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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 12, 2022, 09:56:10 PM
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The East now will officially be determined by THE GAME. The M/IL and tOSU/UMD games are irrelevant as to who goes to Indy.
The West is a mess and nobody controls their own destiny.
The only things we know for sure are:
- The winner will be at least 5-4 (because MN and Iowa play next weekend and one of them will pick up their fifth win).
- Due to #2, Nebraska and Northwestern are officially mathematically eliminated.
The next most certain thing is that Wisconsin cannot make it to Indy without lots of unlikely help.
It is extremely likely that at least one of the three-loss teams will win out. If we treat that as an assumption then Wisconsin and the Iowa/Minnesota loser are out.
Here are the 4-3 teams, what they have left, and their H2H results against other teams that could tie them at 6-3:
- Purdue, vsNU, atIU: Beat IL and MN, lost to IA
- Illinois, atM, atNU: Beat IA and MN, lost to PU
- Iowa, atMN, vsUNL: Beat PU, lost to IL
- Minnesota, vsIA, atUW: Lost to PU and IL
In the event of a three way tie in which each of the teams are 1-1 against the other two the next tiebreaker is divisional record. Here are their divisional records assuming they win out:
- 5-1 Illinois
- 5-1 Iowa
- 4-2 Purdue
- 4-2 Minnesota
None of them control their own destiny because each could miss even if they win out. Here is at least one way each could miss the CG even at 6-3:
- Purdue would lose a tie with Iowa.
- Illinois would lose a tie with Purdue.
- Iowa would lose a tie with Illinois.
- Minnesota would lose any tie.
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I'm fairly confident Purdue wins out and Illinois doesn't.
So the wildcard is whether or not the Iowa-Minnesota winner can win again the following week.
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Purdue has head to head over Minnesooota, but not Iowa
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If I had to guess at the odds of each Big Ten West team winning out, going 2-0 in their last 2 games, I would guess
ILL 4%
Purdue 64%
IOWA 37%
MINN 25%
WISC 37%
Therefore I would guess the odds of each team winning the division and going to the CCG as
Purdue 40%
Iowa 33%
Minn 22%
ILL 5%
Wisc <1%
In other words: Chaos!
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Purdue only 64%???
Northwestern home and @ Indiana?
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Purdue, unless Iowa wins out.
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Purdue only 64%???
Northwestern home and @ Indiana?
Well, Purdue has not been the most consistent team this season and Indiana did find a way to beat Illinois this season. Still, giving Purdue a 64% chance to win out is much higher than I gave any other team in the West.
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well we all know Northwestern's struggles since returning from Ireland
and the Hoosiers have lost their last 7
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I'm fairly confident Purdue wins out and Illinois doesn't.
If we assume those two things then there are three possibilities:
- Purdue wins outright, Purdue to CG.
- Purdue ties Minnesota, Purdue to CG.
- Purdue ties Iowa, Iowa to CG.
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Illinois loses next Saturday, Iowa and Purdue win out. Iowa is the Big Ten West co-champion and heads to Indy again.
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to get pounded by Michigan, AGAIN
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It's great that the "reward" for winning the West is now a sentence to a beatdown.
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That's on the West
and the Huskers are certainly part of the problem
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So are the Badgers.
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Iowa is the Big Ten West co-champion and heads to Indy again.
to get pounded by Michigan, AGAIN
I don't know you anymore
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gotta hold up your end ;)
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Da Fuq they are,and I even rooted for the 'Skers.Booger is trying to get Corum some Heisman votes instead of resting him.
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28 carries in a game that was never in question
I would have saved his carries for the goalline after he had 120 yards
get some TDs, get some rest
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(https://scontent.ffod1-1.fna.fbcdn.net/v/t39.30808-6/315559331_698302318328738_2677379417685620989_n.jpg?_nc_cat=108&ccb=1-7&_nc_sid=730e14&_nc_ohc=7iefBEHeIPYAX9GtkP4&_nc_ht=scontent.ffod1-1.fna&oh=00_AfCEKc0pIpHiLCCZbNLfyUIOybUYhHqCUJSt0Iii1ISMZw&oe=637967BA)
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Nobody controls their own density?
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Nobody controls their own density?
Nobody. That's the beauty of tiebreakers. Assuming the division winner is 6-3, then..
Purdue wins a 2-way tie with Illinois or Minn, but...
Iowa wins a 2-way tie with Purdue, but...
Illinois wins a 2-way tie with Iowa or Minn, and...
Illinois wins a 3-way tie with Purdue and Iowa or Minn.
