CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 16, 2022, 05:06:36 PM
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Link to last week's ranking (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-2-30208/).
Votes through @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) , 14 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/8LqHWdQ.png)
Drop the high and low for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/aSuZ2eo.png)
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan State
6. Wisconsin
7. Maryland
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Indiana
11. Illinois
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska
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1. OSU
2. UM
3. PSU
4. MN
5. UW
6. MSU
7. UMD
8. RU
9. IA
10. PU
11. IU
12. UI
13. NU
14. UNL
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I seem to recall last year Minn beating Col and PSU beating Auburn and both looking pretty good. How did that work out last year? My point is it's still early. There is still hope for all teams. Well except for Neb, their season is pretty much over.
1. OSU
2. MICH
3. Minn
4. PSU
Hmmm. ..
5. Wisc
6. MSU
7. Purdue
8. MD
9. Rut
10. Ind
11. ILL
12. Iowa
13. NW
14. Neb
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I seem to recall last year Minn beating Col and PSU beating Auburn and both looking pretty good. How did that work out last year? My point is it's still early. There is still hope for all teams. Well except for Neb, their season is pretty much over.
1. OSU
2. MICH
3. Minn
4. PSU
Hmmm. ..
5. Wisc
6. MSU
7. Purdue
8. MD
9. Rut
10. Ind
11. ILL
12. Iowa
13. NW
14. Neb
I mean....the Gophers ended 9-4 and probably dropped a game or two that they should have won.
1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Purdue
7. Michigan State
8. Indiana
9. Maryland
10. Illinois
11. Rutgers
12. Iowa
13. Nebraska
14. Northwestern
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1 Michigan
2 OSU
3 PSU
4 Minn
5 Wisconsin
6 MSU
7 Purdue - will never be discipline enough under Brohm
8 Maryland
9 Illinois
10 Indiana
11 Iowa
12 Rutgers
13 NW
14 Nebr
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I mean....the Gophers ended 9-4 and probably dropped a game or two that they should have won.
Sorry, I didn't mean to imply that Minn and PSU ended up being awful. They both were good teams in the end. You could even argue that Minn was actually the best team in the West. Too bad minn lost that game to Iowa where Minn dominated the stats. Otherwise Minn would have been the clear winner in the west. But that kind of was Iowa's story all last season. Maybe this will finally be Minn's year to win the west.
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1) Penn State - 2 impressive road wins. I know way more about them than any of the other top teams.
2) Michigan - Still don't know much, but doing what they are supposed to do.
3) Ohio State - Offense looking great, but defense is showing some cracks.
4) Minnesota - Same story as Michigan with less talent.
5) Michigan State - Tough opponent and showed some offense that was missing earlier.
6) Wisconsin - Easy win.
7) Maryland - Defense made big stops late.
8) Illinois - Just ahead of Iowa because they have a little more offense.
9) Iowa - I think they can ride that defense to another decent year.
10) Purdue - Yes they are a talented bunch, but this is twice that they have blown close games. Doesn't bode well for the rest of the year.
11) Indiana - Got the win, but did not impress.
12) Rutgers - Worst 3-0 team in the Power 5?
13) Northwestern - Come on man
14) Nebraska - I know Oklahoma is good, but they were lifeless.
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Purdue is so close to being so good!
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- Penn State
- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Michigan State
- Wisconsin
- Maryland
- Illinois
- Iowa
- Purdue
- Rutgers
- Indiana
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Minnesota
- Wisconsin
- Maryland
- Iowa
- Michigan State
- Purdue
- Indiana
- Rutgers
- Illinois
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
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1. Michigan
2. Ohio State
3. Penn State
4. Minnesota
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan State
7. Maryland
8. Purdue
9. Indiana
10. Illinois
11. Iowa
12. Rutgers
13. Northwestern
14. Nebraska
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1) tOSU scoring,DBs need some tweeking
2)Skunk Weasels with another solid outing
3) Lions balanced running/throwing the ball almost 500 yds in SEC land
4)Goophs,ran & threw for 3 tds apiece but Buffs have been getting throttled
5)Terps - balance on offense and moving to 3-0
6)UW
7)MSU
8)RU - shaky 3-0 as they edged Temple on a defensive score
9)Hoosiers 3-0
10) Illini
11)Iowa
12)Purdue
13)Wildcats
14) UNL
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- Ohio State - Offense coming into form, Defense still figuring things out. Keeping them here until someone pulls ahead of them.
