CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 11, 2023, 03:31:50 PM
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B1G-W:
As I said elsewhere, if Wisconsin beats Iowa this weekend, you can pretty much write in "Badgers" as the B1G-W representative in Indianapolis. An Iowa win would put the Hawkeyes in the driver's seat, but they would be less assured than a victorious Wisconsin.
B1G-E:
I just can't see how Maryland can recover from the loss to tOSU to get in this race. They simply aren't as good as the Big Three so they needed to take advantage when they were in the game after halftime and they just couldn't do it.
That brings us the the Big Three and it is pretty simple. If one of them can sweep the other two, they are in even if they do lose an upset somewhere else. If not then either whoever loses in an upset is out and the winner of the other two goes or else the final and most interesting possibility:
If #2 Michigan, #3 Ohio State, and #6 Penn State all finish 11-1/8-1 then the team that goes to the B1GCG will be the team whose B1G-W opponents have the best cumulative league record. As of right now that stands at:
4-4 Ohio State:
- 2-0 Wisconsin
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-2 Purdue
3-6 Michigan:
- 1-2 Nebraska
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-2 Purdue
3-6 Penn State:
- 2-1 Iowa
- 1-2 Northwestern
- 0-3 Illinois
Northwestern's upset win over Minnesota is the only thing keeping Penn State even in this race. Had Minnesota won that game the Buckeyes' opponents would be 5-3, the Wolverines' would be 4-5, and Penn States' would be 2-7.
The Buckeyes are big Badger fans this weekend because a Wisconsin win helps tOSU AND hurts PSU.
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I just love that 3-way tiebreakers in the east can maybe be decided by who won the NW-Minn game.
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I just love that 3-way tiebreakers in the east can maybe be decided by who won the NW-Minn game.
mind blowing really lol.
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I just love that 3-way tiebreakers in the east can maybe be decided by who won the NW-Minn game.
mind blowing really lol.
It is funny, but it is also extremely unlikely.
It looks like PSU is screwed here because the two Illinois schools look terrible.
That leaves tOSU and M and they share PU and MN so the only issue is how UNL compares to UW. As an Ohio State fan I feel pretty good about that in the event of a three-way tie. If Wisconsin beats Iowa this weekend I'll feel really good.
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So Iowa-Wisconsin might not only decide the west, but also the east?
Penn St gets Iowa, and OSU gets Wisconsin, with the relevant tie breaker being the crossover opponent record.
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I just love that 3-way tiebreakers in the east can maybe be decided by who won the NW-Minn game.
As Woody and Bo willed it.
At least it's two long term members. Imagine Minnesota missing out on their first CCG because of the result of a Rutgers-Maryland game
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As Woody and Bo willed it.
At least it's two long term members. Imagine Minnesota missing out on their first CCG because of the result of a Rutgers-Maryland game
Charters >> interlopers.
It just means more.
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Charters >> interlopers.
It just means more.
Depending on how far you want to go back, The Big Ten next year will have almost as many interlopers as charters.
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Already do.
2024 will have 12 interlopers to 6 charters (or 13/5 if you don't count Michigan as a charter since they left for a while).
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13/5
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Already do.
2024 will have 12 interlopers to 6 charters (or 13/5 if you don't count Michigan as a charter since they left for a while).
I am ashamed I don't know this, but who were the original charter members of the conference?
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Chicago
Illinois
Michigan (left for 10 years)
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa and Indiana joined in 1899. OSU joined in 1912. Michigan came back in 1917. Chicago dropped football in 1939 and left for good in 1946. MSU joined in 1950.
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If the bean counters pared it back down to ten, Michigan and Wisconsin are about the only two charter members that would make the cut. And the Wolverines get a giant asterisk for leaving and coming back.
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If the bean counters pared it back down to ten, Michigan and Wisconsin are about the only two charter members that would make the cut. And the Wolverines get a giant asterisk for leaving and coming back.
Probably so.
Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Penn State
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington
And??
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Chicago
Illinois
Michigan (left for 10 years)
Minnesota
Northwestern
Purdue
Wisconsin
Iowa and Indiana joined in 1899. OSU joined in 1912. Michigan came back in 1917. Chicago dropped football in 1939 and left for good in 1946. MSU joined in 1950.
Lake Forest attended the first meeting and Michigan did not.
Somewhere between the discussion meeting and the charter meeting Michigan replaced Lake Forest.
I've said before that the Michigan for Lake Forest swap is probably one of the most consequential changes in league (and possibly CFB in general) history.
The conference with Lake Forest instead of Michigan is:
Three private, Chicago-area schools:
- Northwestern
- Chicago
- Lake Forest
Three large public schools in or adjacent to the Chicagoland area:
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Wisconsin
One large public school further away:
My guess is that THAT conference would have expanded with more Chicagoland schools and remained basically a "Greater Chicago" conference.
The big State schools would eventually have left for some alternative made up completely (or at least mostly) of schools such as themselves.
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If you had Lake Forest, the original league would have looked similar to the ACC with all those NC schools clustered (Wake was in that cluster before moving to Winston-Salem).
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Probably so.
Michigan
Wisconsin
Ohio State
Penn State
USC
UCLA
Oregon
Washington
And??
Nebraska, of course. It's all about brands and ratings.
I'd postulate that the ten spot would come down to either Michigan State or Iowa.
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of course
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Nebraska, of course. It's all about brands and ratings.
I'd postulate that the ten spot would come down to either Michigan State or Iowa.
Not so fast my friends. Minnesota and Illinois have higher academic rankings and are THE flagship universities in 6M+ popolution states. Nebraska and Iowa have been sliding in academic rankings and are in small population states. Football history and attendance is strong at Nebraska but that also has been in decline. Nebraska would have been a shoo-in 10 years ago but today not such a slam dunk. Don't underestimate the academic snob factor.
Of course that kind of logic says take Stanford over Oregon, so what do I know?
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Academics? Lol.
They could have added Stanford and Cal for free, and took a hard pass.
It's all about football brands and ratings at this point. They are making TV events.
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Academics? Lol.
They could have added Stanford and Cal for free, and took a hard pass.
It's all about football brands and ratings at this point. They are making TV events.
In the end probably none of Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Ind, Neb, Iowa would be big enough for the new streamed-down Big Ten. They would probably add Notre Dame and Texas instead.
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they've tried to add ND & UT
had to settle
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Academics? Lol.
They could have added Stanford and Cal for free, and took a hard pass.
It's all about football brands and ratings at this point. They are making TV events.
Again, Stanford said no to sharing academics with the B1G, they cut themselves out.
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Again, Stanford said no to sharing academics with the B1G, they cut themselves out.
I have no inside knowledge and I know nothing but that sure sounds like B. S. to me.
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I have no inside knowledge and I know nothing but that sure sounds like B. S. to me.
I don't think it is. The PAC has very weak academic ties, and the ACC has none.
