CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 25, 2023, 12:09:48 PM
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So the end of the tOSU/Notre Dame game got me thinking about a few things. I thought I'd run them past this group.
First, I don't exactly understand the rule regarding the PAT and as I understand it, it is different in CFB vs NFL:
The initial call on the field was that Ohio State scored to take a 16-14 lead as time expired. In that case, the game would have been over. Ohio State wins 16-14 and there is no PAT.
After review it was determined that tOSU did score to take a 16-14 lead, but they did so with 00:01 on the clock so the Buckeyes had a 16-14 lead but they still had to run a PAT play, kickoff, and IF time did not expire on the kickoff, play defense for one play.
First question:
Was it a mistake for Ohio State to even try the XP? If it had been blocked, ND could have returned it ~100 yards for 2 points and a tie game. Would it make more sense to just line up in the familiar victory formation and take a knee? The difference between a two and a three point lead is only relevant if the other team kicks a FG but how would ND kick a FG with only one second left?
Probably makes sense to kick the XP because it is a routine and fairly low risk play and I suppose ND could have tried a long FG if Ohio State had somehow committed a personal foul or two on the kickoff.
Second is more of a theory than a question but I'm curious what you guys think. Whenever our teams get into those Hail Mary situations I think we all immediately think of Hail Flutie or
https://youtu.be/q3ykWbu2Gl0?si=uPJAAmQ6Re9EFnBH
Colorado's Kordell Stewart Miracle at Michigan:
https://youtu.be/0WCCLdf7rv8?si=SQfpj9tudtcbWjUE
The thing is that Colorado's miracle in Ann Arbor was 29 years ago and Boston College's Hail Flutie was 39 years ago. We still think and talk about those plays (everyone here knows those plays just by reference) because they are incredibly rare. For every successful Hail Mary TD there are probably hundreds of failures.
What Notre Dame did in a similar situation makes more sense, IMHO. Instead of chucking the ball way down field and praying, they ran a hook-and-lateral in what I think was an effort to get more of their team involved.
Schematically the challenge that the offense faces is that only five guys can move beyond the LoS prior to a forward pass. In these situations the D typically only rushes three so the offense is outnumbered downfield by 8:5.
When an offense throws a Hail Mary or runs a hook-and-lateral, they are severely outnumbered.
Thus, my theory is that it would make more sense to run a play closer to or even behind the LoS where you could make it an 11 on 11 game.
My theory:
- Keep the C and QB in the game so you don't screw up the exchange.
- Replace the OG's and OT's with faster TE's. Ie, your Oline would be a C and 4 TE's.
- Your other six guys should be a mix of RB's and WR's to put your best and smartest on the field.
- Let the Dline through and throw a screen to someone behind the C and the 4 TE's.
It probably wouldn't work but Hail Mary plays almost never work. At least this way all 11 guys can be involved in either blocking or carrying the ball.
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Interesting, this relates a bit to the infamous "Kick Six" Auburn used to beat Bama. Bama had their FG team out there, big slow guys mostly, and Auburn had a fleet returner. In your scenario, the offensive team would be akin to Auburn, but the defensive team wouldn't be big slow dudes.
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I'd have strongly considered going for 2.
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I thought you still had to attempt the PAT, for that very reason
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I'd have strongly considered going for 2.
Yeah, I don't like Notre Dame either but this is WAY too risky because a fumble ot INT returned the other way ties it up.
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I thought you still had to attempt the PAT, for that very reason
I saw somewhere that you do in the NFL but not in CFB. I can't confirm that and I don't even remember where I saw it so part of the reason I posted this was that I'd like that explained to me.
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Thus, my theory is that it would make more sense to run a play closer to or even behind the LoS where you could make it an 11 on 11 game.
My theory:
- Keep the C and QB in the game so you don't screw up the exchange.
- Replace the OG's and OT's with faster TE's. Ie, your Oline would be a C and 4 TE's.
- Your other six guys should be a mix of RB's and WR's to put your best and smartest on the field.
- Let the Dline through and throw a screen to someone behind the C and the 4 TE's.
It probably wouldn't work but Hail Mary plays almost never work. At least this way all 11 guys can be involved in either blocking or carrying the ball.
So you're basically turning the play into a kickoff return. It's effectively a special teams play. And we know how often those result in TD's lol... Fundamentally you have the problem (as you always do) that the defense has the advantage of angles.
IMHO if you're within throwing distance, the Hail Mary is the best option. It's quite frankly a chaos play, but the ball gets to the EZ and hopefully one of your players catches it.