- Michigan - Looking good against cupcakes, still really don't know anything.
- Penn State - I'm tempted to move them up. Probably the best win in the Conference this year so far.
- Minnesota - They seem to all be rowing the boat in the same direction and looking like the best team in the West so far.
- Wisconsin - Will get good test this Sat. We'll see how they rate then.
- Michigan State - That pass defense is looking bad. Mel needs to get this figured out.
- Maryland - Beat a decent SMU team.
- Purdue - Did their best Cleveland Browns impersonation.
- Illinois - Bye week.
- Iowa - Didn't see any of the game. Ranking based on what I've see so far.
- Indiana - OT win vs WKU. Looks like they may be challenging Rutgers for the bottom of the East this year.
- Rutgers - Pulled one out against Temple with zero offensive touchdowns.
- Northwestern - Loosing the Southern Ill is bad.
- Nebraska - Things were looking good for the first few minutes, and then they reverted back to the team we've seen so far.
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- Penn State (3,4,4), to be honest I'm not 100% convinced that the Nittany Lions are the best team but they have a FAR better resume so far than any of the other contenders.
- Ohio State (1,1,1), B1G Champions don't generally give up 21 points to MAC teams.
- Michigan (2,2,2), Michigan has done nothing to cause themselves to move down but they've also done nothing to solidify their lofty ranking either because their opponents have been hot garbage. This isn't about them moving down it is about PSU moving up.
- Minnesota (5,6,8), much like the team above them, the Gophers' opponents thus far have been atrocious.
- Wisconsin (6,3,3), nice bounce-back.
- Michigan State (4,5,5), I'm not surprised by the loss but the margin is shocking. Note, the final, 11 point margin isn't too bad but MSU scored two late TD's when the game was no longer in doubt. It had been 39-14.
- Purdue (7,7,7), this team is starting to look like last year's Nebraska squad. They have a blowout win and two losses by a combined seven points. They are two plays from being #4 on this list yet here they are.
- Maryland (8,9,12), is this just another September Maryland?
- Rutgers (9,10,13), road wins are nice but nearly losing to Temple is not good.
- Illinois (10,13,9), off week.
- Iowa (11,8,6), although it was only against Nevada, the fact that Iowa actually moved the ball a little bit and scored points could be a good sign for the Hawkeyes going forward.
- Indiana (12,12,10), was the Illinois win a fluke?
- Northwestern (13,11,11), in a normal year this version of the Wildcats would easily be dead last in the league but this isn't a normal year, we have . . .
- Nebraska (14,14,14), I didn't expect them to come out and beat the Sooners or even really hang with them but it would have been nice if they had looked something like a competent football team.
