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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 02, 2023, 11:18:14 AM
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There will be 21 regular season B1G games pitting B1G-E teams against B1G-W teams and the B1GCG will be a 22nd such game. Here is how things are going so far:
- Rutgers over Northwestern 24-7 on September 3, 1-0 E
- Penn State over Illinois 30-13 on September 16, 2-0 E
- Penn State over Iowa 31-0 on September 23, 3-0 E
- Michigan over Nebraska on September 30, 4-0 E
- Penn State over Northwestern on September 30, 5-0 E
- Iowa over Michigan State on September 30, 5-1 E
- Wisconsin over Rutgers on October 7, 5-2 E
- Michigan over Minnesota 52-10 on October 7, 6-2 E
- Ohio State over Purdue 41-7 on October 14, 7-2 E
- Illinois over Maryland 27-24 on October 14, 7-3 E
- Ohio State over Wisconsin 24-10, 8-3 E
- Minnesota over Michigan State 27-12, 8-4 E
- Northwestern over Maryland 33-27, 8-5 E
- Michigan over Purdue 41-13, 9-5 E
- Indiana over Wisconsin 20-14, 10-5 E
- Michigan State over Nebraska 20-17, 11-5 E
- Illinois over Indiana 48-45 on November 11, 11-6 E
- Iowa over Rutgers 22-0 on November 11, 11-7 E
- Maryland over Nebraska 13-10 on November 11, 12-7 E
- Ohio State over Minnesota 37-3 on November 18, 13-7 E
- Indiana at Purdue on November 25
- B1GCG
Edit, updated through 11/18
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i see the west maybe winning a total of 7 games 2/3 of the wins going to the east
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There will be 21 regular season B1G games pitting B1G-E teams against B1G-W teams and the B1GCG will be a 22nd such game. Here is how things are going so far:
- Rutgers over Northwestern 24-7 on September 3, 1-0 E
- Penn State over Illinois 30-13 on September 16, 2-0 E
- Penn State over Iowa 31-0 on September 23, 3-0 E
- Michigan over Nebraska on September 30, 4-0 E
- Penn State over Northwestern on September 30, 5-0 E
- Iowa over Michigan State on September 30, 5-1 E
- Rutgers at Wisconsin on October 7 5-2 E
- Michigan at Minnesota on October 7 6-2 E
- Ohio State at Purdue on October 14 7-2 E
- Illinois at Maryland on October 14 8-2 E
- Ohio State at Wisconsin on October 28 9-2 E
- Michigan State at Minnesota on October 28 9-3 E
- Maryland at Northwestern on October 28 10-3 E
- Purdue at Michigan on November 4 11-3 E
- Wisconsin at Indiana on November 4 11-4 E
- Nebraska at Michigan State on November 4 11-5 E
- Indiana at Illinois on November 11 11-6 E
- Rutgers at Iowa on November 11 11-7 E
- Maryland at Nebraska on November 11 12-7 E
- Minnesota at Ohio State on November 18 13-7 E
- Indiana at Purdue on November 25 13-8 E
The East has a big lead but four of the six contests have been played by either PSU or Michigan for the East so things should tighten up.
Future wins for West in red. This is the best-case scenario and could get a lot uglier than 13-8. Think Ryder Cup here.
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Future wins for West in red. This is the best-case scenario and could get a lot uglier than 13-8. Think Ryder Cup here.
When I guessed, I came up with 13-8 also.
There will be a few upsets but if the balance out it doesn't matter.
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- Rutgers at Wisconsin on October 7
- Illinois at Maryland on October 14
- Maryland at Northwestern on October 28
- Rutgers at Iowa on November 11
- Maryland at Nebraska on November 11
Barring upsets (which do happen of course), the "Big Three" from the East should go 9-0.
I also think that IU and MSU may well go 0-6.
That adds up to a 9-6 advantage for the East and leaves Rutgers and Maryland. Rutgers is already 1-0 (beat NU) so they have five to go. I think the above games are the key.
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One thing that could keep it close is the West gets the extra home game this year. Home field could be the difference in games like Iowa-Rutgers this year.
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I am optimist (from the West"s Perspctive) .
The east will win 11-10. Neb wiil upset MD, and Ohio St will lose at either Wisc or Purdue.
And of course the East will win the CCG to finish 12-10. Again!
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OP updated through 10/7. B1G-E now leads 6-2
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This last year for divisions could potentially be a slaughter. If all favored teams win, the east could end up 15-6 VS the West. Even with the usual 2-3 upsets, would get it only down to 13-8 or 12-9.
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I don't want to over-react to the Illinois-MD game but there is a chance the West can make this respectable.
In fact, If MD, MSU, Ind and Rutgers lose every single cross-over game they have left, the West could even win this thing!
OK, maybe I am over-reacting.
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The East is down to two cupcakes this year, with Indiana and Michigan State.
In the past, the West could feast on Indiana, Rutgers, Maryland and the Wolverines.
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There are no East vs West games this weekend. Then there are three next weekend:
- Ohio State at Wisconsin on October 28
- Michigan State at Minnesota on October 28
- Maryland at Northwestern on October 28
Those are interesting to be because I could see either team winning any of those games:
Ohio State at Wisconsin:
Ohio State will be a big favorite and I'm more confident as a Buckeye fan after seeing the Hawkeyes win in Madison but this game still worries me. It is at night in Camp Randall and Ohio State will be coming off of a huge game against Penn State that will also be a very physical game.