If you're too far away to throw the length of the field, all you can hope is to get your player in space and hope something good happens. I'd argue that the advantage of a hook & lateral is that A) you pick up some of that distance you need to cover through the air and B) the player that catches the lateral has built up a head of steam and is traveling at a high rate of speed.
I feel like a screen pass or something like that gives the defense too much time to react.
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Yeah, I don't like Notre Dame either but this is WAY too risky because a fumble ot INT returned the other way ties it up.
QB sneak. Done.
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So you're basically turning the play into a kickoff return. It's effectively a special teams play. And we know how often those result in TD's lol... Fundamentally you have the problem (as you always do) that the defense has the advantage of angles.
It is definitely a low percentage play but in that situation all the options are low percentage plays. It is a question of how low.
IMHO if you're within throwing distance, the Hail Mary is the best option. It's quite frankly a chaos play, but the ball gets to the EZ and hopefully one of your players catches it.
If you're too far away to throw the length of the field, all you can hope is to get your player in space and hope something good happens. I'd argue that the advantage of a hook & lateral is that A) you pick up some of that distance you need to cover through the air and B) the player that catches the lateral has built up a head of steam and is traveling at a high rate of speed.
I feel like a screen pass or something like that gives the defense too much time to react.
You are probably right that the best option is to get the ball you the Endzone IF you can. In the famous plays from above:
- Hail Flutie appears to snap from about 48 yards out with Flutie actually throwing from about 65.
- Kordell Stewart's play appears to snap from about 65 yards out with Stewart actually throwing the ball from about 75 yards out. That is incredible.
Note that in both cases the QB ended up throwing from 10+ yards behind the LoS because he had to dance for time to allow his WR's to sprint the 50-70 yards to the EZ.
I'm assuming that Hartman simply doesn't have the arm to throw a 75 yard pass (not a knock, very few QB's do) so Marcus Freeman didn't have that option.
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IMHO if you're within throwing distance, the Hail Mary is the best option. It's quite frankly a chaos play, but the ball gets to the EZ and hopefully one of your players catches it.
THIS
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THIS
Ok, I think you and @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) are right IF you are within throwing distance but what about when you aren't, like Notre Dame on Saturday night?
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Auburn had their punt return team out there for the Kick Six.
After the Minnesota Miracle, when forced to do something on the PAT, the Vikings lined up in victory formation and knelt down. However, that was with 0:00 on the clock.
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Ok, I think you and @betarhoalphadelta (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) are right IF you are within throwing distance but what about when you aren't, like Notre Dame on Saturday night?
I think the advantage of a hook & lateral is multi-faceted:
- It takes the DL out of the play. Anything behind the LOS is close enough that those defenders are still involved in the play.
- The defense is covering multiple receivers and is spread out in the secondary, because they don't know 100% that a hook & lateral is coming, who the initial receiver will be, and where the lateral player is coming from.
- The play develops downfield and more quickly, so it is more likely that there will be fewer defenders in a position to make a play.
If you're going to throw a screen or something behind the LOS, the entire defense is keyed in on the initial receiver / ballcarrier. The only realistic way to make it 75+ yards through that kind of a gauntlet involves laterals, to get the ball out of your hands as the defense closes in. However, as laterals are always backwards (and time-consuming), you give the defense even more time to react to those, as you're moving backwards in space, while also throwing the ball, increasing the chances of fumbling. Hence why "crazy lateral" plays work even LESS frequently than a hook & lateral.
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I think the advantage of a hook & lateral is multi-faceted:
- It takes the DL out of the play. Anything behind the LOS is close enough that those defenders are still involved in the play.
You are probably right because the hook-and-lateral is what most teams in this situation do, for example ND on Saturday night.
That said, this particular argument makes no sense to me because while it does take the (usually) three DL out of the play, it also takes the five OL and the QB out of the play.
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You are probably right because the hook-and-lateral is what most teams in this situation do, for example ND on Saturday night.
That said, this particular argument makes no sense to me because while it does take the (usually) three DL out of the play, it also takes the five OL and the QB out of the play.
What do teams more often score on (in non end of game situations), a screen pass or a slant, post, or deep crossing route?
Based on your logic, a screen pass should be a massive scoring play... You've got 5 OL plus 4 TE/WR blocking for 1 RB, against perhaps 3 LB and 4 DB, assuming the defense rushed 4. 9 blockers against 7 defenders. 7 defenders who aren't in a 4-deep shell coverage trying to give up anything EXCEPT the big play, so they have other responsibilities. The math is even more in favor compared to the rush 3 / drop 8 scenario.
