M @ LSU will take place at the same time as Ohio State @ Michigan, and whatever Daniels does, nobody will see it, as everyone will be watching "The Game."  Next, Penix and Nix will likely be playing in the PAC12 CG while Daniels and LSU sit at home.  They'll not only get to run their passing numbers potentially past Daniels, but also they'll have a lot of voters' undivided attention, giving them more chances for "Heisman moments."  And voters are notorious for "what have you done for me lately," i.e., whoever is the last awesome performance they saw sticks in their mind the most and sways the votes big time.  Finally, those first two factors will be combined with LSU having 3 losses (assuming LSU doesn't lose to A&M), and many voters do not like voting for candidates on teams who aren't in contention for anything. 

If LSU loses to A&M, Daniels won't even get an invite even if he goes off for 700 yards all by himself.  If LSU remains a 3 loss team, I suspect the current sentiment will shift back to Nix as Daniels is basically done impressing the voters, while the other candidates are going to have a couple more chances on big stages.  Probably, Nix at least needs to have a bad game against Oregon State or Washington in the PAC12 CG. 
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 21, 2023, 01:08:12 PM
Four usually, I think.  Stetson Bennett was there last year.

I think Carson Beck could be the best pure passer UGA ever had, including the guy with the Rams.  He'll get a nice check next year.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2023, 02:59:45 PM
3-5 go to NYC, depending where there's a voting drop-off.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 22, 2023, 03:00:55 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 21, 2023, 10:31:22 AM
I'd guess he gets an invite to NYC along with Nix and Penix and ... ?

Bowers?  I don't expect Brock to win of course, but it would be nice were he to be invited.  For him, signing some contract will be nice too.  How high in the draft could a TE go?  He's the best TE UGA has ever had in my view, but far.

Heck, his backup is also pretty good.  And his backup.
(https://i.imgur.com/uMPh2ZY.jpg)






Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: gymvol on November 26, 2023, 12:42:37 PM

If you want to know who will win the Heisman just watch ESPN to see who their favorite is that's where the voters get their information.  Most of those voting seldom see the top candidates play.

Unless games are national telecasts most of those voting never get see the regional broadcasts of football games. They only see high lights on ESPN or other sporting broadcasts in their area. 
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on November 26, 2023, 12:54:27 PM
Oregon seems to be out of the major limelight playing most of their games late.

Jayden's numbers are there for all to see without watching a down.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 27, 2023, 11:00:11 AM
Looks like the graphic is cut off.  You have to click the link to open a separate tab to see the whole thing.  The biggest thing missing in this page is the final line, strength of schedule.  Daniels (LSU) = 7, the other two are 46 and 62.  Although I don't know where this SOS is coming from.  

https://twitter.com/CodyWorsham/status/1728824174171591089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1728824174171591089%7Ctwgr%5Ebbda9b4c13c412ad520bfc7334ea6822ae89ea79%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.dandydon.com%2Ffrom-twitter%2Fjayden-daniels-heisman-comparison%2F
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 30, 2023, 03:34:22 PM
Looks like the writing is pretty well on the wall.  Oregon is favored over Washington, probably with good reason imo.  If Oregon wins this weekend, the Heisman is probably going to Bo Nix. 

I will be really, really, really disappointed for Jayden.  Typically to win the Heisman with 3 losses, you need to be a statistical outlier....an anomaly.  Which is precisely what he is.  But the tea leaves say it doesn't matter this time. 

And not just an outlier for this season.  His 208 passer rating is an NCAA record and would rank first among Heisman winners all-time.  His 412.2 total ypg would be the best by a Heisman winner since 1989.  His 8.4 ypc would rank first among Heisman winners all-time.  His 10.7 ypp would rank first among Heisman winners all-time.  His 11.7 ypa would rank first among Heisman winners all-time.  He's the only player in SEC history to have 500 yards of offense in back-to-back games, and one of only two have 3500+ passing and 1000+ rushing. 

And it's going to go to Bo freakin' Nix.  It hasn't even happened yet and I pre-despise the Heisman voters.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: rolltidefan on December 01, 2023, 12:57:51 PM
unfortunately for him with 3 losses you need to be a stats phenom, which he is, but also not have a cfp contender have a stellar year themselves. nix, as loathsome as this is to admit, is having a stellar year. not near as good as daniels, but nix is about to set an ncaa record for comp%, has great yds, great td/in ratio, and an all around great year.

daniels, imo, is pretty clearly the best player in cfb this season, like tebow in 07. but there wasn't a title contending team with a great player that year, either.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on December 01, 2023, 01:00:42 PM
Bo Nix, QB, Oregon (-180): Nix has overtaken Daniels as the favorite, and he has the added advantage of playing in the PAC-12 Championship Game to make one more impression on the voters while Daniels and the Tigers fell shy of of a SEC Championship berth. Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU (+140): The transfer is putting up video game numbers through the air and on the ground, but might be a signature win short of the trophy. Michael Penix Jr., QB, Washington (+1600): The leader of the offense has the Huskies into the top four of the latest CFB Playoff rankings. The odds suggest he will need to beat Nix and the Ducks in the PAC-12 Championship.

Read more at: https://www.miamiherald.com/betting/article277035673.html#storylink=cpy
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 01, 2023, 01:45:49 PM
If they think Daniels lacks a signature win, they must've missed the Missouri game.  He put on a cape and single-handedly beat Missouri with his defense tied behind his back, AND he persisted through a bruised/cracked rib when Missouri blasted him, only to come back and keep scoring TDs. 