Michigan State at Minnesota:
Michigan State's record is awful but they've been statistically MUCH better than their record and they had Rutgers beat before choking away that game. In theory Minnesota should win but PJ's oarsmen managed to lose to Northwestern so anything is possible.
Maryland at Northwestern:
A week ago I had this as an absolute lock for the Terps. Then the Terps somehow lost to Illinois. Maybe that was just a crazy one-off. Maybe, as @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) said, the Terps simply let tOSU beat them twice. Still, if the Terps can lose to Illinois they can lose to Northwestern.
The East leads 7-3. If they sweep these that will grow to 10-3 and the West can't possibly recover from that. OTOH, if the West sweeps these this thing will be almost tied heading into November.
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ESPN's FPI updates odds for each team to win the battle for the B1G West
ESPN’s FPI has its answer. It gives all 4 at least an 8% chance of winning the West, with Iowa at the No. 1 spot.
Here’s the FPI’s full odds:
Iowa: 40.9%
Wisconsin: 37. 2%
Minnesota: 11.8%
Nebraska: 8.9%
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So East now leads 8-5.
I would put the West chance to win against Mich, OSU and PSU as almost zero
BUT If Rut, MD, MSU and Ind lose all their remaining games against the West, the West could be ahead 11-10 before the CCG.
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OP updated
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There will be 21 regular season B1G games pitting B1G-E teams against B1G-W teams and the B1GCG will be a 22nd such game. Here is how things are going so far:
- Rutgers over Northwestern 24-7 on September 3, 1-0 E
- Penn State over Illinois 30-13 on September 16, 2-0 E
- Penn State over Iowa 31-0 on September 23, 3-0 E
- Michigan over Nebraska on September 30, 4-0 E
- Penn State over Northwestern on September 30, 5-0 E
- Iowa over Michigan State on September 30, 5-1 E
- Wisconsin over Rutgers on October 7, 5-2 E
- Michigan over Minnesota 52-10 on October 7, 6-2 E
- Ohio State over Purdue 41-7 on October 14, 7-2 E
- Illinois over Maryland 27-24 on October 14, 7-3 E
- Ohio State over Wisconsin 24-10, 8-3 E
- Minnesota over Michigan State 27-12, 9-3 E
- Northwestern over Maryland 33-27, 9-4 E
- Purdue at Michigan on November 4
- Wisconsin at Indiana on November 4
- Nebraska at Michigan State on November 4
- Indiana at Illinois on November 11
- Rutgers at Iowa on November 11
- Maryland at Nebraska on November 11
- Minnesota at Ohio State on November 18
- Indiana at Purdue on November 25
- B1GCG
Edit, updated through 10/28
Not to quibble, because you got the end correct, but the numbers after MN/MSU should be 8-4.
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Not to quibble, because you got the end correct, but the numbers after MN/MSU should be 8-4.
Thanks for catching that, and I didn't get the end right. Fixing it now.
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Thanks for catching that, and I didn't get the end right. Fixing it now.
Yeah, math is hard when you try to do it in an old head.
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boy howdy
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So the East has clinched a regular season win and at least a tie overall.
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So the East leads 11-5 after the West had an awful week in Week 10, going 0-3 against the East.
Looking ahead to week 11, there are 3 cross-division games
Ind @ILL
MD @Neb
Rut @Iowa
So each West team should be favored but not by much. You got to figure the East would win at least 1 out of 3, which will clinch it for the east (again). But even if the West goes 3-0 this week, you got Minn @OSU the next week.
So really all the West is fighting for now is respectability. The worst the West has ever done I believe is 8-13 (8-14 with CCG). But 2023 may be by far the worse effort ever because the West actually had home field advantage this year and still has no teams ranked today.
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west teams @ home
hopefully, it helps
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There will be 21 regular season B1G games pitting B1G-E teams against B1G-W teams and the B1GCG will be a 22nd such game. Here is how things are going so far:
- Indiana at Illinois on November 11
- Rutgers at Iowa on November 11
- Maryland at Nebraska on November 11
- Minnesota at Ohio State on November 18
- Indiana at Purdue on November 25
- B1GCG
So the East is up 11-5 with just these six left. After this weekend the East will be a huge favorite in two of the remaining three (tOSU/MN and CG) so this weekend more-or-less wraps this thing up.
This weekend's games are interesting. The West is the home team in all three but they are all basically toss-ups according to Vegas:
- Rutgers +1 at Iowa
- Maryland -2 at Nebraska
- Indiana +6.5 at Illinois
A sweep by the West would get them to their previous low of eight wins.
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Maryland's win clinches a win for the East.
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OP updated through the Veteran's Day games. The best the West can do is a 12-10 loss.
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Yes, the East now leads 12-7 with only 3 games left. The West is only fighting for respect now. Assuming Ohio St beats Minn next week and the East also wins the CCG, the only way the West can avoid its all time worst performance is for Purdue to beat Indiana the final week of the regular season.
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Updated
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Yes, this is close now to be being officially the worst year ever for the West. What was once mainly a perception problem for the West now has become real. The West is just awful, both in perception and in reality.
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Yes, this is close now to be being officially the worst year ever for the West. What was once mainly a perception problem for the West now has become real. The West is just awful, both in perception and in reality.
True.
The West was always weaker at the very top but a lot of years the West was pretty clearly better top-to-bottom.
A big part of the difference is the improvement of Michigan and Penn State. That puts the West at a huge disadvantage because none of their teams are even close to the East's top-3. It has always been that way wrt tOSU but now that extends to M and PSU as well.
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Who is favored to win the Old Oaken Bucket?