But no, the screen doesn't go to the house from 75 very often. Too much opportunity for the defense to key on ONE guy.
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What do teams more often score on (in non end of game situations), a screen pass or a slant, post, or deep crossing route?
Based on your logic, a screen pass should be a massive scoring play... You've got 5 OL plus 4 TE/WR blocking for 1 RB, against perhaps 3 LB and 4 DB, assuming the defense rushed 4. 9 blockers against 7 defenders. 7 defenders who aren't in a 4-deep shell coverage trying to give up anything EXCEPT the big play, so they have other responsibilities. The math is even more in favor compared to the rush 3 / drop 8 scenario.
But no, the screen doesn't go to the house from 75 very often. Too much opportunity for the defense to key on ONE guy.
Right, but in a normal play, when that one guy is close to getting tackled he generally either goes down or goes out of bounds.
This, by definition, is a desperation play. Taking the risk of lateraling is worth it because the alternative is to lose the game.
After the first pass it is simply a chaos play. All 11 guys on offense need to try to advance the ball, block, or position themselves for the next lateral.
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First of all, all of these outcomes are <1% chance of success, so it's not a great opportunity to find an inefficiency here. None of it'll work, so who cares?
But as a fun exercise, the screen people are forgetting something: the guy with the ball is much faster than anyone blocking for him.
In prevent defenses, that guy can't outrun anyone on the defense, as they're deep and coming up to the ball-carrier.
So that Raghib Ismail inside tunnel screen isn't going to work. Ismail is past his blockers and/or faster than them, AND 6 guys are back deep between him and the end zone.
When that play is used in a normal situation, he just has to split 2 DBs, not 6 guys laying in wait.
We all remember Flutie and we all remember THE BAND IS OUT ON THE FIELD, but the most normal-looking, too-deep-for-a-hail-mary success story was LSU's miracle vs Kentucky.
They ran a normal deep pass play, threw it deep, and the receiver's bobbling of the ball got him past the prevent guys and on into the end zone.
I think that might be the best bet, because it's neither a hail mary nor a Cal-Stanford ending.
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First of all, all of these outcomes are <1% chance of success, so it's not a great opportunity to find an inefficiency here. None of it'll work, so who cares?
I agree 100% here. We are trying to find the least bad option in what is a very difficult situation.
But as a fun exercise, the screen people are forgetting something: the guy with the ball is much faster than anyone blocking for him.
In prevent defenses, that guy can't outrun anyone on the defense, as they're deep and coming up to the ball-carrier.
So that Raghib Ismail inside tunnel screen isn't going to work. Ismail is past his blockers and/or faster than them, AND 6 guys are back deep between him and the end zone.
When that play is used in a normal situation, he just has to split 2 DBs, not 6 guys laying in wait.
We all remember Flutie and we all remember THE BAND IS OUT ON THE FIELD, but the most normal-looking, too-deep-for-a-hail-mary success story was LSU's miracle vs Kentucky.
They ran a normal deep pass play, threw it deep, and the receiver's bobbling of the ball got him past the prevent guys and on into the end zone.
I think that might be the best bet, because it's neither a hail mary nor a Cal-Stanford ending.
This is correct too. One thing I'll note is that upthread I suggested replacing your normal OL with a bunch of TE's. My thinking there was to get faster blockers on the field. Granted a Raghib Ishmail is going to be fasted than the TE's too but at least the difference isn't quite so big AND, operating on the assumption that there will be multiple laterals on a successful play (ie, the band is on the field), the TE's are going to be able to keep up with the play better than OL's.
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I think the assumption of multiple successful laterals is, well, a very bad assumption...
Again, anything predicated on multiple laterals all over the place entails throwing the ball laterally and backwards, away from your objective. It's risky, time-consuming, and lets the defense regroup.
The success rate IMHO is far worse than a hook and lateral.
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70+ yard end-of-game TD plays that have worked......
We know Cal-Stanford was a kickoff return.
Miami did the same thing to Duke like 6-7 years ago.
I believe some Div-II team did it in a big game.
The only hook 'n lateral that I know of is Boise vs OU in that Fiesta Bowl.
I don't recall any others.
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How many times did Nebraska get Hail Maryed in 2015?
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too many
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So definitely not the one in a million scenario.