"Signature win" is a silly concept in the first place, though.  His best performance might be Ole Miss, but unfortunately he can't play defense.  Or it could've been A&M or Bama, whose defenses are highly rated both by advanced metrics and raw stats, and he made both units look mid.  It doesn't affect you being "The most outstanding player in cfb" when your defense never forces a punt after their first possession.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 01, 2023, 02:05:46 PM
Quote from: rolltidefan on December 01, 2023, 12:57:51 PM
unfortunately for him with 3 losses you need to be a stats phenom, which he is, but also not have a cfp contender have a stellar year themselves. nix, as loathsome as this is to admit, is having a stellar year. not near as good as daniels, but nix is about to set an ncaa record for comp%, has great yds, great td/in ratio, and an all around great year.

daniels, imo, is pretty clearly the best player in cfb this season, like tebow in 07. but there wasn't a title contending team with a great player that year, either.

It's true that Tebow was a fall-back winner in 2007.  Some may not remember, but the Heisman was Dennis Dixon's to lose (Oregon) until he got injured for the season.  I don't remember Lamar Jackson compared to other contenders, or Manziel.  They're not the only 3-loss winners, though.  I believe RG3 was as well, and Baylor wasn't competing for anything in 2011.

I think you're right that there needed to be no other viable candidate this year.  What I think is egregious is that if you consider their numbers, there really aren't any other viable candidates.  Nix will lead comp%, and that's it.  Strictly looking at passing, Daniels beats out Nix in pretty much every category you can think of (see chart above), against a much tougher schedule.  In the 10% of categories he isn't ahead of Nix or Penix, he's right there behind them with the other guy trailing appreciably....meaning that even in the few categories he doesn't win outright, he's the best combination of the categories he doesn't lead compared to the other two.  

And that's just strictly as a passer.  Then you factor in his rushing production and he laughably separates himself among the three.  

As noted above, his numbers would be Heisman all-time bests in numerous categories.  He's a Heisman winner among Heisman winners.  We're talking about a guy who exceeded Joe Burrow's 2019 season, the biggest landslide winner in Heisman history.  They want to distinguish between them because Burrow.....had a competent defense?  

To me, it seems like the drastic difference in production should easily outweigh the difference in losses, but that doesn't seem to be the sentiment, far as I can tell.  

Voters who actually watched the games and don't just look at numbers should see something similar.  Forget the stats....if you've watched all three, imagine putting Daniels on Washington's team.....they'd still be undefeated.  Put him on Oregon and the Ducks would be undefeated (the voters should have seen Nix had the chance to pull out the win against Washington but he derped and couldn't do it....he failed in his only big game, whereas none of Daniels' losses can be pinned on him).  Put either Penix or Nix on LSU and LSU would have AT LEAST one more loss, because no way does LSU beat Missouri with anyone other than Daniels, they wouldn't have even been in position for a hail mary vs. Ole Miss, and they would've done jack squat against Bama.  

I know I'm preaching to the choir, it just mystifies me how glaring the difference between the choices is, and how the trend is in Nix's favor anyway.  It's not like Daniels is slightly ahead of them.  If that were the case, I'd probably forgive the voters.  But it's not even close, and if they fail to reward a literal historic season, well, they suck.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: rolltidefan on December 04, 2023, 06:04:11 PM
last i've seen has daniels front runner. maybe @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) made enough noise after all.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 05, 2023, 12:53:31 AM
Bo Nix couldn't cut it in the SEC.  Why reward him for facing 2nd-rate defenses?  

Daniels has had an all-time great season.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on December 05, 2023, 12:59:12 AM
Fun fact:  Daniels has 57 passing TDs at LSU.

Tebow had 57 rushing TDs at Florida.
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 05, 2023, 10:42:59 AM
Quote from: rolltidefan on December 04, 2023, 06:04:11 PM
last i've seen has daniels front runner. maybe @MikeDeTiger (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1588) made enough noise after all.

I do what I can. 

Nix seems to have lost it in the PAC CG but I wouldn't be surprised if they just turn around and give it to Penix, whose td/int line was meh in the game, but he did have an overall great game on the big stage.  But yeah, Vegas favors Daniels heavily at the moment.  Don't know how closely that correlates with actual winners.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 09, 2023, 11:24:38 AM
Nabers lost the Belitnikoff by a vote.  I'm actually surprised he got that close.  It doesn't matter that you win every category when the competition's name has "Marvin Harrison" in it.  
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 09, 2023, 11:56:55 PM
Woot!
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: Cincydawg on December 10, 2023, 06:21:15 AM
It's kinda funny, really, the Oregon guy lost it because his team lost a last game, I suspect.  JD won it by sitting home.

Such awards never meant much of anything to me, especially one of this nature.  Maybe one devoted to a single position, which this one almost is de facto, is a bit of a something.  I can't even recall who won last year.  


Anyway, good for Daniels, I hope it enhances his draft status (which of course it shouldn't).
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 10, 2023, 01:53:32 PM
Bryce Young won it last year. 
Title: Re: We need to talk about Jayden
Post by: MikeDeTiger on December 12, 2023, 10:04:27 AM
Well, I guess I proved CD's point.....Bryce Young did not win it last year, that was two years ago.  Caleb Williams won it last year.