FWIW, here are the 12 opponents of my top-4 teams ranked by what I think is probably the strength of the win in question (or at least something close to it):
- 2-1 Auburn, beaten 41-12 by Penn State ON THE ROAD
- 1-2 Purdue, beaten 35-31 by Penn State ON THE ROAD
- 1-2 Notre Dame, beaten 21-10 by Ohio State
- 1-2 Ohio, beaten 46-10 by Penn State
- 1-3 UCONN, beaten 59-0 by Michigan (UCONN's win was over FCS Cent CN)
- 0-3 Colorado State, beaten 51-7 by Michigan
- 0-3 Colorado, beaten 49-7 by Minnesota
- 2-1 Toledo, beaten 77-21 by Ohio State (one of UT's wins was FCS over LIU)
- 0-4 NMST, beaten 38-0 by Minnesota (Wisconsin beat them 66-7)
- 0-3 Western Illinois, beaten 62-10 by Minnesota
- 1-2 ArSt, beaten 45-12 by Ohio State (the lone win was FCS over Grambling)
- 1-3 Hawaii, beaten 56-10 by Michigan (the win was over FCS Dequesne)
Note that while Penn State has not one but TWO quality road wins over P5 opponents the Buckeyes, Wolverines, and Gophers have played a combined one P5 (assuming you count ND) opponent and exactly zero road games. Also the nine opponents of tOSU, M, and MN have only won two games against FBS opponents combined (Toledo's win over UMASS and Notre Dame's over UC-Berkley). Ohio State's opponents haven't been great but they've been vastly better than Michigan's and Minnesota's. Penn State's are much better than Ohio State's.
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I can't see how you could put Toledo that low. You could argue that Ohio belongs ahead of them and put them 5th, but those other teams are horrible teams.
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I can't see how you could put Toledo that low. You could argue that Ohio belongs ahead of them and put them 5th, but those other teams are horrible teams.
It isn't a ranking of the teams, it us a ranking of the wins. I have tOSU's win over Toledo that low because of the excessive points allowed.
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SP+ Rankings of these teams:
18) Notre Dame
34) Auburn
36) Purdue
65) Toledo
112) Colorado
113) Arkansas State
120) Colorado State
121) Ohio U
126) UConn
128) Hawaii
130) New Mexico State
N/A) Western Illinois
Other than Ohio U being that low, teams are about where I expected. I thought the Bobcats would be higher with a decent win over FAU, but they did get annihilated by Iowa State this past weekend.
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1) Ohio State - no reason to move them imo
2) Michigan - ditto
3) Penn State - they move up to #3 with that drubbing of Auburn
4) Minnesota - who else could go here?
5) Wisconsin - they'll rebound and get it together...but playing OSU this week...tough out
6) MSU - get knocked down 3 spots with that loss...think they'll rebound but Pass D and OL might hold them back
7) Maryland - who else would realistically go here?
8) Iowa - they have nice D and ST's....but man that O is awful
9) Illinois
10) Purdue
11) Rutgers
12) Indiana
13) Northwestern
14) Nebraska
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It isn't a ranking of the teams, it us a ranking of the wins. I have tOSU's win over Toledo that low because of the excessive points allowed.
Another interesting take.
They won by 56 points. Their walk-ons were scoring. They started and played this game without TWO of their starting safeties. Their starting Corner left the game with an injury in the first quarter.
Toledo scored late on a crazy scramble and an arm punt Hail Mary.
Other than their Lamar Jackson look alike who had several good scrambles- Toledo couldn’t run the ball at all.
Ohio State scored 10 touchdowns- against what might be the best defense in the Mac.
I have high confidence Toledo would Murder all three of Michigans opponents, plus the team Wisconsin just beat.
I think your expectations are downright unrealistic.
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Minnesota
- Rutgers
- Wisconsin
- Indiana
- Michigan State
- Iowa
- Illinois
- Purdue
- Northwestern
- Nebraska
- Maryland
Still trying to sort out the bottom 8 particularly. Probably should have checked out the computer rankings before ranking them.
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Another interesting take.
They won by 56 points. Their walk-ons were scoring. They started and played this game without TWO of their starting safeties. Their starting Corner left the game with an injury in the first quarter.
Toledo scored late on a crazy scramble and an arm punt Hail Mary.
Other than their Lamar Jackson look alike who had several good scrambles- Toledo couldn’t run the ball at all.
Ohio State scored 10 touchdowns- against what might be the best defense in the Mac.
I have high confidence Toledo would Murder all three of Michigans opponents, plus the team Wisconsin just beat.
I think your expectations are downright unrealistic.
