CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: LittlePig on November 08, 2023, 09:24:07 AM
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Big Ten currently has 5 schools that are bowl elligible
Ohio St 9-0, Mich 9-0, PSU 8-1, Iowa 7-2, Rut 6-3
1 team is eliminated PUR 2-7
At least 2 more schools are guarunteed to make a bowl, and 1 more is guarunteed to be eliminated because they play each other. So Big Ten could have as many as 12 schools make a bowl and as few as 7. Odds are it will be around 9 teams make a bowl. Teams still alive are listed below.
MD 5-4, needs 1 win, games @Neb, Mich, @Rut, chances to make a bowl 75%
Neb 5-4, needs 1 win, games MD, @Wisc, Iowa, bowl chances 88%
Wisc 5-4, needs 1 win, games NW, Neb, @Minn, bowl chances 88%
Minn 5-4, needs 1 win, games @Pur, @OSU, Wisc, bowl chances 75%
2 teams are 2 wins from being bowl elligle and they play each other. Odds are good the winner of NW-ILL game goes to a bowl, the loser does not.
NW 4-5, Needs 2 wins, games @Wisc, PUR, @ILL, bowl chances 50%
ILL 4-5, Needs 2 wins, games Ind, @Iowa, NW, bowl chances 50%
There are 2 teams that need 3 wins and they play each other.
Ind 3-6, needs 3 wins, games @ILL, MSU, @Pur, bowl chances 13%
MSU 3-6, needs 3 wins, games @OSU, @Ind, PSU, bowl chances <1%
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Where are you coming up with those stats?
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Where are you coming up with those stats?
Lol, I figure any game not against OSU, Mich and PSU, a team has a 50% chance of winning. Any game against OSU, Mich, PSU the teams have a zero percent chance. I could go into more detail if you like, but that's the idea.
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The SEC well may not fill up its bowling calendar. Florida has to win out, and could but probably won't. Arky has to win out and probably won't. South Carolina, same thing. Miss State, probably no bowl. Vandy? Ha.
O'Gara: Bowl or no bowl? Breaking down each SEC team's chances at the postseason (saturdaydownsouth.com) (https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/bowl-or-no-bowl-which-sec-teams-reach-postseason-2023/)
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Florida just has to win 1 more game, but I agree. They probably won't.
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When they created the Motor City Bowl, and Perles was the first commissioner, back when it expanded Big Ten bowl tie ins from 5 to 6, everyone joked that was going to be the MSU Bowl.
Instead, absent ending the season on a 4 game winning streak, we are at 25 years, and MSU has never played in it, because they are always too good, or not good enough to be bowl eligible.
Since then, the only times MSU were 6-5 (or 6-6) once they went to 12, were 2001, 2009, 2012, and 2019. In the 26 years since then, MSU has been a top 15 team 9 times, and ineligible 8 times.
It's a roller coaster baby!
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Big Ten Bowl Projectiins
CFP playoff Bowl -, Sugar - Georgia VS Oregon
CFP playoff Bowl - Rose - Michigan VS FSU
NY6 Bowl - Fiesta - Wash VS Ohio St
NY6 Bowl - Peach - Bama VS Tulane
NY6 Bowl - Cotton - Texas VS PSU
NY6 Bowl - Orange - Ole Miss VS Lou
Big Ten Bowl projections
1. Mich - CFP playoff Bowl - Rose
2. Ohio St - NY6 Bowl - Fiesta
3. PSU - NY6 Bowl - Cotton
4. Neb - Citrus (Orlando)
5. Rut - Reliaquest (Tampa)
6. Iowa - Las Vegas
7. Wisc - Music City ( Nashville)
8. Minn - Guarunteed rate bowl (Pheonix arizona)
9. ILL - Pinstripe (NYC)
10. NW or MD - quick lane bowl ( Detroit)
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Big Ten Bowl projections
4. Neb - Citrus (Orlando)
5. Rut - Reliaquest (Tampa)
6. Iowa - Las Vegas
7. Wisc - Music City ( Nashville)
8. Minn - Guarunteed rate bowl (Pheonix arizona)
9. ILL - Pinstripe (NYC)
10. NW or MD - quick lane bowl ( Detroit)
I see bloodbath. That's all I see.
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I saw on another board that there may be only 76 bowl elligible schools with 80 slots to fill. This is a moving number that may move up or down as teams win and lose. But given the current projections, The next 2 slots #77 and #78 would go to JMU and Jax St, who are in the 2nd year of transition to FBS from FCS.
After that the final 2 slots are filled with teams with 5-7 records, by APR rank. Here are the top ranked APR schools but a lot of these may get 6 wins anyway. So there is a chance NW, Wisc and Minn might get a bowl bid anyway with 5 wins.
Northwestern 996
Wisconsin 996
Clemson 995
Cincinnati 994
Minnesota 992
Wake Forest 992
Boise State 988
Iowa State 987
Rice 987
Auburn 985
Mississippi State 985
Central Florida 984
Pitt 983
South Carolina 983
Virginia 983
Michigan State 982
Stanford 982
Ball State 980
Baylor 980
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I think we'll see 4-5 5 win teams in bowls. And I think many of us here will semi--watch those games.
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I'm surprised BB doesn't have Illinois on that APR list. He always ran a tight academic ship. Maybe he lost a lot of players when he came in. I don't know.
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The APR doesn't really make sense as a metric in the transfer portal era
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The APR thing can and often is gamed.
NCAA Academic Progress Rate: 2023 APR Football Rankings 1-133 - College Football News | College Football Predictions, Analysis and Updates (https://collegefootballnews.com/rankings/ncaa-academic-progress-rate-2023-apr-football-rankings-1-to-133)
Alabama and Ole Miss are tied for 3rd, nationally.
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I'm surprised BB doesn't have Illinois on that APR list. He always ran a tight academic ship. Maybe he lost a lot of players when he came in. I don't know.
he doesn't have to take the same recruits as he did in Madison
Wonder how he did at Arky?
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he doesn't have to take the same recruits as he did in Madison
Wonder how he did at Arky?
My guess is he got too many high academic kids to compete in the SEC.
Illinois' admission standards are on par with Wisconsin's.
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When I was in school, the "jock" courses were well known. One was Geology 101, called "rocks for jocks". The professor was a football fan.
Non-athletes also flocked to those classes which were very popular.
It's akin to giving summer jobs to players at local car dealerships and the players show up once, maybe.
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The APR doesn't really make sense as a metric in the transfer portal era
I would just prefer whoever has gone the longest without making a bowl.