CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on June 01, 2022, 04:58:57 PM
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2022 will probably be the final year of divisions so here is the all-time divisional history:
(https://i.imgur.com/CR0BL4S.png)
Divisions started in 2011 with the addition of Nebraska and the much-maligned Legends and Leaders Divisions. It was an interesting year in the Leaders in that the Buckeyes had an off-year (3-5). Wisconsin and Penn State tied for the Leaders Division Championship with Wisconsin winning the H2H tiebreaker. Michigan State won the Legends Division outright by a game over the Wolverines but lost to Wisconsin in the inaugural B1GCG.
2012 was another odd year in the Leaders Division. Ohio State went undefeated and won the division outright by two games over Penn State but both the Buckeyes (tatoos) and the Nittany Lions (Sandusky) were barred from postseason play so the third place Badgers represented the Leaders Division in the second B1GCG. They faced Nebraska who won the Legends Division outright by a game over the Wolverines. Wisconsin was just .500 in the league and had lost to Nebraska in Lincoln early in the season but they annihilated the Cornhuskers in the second B1GCG, 70-31.
2013 was the final year of the Legends and Leaders and saw the Spartans and Buckeyes both go undefeated and win their respective divisions outright with the Spartans beating the Buckeyes in the final Legends/Leaders B1GCG.
In three B1GCG's the Leaders won two (Wisconsin in 2011 and 2012) while the Legends won one (MSU in 2013).
2014 was the first year with Rutgers and Maryland on board and the first year of the current B1G-E and B1G-W. Wisconsin won the West by two games over the Gophers and Cornhuskers. The Buckeyes won the East by a game over the Spartans and beat the Badgers in the B1GCG then went on to win the NC.
2015 saw the Hawkeyes win the West by two games over Northwestern and Wisconsin. The Spartans and Buckeyes tied for the B1G-E and MSU won the H2H tiebreaker and went on to beat the previously undefeated Hawkeyes in the B1GCG.
2016 saw the Buckeyes lose yet another "and one" tiebreaker, this time to PSU in the East while Wisconsin won the West by a game over the Hawkeyes and Cornhuskers. Penn State won the CG.
2017 was the first of four-straight B1GCG appearances and wins for the Buckeyes. In 2017 they won the East by a game over PSU and MSU and beat Wisconsin in the CG. The Badgers won the West by two games over the Wildcats.
2018 was the first time that Ohio State managed to win a divisional tie with a H2H win putting the Buckeyes in the CG ahead of the similarly 8-1 Wolverines. Northwestern won the West by three games over Wisconsin, Purdue, and Iowa and lost to Ohio State in the CG.
2019 turned out to be the last year before the pandemic but we didn't know that at the time. Ohio State won the East by two games over PSU while Wisconsin and Minnesota tied in the West with Wisconsin winning the H2H tiebreaker and losing to Ohio State in the CG.
2020 was a strange, pandemic-shortened year in which the 5-0 Buckeyes won the East and the 6-1 Wildcats won the West. Teams played anywhere between five (tOSU, UMD) and nine (PSU, RU) games and the Buckeyes beat the Wildcats in the CG.
2021, as it turns out, was the penultimate year of divisions. Iowa won the West by a game over Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Purdue. Ohio State and Michigan tied in the East with the Wolverines winning the H2H tiebreaker and defeating the Hawkeyes in the B1GCG.
Total division Championships (includes ties):
- 10 Ohio State
- 5 Wisconsin
- 3 Michigan State
- 2 Iowa
- 2 Michigan
- 2 Northwestern
- 2 Penn State
- 1 each: Minnesota, Nebraska
- 0 Purdue, Illinois, Indiana, Maryland, Rutgers
B1GCG Appearances:
- 6 Ohio State
- 6 Wisconsin
- 3 Michigan State
- 2 Iowa
- 2 Northwestern
- 1 Penn State
- 1 Nebraska
B1GCG Wins:
- 5 Ohio State
- 2 Michigan State
- 2 Wisconsin
- 1 Michigan
- 1 Penn State
Ohio State has won 10 straight divisional championships (includes ties) including winning at least a share of the B1G-E in all eight years that the B1G-E has existed (2014-2021).