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B1G-W:
As I said elsewhere, if Wisconsin beats Iowa this weekend, you can pretty much write in "Badgers" as the B1G-W representative in Indianapolis. An Iowa win would put the Hawkeyes in the driver's seat, but they would be less assured than a victorious Wisconsin.
B1G-E:
I just can't see how Maryland can recover from the loss to tOSU to get in this race. They simply aren't as good as the Big Three so they needed to take advantage when they were in the game after halftime and they just couldn't do it.
That brings us the the Big Three and it is pretty simple. If one of them can sweep the other two, they are in even if they do lose an upset somewhere else. If not then either whoever loses in an upset is out and the winner of the other two goes or else the final and most interesting possibility:
If #2 Michigan, #3 Ohio State, and #6 Penn State all finish 11-1/8-1 then the team that goes to the B1GCG will be the team whose B1G-W opponents have the best cumulative league record. As of right now that stands at:
4-4 Ohio State:
- 2-0 Wisconsin
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-2 Purdue
3-6 Michigan:
- 1-2 Nebraska
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-2 Purdue
3-6 Penn State:
- 2-1 Iowa
- 1-2 Northwestern
- 0-3 Illinois
Northwestern's upset win over Minnesota is the only thing keeping Penn State even in this race. Had Minnesota won that game the Buckeyes' opponents would be 5-3, the Wolverines' would be 4-5, and Penn States' would be 2-7.
The Buckeyes are big Badger fans this weekend because a Wisconsin win helps tOSU AND hurts PSU.
A good day for PSU today as far as the tiebreaker goes
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A good day for PSU today as far as the tiebreaker goes
Sure was
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You would think Iowa would be the clear frontrunner in the West right now, but I don't trust Iowa to run the table. Iowa has that special ability to win when the stats say it shouldn't by winning games with defense, special teams, field position, and takeaways. One thing it clearly does not need is a passing game. Although Iowa should still consider switching QB's.
But the whole key to Iowa's success is not to fall 2 scores behind. If Iowa has a couple turnovers early and falls behind 10-0, they can't catch up with its offense. Although Iowa did come back from down 16-10 to MSU, but the offense did not do that. Iowa could lose at leaat once and maybe twice more.
In the end the West winner will probably have 3 losses again. Wisc still has to play OSU and will get upset again. Nobody else is good enough to win out.
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no one in the west has a QB or an offense
no sure wins for anyone in the west
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no one in the west has a QB or an offense
no sure wins for anyone in the west
whoever wins the west- and it's looking like Iowa is a lock right now- is just going to get slaughtered in the B1G CCG by the East winner- which will be either M/OSU/PSU. basically just a rinse/repeat of every year since they went to East/West divisions.
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Iowa/Michigan a couple seasons ago?
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Iowa/Michigan a couple seasons ago?
yup. gonna be a 42-3 or 41-7 type game in the B1G CCG. East winner will slaughter the West winner. There will be blood.
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Updated potential 3-way tiebreaker:
5-6 Penn State:
- 3-1 Iowa
- 1-2 Northwestern
- 1-3 Illinois
4-6 Ohio State:
- 2-1 Wisconsin
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
3-7 Michigan:
- 1-2 Nebraska
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
Huge change from last week.
I continue to believe that Michigan has basically no chance of winning if it comes to this since I still believe that Wisconsin > Nebraska. That would leave it between tOSU and PSU so keep an eye on games between UW/MN/PU and IA/NU/IL.
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whoever wins the west- and it's looking like Iowa is a lock right now-
I'm not sure about "lock" only because their offense is so bad that it feels like they are vulnerable every week but they are definitely a strong favorite.
In the East the three-team round-robin to determine the Championship begins in Columbus this weekend.
Michigan is technically 1/2 game ahead but that is meaningless and only because they haven't had their week off yet.
The loser this weekend isn't completely out and the winner hasn't clinched but the loser probably needs to win out AND get help while the winner controls their own destiny and would have a prayer even with a loss to Michigan on Veteran's Day (PSU) or Turkey weekend (tOSU).
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whoever wins the west- and it's looking like Iowa is a lock right now- is just going to get slaughtered in the B1G CCG by the East winner- which will be either M/OSU/PSU. basically just a rinse/repeat of every year since they went to East/West divisions.
I would love to argue with you and point out that the West has played plenty of close games in the CCG over the years, because they have, but it would be just as silly trying to argue that Michigan was not getting it's ass kicked by Ohio St every year just because it played plenty of close games against Ohio St The only thing that mattered is when Michigan finally beat OSU in 2021. Same with the West.
With that said, It is safe to say Iowa has not come close to beating Michigan or Ohio St in 2021 or 2022. So nobody expects anything different in 2023.
But let's not act like that like this has been going on forever. Iowa beat PSU in both 2020 and 2021. Iowa beat Mich in 2016, played Mich close in 2019, and would have beat Mich in 2020 if Mich/Covid didn't cancel the game Iowa-Mich in 2020. Ohio St has not beat Iowa in Iowa Ciry since 2010! Iowa has had its share of victories over the Big 3 over the years. They just kind of suck against the Big 3 in 2022 & 2023 that's all.
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I would love to argue with you and point out that the West has played plenty of close games in the CCG over the years, because they have,
I think this is a fair point so let's explore it.
2022:
43-22 Michigan over Purdue. Purdue led 10-7 in the second quarter and was within a point at halftime but Michigan pulled away early in the second half and Purdue never seriously threatened after that. Blowout IMHO.
2021:
42-3 Michigan over Iowa. This one was more-or-less over in the first quarter. Blowout.
2020:
22-10 Ohio State over Northwestern. Northwestern led 10-6 at the half and was within one score until deep in the fourth. Competitive game.
2019:
34-21 Ohio State over Wisconsin. Wisconsin led 21-7 at the half but Ohio State walked away is the second half. Reasonably competitive game
2018:
45-24 Ohio State over Northwestern. This was a weird one. Ohio State led 24-7 at the half and appeared to be on their way to an easy win. Then the Wildcats scored two quick TD's to make it a three point game. Then the Buckeyes scored a TD to take a 10 point lead into the fourth quarter but a NU FG made it a one score game again before tOSU iced it with two late TD's.
2017:
27-22 Ohio State over Wisconsin. Ohio State led 21-10 at the half but UW was within a FG in the fourth and ended up losing by only one score.
2016:
38-31 Penn State over Wisconsin. Wisconsin led 28-7 early but PSU stormed back and won.
2015:
16-13 Michigan State over Iowa. The Spartans won on a TD in the closing seconds.
2014:
59-0 Ohio State over Wisconsin. It wasn't even as close as the lopsided final score.
By my count:
- Three blowouts.
- Three games that were reasonably competitive but with the B1G-E rep pulling away late.
- Three one score games.
