CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 30, 2022, 11:17:02 AM
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Still starting in the simpler B1G-E:
Ohio State and Michigan are both 5-0 and obviously control their own destiny. The winner of their game can do no worse than 6-3 which means that Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan State are all mathematically eliminated as they each already have four losses.
Penn State and Maryland are still in the race mathematically but they have no practical chance as they would need BOTH tOSU and Michigan to suddenly implode.
B1G-W:
Illinois and Purdue control their own destiny but all teams are still mathematically in the race, they just need the Illini and Boilermakers to start racking up losses.
The major problem for the three-loss teams (MN, IA, UW, UNL) is that each of them already lost to 4-1 Illinois so they really need Bert to start losing.
The fighting Berts still host Purdue and visit Ann Arbor but even if they lose both of those one of the three-loss teams could only tie them at 6-3. In order to beat them, the Illini would also have to lose either at home to MSU or in Evanston.
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Illinois is gonna win it and Bert will be B1G COY.
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Illinois is gonna win it and Bert will be B1G COY.
A pretty safe assumption at this point.
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Let it be noted that "even year" Northwestern only needs Bert to lose once, before Rivalry Week. :098:
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Let it be noted that "even year" Northwestern only needs Bert to lose once, before Rivalry Week. :098:
Northwestern (1-4) needs a LOT more than that. They need Illinois (4-1) to lose at least twice, they need to start winning, and they need the two and three loss teams to lose.
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Northwestern (1-4) needs a LOT more than that. They need Illinois (4-1) to lose at least twice, they need to start winning, and they need the two and three loss teams to lose.
Oh yeah, I thought they had three losses for some reason.
Yeah, they're toast.
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It's scary to think about how different the West race would be if ILL backup QB Atrhur Sitkowski fumbles 1 second earlier, late in the Iowa game, on a play originally ruled a fumble that Iowa returned for a TD, only to be overruled correctly by replay, saying the QB was down before he fumbled.
If Iowa pulls out that close game against ILL, the West would be a free for all right now, with ILL, Pur, Iowa tied for first at 3-2, and Wisc, Minn, Neb all 1 game back at 2-3.
Oh well, the replay call was correct, ILL won the game, and ILL is now in firm control in the West.
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I'm grateful the correct call was made
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It's scary to think about how different the West race would be if ILL backup QB Atrhur Sitkowski fumbles 1 second earlier, late in the Iowa game, on a play originally ruled a fumble that Iowa returned for a TD, only to be overruled correctly by replay, saying the QB was down before he fumbled.
If Iowa pulls out that close game against ILL, the West would be a free for all right now, with ILL, Pur, Iowa tied for first at 3-2, and Wisc, Minn, Neb all 1 game back at 2-3.
Oh well, the replay call was correct, ILL won the game, and ILL is now in firm control in the West.
Or the Illinois apparent touchdown by Hightower against Indiana is called good and Illinois is likely 8-0
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Crazy things happen, but the BCS championship format is looking just about perfect this year between the Georgia-Tennessee winner and the UM-OSU winner
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Or the Illinois apparent touchdown by Hightower against Indiana is called good and Illinois is likely 8-0
Yes, usually these things do have a tendency to balance themselves out over time.
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Yup, I totally agree with Medina's analysis. I have been going through different scenarios in the West and ILL really does have the upper hand in most tie breakers because they have already beat Wisc, Minn, Neb, and Iowa. It's only divisional games left are Purdue and NW. So if Illinois finishes at least 6-3, the only tiebeakers it could lose is a 2-way with Purdue, or a 3-way tie at 6-3 where ILL loses to both Purdue and NW.
For example, let's look at the unlikely scenerio where Iowa were to win out to finish in a 3-way tie with ILL and Purdue at 6-3. That means Iowa beat Purdue, Purdue beat ILL and ILL has already beat Iowa. Now if ILL's 3rd loss is to MSU or Mich, ILL wins the tiebreaker due to its 5-1 division record and H2H win over Iowa. But if ILL's 3rd loss is to NW, then Iowa wins the tiebreaker because Iowa would have a 5-1 division record compared to ILL and Purdue at 4-2. Purdue has the H2H win over ILL, and Iowa has the H2H win over Purdue.
Of course, ILL could just collapse and finish 5-4 by losing to Mich, Purdue, and MSU or NW. That opens the door for one of the teams at 2-3 to win out and win the division. But that would also require Purdue to lose twice in order for Minn and Neb to win.
Otherwise ILL can basically wrap it all up by beating Purdue.
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Clinching scenarios and mathematical eliminations:
In the East:
Ohio State and Michigan are both heavily favored this weekend and if they both win that would mathematically eliminate Penn State.
The reason is that tOSU and M would both be 6-0 so the winner of THE GAME could do no worse than 7-2. Penn State could match that, but they would lose the tiebreaker because they lost to both.
Rutgers, Indiana, and Michigan State are all mathematically eliminated already and Maryland will be eliminated this weekend if they lose and both tOSU and M win.
Short version:
If the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Badgers all win, the B1G-E will be down to just tOSU/M.
In the West:
Illinois can clinch by winning their next two (home games against MSU and PU). If the Illini lose one or both then it gets interesting.
After these two home games the Illini finish with two road trips. The finale is at Northwestern so they should win that but before the in-state trip to Evanston they have to visit Ann Arbor. The Illini will obviously be a substantial underdog to Michigan but it is the week before Michigan plays Ohio State so there is some chance they could catch the Wolverines looking ahead.
What about Purdue's chances? If they win out they are in, simple as that.
If they lose to Illinois then the only thing that would prevent Illinois from going to Indy would be if the Illini fell apart and lost their other three remaining games (vs MSU, atM, atNU).
Where it gets tricky is if Purdue beats Illinois but loses one of their other three (vsIA, vsNU, atIU).
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I think Illinois beats Michigan State and Purdue to clinch, but then they limp into Indy after Michigan beats them twice; administering such an atomic wedgie that it causes Bert to barf up the Northwestern game a week later.
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Any West team who doesn't win the division before they go away has to be kicked out of the conference, if I read the bylaws correctly
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Any West team who doesn't win the division before they go away has to be kicked out of the conference, if I read the bylaws correctly
I guess ILL, Purdue, Minn, Neb are on the clock.
or does Minn get credit for a 1st place tie in 2019? They did ger a trophy.
And does Nebraska get credit for winning the Legends division, the unofficial West division before there was an official West division. So at least you can say Nebraska has won A division title.
If so, ILL and Purdue really are the only teams left in the West to never win a division. It may be fitting that they end up tied for first this year, then everybody will have a trophy.
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And does Nebraska get credit for winning the Legends division, the unofficial West division before there was an official West division. So at least you can say Nebraska has won A division title.
yes, Bo won something. not much of anything, but something