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B1GCG Wins:
- 5 Ohio State
- 2 Michigan State
- 2 Wisconsin
- 1 Michigan
- 1 Penn State
As much as we all complained about the Leaders and Legends, this really provides a lot of justification for them. Nine of the 11 B1GCG's have been won by a team in the current B1G-E but if you went back to Leaders/Legends:
Legends:
- 2 Michigan State
- 1 Michigan
- 3 Total
Leaders:
- 5 Ohio State
- 2 Wisconsin
- 1 Penn State
- 8 Total
That isn't MUCH better but it is better. The problem, of course, is that Ohio State has simply been on a tear of late. The Buckeyes have won almost half of the B1GCG's (5 of 11) and that is pretty difficult to counter-balance. So perhaps a more fair comparison is CG's NOT won by Ohio State:
Members of the current B1G-E:
- 2 Michigan State
- 1 Michigan
- 1 Penn State
- 4 Total
Members of the current B1G-W:
So even after excluding Ohio State the rest of the B1G-E still has a 2:1 advantage over the entire B1G-W in B1GCG's. Comparatively the Legends and Leaders excluding tOSU, Legends:
- 2 Michigan State
- 1 Michigan
- 3 Total
Leaders:
- 2 Wisconsin
- 1 Penn State
- 3 Total
That appears to be a much better balance than the current E/W formulation.
As much as I hope this continues, I also would be remiss not to point out that while Ohio State has been performing well above their historical norm, the Wolverines have been performing well below theirs. Those two returning to closer to their historical norms does nothing to alleviate the E/W imbalance as it simply reallocates Championships among two B1G-E teams but under Legends/Leaders that would balance things out quite a bit. If Michigan had won one or two more (2 or 3 in 11 years) and Ohio State one or two fewer (3 or 4 in 11 years) then the balance between members of the Legends and members of the Leaders would be a reasonably balanced 4:7 or 5:6.
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I would just like to see UW beat OSU this decade.
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The "problem" with the B1G has been OSU's relative dominance in the conference which has been more dominant than Bama's, I think, or OU's.
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The "problem" with the B1G has been OSU's relative dominance in the conference which has been more dominant than Bama's, I think, or OU's.
Interesting comparison. It probably depends on exactly how you cherry-pick your years.
Well not exactly.
Ohio State and Bama have both been slightly but consistently more dominant in their leagues than Oklahoma has been in theirs over any timeframe up to about 14 years (2008 -2021). Prior to that Bama drops off quickly.
In the last 14 years (2008-2021) Bama has been exactly one game better against the SEC than the Buckeyes have been against the B1G at 102-12 or .895 for Bama vs the SEC compared to 101-13 or .886 for tOSU vs the B1G. For comparison, over that same timeframe Oklahoma is 98-24 or .803 vs the B12.
Looking at it another way, over the last 14 years (2008-2021) tOSU has one season with more than one conference loss, Bama has two, and Oklahoma has seven:
- OU went 7-2 in 2021
- OU went 6-2 in 2020
- Bama went 6-2 in 2019
- OU went 5-4 in 2014
- OU went 7-2 in 2013
- tOSU went 3-5 while OU went 6-3 in 2011
- Bama went 5-3 while OU went 6-2 in 2010
- OU went 5-3 in 2009
If you go back 20 years (2002-2021) then the Buckeyes are clearly the more dominant within their league with Bama third and Oklahoma roughly half-way between.
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I was thinking of conference championships since say 2014, before that not so much, OSU had 5, everyone else has 3.
If I counted right. But in that time period Bama has 6, so I'm wrong. The SEC E won one time since 2009, ouch. UGA is 1-5 since then in CGs.
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I was thinking of conference championships since say 2014, before that not so much, OSU had 5, everyone else has 3.
If I counted right. But in that time period Bama has 6, so I'm wrong. The SEC E won one time since 2009, ouch. UGA is 1-5 since then in CGs.
In another thread you mentioned that it takes some breaks to win an NC. I agree and, to a lesser extent, it takes some breaks to win a League Title as well. I used records rather than Championships because the breaks tend to balance out in overall games but not so much in winning things like tiebreakers.
