CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 11, 2023, 10:50:16 AM
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I'm not sure that Ohio State fans are capable of feeling comfortable ahead of a game against Purdue. There are just strange results in tOSU/Purdue games such as:
- Their ~.500 team in 2018 destroyed an Ohio State team that was otherwise undefeated.
- Their sub .500 2009 team beat an Ohio State team whose only other loss was to Pete Carroll's Trojans.
There are others but to put some perspective on this, in the 22 years from 2000-2021 Purdue had five wins over the Buckeyes. That is the same as Penn State and more than ANY OTHER TEAM. Here is Ohio State's winning percentage against B1G teams from 2000-2021:
- 1.000, Indiana, 19-0
- 1.000, Rutgers, 8-0
- 1.000, Maryland, 7-0
- 0.923, Minnesota, 12-1
- 0.923, Northwestern, 12-1
- 0.875, Nebraska, 7-1
- 0.867, Illinois, 13-2
- 0.833, Michigan State, 15-3
- 0.810, Michigan, 17-4
- 0.778, Iowa, 7-2
- 0.773, Penn State, 17-5
- 0.765 Wisconsin, 13-4
- 0.643, Purdue, 9-5
Looked at the other way around, here is Purdue's record against other B1G teams and ND (because they played them as often as a league opponent):
- 0.684, Illinois, 13-6
- 0.619, Indiana, 13-8
- 0.474, Northwestern, 9-10
- 0.444, Nebraska, 4-5
- 0.421, Minnesota, 8-11
- 0.421, Iowa, 8-11
- 0.357, Ohio State, 5-9
- 0.357, Michigan State, 5-9
- 0.333, Maryland, 1-2
- 0.250, Michigan, 3-9
- 0.188, Notre Dame, 3-13
- 0.167, Penn State, 2-10
- 0.118, Wisconsin, 2-15
- 0.000, Rutgers, 0-2
You wouldn't expect Ohio State's worst winning percentage to be against Purdue and you wouldn't expect Ohio State to only be mid-pack against Purdue.
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They show the players a picture of Bob Knight in his OSU uniform before the game
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I think it was 2018 that Purdue upset Ohio St.
I only remember this because it basically happened 2 years in a row to Ohio St, with a. 500 Iowa team upsetting OSU in 2017.
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I think it was 2018 that Purdue upset Ohio St.
I only remember this because it basically happened 2 years in a row to Ohio St, with a. 500 Iowa team upsetting OSU in 2017.
Yep, 2018. Edited to fix that typo. And you are right about two years in a row:
- 2017: Ohio State went 12-2. The losses were to a very good Oklahoma team that went to the CFP and finished 12-2 and by 31 points to a mediocre (8-5) Iowa team.
- 2018: Ohio State went 13-1 with a Rose Bowl win. Their only loss was by 29 points to a sub .500 (6-7) Purdue team.
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And the week after that win, Purdue went to EL. Brian Lewerke was hurt, and Rocky Lombardi beat them 23-13.
Rondale Moore had 14 touches for 194 yards and 2 TDs against OSU. He still had 11 against MSU, but for 74 yards, and no scores
D.J. Knox had 17 touches for 154 yards, and 3 TDs against OSU. 12 for 83 against MSU
David Blough averaged 8.8 ypa with 3 TDs and 0 INTs against OSU. 5.7 ypa with 0 TDs and 3 INTs against MSU
MSU had 6 players get 3+ catches, including a walk on, and a kid who quit football after the year to go to law school
It's about as crazy a week to week flip as you'll see
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West is 2-6 against the East.
2-7 after this one.
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I think it was 2018 that Purdue upset Ohio St.
It was and if you cherry-pick down to the 19 years from 2000-2018 the Purdue/Ohio State thing becomes even weirder. In those 19 years, Purdue's record against B1G teams and ND:
- .688 Illinois, 11-5
- .632 Indiana, 12-7
- .500 Minnesota, 8-8
- .438 Northwestern, 7-9
- .385 Ohio State, 5-8
- .375 Iowa, 6-10
- .333 Nebraska, 2-4
- .308 Michigan State, 4-9
- .250 Michigan, 3-9
- .200 Notre Dame, 3-12
- .182 Penn State, 2-9
- .133 Wisconsin, 2-13
- .000 Maryland, 0-2
- .000 Rutgers, 0-1
Ohio State's record against B1G teams from 2000-2018:
- 1.00 Indiana, 16-0
- 1.00 Rutgers, 5-0
- 1.00 Maryland, 5-0
- .917 Minnesota, 11-1
- .909 Northwestern, 10-1
- .867 Illinois, 13-2
- .842 Michigan, 16-3
- .800 Michigan State, 12-3
- .800 Nebraska, 4-1
- .778 Iowa, 7-2
- .737 Penn State, 14-5
- .733 Wisconsin, 11-4
- .615 Purdue, 8-5
Ohio State's record against Purdue from 2000-2018 suggests that the Buckeyes were a bottom-half team in the league over that time.