I don't disagree with anything you said about the tOSU offense. Scoring 77 points would be impressive against air so the offense looked fine.
The 21 points given up is, to me, tentatively concerning. Like I said above, B1G Champions don't generally give up 21 to MAC teams. Past B1G Champion allowances to MAC opponents:
- 2021 Michigan gave up 14 to WMU
- 2021 Michigan gave up 10 to NoIll
- 2019 tOSU gave up 5 to Miami
- 2016 PSU gave up 13 to Kent
- 2015 MSU gave up 10 to CMU
- 2015 MSU gave up 24 to WMU
- 2014 tOSU shutout Kent
- 2013 MSU gave up 13 to WMU
- 2011 UW gave up 7 to NoIll
So in the entire B1GCG era only one B1G Champion gave up more than 14 to a MAC team. I realize that there were injuries and yeah, that late pass was an arm punt but all those prior B1G Champions listed above had various issues as well and only one of them failed to keep their MAC opponent at 14 or below.
I'm not saying that we (as tOSU fans) should panic, just that giving up 21 to a MAC team is at least potentially a cause for concern.
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I don't disagree with anything you said about the tOSU offense. Scoring 77 points would be impressive against air so the offense looked fine.
The 21 points given up is, to me, tentatively concerning. Like I said above, B1G Champions don't generally give up 21 to MAC teams. Past B1G Champion allowances to MAC opponents:
- 2021 Michigan gave up 14 to WMU
- 2021 Michigan gave up 10 to NoIll
- 2019 tOSU gave up 5 to Miami
- 2016 PSU gave up 13 to Kent
- 2015 MSU gave up 10 to CMU
- 2015 MSU gave up 24 to WMU
- 2014 tOSU shutout Kent
- 2013 MSU gave up 13 to WMU
- 2011 UW gave up 7 to NoIll
So in the entire B1GCG era only one B1G Champion gave up more than 14 to a MAC team. I realize that there were injuries and yeah, that late pass was an arm punt but all those prior B1G Champions listed above had various issues as well and only one of them failed to keep their MAC opponent at 14 or below.
I'm not saying that we (as tOSU fans) should panic, just that giving up 21 to a MAC team is at least potentially a cause for concern.
Fair points.
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Ok, I'm curious. This is at least the second week in a row that you have ranked Maryland dead last in the league and WAY behind where anyone else had them.
Last week you had the Terps #14 and their next lowest vote was #11 by @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) . This week you have them #14 and their next lowest ranking is #9 by @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) .
Why do you have such a dramatically lower opinion of the Terps than the rest of us?
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results posted.
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Ok, I'm curious. This is at least the second week in a row that you have ranked Maryland dead last in the league and WAY behind where anyone else had them.
Last week you had the Terps #14 and their next lowest vote was #11 by @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) . This week you have them #14 and their next lowest ranking is #9 by @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) .
Why do you have such a dramatically lower opinion of the Terps than the rest of us?
I was about to post something similar. Maybe we can just file it under "September Maryland" ?
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Last week in parentheses
- PENN STATE (3) - two Power 5 road wins, when the other two teams in contention haven't even played a road game
- MICHIGAN (1) - see #1
- OHIO STATE (2) - see #1
- MINNESOTA (5) - Colorado is most certainly the worst Power 5 team, but Minnesota still shut them down
- MICHIGAN STATE (4) - Thorne finally looked like 2021...unfortunately so did the OL and DB
- WISCONSIN (7) - much needed bounceback
- IOWA (8) - did anyone see the ending?
- MARYLAND (9) - 3-0 is very Maryland
- PURDUE (6) - lack of a running game, and bad penalties continue to plague the Brohm era
- INDIANA (10) - I guess?
- ILLINOIS (11) - bye week
- RUTGERS (12) - the fact that it was even close against Temple is concerning
- NORTHWESTERN (13) - probably should drop to #14, but they have a H2H win, and it's not like Nebraska did anything to move up
- NEBRASKA (14) - fun first two drives
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- IOWA (8) - did anyone see the ending?