They show Stewart and Flutie a lot because they were insanely deep bombs, not because they were merely successful Hail Marys.
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I thought it was because they were top teams and one led to a Heisman.
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Every year you have Heisman moments for successful teams.
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They show Stewart and Flutie a lot because they were insanely deep bombs, not because they were merely successful Hail Marys.
Well how do we define it?
IMHO, it isn't a "Hail mary" unless it is deep enough that the QB can't really throw accurately to an intended WR but rather just chucks the ball and prays (the Hail Mary part) that a guy with the same color shirt catches it.
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nope, the original "Hail Mary" was a long pass by Roger Staubach of the Cowboys vs the Vikings in an NFC playoff game
Roger chucked it with about 20 seconds on the clock to a single WR, Drew Pearson
https://youtu.be/ZEZKpY8t4EQ
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I idly wonder if one might go "wildcat" and eliminate the QB from the equation with 75 yards to go. A QB is kind of a useless player once he hands it off or throws a short pass (with some exceptions). If you use a "14" formation, just put the shiftiest back on direct snap and go for it ...?
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What does the group think? How do YOU define a "Hail Mary"?
To me it is a play run in the final seconds by a team that is behind by one score (ie, could win or tie by scoring) where said play is run from far enough out that the offense can't realistically score on a "normal" play so they have to get wacky/crazy.
Ie, I wouldn't consider tOSU's play from the ND 1 yard line a Hail Mary (even if they had thrown it) because that is so close to the goal that you aren't running wacky stuff, just running a normal play.
I'd say the same thing even if they hadn't gotten the first down at the 1 and had run their final play from ~30 yards out because even from there the QB can target a specific WR relatively accurately.
It only becomes a "Hail Mary" in my estimation when you get to round midfield where the QB can't realistically target a specific WR and just has to chuck the ball up and see what happens.
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I mean he threw this one from the 50
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bEPylRzJcc
and it happened to Nebraska three or four times that year.
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I idly wonder if one might go "wildcat" and eliminate the QB from the equation with 75 yards to go. A QB is kind of a useless player once he hands it off or throws a short pass (with some exceptions). If you use a "14" formation, just put the shiftiest back on direct snap and go for it ...?
This is going the same direction as my thinking.
When I considered personnel above I replaced the OT's and OG's with TE's because I reasoned that TE's are faster so they can keep up with the play and contribute downfield.
I had kept the C and QB only to assure a smooth exchange but your idea to eliminate the QB fits with that thinking.
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I view a "HM" as a pass play, we're here discussing options from 75 yards out and one play to go. Is a hook and lateral a "HM"? I'd be OK with that. Is a screen pass followed by multiple laterals an HM? I'd guess not.
But in common parlance, a HM refers to ANY very low percentage option when one is desparate.
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IMO a hail mary is a desperation long pass - a one time heave with your eyes closed and a prayer
not a bunch of laterals or other silliness
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The term is used broadly in things other than football of course.
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The term is used broadly in things other than football of course.
yes, but this is a football board
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If the term is used broadly to mean "a last gasp desparate play against the odds", it could be used for a running play in football. Whether it is or not just depends on the individual.
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yup, some individuals are wrong ;)
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If the term is used broadly to mean "a last gasp desparate play against the odds", it could be used for a running play in football. Whether it is or not just depends on the individual.
It could, but it is not.
Using it in that context would be like inviting @utee94 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=15) for sandwiches and serving tacos. You can argue that it's an acceptable use of the term and still have it be poor communication.
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Don't get me wrong, I absolutely LOVE tacos.
But yeah, I would be confused and consider it a miscommunication.
On a football message board full of football savvy fans, if someone makes a reference to a "hail Mary" play then I'm going to assume it's a low percentage long pass play, with the intention of scoring a touchdown, and I'll also likely infer that it was at the end of a half, when such plays are most common.
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What does the group think? How do YOU define a "Hail Mary"?
To me it is a play run in the final seconds by a team that is behind by one score (ie, could win or tie by scoring) where said play is run from far enough out that the offense can't realistically score on a "normal" play so they have to get wacky/crazy.
Bing Videos
(https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=2011+ohio+state+wisconsin+hail+mary&mid=3B823D8C969E6A766F753B823D8C969E6A766F75)Bing Videos (https://www.bing.com/videos/riverview/relatedvideo?q=2011+michigan+state+wisconsin+hail+mary&mid=BD4C5BBA9A1EABBE6B22BD4C5BBA9A1EABBE6B22)
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Could we distinguish between a "Hail Mary PLAY" and a "Hail Mary Pass"?
