While it's true that no Big Ten West team controls its destiny fully, that is also allowing for an Illinois upset of Michigan. While its college football and crazy things happen, I don't see Illinois ending a 2 game losing streak, where they lost back to back home games to Michigan State and Purdue, by winning on the road in Ann Arbor. The last time Michigan lost a non-COVID year home game to anyone other than Ohio State was to Michigan State in 2017. Their last home loss to a Big Ten West team? The 2014 Shane Morris concussion game loss to Minnesota that got the ball rolling down hill towards Brady Hoke's firing. We aren't here to talk about Michigan-Illinois. The point is, assuming Michigan wins that game, then Iowa is the team that controls their own destiny. That starts by winning their 8th straight game in a rivalry that the Hawkeyes have dominated recently. A win here would make this a tie for the 2nd longest winning streak by either school in the series, tying Minnesota's run from 1931-1938, behind only Minnesota's 12 game winning streak to start the series, from 1891-1916. The point is, nobody remembers the series ever being as one sided as its been recently in favor of Kirk Ferentz. Minnesota's chances might depend on the health of Tanner Morgan. After Athan Kaliakmanis came in and led a comeback against Nebraska two weeks ago, there was a lot of clamoring for him to get the keys to finish the season. While Minnesota pounded Northwestern, Kaliakmanis completed only 7 passes, and was held to just 92 yards of total offense. While Iowa isn't going to run away from anyone, you cant rely on running the ball nearly 60 times at 5.2 ypc. There has to be at least some balance. Assuming Morgan can play, Minnesota can do enough of the stuff that prevents Iowa from being able to Iowa up a game. They have the nation's best 3rd down offense, the nation's 2nd best 3rd down defense, and rank in the top 25 in giveaway rate. Iowa relies on sitting on you until you screw up, and while Minnesota isn't going to do a ton, they probably won't screw it up either. Assuming Morgan plays, in what I think is a coin flip game, I'll just take the home team. |