Since the B1G adopted divisions in 2011 the Buckeyes are only one game worse overall in conference than the the Tide (80-10 vs 81-9) and if you leave out 2011 because it was a transitional off-year for the Buckeyes, since 2012 the Buckeyes are three games better in the B1G than the Tide are in the SEC (77-5 vs 74-8) but the Buckeyes have had generally bad luck in terms of losing to the wrong teams and being banned. From 2012-2021 Ohio State:
- Won the division outright in 2012 but was banned from postseason play.
- Won the division outright in 2013 but lost the CG.
- Won the division outright in 2014, won the CG.
- Tied for the division in 2015, lost the H2H tiebreaker to MSU.
- Tied for the division in 2016 but lost the H2H tiebreaker to PSU.
- Won the division outright in 2017, won the CG.
- Tied for the division in 2018, won the H2H tiebreaker over M.
- Won the division outright in 2019, won the CG.
- Won the division outright in 2020, won the CG.
- Tied for the division in 2021 but lost the H2H tiebreaker to M.
In those 10 years the Buckeyes won or tied for the Division Title every year but they missed one CG due to a postseason ban and another three due to losing the tiebreaker. Then they lost one of the six CG's that they did make it to. Bama has been "luckier" in that they've more often lost to mediocre teams that didn't keep them out of the CG:
- 2021 Bama lost to aTm but aTm finished 4-4.
- 2017 Bama lost to Auburn and that did keep them out of the CG but they won the NC anyway.
- 2015 Bama lost to Ole Miss but Ole Miss finished 6-2.
- 2014 Bama lost to Ole Miss but Ole Miss finished 5-3.
- 2013 Bama lost to Auburn and that did keep them out of the CG.
- 2012 Bama lost to aTm but aTm finished 6-2.
So Bama lost the divisional tiebreaker twice during a time that tOSU lost theirs three times and missed another CG due to a ban. I see this as a good/bad breaks issue. If Bama had lost to LSU in 2012 instead of aTm, for example, they'd have missed the CG due to losing the H2H tiebreaker to LSU but they lost to aTm instead and the tiebreaker didn't come into play because aTm finished a game back.
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Basically, my take is Bama and OSU have been dominant, film at 11.
The SEC has had more teams winning the NC than has the B1G, but as with last year, they didn't always win the SEC CG.
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Basically, my take is Bama and OSU have been dominant, film at 11.
The SEC has had more teams winning the NC than has the B1G, but as with last year, they didn't always win the SEC CG.
We mentioned Bama, tOSU, and OU but the one we left out is Clemson. Their transition under Dabo is truly remarkable. 2011 was Dabo's fourth year. The Tigers went 6-2 in the ACC, beat VaTech in the ACCCG, then got obliterated by WVU in the Orange Bowl. At the time, that was a very good season for them. In the 10 years from 2002 through 2011 they never lost less than two ACC games in a season and only accomplished that twice. Ie, 2011 and 2009 (6-2 ACC, 8-4 overall regular season, lost ACCCG, beat Kentucky in a minor bowl) were their two best seasons in that time. In the 10 years from 2012 to 2021 they never lost more than two league games in a season and only did that poorly twice (2014 and 2021). Since 2012 Clemson has been more dominant in the ACC than OU in the B12 and almost as dominant as tOSU in the B1G and Bama in the SEC. League records from 2012-2021:
- .939, 77-5 Ohio State in the B1G
- .902, 74-8, Bama in the SEC
- .889, 72-9, Clemson in the ACC
- .831, 74-15, OU in the B12
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Is the ACC still considered to be FBS?
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Is the ACC still considered to be FBS?
I know you were making a joke, but its a legitmate question where the ACC stands in the current P5 and FBS conference rankings. I believe in most people's minds, there has been clear separation between the SEC and the rest of the P5 that will only grow with Ok and Tex joining in 2025. The Big Ten is perceived as the 2nd best FBS conference, a perception based more on revenue than results, but it's expected that the results will catch up and eventually match the conference revenue.
Despite Clemson and FSU winning NCG's in recent history, the ACC does not seem to have the depth of the Big Ten or SEC, which will hurt more in the future as the revenue gap grows. The Big 12 is expected to drop from a clear #3 to a border-line P5 conference. But I expect the Big 12 to remain competitive as long as they don't lose anybody else. The PAC is limited by geography and seems content to compete with the teams they have now, so will have the same revenue problems as the ACC going forward.
So in summary, I would say the ACC, PAC, and B12 are still considered P5, but not part of the P2.