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Updated potential 3-way tiebreaker:
5-6 Penn State:
- 3-1 Iowa
- 1-2 Northwestern
- 1-3 Illinois
4-6 Ohio State:
- 2-1 Wisconsin
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
3-7 Michigan:
- 1-2 Nebraska
- 1-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
Huge change from last week.
I continue to believe that Michigan has basically no chance of winning if it comes to this since I still believe that Wisconsin > Nebraska. That would leave it between tOSU and PSU so keep an eye on games between UW/MN/PU and IA/NU/IL.
Disaster weekend for Penn State. Their opponents went 0-3, tOSU's and Michigan's each went 2-0.
Updated potential 3-way tiebreaker:
6-6 Ohio State:
- 3-1 Wisconsin
- 2-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
5-7 Michigan:
- 2-2 Nebraska
- 2-2 Minnesota
- 1-3 Purdue
5-9 Penn State:
- 3-2 Iowa
- 1-3 Northwestern
- 1-4 Illinois
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What are the various scenarios for the B1G West?
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What are the various scenarios for the B1G West?
WAY too early to tackle this. Everyone is mathematically in it and the top six each have a realistic chance.
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Yes, the West is pretty much wide open.
Assuming Wisc loses to Ohio St, everybody in the West will have at least 2 losses. Minn will also play Ohio St so they should have at least 3 losses.
I have a hunch Wisc and Iowa will tie for first with 3 losses each. Everybody else will have at least 4 losses. That would give Iowa the division.
But like others have mentioned, Neb, Minn, NW, Wisc all could get on a roll and win out except for any games against the Big 3 in the east. Iowa could easily fall apart. Minn, Neb, NW all could win the division if they finish at least 6-3.
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If I had to project the Big Ten West Standings, I would guess
1. Iowa 6-3
2. Wisc 6-3
3. Minn 5-4
4. Neb 5-4
5. Pur 3-6
6. ILL 3-6
7. NW 2-7
This could get interesting if the West ends up a 3-way tie with Minn or Neb involved. Technically PUR, ILL and NW are still alive but the odds are not good unless they win out and get some help.
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The B1G West's big 4 are all tied for first place, with the Wildcats lurking in the shadows one game behind that quadruple conglomerate.
So... what would need to happen in order for Northwestern to sneak through the myriad of tiebreakers and secure their third trip to Indianapolis?
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do the math
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do the math
Well okay, but you're not going to like it.
IF Northwestern wins out then, in accordance to my calculations, the only help that they would need is for Nebraska to lose... twice.
Needing Nebraska to lose to both Iowa and Wisconsin is a lot better than needing Nebraska to beat one or the other or both. So the odds aren't really all that long at this point.
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So I believe this what each team needs to do to win the West, without getting into complicated tiebreakers.
Minn - needs to win out, that's it. But THE catch is that Minn still needs to play OSU. Minn has beat Neb, Iowa and lost to NW and still needs to play Wisc.
Neb - Needs to win out and Minn needs to lose one. Neb has beat NW and lost to Minn and still needs to play Wisc, Iowa
Iowa - Needs to win out and Minn to lose once. Iowa has beat Wisc and lost to Minn. Still needs to play NW, Neb.
Wisc - Needs to win out and for Iowa to lose once. Wisc has lost to Iowa and still needs to play NW, Neb, Minn
NW - needs to win out and Neb to lose twice. NW has beat Minn and lost to Neb. NW still needs to play Iowa, Wisc
PUR - Purdue needs to win out and Iowa, Wisc, Neb all lose 3 times and Minn lose twice. Purdue has beat ILL and lost to Mich, Wisc, Iowa, Neb. Purdue still has to play Minn, NW, OSU, Ind
ILL - Needs to win out and have Wisc, Neb lose 3 times, Iowa, Minn lose twice, PUR lose once. ILL has beat MD and lost to PSU, Neb, PUR, Wisc. ILL still has to play Minn, Ind, IOWA, NW.
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...and if none of them win out? :098:
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The B1G West's big 4 are all tied for first place, with the Wildcats lurking in the shadows one game behind that quadruple conglomerate.
So... what would need to happen in order for Northwestern to sneak through the myriad of tiebreakers and secure their third trip to Indianapolis?
I'm not taking on all of this but I'll take an overall look at 2-3 Northwestern and the four 3-2 teams. Before I do that let me clarify that I do NOT think that the 1-4 teams (IL and PU) are mathematically eliminated but they are practically eliminated.
3-2 Iowa (beat UW, lost to MN):
- Vs NU at Wrigley, 11/4
- Vs RU 11/11
- Vs IL 11/18
- At UNL Friday 11/24
3-2 Minnesota (beat UNL and IA, lost to NU)
- Vs IL 11/4
- At PU 11/11
- At tOSU 11/18
- Vs UW 11/25
3-2 Wisconsin (lost to Iowa)
- At IU 11/4
- Vs NU 11/11
- Vs UNL 11/18
- At MN 11/25
3-2 Nebraska (beat NU, lost to MN)
- At MSU 11/4
- Vs UMD 11/11
- At UW 11/18
- Vs Iowa Friday 11/24
2-3 Northwestern (beat MN, lost to UNL)
- Vs Iowa at Wrigley 11/4
- At UW 11/11
- Vs PU 11/18
- At IL 11/25
Minnesota controls their own destiny but they are the only one of the group that still has to play one of the big three.
If you assume that Minnesota will lose in Columbus then Iowa and Nebraska control their own destiny.
Wisconsin gains control of their destiny is Iowa loses any of their remaining games.
Northwestern needs help. It might be mathematically impossible for 5-4 to win the division and even if it isn't, it will be soon. Thus, as a practical matter they need to win out. Then it would come down to tiebreakers and their only loss would be Nebraska so they would probably win a big 6-3 tie.
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If Northwestern wins out, then ole What's-his-nuts will be a shoo-in for Big Ten Coach of the Year.
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...and if none of them win out? :098:
There is a good chance that none of them will but if the Champion is 6-3 it will almost certainly be a multi-team tie.
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Sorry @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) , I was typing while you were.
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(https://farm3.staticflickr.com/2342/2144128153_566753252e.jpg)
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Sorry @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) , I was typing while you were.
No problem. As others mentioned, I didn't even bother to get into complicated 3-way or 4-way tiebreakers if nobody wins out. Agree that most likely the West winner will have at least 3 losses.
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...and if none of them win out? :098:
That's too hard to figure out. I just say let's do Rock Paper Scissors Lizard Spock.
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This year's big ten west race is akin to the play in 16 v 16 games in Dayton.
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I'll simply wait 2 or 3 weeks and then start to worry
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Update on the potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E:
Note:
If PSU, tOSU, and M all go 11-1 (tOSU>PSU>M>tOSU) the first potentially decisive tiebreaker is the league records of their B1G-W opponents.
