CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on April 07, 2022, 12:09:32 PM
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This is a continuation of my long-running debate with @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) in the general BB thread.
I'm posting this to continue that but, more importantly, to get rational views from non-Ohio State fans here. It is easy for us, as fans, to assume that the program we cheer for should be doing better. We all want them to do better. I'm trying to back away from that here and look at it rationally rather than fanatically. IMHO, what I present here is a rational view of the Ohio State Basketball Program. My fanatical view is that we should be Kentucky but rationally, I think we should be better.
My general view is that the starting point has to be a realistic assessment of your program's realistic capabilities. Ie, if I were Purdue's AD I'd be thrilled with a FB coach who averaged 8-10 wins a year and got me to a bowl more often than not. OTOH, if I were tOSU's or Michigan's AD and my FB coach did that I'd be looking for a new coach.
I think that realistic assessment starts with looking at the program's history with some but not too much recency bias. Ie, I don't think looking at what the program did 100 years ago is relevant.
In this case we are dealing with BB and that changed significantly with the expansion of the tournament to 64 teams in 1985 so for Ohio State, if I were the AD, I'd look back to 1985. Since then there have been 38 seasons and 37 NCAA tournaments (one less due to the COVID cancellation in 2020). In those 37/38 tournaments/seasons the Buckeyes have:
- Won or shared the regular season league title nine times (1991, 1992, 2000, 2002, 2006, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012). That works out to almost once every four years.
- Made the NCAA Tournament 22 times. That works out to a little better than every other year.
- Made the S16 eight times (1991, 1992, 1999, 2007, 2010, 2011, 2012, 2013). That works out to a little more than once every five years.
- Made the E8 five times (1992, 1999, 2007, 2012, 2013). That works out to almost once every seven years.
- Made the F4 three times (1999, 2007, 2012). That works out to roughly once every 12 years.
To me, that is at least roughly what the Ohio State Basketball program is capable of. The BB team should be:
- Winning the league once every four or five years.
- Making the tournament a lot more years than not.
- Making the S16 every four or five years.
- Making the E8 every seven or eight years.
- Making the F4 every ~10-15 years.
If the team is achieving at least at that level then all is well. If not, then it is time to start thinking about a change.
Holtmann has been coach for five years (four tournaments) and to his credit his teams have made the Tournament every year that there has been a tournament to make and they clearly would have made it in 2020 so it is fair to him to say that his teams have made the tournament every year. That much is good. The rest is bad. The rest obviously fails to live up to what this program has achieved in the past:
- Zero league titles in five seasons.
- Zero S16's in four tournaments.
- Zero E8's in four tournaments.
- Zero F4's in four tournaments.
At this point Holtmann isn't all that far behind the averages so I'm not saying that he should be fired RIGHT NOW, but he IS behind the averages so his seat should be warm. Improvement should be expected and demanded. If Ohio State were to win the league and go to the S16 next year, then Holtmann would be at:
- One league title in six seasons. This is close to the average of one every four.
- One S16 in five tournaments. This is close to the average of one every four to five years.
The problem is that if Ohio State fails again next year to win a league title of make it out of the first weekend of the tournament then Holtmann will fall even further behind:
- Zero league titles in six seasons. Based on the average he should be at roughly 1.5.
- Zero S16's in five tournaments. Based on the average he should be at >1.
Here is the Ohio State Basketball Program's history since the expansion broken down into what I thought fit as "eras":
(https://i.imgur.com/l9tQO0I.png)
When Ohio State has been good, they've been REALLY good. Ayers had a two-year stretch in the 1990-1991 and 1991-1992 seasons where they won:
- back-to-back league titles
- back-to-back S16's
- an E8 appearance.
Matta had a much more impressive peak of an eight-years stretch from 2005-2006 through 2012-13 during which the team won:
- Five league titles
- Five S16's
- Three E8's
- Two F4's
For the last nine years Ohio State's BB team has severely underachieved. They haven't won a league title since 2012 (ten seasons). The last time they went that long between league titles was the 19 seasons between titles in 1971 and 1991. They haven't been to a S16 or E8 since 2013 (eight tournaments). The last S16 gap that long was before there were 16 teams in the tournament and the last E8 drought that long was 1971-1992.
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Medina, I say this with all the respect in the world.
We've beaten this to death. Like beyond to death.
I can almost count OSU Sweet 16s and league titles in my sleep. I am thinking of driving to Columbus, kidnapping the AD's family and holding them until he fires the guy, just to avoid scrolling over the list again.
You think he hasn't done enough, based on some key markers, which have been presented in excellent manner many times. Others feel that if he keeps fielding good teams by other markers, eventually the success will come. What either group matters not at all, because all that matters is if the building stays semi-filled and the big money/admin feels fine with continual pretty good seasons, even if they've not hit the key marks up to this point. When that changes, it'll have changed
But none of this can change for 11 months. If we want to talk over the generalities, maybe we can move something forward. Or even if we want to discuss over-contentment with the little brother program. But the specifics that OSU has not matched its historic averages of second-weekend trips and league titles is deeply, deeply established.