I made it to about 1AM ET before I gave up on them. It finished around 2:30AM ET.
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So in the entire B1GCG era only one B1G Champion gave up more than 14 to a MAC team. I realize that there were injuries and yeah, that late pass was an arm punt but all those prior B1G Champions listed above had various issues as well and only one of them failed to keep their MAC opponent at 14 or below.
I'm not saying that we (as tOSU fans) should panic, just that giving up 21 to a MAC team is at least potentially a cause for concern.
I think James Franklin will stop scheduling MAC teams now. Not worth the risk of forfeiting a Big Ten title opportunity in September.
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I think James Franklin will stop scheduling MAC teams now. Not worth the risk of forfeiting a Big Ten title opportunity in September.
Because he's going to give up 17?
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Haha yep. We'll be down a few contenders in the East.
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/the-situational/2022/09/133108/the-situational-forbidden-kingdom
Really great writer an interesting comparison of teams so far
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https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/the-situational/2022/09/133108/the-situational-forbidden-kingdom
Really great writer an interesting comparison of teams so far
Thanks for sharing, I always enjoy Ramzy.
His schedule analysis is interesting here.
Vis-a-vis the top spots in the B1G, here are tOSU's and M's opponents with Sagrin rankings and scores (I added in PSU):
- 23 Notre Dame, beaten 21-10 by tOSU at home
- 37 Purdue, beaten 35-31 by PSU on the road
- 61 Auburn, beaten 41-12 by PSU on the road
- 84 Toledo, beaten 77-21 by tOSU at home
- 105 ArSt, beaten 45-12 by tOSU at home
- 118 OhioU, beaten 46-10 by PSU at home
- 137 CoSt, beaten 51-7 by M at home
- 162 Hawaii, beaten 56-10 by M at home
- 173 UCONN, beaten 59-0 by M at hom
This just makes it REALLY hard to compare tOSU, PSU, and M.
- Michigan has gaudy lopsided winning scores but at home against some of the worst teams in the sport.
- Ohio State has somewhat less gaudy and less lopsided scores against somewhat better opponents.
- PSU had even less gaudy and less lopsided scores but against generally better opponents and with two out of three on the road.
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Last week in parentheses
FWIW:
I added your vote. It didn't change much. The main changes were:
- This broke the Iowa/Illinois tie in favor of Iowa, and
- This moved the top-3 closer together because your vote was inverse of the preexisting averages.
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Composite computer rankings (50 rankings - last week in parenthesis)
- Georgia (1)
- Alabama (2)
- OHIO STATE (3)
- MICHIGAN (4)
- Oklahoma (7)
- PENN STATE (10)
- Tennessee (8)
- Clemson (5)
- Ole Miss (16)
- Oklahoma State (6)
- Kentucky (11)
- NC State (23)
- Arkansas (9)
- Iowa State (21)
- Texas (19)
- Utah (15)
- USC (-)
- Oregon (-)
- Baylor (14)
- Cincinnati (18)
- Wake Forest (22)
- MINNESOTA (24)
- Pittsburgh (-)
- MICHIGAN STATE (12)
- Oregon State (-)
- 28. Wisconsin (30)
- 36. Iowa (41)
- 38. Maryland (51)
- 39. Purdue (29)
- 42. Illinois (52)
- 60. Indiana (72)
- 77. Rutgers (75)
- 92. Nebraska (79)
- 107. Northwestern (88)
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Composite computer rankings (50 rankings - last week in parenthesis)
Our board rankings (left) and composite (right):
- tOSU 1
- M 2
- PSU 3
- MSU 5
- MN 4
- PU 9
- UMD 8
- UW 6
- RU 12
- Iowa 7
- IL 10
- IU 11
- NU 14
- UNL 13
We are +/-1 on all but:
- Purdue: We have them three spots higher than the computers.