At this point those are:
Ohio State, 7-8, .467
- 1-4 Purdue
- 3-2 Minnesota
- 3-2 Wisconsin
Michigan, 7-8, .467
- 1-4 Purdue
- 3-2 Minnesota
- 3-2 Nebraska
Penn State, 6-9, .400
- 1-4 Illinois
- 2-3 Northwestern
- 3-2 Iowa
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Vis-a-vis the aforementioned potential 3-way tiebreaker:
I am no longer confident that tOSU will win if it comes down to this. Earlier this year I was, but a number of things have changed including:
- Wisconsin has under-achieved relative to my expectations and has injury issues.
- Northwestern looked to be roadkill earlier this season but they are showing signs of life.
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Medina's Handy-Dandy B1G-W contender table:
(https://i.imgur.com/B12e0ww.png)
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since there's a better than average chance that Minnesooota loses to Ohio St., Iowa and Nebraska control their own destiny
with the Hawks and Huskers lack of offense, I'm not sure either of them can win out.
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It's weird to think about how each team in the West could have a commanding lead right now.
Nebraska gave up a 4th down TD to Minn in the last 2 minutes and then let Minn kick the game winning FG with no time left. If Neb hangs on against Minn, they would be 4-1 right now.
Minn collapses and blows big lead in overtime loss to NW. If Minn hangs on against NW, they would be 4-1 and have victories over Iowa and Neb
If Iowa does not commit an invalid fair catch on a game-winning punt return for a TD against Minn, Iowa would be 4-1 with wins against Wisc and Minn.
But in the end I guess it's a sign nobody in the West is good enough to win their games by 3TD's and things have a way of balancing out in close games.
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This potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E fascinates me because it is so goofy. An interesting twist is that it IF it becomes potentially relevant, it *COULD* be decided BEFORE the games of the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend, here is why:
Penn State's opponents are Iowa, Illinois, and Northwestern. Iowa plays Nebraska the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend and the other two play each other on Saturday. The result of the IL/NU game will be irrelevant because no matter what happens it is one win and one loss for PSU's opponents. Thus, after the Friday games, PSU's opponents final record will be locked in.
Ohio State' opponents are Purdue, Minnesota, and Wisconsin. Purdue hosts Indiana on the Saturday of Thanksgiving weekend and the other two play each other. The result of the MN/UW game will be irrelevant because no matter what happens it is one win and one loss for tOSU's opponents. Thus, after the Friday games, tOSU's opponents final record will be within +/-1 game.
Michigan's opponents are Nebraska, Purdue, and Minnesota. Nebraska hosts Iowa on the Friday of Thanksgiving weekend and. That Saturday Purdue hosts Indiana and Minnesota hosts Wisconsin. Thus, Michigan's opponents final record will be within +/-2 games.
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Yes, and the most important part as we all know, PSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov 11 to keep the chances of a 3-way tie alive.
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Yes, and the most important part as we all know, PSU still has to beat Michigan on Nov 11 to keep the chances of a 3-way tie alive.
True but I do want to clarify that the reason we have talked about this crazy hypothetical three-way tie so much is that there really isn't much else to talk about. In the West there are five teams within a game of the lead so there are LOTS of scenarios to consider. In the East we've assumed (correctly) that there were no more than three contenders so the only really relevant games are the three among those three teams (tOSU>PSU, M@PSU, tOSU@M).
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True but I do want to clarify that the reason we have talked about this crazy hypothetical three-way tie so much is that there really isn't much else to talk about. In the West there are five teams within a game of the lead so there are LOTS of scenarios to consider. In the East we've assumed (correctly) that there were no more than three contenders so the only really relevant games are the three among those three teams (tOSU>PSU, M@PSU, tOSU@M).
Yes, all understood. The other crazy thing to think about is how this will all be different in 2024 with no divisions and 4 extra teams. Sure we won't have the fun of guessing which mediocre team will win the West anymore but instead we are going to have all these possible 3-way ties at 9-0 to sort out. It will be interesting how the Big Ten comes up with its tiebreakers without divisions.
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3-way ties at 9-0, at 8-1, and 7-2
bunch of 1 loss teams and 2 loss teams trying to get in the 12-team playoff and new year's day bowls
back to the polls for placement?
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3-way ties at 9-0, at 8-1, and 7-2
bunch of 1 loss teams and 2 loss teams trying to get in the 12-team playoff and new year's day bowls
back to the polls for placement?
It will be interesting. You could have a clear #1 at 8-1 then say three 7-2 teams vying for the second CG spot. It might be that some want it and some don't.
Example, lets say that on a schedule like this year, tOSU lost to Notre Dame and went 7-2/9-3. They would desperately want that CG because 7-2/9-3 is probably NOT going to get into the CFP but 7-2/10-3 and B1G Champions is an auto-bid. OTOH, if tOSU had a win over a solid Notre Dame team and was sitting at 7-2/10-2 they'd possibly be better off NOT going to the CG because losing the CG to finish 7-2/10-3 might NOT be good enough while 7-2/10-2 probably would.
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yup, there will be some bull shit politics
always best to be tOSU or MU in those cases
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Vis-a-vis the potential 3-way B1G-E tiebreaker:
Ohio State's opponents are 7-8 and four of their 12 remaining games are against each other (MN/PU, UW/MN). They will necessarily go 2-2 in those games so they are effectively 9-10 with eight to go.
Michigan's opponents are 7-8 and two of their 12 remaining games are against each other (MN/PU). Yhey will necessarily go 1-1 in those games so they are effectively 8-9 with 10 to go.
Penn State's opponents are 6-9 and six of their 12 remaining games are against each other (IA/NU, IA/IL, IL/NU). They will necessarily go 3-3 in those games so they are effectively 9-12 with six to go.
Biggest remaining games:
- Illinois at Minnesota this weekend: Illinois is a PSU opponent while MN is an opponent of both tOSU and M so an IL win REALLY helps PSU while a MN win REALLY helps tOSU/M.
- Northwestern at Wisconsin on Veteran's Day: Northwestern is a PSU opponent while UW is a tOSU opponent.
- Purdue at Northwestern on 11/18: Purdue is a tOSU/M opponent while NU is a PSU opponent.
- Nebraska at Wisconsin on 11/18: Nebraska is a M opponent while UW is a tOSU opponent. This game will more-than-likely be the difference between tOSU's opponents and M's opponents.
- Iowa at Nebraska on 11/24: Iowa is a PSU opponent while UNL is a M opponent.
- Wisconsin at Minnesota, the Ax game on 11/25: Both are tOSU opponents but only MN is a M opponent so tOSU might need a UW win here.
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so now Iowa sits alone atop the B1G West
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so now Iowa sits alone atop the B1G West.
Yes, Iowa controls it's own destiny. But Iowa just doesn't have a good enough offense to win out, so the race in the West is not over. The key is Iowa can lose again, just don't lose to Neb.
