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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2023, 09:05:21 AM

Title: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2023, 09:05:21 AM
Saturday, November 11, 2023

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Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 05, 2023, 03:57:59 PM
Georgia and Ole Miss are colliding in a massive SEC showdown. And the Bulldogs, who haven't lost a game since 2021, are still comfortable favorites. The hosting Bulldogs open as 11.5-point favorites over the visiting Rebels, per FanDuel's sportsbook. The over/under opened at 56.5 points.


UGA has not covered most lines this season.  A one point win works for me.  The injuries are piling up, but they are for everyone.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2023, 10:44:59 AM
The other interesting matchup is Tenn at Mizzou, unless you want to include Bama as a possible upset candidate.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2023, 11:22:38 AM
Florida @ LSU could count as interesting, at least inasmuch as prior to Saturday LSU would have been reasonably favored by 10+ and now LSU is hoping for a shootout at best, if not being an outright dog to UF.

I expect Daniels won't play, leaving the LSU offense highly neutralized.  Meanwhile, Florida is about to meet the Perpetually Moving Object, or whatever is the opposite of an Immovable Object. 

Heard a former LSU defender on a podcast for one of the popular LSU talking heads yesterday say this defense didn't look like it could stop his son's middle school offense, and he's not even sure what percentage he's joking about that. 


Way to go, Woodward.  You saddled A&M with Jimbo, and now LSU with Kelly.  Got any other schools you'd like to get financially inextricably tied to an overpaid coach with no ability to deliver?  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2023, 12:03:27 PM
[color=rgba(0, 0, 0, 0.72)]LSU starts the week favored by 13.5 points over Florida according to BetMGM. Here are the full odds as of 9 a.m. ET Monday.[/color]
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2023, 12:28:33 PM
UGA has rarely covered this year, and I expect the same with OM, hopefully a W, but close.  Mobile Qbs cause UGA issues.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 06, 2023, 12:59:07 PM
There's been no announcement that Daniels won't play.  I expect the line would be different if that were to happen.  Kelly is the cagiest about player participation I've ever seen, so we may not know until kickoff.

However, we know he was held out for concussion protocol, we know that concussions are often straightforward to assess, we know he didn't return for an entire quarter, and we know you would never, ever abandon your team in that situation if the medical staff weren't holding you out, and last I knew concussion protocol prohibits you from playing for two weeks. 

Guess we'll see.  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 06, 2023, 01:17:04 PM
Jayden Daniels injury update: LSU QB in concussion protocol vs. Alabama (theadvertiser.com) (https://www.theadvertiser.com/story/sports/college/lsu/2023/11/04/jayden-daniels-injury-update-lsu-qb-leaves-alabama-game-roughing-passer-dallas-turner/71462635007/)

Updated NCAA Concussion Protocol Requirements and Compliance with the Arrington Settlement Agreement | Bond Schoeneck & King PLLC - JDSupra (https://www.jdsupra.com/legalnews/updated-ncaa-concussion-protocol-41787/)
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 07, 2023, 11:36:36 AM
Alabama 30  UK 13

USCe  27  Vandy 16

Mizzou  27  Tenn 24

Auburn 27  Arky 17

UGA 31  Ole Miss 28

LSU  38  Florida 27

A&M  33  MSU  10
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 07, 2023, 12:24:44 PM
Let's see if we can predict Florida's score in this game.  Some quick info on a handful of LSU's opponents, taking out scrub games:


(https://i.imgur.com/bzJPVa2.png)


Pardon the ugly format, I spent zero time trying to make this look good. 

In all cases, these teams scored a season high of points against LSU, with an average +13 pts scored vs. LSU as opposed to other games played. 

Florida has scored an average of 27 pts vs. non-scrub teams.  +13 would put them at 40 pts, which would not be a season high, but almost, and is in line with what they scored vs. Vandy and USC (38, 41), the only two defenses giving up more ypg than LSU.  And even USC is better than LSU on a ypp basis. 

Yeah, I know.....games aren't played on a spreadsheet.  Just a bit of fun, but I also expect this is indicative of a real trend.  LSU probably needs to put up 40+ to win.  Hope Daniels is available and at full capacity.  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 07, 2023, 07:55:58 PM
Don't worry, our defense sucks, too.  If Daniels plays, you'll score 40+.

We lost to Arkansas.  At home.  With bowl eligibility on the line.  Fuck, just the fact I typed that last part shows the state our program is in.  
Forget iit.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 07, 2023, 09:13:02 PM
All good, we nearly lost to Arkansas at home too, and would've if they could've stopped false-starting.  Accurate to say they beat themselves moreso than we beat them. 

UF @ LSU is on SECN, I see.  Geez....anybody remember when these teams were powers and CBS couldn't option the slot fast enough? 
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 08, 2023, 07:55:49 AM
There could be upsets anywhere on this list, and likely will be some.  Tenn at Mizzou is a one point spread, not much of an upset really.

Bama could lay an egg in Lex.  LSU could do an LSU.  UGA is "due" for an egg.  I'm most confident in A&M so far.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 10, 2023, 12:54:46 PM
A lot of noise that Bowers is going to play at least a few downs.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on November 11, 2023, 09:41:45 PM
Florida is gifted a 2nd TD on a drive with like 40 yards of penalties on LSU.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 11, 2023, 11:07:33 PM
I picked all the winners, I think, first time this year.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Cincydawg on November 12, 2023, 06:43:33 AM
Is Missouri a pretty solid team?  They gave UGA fits, in Athens.  They lost to LSU who can score in bunches.  I don't know who would be the third best SEC team at this point except Mizzou.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 12, 2023, 10:05:38 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2023, 06:43:33 AM
Is Missouri a pretty solid team?  They gave UGA fits, in Athens.  They lost to LSU who can score in bunches.  I don't know who would be the third best SEC team at this point except Mizzou.

I think so.  Offense is rather good and defense has a pulse.  Well coached and dangerous, imo.  Since I don't think losing to LSU was a fluke I'd put them 5th, behind UGA/Bama....significant gap....Ole Miss, LSU, Mizzou, etc.  I expect them to best Florida at home, but UF will be fighting for bowl eligibility, so who knows. 

Mizzou vs. Ole Miss would be interesting.  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: Gigem on November 12, 2023, 11:05:14 AM
A&M blasts Mississippi A&M. Coincidentally news gets out that we’re firing fisher. Hmm….you have to wonder how the team responded to that. Angry?  Or happy?  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: MikeDeTiger on November 12, 2023, 03:03:43 PM
Quote from: Gigem on November 12, 2023, 11:05:14 AM
A&M blasts Mississippi A&M. Coincidentally news gets out that we’re firing fisher. Hmm….you have to wonder how the team responded to that. Angry?  Or happy? 

Huh.  Never seen a guy fired for $76 mil after a win before.  
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: nwms on November 12, 2023, 03:11:30 PM
between buyouts & the new staff they'll spend $100 million+ easy.  what's next highest....whatever aub spent to get rid of gus?  arky moving on pittman too i think.  unsurprising all the way around.  jimbo's fate has been sealed for awhile, timing is whatev.
Title: Re: Week 11 Games (Closure?)
Post by: nwms on November 12, 2023, 03:24:16 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on November 12, 2023, 06:43:33 AM
Is Missouri a pretty solid team?  They gave UGA fits, in Athens.  They lost to LSU who can score in bunches.  I don't know who would be the third best SEC team at this point except Mizzou.

we're pretty good.  been a fun season so far.