- Rutgers: We have them three spots higher.
- Wisconsin: We have them two spots lower.
- Iowa: We have them three spots lower.
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Ok, I'm curious. This is at least the second week in a row that you have ranked Maryland dead last in the league and WAY behind where anyone else had them.
Last week you had the Terps #14 and their next lowest vote was #11 by @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) . This week you have them #14 and their next lowest ranking is #9 by @RestingB!tchFace (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1756) .
Why do you have such a dramatically lower opinion of the Terps than the rest of us?
Maryland has been reliably one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Maryland is 3-0 to its credit. To its discredit it has played Buffalo (Massey ranked 124), Charlotte (Massey ranked 122), and SMU (Massey ranked 61).
I have no confidence that SMU should be ranked #61. SMU played #119 N. Texas, and #297 Lamar, and did really well against bad opponents, but that doesn't put SMU in the middle rankings of FBS football.
Maybe I am wrong, but Rutgers and Indiana look better in the East, and I project victories will be hard for Maryland to find in coming weeks. If Maryland defeats Michigan this weekend, my mind will be changed. I am not swayed by Maryland's nonconference wins.
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Maryland has been reliably one of the worst teams in the Big Ten. Maryland is 3-0 to its credit. To its discredit it has played Buffalo (Massey ranked 124), Charlotte (Massey ranked 122), and SMU (Massey ranked 61).
I have no confidence that SMU should be ranked #61. SMU played #119 N. Texas, and #297 Lamar, and did really well against bad opponents, but that doesn't put SMU in the middle rankings of FBS football.
Maybe I am wrong, but Rutgers and Indiana look better in the East, and I project victories will be hard for Maryland to find in coming weeks. If Maryland defeats Michigan this weekend, my mind will be changed. I am not swayed by Maryland's nonconference wins.
Ok, fair enough.
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What makes you think Rutgers looks good? Their QB play is beyond atrocious. As in worse than Iowa. They have a good defense that has allowed them to squeak out wins over bad Boston College and Temple teams, but I really don't know if they'll win another game.
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They have road wins, which are never easy. I'll credit them for that, for sure.
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don't really need to beat Michigan to garner some respect, just give them a game
IMO
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don't really need to beat Michigan to garner some respect, just give them a game
IMO
Agreed for sure. I base my rankings each week on the previous week's rankings with an upgrade or downgrade possible based on performing above or below expectations. We collectively have Michigan #2 and Maryland #7.
I personally have Michigan #3 and Maryland #8. Vegas says Maryland +17 and I think it will likely be a little more than that so if Michigan wins by around 17-30 then that will not change my opinion of either team. If the final is outside of roughly that range then I'll need to adjust my view of one or both of the teams.
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What makes you think Rutgers looks good? Their QB play is beyond atrocious. As in worse than Iowa. They have a good defense that has allowed them to squeak out wins over bad Boston College and Temple teams, but I really don't know if they'll win another game.
Rutgers QB play is bad but no way is it worse than Iowa's. Iowa's QB coach is a former offensive lineman, and he has had no success in his career as an offensive coordinator, and less than no success this year as QB coach. There is no evidence success for Iowa QB play is nearing. QB play at Rutgers and Iowa is in equipoise -- a word I disdain -- but it is the word that applies here.
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Rutgers QB play is bad but no way is it worse than Iowa's. Iowa's QB coach is a former offensive lineman, and he has had no success in his career as an offensive coordinator, and less than no success this year as QB coach. There is no evidence success for Iowa QB play is nearing. QB play at Rutgers and Iowa is in equipoise -- a word I disdain -- but it is the word that applies here.
Rutgers coaches are actually putting their QB in spots to succeed, and he isn't. Everything Spencer Petras is doing is in spite of his coaching
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Noah Vedral from Wahoo, NE didn't have too many stars attached from the recruiting services
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When Vedral is back, that would be a big boost to Rutgers. But what they have now at QB is not working.