Minn still owns tie-breakers over Iowa and Neb, but assuming Minn loses to Ohio St, Minn needs Iowa to lose twice and Neb to lose once, and Minn still needs to beat Wisc. Does not look good for Minn.
Despite its performance, Nebraska still is close to controlling its own destiny, assuming Minn loses to Ohio St. Neb still plays Wisc and Iowa. So if Neb wins out (there I go again) , odds are good Neb will win the West.
Wisc still needs to play Minn and Neb. But if Wisc wins out, it still needs Iowa to lose twice.
Technically NW and ILL are probably still alive but I am not going to try to figure out how.
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QB play and therefore offense is horrible
except for MU, tOSU, & PSU
but, you all know this
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It was just a horrible day for the Big Ten West for so many different reasons.
The West went 0-3 against the East in cross-division games. So the East now leads the West 11-5 with 5 games to go plus the CCG. Once Ohio St beats Minn, the East VS West cross-division race will be officially over. Oh, who are we kidding, its not a race, it's a slaughter.
As for the West race itself, the West has only 1 team above. 500 and that 1 team is only averaging 13 points a game in conference play. Iowa seems to be on a mission to prove it can win a division scoring the lowest number of points possible.
Oh well, at least we got a nice visual of Iowa hitting the game winning FG under the lights at Wrigley Field.
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it was low scoring, but at least it wasn't a baseball score
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it was low scoring, but at least it wasn't a baseball score
Yes, I heard there were only 6 baseball games at Wrigley this year with higher scores. So I guess it was the 7th highest scoring game at Wrigley this year.
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Is this year perhaps the most imbalanced E vs W has ever been?
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Is this year perhaps the most imbalanced E vs W has ever been?
Could be. I believe the previous worst for the West was 8-13 (or 8-14 with the CCG) .
So that's something I guess for the West to still play for. Try to finish at least 8-13. That actually is still possible, actually.
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The top three in the E appear way better than anyone in the W. Maybe the rest of the E is comparable, but the difference, to me, seems extreme just looking at the top 3.
And of course the SEC has had years with a large imbalance, I don't know if it was this large.
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It's really too bad that NW did not pull it out in the last minute against Iowa.
It just seems fitting, the West was so close to having a 5-way tie with all 5 teams at 3-3.
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Anterio Thompson blocked Hunter Renner’s punt early in the third quarter. The Hawkeyes took over at the Northwestern 25. Drew Hill rolled to his right and hit Addison Ostrenga for a 2-yard touchdown.
Iowa's defense made a huge stand midway through the fourth quarter. Northwestern had a first down at the Hawkeyes' 2 and got stopped on four runs — three from the 1.
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Anterio Thompson blocked Hunter Renner’s punt early in the third quarter. The Hawkeyes took over at the Northwestern 25. Drew Hill rolled to his right and hit Addison Ostrenga for a 2-yard touchdown.
Iowa's defense made a huge stand midway through the fourth quarter. Northwestern had a first down at the Hawkeyes' 2 and got stopped on four runs — three from the 1.
Yes, as an Iowa fan I almost feel like apologizing for the way Iowa keeps winning these games with almost no offense at all. At least Iowa lost a close one against Minnesota so it seems a little more fair.
If you throw in Iowa's game game against PSU, Iowa has been out scored in all conference games this year. Iowa is kind of the exact opposite of that Nebraska team a couple of years ago that lost 7 conference games by one score and blew out NW so it totals points were almost equal in conference.
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the Ferentz family will no be apologizing
I don't blame them
the opponents have themselves to blame - too many mistakes - no offensive points
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It's really too bad that NW did not pull it out in the last minute against Iowa.
It just seems fitting, the West was so close to having a 5-way tie with all 5 teams at 3-3.
Nothing against Iowa, I was rooting for this for that reason.
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Update on the potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E:
UPDATED THROUGH 11/4 games
Note:
If PSU, tOSU, and M all go 11-1 (tOSU>PSU>M>tOSU) the first potentially decisive tiebreaker is the league records of their B1G-W opponents.
At this point those are:
Ohio State, 7-11, .388
- 1-5 Purdue
- 3-3 Minnesota
- 3-3 Wisconsin
Michigan, 7-11, .388
- 1-5 Purdue
- 3-3 Minnesota
- 3-3 Nebraska
Penn State, 8-10, .444
- 2-4 Illinois
- 2-4 Northwestern
- 4-2 Iowa
A great weekend for Penn State as their opponents went 2-1 (NU lost but IA and IL won). Meanwhile tOSU's and M's opponents each went 0-3.
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The Whoors
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A great weekend for Penn State as their opponents went 2-1 (NU lost but IA and IL won). Meanwhile tOSU's and M's opponents each went 0-3.
everything is falling into place for PSU. Now they just have to beat Michigan and then Mich beat OSU.
The irony is that Minn and Purdue's conference records are probably worse than they should be, because they each had to play both OSU and Mich.
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I could be wrong, but I think if PSU loses to Michigan, then PSU will be eliminated from any chance at playing in the CCG.
And If PSU loses to Mich and OSU beats MSU, then PSU would be officially eliminated from any chance at a first place tie in the East.
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I could be wrong, but I think if PSU loses to Michigan, then PSU will be eliminated from any chance at playing in the CCG.
And If PSU loses to Mich and OSU beats MSU, then PSU would be officially eliminated from any chance at a first place tie in the East.
Penn State would be eliminated from CG contention with a loss to M even if MSU beats tOSU.
Ohio State and Michigan are both 6-0 and will play each other. The winner can finish no worse than 7-2 so:
- 3-3 Rutgers
- 2-4 Maryland
- 1-5 Indiana and MSU
are all mathematically eliminated from even a share because none of them can get to 7-2.
That just leaves 5-1 Penn State and if they lose to Michigan, the best they could do is 7-2. That would only get them a share if:
- Penn State wins their last two games (vsRU, @MSU), and
- Michigan loses their last two games (@UMD, vstOSU), and
- Ohio State beats Michigan (see #2) but loses their other two games (vsMSU, vsMN).
That would give Penn State a share of the B1G-E in a three-way tie with tOSU and M but the first tiebreaker is H2H2Hwhuch would be:
So if Penn State loses to Michigan they are eliminated from the CG and if tOSU also beats MSU, that would eliminate Penn State from even a possible share of the B1G-E.
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Also, if Ohio State and Michigan both win this weekend it sets up a situation where their games next weekend really don't matter much.
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Also, if Ohio State and Michigan both win this weekend it sets up a situation where their games next weekend really don't matter much.
Yes, in the Big Ten race it will not matter. It could make a difference in the playoff rankings/seedings, but we can save that for another discussion.
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So @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) and I covered the East above.
The West is, to put it mildly, MICH more complicated.
Even last place Purdue (1-5) might have some theoretical mathematical chance because nobody has five wins yet so each one could end up 4-5 or worse and Purdue would end up 4-5 if they win out.