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Could we distinguish between a "Hail Mary PLAY" and a "Hail Mary Pass"?
You could, but I don't. A Hail Mary play IS a Hail Mary pass. The "Hail Mary" bit is the part where you're praying while that moon ball arcs its way toward the goal line and the 18-20 players waiting for it there. That's the entire point of the name.
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How many times did Nebraska get Hail Maryed in 2015?
I think NW had one of those years too, it might had been 2013. NW kept losing games in the last minute or OT by the most unlikely ways.
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I think I heard that OSU was a 2.5 to 3.0 point favorite against ND. So kicking the extra point did matter to bettors, at least.
I was also under the impression that the extra second mattered more with the kickoff than the extra point. That the team still has to try the PAT even if the TD put them ahead. Of course if there is no time left, the team can still take a knee if they want.
But if the team that scored the TD, with no time left, is behind or tied, then they definitely get to try the PAT with no time on the clock. That we can all agree on.
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You could, but I don't. A Hail Mary play IS a Hail Mary pass. The "Hail Mary" bit is the part where you're praying while that moon ball arcs its way toward the goal line and the 18-20 players waiting for it there. That's the entire point of the name.
Agreed. We have a known play that has a near-universally agreed upon definition. If there was a compelling argument for how changing this would improve communication, I'd be all ears. But in my opinion it would do the opposite, and lead to more confusion, if we start stretching the term to include a wider group of plays.
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You could call them "last chance" plays or "last ditch efforts" or something like that. And the football-savvy audience would understand exactly what you're saying.
Announcer1: Well there's only one second on the clock and the Bears are down by 4. A field goal won't help them, they absolutely must have a touchdown, so they'll have to make some last ditch effort here.
Announder2: You're exactly right, Annoucer1. They could try a Hail Mary, or they might resort to some kind of trickery with a hook and lateral or another gadget play.
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Thanx 94 for the audition I'm sure the world wide leader will be getting back with you. A real possibilty when considering who they have left
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So let it be written, so let it be done, A "Hail Mary" is forever more ONLY a long pass as a last attempt to salvage a game, or score before half time."
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So let it be written, so let it be done, A "Hail Mary" is forever more ONLY a long pass as a last attempt to salvage a game, or score before half time."
Amen.
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How many times did Nebraska get Hail Maryed in 2015?
They won a game that year on a near hail mary where their receiver ran out of bounds
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great gadget play that fooled the defense!
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great gadget play that fooled the defense!
And the zebras
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those guys are easy
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A hail mary is a long pass play at the end of the game from a certain distance but not exceeding a certain distance. Like if you're at your own 20, you're not throwing a hail mary, and that's where the 23 lateral hijinks plays come into play.
For most QBs, a hail mary try probably expires around their own 40 yard line. Backed up further than that, you get your hook-n-laterals and rugby tactics.
You could argue real hail marys only occur in the 20-yards from 40 yard line to 40 yard line.
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You could argue real hail marys only occur in the 20-yards from 40 yard line to 40 yard line.
In general, yes. Too far for a designed play but close enough for a desperate heave.
For a QB with a howitzer, it might extend a little farther, but given the mention that you're probably throwing it from 7-10 yards behind the LOS to give your players a chance to get downfield, it's gotta be a real live arm to get it there if inside your own 40 yard line...
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I want to say that LSU vs UK "too far" hail mary was Marcus Randall to Deverey Henderson. But the bobble was key....idk, it could have just been Kentucky being Kentucky.
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Last night's B12 instant classic Houston vs. West Virginia :)
https://twitter.com/awfulannouncing/status/1712662334005502059?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1712662334005502059%7Ctwgr%5E3f6db04a77960d3b6923f59ade8dddc69480dfcb%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.surlyhorns.com%2Fboard%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcoremodule%3Dsystemcontroller%3Dembedurl%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fawfulannouncing%2Fstatus%2F1712662334005502059%3Ft%3D8e6BbThpb1u3XJvbYTu0Wg26s%3D19
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I was hoping West Virginia would win, that is one way to end the ball game. Kind of wish I had been watching it live, but I suppose being social is a positive of some sort.
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Texas doesn't play WVU and does play Houston so this helps our chances to get to B12 CCG.
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The Gallaudet University football team invented the huddle in 1894 so that its deaf players could "read" the play called by the quarterback.
(https://i.imgur.com/KzqJw3Q.jpeg)