Minn essentially can't win any ties at 6-3.
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That is pretty amazing to me. That division is a mess, and whoever wins may wish they hadn't.
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That is pretty amazing to me. That division is a mess, and whoever wins may wish they hadn't.
I kinda was wishing Illinois or Purdue would wrap it up by now and go into the CCG with a halfway decent record. At least Wisc, NW and Iowa have got their shot recently. Time to give somebody else a chance.
Odds are still favoring Purdue to win because I don't believe ILL or Iowa will win their last 2 games. At one point I was thinking at least Purdue could score some points against Mich or OSU, but after seeing Purdue's offense lay an egg against Wisc and Iowa, I have little hope. Maybe Jeff Brahm will surprise us all.
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If you think about it, maybe the best case scenario for the Big Ten is for ILL to upset Mich, then have Mich beat OSU, then have Mich avenge its only loss against ILL in the CCG.
You may ask how is that better than Mich beating ILL first and then beating Purdue in the CCG and finishing undefeated? OK you got me there. Never mind.
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If you think about it, maybe the best case scenario for the Big Ten is for ILL to upset Mich, then have Mich beat OSU, then have Mich avenge its only loss against ILL in the CCG.
You may ask how is that better than Mich beating ILL first and then beating Purdue in the CCG and finishing undefeated? OK you got me there. Never mind.
I'm not sure that any of this matters.
If the tOSU/M winner wins their other two games they'll obviously be in the CFP and they'll be either:
- #1 if UGA loses, or
- #2 if UGA is 13-0.
A fairly likely CFP scenario, I think, is:
- 13-0 UGA, SEC Champion
- 13-0 tOSU/M, B1G Champion
- 13-0 TCU, B12 Champion
- 12-1 USC, P12 Champion
I could end up regretting this but if tOSU is #2 there, I'd be happy to be playing TCU rather than USC anyway so I don't even know if we'd want the #1 seed.
Where it gets really goofy is if LSU upsets UGA in the B12CG, especially if the committee doesn't easily have room for two SEC teams. Possibly:
- 13-0 tOSU/M, B1G Champion
- 13-0 TCU, B12 Champion
- 12-1 UGA, not a Champion
- 12-1 USC, P12 Champion
With11-2 SEC Champion LSU left out along with 11-1 TN and the tOSU/M loser.
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Nobody. That's the beauty of tiebreakers. Assuming the division winner is 6-3, then..
Purdue wins a 2-way tie with Illinois or Minn, but...
Iowa wins a 2-way tie with Purdue, but...
Illinois wins a 2-way tie with Iowa or Minn, and...
Illinois wins a 3-way tie with Purdue and Iowa or Minn.
Minn essentially can't win any ties at 6-3.
Nobody controls their own density?
Iowa sort of does control its own destiny.
It is very unlikely Illinois defeats Michigan. It seems likely Iowa defeats Minnesota and Nebraska in unconvincing fashion.
Yet this scenario seems so humiliating because Iowa would face Michigan or Ohio State who would each stopIowa for 5-yards total offense in the championship game. Iowa would have to score at least 4 safeties to win, and probably 24 safeties just to be competitive.
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it's very likely Iowa defeats Nebraska
I don't feel it's likely to defeat the Gophers in Minnie
it might happen, but.........
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I know that at least @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) will like this:
The most convoluted possible scenario I can come up with in the B1G-W is a 5-way tie at 5-4. Here is how it could happen:
- Wisconsin has to win out (atUNL, vsMN).
- Since Minnesota loses to Wisconsin in the Ax game, they have to beat Iowa for Floyd.
- Since Iowa loses Floyd, they have to beat Nebraska on Black Friday.
- Illinois (atM, atNU) and Purdue (vsNU, atIU) both split their last two games and it makes no difference which one they win so long as they each win one and lose one.
Minnesota, Illinois, Purdue, Iowa, and Wisconsin would all be 5-4. The first (and in this case decisive) tiebreaker is H2H2H2H2H and Illinois wins:
- 3-1 Illinois: beat MN, IA, UW; lost to PU
- 2-2 Purdue: beat MN, IL; lost to IA. UW
- 2-2 Iowa: beat PU, UW: lost to MN, IL
- 2-2 Wisconsin: beat MN, PU; lost to IL, IA
- 1-3 Minnesota: beat UW; lost to IL, PU, IA
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I know that at least @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) will like this:
Wisconsin has to win out (atUNL, vsMN).Since Iowa loses Floyd, they have to beat Nebraska on Black Friday.
I hate it!