4-2 Iowa, vsRU, vsIL, @UNL:
The Hawkeyes control their own destiny. If they win our, they'll go to Indy. A loss to either RU or IL would only keep them out if Minnesota managed to win out.
3-3 Minnesota, @PU, @tOSU, vs UW:
If they win out, all they need is an Iowa loss because they already own the H2H tiebreaker over UNL and IA and winning out would take out Wisconsin. The major problem is that winning out requires winning in Columbus. The last time the Gophers won in Columbus Bill Clinton was President and the time before that it was Harry Truman.
3-3 Wisconsin, vs NU, vs UNL, @MN:
The loss to Iowa is crushing them. They can't get to Indy unless Iowa loses twice.
3-3 Nebraska, vsUMD, @UW, vsIA:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny because winning out would take out the Badgers and put them into no worse than a tie with the Hawkeyes. At that point all they'd need would be a Minnesota loss and the Gophers go to Columbus next weekend.
The rest:
- 2-4 Illinois and Northwestern
- 1-5 Purdue
These teams may be mathematically alive but I think they are practically out.
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Interesting tiebreaker in the B1G-W:
Practically, Nebraska controls their own destiny and they almost control their own destiny mathematically.
Follow me on this:
If Nebraska wins out they will finish 6-3 in the B1G. Winning out would give the Badgers their fourth loss so that takes them out. It would also give Iowa their third loss so Nebraska would be at least tied with Iowa and Nebraska would own the H2H tiebreaker over Iowa.
Minnesota *could* also join that tie by winning out but that would involve winning in Columbus so it is probably unlikely.
But it goes a step further. Even if Minnesota did win in Columbus and win out, Nebraska would STILL go to Indy so long as Iowa wins their other two games (vsRU, vsIL).
Reason:
In a three way tie between Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota at 6-3 the tiebreakers are:
- H2H2H: This does not help as each of the three would be 1-1 against the other two.
- Divisional Record: Nebraska would be 5-1 and win while Iowa and Minnesota would each be 4-2.
Thus, if Nebraska wins out they will go to Indy unless:
- Minnesota also wins out, and
- Iowa loses at home to either Rutgers or Illinois, or both.
If Nebraska won out and both of those things happened it would create a 2-way tie atop the B1G-W between Nebraska and Minnesota and the Gophers would win that tie.
Paths to Indy for the B1G-W contenders:
Iowa 4-2:
If they win out they go so they control their own destiny. If they lose to either RU or IL they would still control their own destiny so long as Minnesota loses a game.
Nebraska 3-3:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny (see above) because if they win out they would win a 2-way tie with Iowa or a 3-way tie with Iowa and Minnesota.
Minnesota 3-3:
The Gophers just need an Iowa loss because winning out would take out Wisconsin and Minnesota already owns H2H wins over Iowa and Nebraska.
Wisconsin 3-3:
The Badgers need help. Their loss to Iowa means that they either need two Iowa losses or some 3-way tie that they would win. The problem is that there aren't any potential 3-way ties at 6-3 for the Badgers because winning out would give Nebraska and Minnesota each a fourth loss. Thus, even if UW wins out they'll still need two Iowa losses.
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Interesting tiebreaker in the B1G-W:
Practically, Nebraska controls their own destiny and they almost control their own destiny mathematically.
Follow me on this:
If Nebraska wins out they will finish 6-3 in the B1G. Winning out would give the Badgers their fourth loss so that takes them out. It would also give Iowa their third loss so Nebraska would be at least tied with Iowa and Nebraska would own the H2H tiebreaker over Iowa.
Minnesota *could* also join that tie by winning out but that would involve winning in Columbus so it is probably unlikely.
But it goes a step further. Even if Minnesota did win in Columbus and win out, Nebraska would STILL go to Indy so long as Iowa wins their other two games (vsRU, vsIL).
Reason:
In a three way tie between Iowa, Nebraska, and Minnesota at 6-3 the tiebreakers are:
- H2H2H: This does not help as each of the three would be 1-1 against the other two.
- Divisional Record: Nebraska would be 6-1 and win while Iowa and Minnesota would each be 5-2.
Thus, if Nebraska wins out they will go to Indy unless:
- Minnesota also wins out, and
- Iowa loses at home to either Rutgers or Illinois, or both.
If Nebraska won out and both of those things happened it would create a 2-way tie atop the B1G-W between Nebraska and Minnesota and the Gophers would win that tie.
Paths to Indy for the B1G-W contenders:
Iowa 4-2:
If they win out they go so they control their own destiny. If they lose to either RU or IL they would still control their own destiny so long as Minnesota loses a game.
Nebraska 3-3:
The Cornhuskers more-or-less control their own destiny (see above) because if they win out they would win a 2-way tie with Iowa or a 3-way tie with Iowa and Minnesota.
Minnesota 3-3:
The Gophers just need an Iowa loss because winning out would take out Wisconsin and Minnesota already owns H2H wins over Iowa and Nebraska.
Wisconsin 3-3:
The Badgers need help. Their loss to Iowa means that they either need two Iowa losses or some 3-way tie that they would win. The problem is that there aren't any potential 3-way ties at 6-3 for the Badgers because winning out would give Nebraska and Minnesota each a fourth loss. Thus, even if UW wins out they'll still need two Iowa losses.
I could be wrong but something seems slightly off in your 3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.
There are only 6 games against your division. So the division records would be Neb 5-1, Minn 4-2, Iowa 4-2. (I think).
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I could be wrong but something seems slightly off in your 3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.
There are only 6 games against your division. So the division records would be Neb 5-1, Minn 4-2, Iowa 4-2. (I think).
You are right. I just figured out the losses and calculated the wins but I should have subtracted from six not seven.
Doesn't change the result.
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3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.
I don't think any of the 3 will win out
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3-way tie-breaker with Minn, Iowa, Neb.
I don't think any of the 3 will win out
That favors Iowa because they, more than the others, can afford a loss.
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Vis-a-vis the potential 3-way tiebreaker in the B1G-E, the Northwestern at Wisconsin game this weekend (Badgers favored by 10) is pretty big.
Purdue and Minnesota are playing each other. Both of them also played both tOSU and M so the net result for both tOSU's and M's opponents will be 1-1.
If UW beats NU then tOSU's opponents will go 2-1 and PSU's can go no better than 2-1 so tOSU's will exit this weekend either one game behind PSU's, tied with PSU's, or one game ahead of PSU's. OTOH, if NU beats UW then tOSU's opponents will go 1-2 and PSU's can do no worse than 1-2 so tOSU's will exit this weekend at least one game behind PSU's.
Michigan is rooting for Nebraska against Maryland if they lose in Happy Valley.
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It's kind of funny to contemplate Nebraska winning out, after they just lost to Michigan State.
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That favors Iowa because they, more than the others, can afford a loss.
Iowa isn't favored at anything. Iowa can give up no more than 11 points to an opponent, or they are in serious jeopardy of losing. We should start a thread on close shaves.