Purdue's record against Ohio State from 2000-2018 suggests that the Boilermakers were easily the second best team in the B1G over that time.
Neither of those things are true. Why the anomaly?
The first reason, I would submit, is scheduling. Purdue had unsurprising wins over mediocre Ohio State teams in 2000, 2004, and 2011. Ohio State only had four seasons with more than three losses over the 19 seasons from 2000-2018. Purdue played Ohio State in all four of those seasons and won three of the games. The only other B1G teams to play tOSU in all four of those seasons were Michigan (2-2), Penn State (2-2), and Wisconsin (2-2). The six Ohio State teams that Purdue missed from 2000-2018 were:
- 10-2 B1G co-Champ in 2005
- 12-1 B1G Champ and BCSNCG Participant in 2006
- 14-1 B1G and National Champ in 2014
- 12-1 in 2015
- 11-2 CFP Participant in 2016
- 12-2 B1G Champ in 2017
Statistically, Purdue should have missed at least one of the mediocre tOSU teams and instead played at least one of the above teams that they more-than-likely would have lost to.
The second reason, I would submit, is that Purdue took advantage of the opportunities that the schedule gave them. Note that Michigan, Penn State, and Wisconsin also played all four of the mediocre tOSU teams from 2000-2018 but each of them only went 2-2 where Purdue went 3-1.
The third reason is the crazy upsets. Purdue's wins over Ohio State in 2009 and 2018 are just crazy upsets. You can't seriously argue that the Purdue teams that went 5-7 and 6-7 were actually better than the tOSU teams that went 11-2 and 13-1 but at the right time, in the right place, those Purdue teams managed to be the better team for the right 60 minutes.
The fourth reason, I would submit, is that the sample size isn't all that big so a few bounces makes a big difference. Purdue had the 29 point blowout in 2018 but their other four wins were by one score each:
- 3 points in 2011
- 4 points in 2000
- 7 points in 2004
- 8 points in 2009
If you switch two of those games from PU to tOSU then tOSU's record against PU moves to 10th on the list above, right between Iowa and Penn State. Purdue's record against Ohio State moves to 10th, right between Michigan and Notre Dame.
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Weird that Iowa and Ohio St only played 9 times from 2000-2018. Throw in 2019-2023 where they played only once, that means that Iowa-OSU only played 10 times total in 24 years.
I guess the key reason is Iowa and OSU have only played 3 times in the 13 years since divisions formed in 2011. (2013, 2017 and 2022) .
Yes Iowa and OSU were in opposite divisions both under Leaders-Legends and also under East-West. They were never made annually cross-division rivals. They never played each other in the CCG even though OSU has gone 6 times and Iowa 2 times. Although they still could play each other in the 2023 CCG, but I doubt it. And they originally were supposed to play in 2020 but Covid!
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I thought maybe the Wolverines had overtaken the Boilermakers after two straight wins.
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I thought maybe the Wolverines had overtaken the Boilermakers after two straight wins.
I cut it off because Stassen isn't updated.
Then I cut it off at 2018 simply to cherry 🍒 pick the best possible years for the Boilermakers.
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It's still Purdue though, because each has five wins vs the Buckeyes since 2000, and the Wolverines have way more losses since they play OSU (almost) every year.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/the-situational/2023/10/141520/the-situational-become-ungovernable?amp
Key quote:
IF TROY SMITH, TERRELLE PRYOR, BRAXTON MILLER AND DWAYNE HASKINS CAN LOSE TO PURDUE, SO CAN KYLE MCCORD.
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Yup, I've won a few bar bets with the phrase "Troy Smith never beat Purdue."
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Yup, I've won a few bar bets with the phrase "Troy Smith never beat Purdue."
Where is Kenny Guiton when you need him
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Where is Kenny Guiton when you need him
LoL. I was at both that game that Ohio State should have lost and managed to win and the game the year before in West Lafayette that Ohio State should have won and managed to lose.
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Ohio State 37, Purdue 10
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I'm gonna have to try to find this one on you tube after the fact. On top of the whole Peacock thing there's an eclipse nearby right in the middle of the game, and the edge of it's path is like 70 miles up I-15.
(https://www.sltrib.com/resizer/HziYVCAyUPaxNJ11PjJjgzeUpa4=/300x0/arc-anglerfish-arc2-prod-sltrib/public/FKZWPMLQK5HOXBEUX2GJY76RZQ.png)
I considered watching it in a NV casino, but that's in the exact opposite direction from the eclipse.
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The Purdue offense is starting to come around, but they need to develop the OL before any real magic happens.
Card is a baller, was playing injured at Iowa last week. Might put on a good show, but doubt we see a Spoilermaker upset here.
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mo360rSGBK0
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Ohio State 37, Purdue 10
Not bad can Nubbztradamas borrow your pix?