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Never noticed how mediocre Holtmann is:
17/18: 25-9 15-3
18/19: 20-15 8-12
19/20: 21-10 11-9
20/21: 21-10 12-8
21/22: 20-12 12-8
As is pointed out, this is a topic beaten to death; I've read about it since Matta's sunset years.
One detail that probably doesn't mean much yet nevertheless stands out is the timing of Kentucky hiring Calipari around 2010. Calipari's recruiting presence in the region is pointed out as maybe steering away that additional 5-star/high 4-star talent that otherwise would've/might've signed with Thad Matta. Once the effect took place around 12/13, that's when Ohio State has since plateaued into an annually 2nd round team.
With all that said, I don't know a single IRL Ohio State fan (or Wisconsin fan, for that matter) who cares enough about their basketball program to watch the games or follow recruiting or discuss the team in the offseason. Holtmann's greatest staying power is that it's football, football, football in Columbus.
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We've beaten this to death. Like beyond to death.
As is pointed out, this is a topic beaten to death; I've read about it since Matta's sunset years.
Fair point.
Never noticed how mediocre Holtmann is:
17/18: 25-9 15-3
18/19: 20-15 8-12
19/20: 21-10 11-9
20/21: 21-10 12-8
21/22: 20-12 12-8
This is why. If Holtmann's teams were three games a year better, there would be no debate, fine job, keep him. If his teams were three games a year worse there would be no debate, fired.
Instead, Ohio State is in this limbo in between. The basketball team isn't good enough to be happy with the coach nor bad enough to obviously need to fire him.
I've read about it since Matta's sunset years.
One detail that probably doesn't mean much yet nevertheless stands out is the timing of Kentucky hiring Calipari around 2010. Calipari's recruiting presence in the region is pointed out as maybe steering away that additional 5-star/high 4-star talent that otherwise would've/might've signed with Thad Matta. Once the effect took place around 12/13, that's when Ohio State has since plateaued into an annually 2nd round team.
This is an interesting thought.
The way Matta's tenure ended really saddened me not just for my team/program but for him as an individual. His peak, the eight seasons from 2005-2006 through 2012-2013, was amazing. That stretch wasn't just good by Ohio State standards, it would have been good at a blueblood program. At that time I really thought we had our "Izzo", a guy who would win us an NC and coach in Columbus for 20+ years. Sadly, instead he just kinda faded.
I always thought that Matta faded more because he wasn't able to successfully transition from a hands-on, on-the-court type coach to more of a CEO type coach when age and health required that transition.
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At UGA he’d have a statue
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CFB is going to start soon,right?
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With all that said, I don't know a single IRL Ohio State fan (or Wisconsin fan, for that matter) who cares enough about their basketball program to watch the games or follow recruiting or discuss the team in the offseason. Holtmann's greatest staying power is that it's football, football, football in Columbus.
Yes, but you live on the Left Coast right?
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Fwiw, Gene Smith attended the women's ice hockey NCG over the Villanova loss in round 2. He might not be in as good a standing as you think.
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Fwiw, Gene Smith attended the women's ice hockey NCG over the Villanova loss in round 2. He might not be in as good a standing as you think.
I mean, that was something historic, and the ED is almost required to be there to accept the trophy.
There are not a ton of ways for the second round of the NCAA tournament to be historic, unless you are a program much worse than Ohio State.
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Was he at the synchronized swimming, pistol or dance team national championships?
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Was he at the synchronized swimming, pistol or dance team national championships?
I believe they've won those championships many times. This was the first hockey championship.
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So it is standard operating procedure to skip the biggest event on the collegiate sports calendar for an obscure sport championship because the AD has to be there in order to accept the trophy, but only if it happens to be the first championship that the school has won in that particular sport?
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So it is standard operating procedure to skip the biggest event on the collegiate sports calendar for an obscure sport championship because the AD has to be there in order to accept the trophy, but only if it happens to be the first championship that the school has won in that particular sport?
Also probably helps that hockey is an NCAA-run sport. It doesn’t appear the others are.
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Hockey is obscure? I would label those other sports you listed as obscure. I would certainly care more about a CBJ cup than a Cavs 2nd round playoff game for example.
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Hockey is obscure? I would label those other sports you listed as obscure. I would certainly care more about a CBJ cup than a Cavs 2nd round playoff game for example.
Women's Ice Hockey is extremely obscure. There's only 41 participating schools at the D1 level.
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I would put it this way, I don't know how much it actually says that the AD wasn't in town for a second-round loss. There's something a bit historic in the hockey game, just about none in basketball.
I could certainly see and AD ditching it to watch a second-round loss, but I can see enough logic in attending to not read a ton into the choice he made (plus, in a more sensitive world, just about no one is going to be like "That was a bad look, missing that 7 seed's second-round game").