Iowa, Norelco, Gillette, Wilkinson Sword (no), Bic, ... I am getting away from football. I think we need an off-season thread related to shaving.
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East is really simple now. Winner of THE GAME will go to Indy (assuming Michigan is permitted to participate). Said winner will also win the East outright unless:
- They lose this week (vsMN/atUMD), and
- The other one wins this week.
The other five teams are eliminated from even a share
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The West is simple unless Iowa loses out.
If Iowa wins either of their last two games (vsIL, atUNL), they win the West outright.
It is only complicated if Iowa loses out so all of the following assumes that and that the team in question wins out (because otherwise they wouldn't tie IA).
- Iowa: beat NU, UW; lost to MN, IL, UNL
- Illinois: beat IA, NU, MN; lost to UW, UNL.
- Nebraska: beat IA, UW, NU, IL; lost to MN
- Wisconsin: beat IL, UNL, MN; lost to NU, IA.
- Minnesota: beat UNL, IA, UW; lost to IL, NU.
- Northwestern: beat IL, UW, MN; lost to UNL, IA.
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Iowa - needs to win one of last 2 games against ILL or. @Neb. Or if Iowa loses twice, then Iowa needs Neb to lose to Wisc, ILL to lose to NW and Minn to lose once
Neb- Neb needs to win @Wisc and Neb needs to win against Iowa, and Neb needs Iowa to lose against ILL, and Neb needs Minn to lose once.
ILL - ILL needs to win @ Iowa and ILL needs to win against NW, and ILL needs Iowa to lose @Neb and ILL needs Neb to lose @Wisc
Wisc - To tie for first, Wisc needs to beat Neb and then Wisc needs to beat Minn, and Wisc needs Iowa to lose against ILL, and Wisc needs Iowa to lose @Neb. In addition if ILL beats NW, then there would be a 3-way tie between Iowa, Wisc and ILL and I don't know who wins that 3-way tie.
Minn - Minn needs to win @OSU and Minn needs to beat Wisc. Minn also needs Iowa to lose twice. Minn also needs ILL to lose to NW and Minn needs NW to lose to Purdue.
NW - to tie for first, NW needs to beat Purdue and NW needs to beat ILL. NW also needs Iowa to lose twice. In addition if Minn wins twice, there would be a 3-way tie between Iowa, NW, Minn and I don't know who would win that 3-way tie.
OK I am done (I think)
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So, basically Iowa v UM/OSU, and it won't be pretty.
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So, basically Iowa v UM/OSU, and it won't be pretty.
It's too bad maybe the West could get John Paddock into the CCG. That could be exciting.
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My favorite potential B1G-W scenario:
- Iowa loses to IL
- Iowa loses to UNL
- IL loses to NU
- NU loses to PU
- UNL loses to UW
- UW loses to MN
- MN loses to tOSU
- PU beats IU
Final standings:
- 5-4 Iowa
- 4-5 IL
- 4-5 NU
- 4-5 UNL
- 4-5 UW
- 4-5 MN
- 4-5 PU
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My favorite potential B1G-W scenario:
Iowa loses to IL
Iowa loses to UNL
_______________________
I'm good with this
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Strangely enough in the Big Ten West, all 5 teams tied with 3-4 conference records still have a mathematical chance to go to the 2023 Big Ten CCG. I was not sure about Wisc or NW before but turns out they both have a chance.
If Wisc finishes in a 3-way tie for first with Iowa and ILL at 5-4, then Wisc would win the tie-breaker. Wisc would have a division record of 4-2 while ILL and Iowa would be 3-3
If NW finishes in a 3-way tie for first with Iowa and Minn at 5-4, then NW would win the tie-breaker NW would have a division record of 4-2 while Iowa and Minn would be 3-3 this is probably the most unlikely scenerio of all teams still alive because it requires NW to win twice, Minn to win twice including Minn beating OSU, and Iowa to lose twice and for Neb to lose to Wisc.
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The Big Ten Championship game is something I would not miss. Wish they did away with it altogether and just played another conference game.
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The Big Ten Championship game is something I would not miss. Wish they did away with it altogether and just played another conference game.
If CFP expands to 16 or more teams, the debate will come if the CCG is still necessary because the number of extra games is getting out of hand.
Maybe the Big Ten can go to a flex schedule the last week of the regular season. Every team can play their rival game the week before Thanksgiving then have another week where you still have designated home teams but the opponent can be flexed. The 2 best teams can be flexed into the same game for the CCG. Who is the home team for the CCG could get complicated.
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It doesn't matter anymore since PSU lost to Michigan but ironically this weekend their B1G-W opponents took a more-or-less insurmountable lead over tOSU's and M's.
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@LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) , check my work here:
(https://i.imgur.com/RuidgcF.png)
Notes:
There can ONLY be a tie for the B1G-W if Iowa loses out (vsIL, @UNL) and one or more of the 3-4 teams wins out. Then the B1G-W Champion would be 5-4.
The above assumes that Iowa loses out AND that the team in question wins out.
Many of the above are mutually exclusive. Ie, Northwestern and Illinois cannot both win out because they play each other. The above assumes both a Northwestern win over Illinois and an Illinois win over Northwestern because:
- Northwestern can only win out by beating Illinois and
- Illinois can only win out by beating Northwestern.
These are the two potential 4-way ties:
- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Northwestern
- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, Illinois.
In #1 the H2H2H2H would be:
- 2-1 Minnesota (beat IA and UNL, lost to NU)
- 2-1 Nebraska (beat IA and NU, lost to MN)
- 1-2 Iowa (beat NU, lost to UNL and MN)
- 1-2 Northwestern (beat MN, lost to IA and UNL)
B1G rules state that if only two teams are left after any step, the winner of the game between those two goes to Indy. Thus, in this case, Minnesota goes because IA and NU are eliminated based on H2H2H2H and Minnesota beat Nebraska.
In #2 the H2H2H2H would be:
- 2-1 Illinois (beat IA and MN, lost to UNL)
- 2-1 Minnesota (beat IA and UNL, lost to IL)
- 2-1 Nebraska (beat IA and IL, lost to MN)
- 0-3 Iowa (lost to UNL, MN, and IL)
B1G rules state that if three or more teams are tied after any step, those three move to the next step (in this case divisional record). Thus, Nebraska goes because they have the best divisional record.
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Then there are the potential three-way ties. It seems like there are a lot but it isn't quite that bad because all these 3-4 teams that play each other can't both get to 5-4. So, I think the potential 3-way ties are:
- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern: Iowa wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois: Wisconsin wins, 4-2 divisional record.
- Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern: Northwestern wins, 4-2 divisional record.
- Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois: Illinois wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
The two-way ties are simple. Iowa wins over UW or NU, loses to UNL, MN, or IL.
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Then there are the potential three-way ties. It seems like there are a lot but it isn't quite that bad because all these 3-4 teams that play each other can't both get to 5-4. So, I think the potential 3-way ties are:
- Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota: Minnesota wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Nebraska, Northwestern: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Nebraska, Illinois: Nebraska wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Wisconsin, Northwestern: Iowa wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
- Iowa, Wisconsin, Illinois: Wisconsin wins, 4-2 divisional record.
- Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern: Northwestern wins, 4-2 divisional record.
- Iowa, Minnesota, Illinois: Illinois wins, 2-0 H2H2H.
The two-way ties are simple. Iowa wins over UW or NU, loses to UNL, MN, or IL.
Yes, very nice summary. It all checks out.
I keep getting tripped up in any tie-breaker involving Minnesota because I keep thinking they will lose to Ohio St and then I have to remind myself they must beat Ohio State in order for Minn to tie for first.
So yes, the simplest way to eliminate everybody is for Iowa to beat ILL on Sat. But the next best way to eliminate a couple teams is for Ohio St to beat Minn, which eliminates both Minn and NW.
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Looking ahead to the potential elimination games for the West this Sat
If Iowa beats ILL - Iowa wins the West division outright and everybody else is eliminated.
If OSU beats Minn - then Minn and NW are both eliminated
If Neb beats Wisc - then Wisc, ILL and NW are all eliminated
If Wisc beats Neb - then Neb is eliminated
If Purdue beats NW - then NW is eliminated.
So there is 4 different ways NW could get eliminated this Sat. NW can only stay alive if NW beats PUR, ILL beats Iowa, Wisc beats Neb and Minn beats OSU.
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Here is a tough question.
If there was such a thing, who would be the Big Ten West first team QB. My nominees
1) Purdue QB Hudson Card
2) Illinois starting QB Luke Altmeyer
3). ILLINOIS backup QB John Paddock
I think I would give it to Paddock even though he has only played about 1.5 games, but what he has done in those 1.5 games is remarkable.
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Here is a tough question.
If there was such a thing, who would be the Big Ten West first team QB. My nominees
The tallest midget trophy?
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Here is a tough question.
If there was such a thing, who would be the Big Ten West first team QB. My nominees
1) Purdue QB Hudson Card
2) Illinois starting QB Luke Altmeyer
3). ILLINOIS backup QB John Paddock
I think I would give it to Paddock even though he has only played about 1.5 games, but what he has done in those 1.5 games is remarkable.
you're studying Illinois this week?
So is Parker
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you're studying Illinois this week?
So is Parker
Yes, the bubble may burst for John Paddock this week against Iowa but what a great story either way.
A 6th year QB that started at Ball St, then decided to use his last year of Elligibility to walk on at Illinois with no promise of playing time. Then forced into action with Illinois down to its last chance trailing against Minnesota, he calmly picks up a 4th and 11, and leads Illinois on a game winning TD drive, shocking the Gophers.
Then Paddock follows that up by throwing for 507 yards against Indiana and again leads Illinois on a game-winning TD drive in OT.
Whatever happens against Iowa, he has had a memorable run already. Now he gets his toughest test. Playing against an Iowa defense that just shut out Rutgers and has given up an average of only 12 points per game.
Edit: lol, Bielema announced Wednesday that Altmyer would be Saturday's starting QB against Iowa. But that's OK, I have a feeling Paddock will still find some way to get in the game and throw the game-winning TD in the 4Q.
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Bert hopefully also announced that Altmyer will have a short leash
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I'm gonna miss the B1G West.
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me too
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With DeJean out of the year, trying to figure how this impacts future O/U for Iowa... he really should have been the QB lately.
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Well now it is simple and there will be no need for tiebreakers.
Iowa and the tOSU/M winners will win their divisions outright and play in Indy (unless M wins and gets banned from postseason play).
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Well now it is simple and there will be no need for tiebreakers.
Iowa and the tOSU/M winners will win their divisions outright and play in Indy (unless M wins and gets banned from postseason play).
that would be fun
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Well now it is simple and there will be no need for tiebreakers.
Iowa and the tOSU/M winners will win their divisions outright and play in Indy (unless M wins and gets banned from postseason play).
Interesting thought. I doubt Michigan gets banned this year. Maybe the NCAA will take away their championship retro-actively next year. But If Michigan would get banned this year, would OSU play in the CCG like Wisconsin did in 2012?
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I don't think I have any interest in attending this game. I've attended all ccg but two to date.
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I don't think I have any interest in attending this game. I've attended all ccg but two to date.
I have a hunch a lot of Iowa fans will go even though it's likely to be a blowout loss. This could be the last CCG for a long time for Iowa. A lot of Iowa fans will just want to soak in the experience l could see a lot of Mich/OSU fans saving their money for the CFP playoffs even though the CCG is a shorter drive for them.
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I also can see the Big Ten moving the CCC around after 2024, which might help grow interest. Las Vegas, Pasedena, The Bears new indoor stadium, etc. All good candidates for future games.
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Agreed. If you're a CFP reg, you can't keep zipping around for 3 neutral site games.
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I don't think I have any interest in attending this game. I've attended all ccg but two to date.
tickets will be cheap
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tickets will be cheap
I actually doubt that. Iowa fans will keep the demand high.
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Hawk fans travel very well and Indy is easily drivable, but...
after 42-3 two seasons ago I don't think nearly as many will travel
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FWIW:
PSU's B1G-W opponents have clinched a better record than the Wolverines' and Buckeyes' opponents.
Thus, if the Nittany Lions had managed to beat Michigan the Wolverines would be facing B1GCG elimination in the MSU/PSU game in Detroit on Friday.
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that's a big if
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Interesting how that worked out even though it doesn't matter now.
It ended up being better to play Iowa NW, ILL instead of playing Minn, Wisc, Neb. Or something like that. I forgot the exact teams.
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Interesting how that worked out even though it doesn't matter now.
It ended up being better to play Iowa NW, ILL instead of playing Minn, Wisc, Neb. Or something like that. I forgot the exact teams.
Early in the season I thought Ohio State's opponents would EASILY win this but it ended up not even being close with PSU's opponents clinching. It doesn't matter since PSU lost but here they are:
PSU:
- 6-2 Iowa
- 3-5 Illinois
- 4-4 Northwestern
- 13-11 total
This weekend IL plays NU so that takes PSU to 14-12 (one will win, the other will lose) and means that their best/worst are:
Ohio State:
- 2-6 Purdue
- 3-5 Minnesota
- 4-4 Wisconsin
- 9-15 total
This weekend MN plays UW so that takes tOSU to 10-16 and means their best/worst are:
Michigan:
- 2-6 Purdue
- 3-5 Minnesota
- 3-5 Nebraska
- 8-16 total
None of Michigan's play each other this weekend so their best/worst are:
Penn State's opponents will finish a MINIMUM of three games better than either tOSU's or Michigan's.