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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: nuwildcat on August 14, 2017, 08:41:57 PM

Title: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: nuwildcat on August 14, 2017, 08:41:57 PM
So, Colin Cowherd pointed out that except for Alabama being favored over Florida State by 7 points, EVERY SEC team is the underdog in its early big non-conference games.


He went on to say that since even Vegas has no faith in them, the SEC is obviously not the best college football conference anymore.

I just looked @ the list of national champions and although the best team did indeed hail from the SEC from 2006-2012, they've claimed only one title in the last 4 years.
 
I can't speak to the ACC since I don't follow it but lately the B1G seems to always have at least 3 or 4 squads in the Top 10, which suggests we're pretty damn good and I'm guessing we should continue to be for the foreseeable future.


So, if u have any thoughts regarding this, please share


- that includes if u think the answer is 'None of the Above' (aka 'the Big 12', 'Pac-12' or 'Watcha talking about, Willis? the SEC is still the best conference')
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 14, 2017, 09:43:25 PM
The phrase, "only one title in the last 4 years" tells you something.  Best or not, the SEC still seems to be the measuring stick. 

P5 means there are 5 major conferences with many programs that have a realistic shot at the national championship.  So generically, each one should average a NC once every 5 years.  When you say ONLY one out of the last four...

I'm not sure why the ACC suddenly gets all this love.  FSU is FSU, but Clemson MAY have been Deshaun Watson & the Orange PeeWees.  We'll see.  What else does the ACC have?  Anyone betting the house on UNC without the #1 QB in the draft?
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: MichiFan87 on August 15, 2017, 02:16:28 AM
The ACC had the best collection of wins and the least bad losses of any conference last year, so I think it's fair to say they were the best overall, and not just because Clemson won the national title. They probably won't be as strong at the top this year but the middle and the bottom are still relatively strong compared to comparable teams in other leagues.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 07:07:38 AM
Can't put the Big Ten in the conversation after that post-season performance last year. Sorry.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2017, 08:29:01 AM
It's certainly not the Big Ten.

The SEC defenses aren't quite where they were at peak SEC, and so a little more is falling on the offenses, and I think that is exposing the lack of QB depth, particualrly as compared to the ACC.  I was trying to think of how many SEC starting QBs from last year I could name off the top of my head, and the only two I could were Hurts and Kelly.  I know Florida and LSU were starting former Purdue backup QBs at times.

Just naming the elite QBs the ACC had (has) Jackson, Trubisky, Watson, hell, even Nathan Peterman got drafted.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Temp430 on August 15, 2017, 09:11:03 AM
SEC and Big Ten > ACC and PAC >> Big 12
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 09:16:24 AM

SEC
ACC
Big Ten
Pac 12
Big 12
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2017, 10:32:20 AM
It's certainly not the Big Ten.

The SEC defenses aren't quite where they were at peak SEC, and so a little more is falling on the offenses, and I think that is exposing the lack of QB depth, particualrly as compared to the ACC.  I was trying to think of how many SEC starting QBs from last year I could name off the top of my head, and the only two I could were Hurts and Kelly.  I know Florida and LSU were starting former Purdue backup QBs at times.

Just naming the elite QBs the ACC had (has) Jackson, Trubisky, Watson, hell, even Nathan Peterman got drafted.

not being able to name them doesn't mean they are bad. sec actually has some good qb's this year.

allen (ark) and lock(mizz) both threw for 3400 and ~25 tds last year.
uga's eason is thought to be one of the better young qb's in nation and had a pretty good frosh campaign.
au has stidham, who's touted at pretty good and looked good in his short bigxii stint.
msu's fitzgerald is a dynamic running qb (1375 r/y and 16 r/td, plus 2400 p/y and 21 p/td). 
even ole miss has a good looking qb in patterson.
and uk, vandy, lsu, and usc all have returning starters, though none were spectacular.
tenn, uf and aTm are the only ones starting completely over i think. and uf has zaire, who was at least decent at nd as backup.

obviously not all of those will have amazing years. but i do think this year will feature a good crop of qb's from sec. the foundation is there for that, anyway.

having said that, all conf have ugly spots going into season. b1g had bad bowl season, acc lost a ridiculous amount and there's an unknown of who's up top, sec is looking like bama and the rest for last few seasons with no apparent change. bigxii just doesn't have it and pac doesn't look like it does either.

not convinced any conf will be able to differentiate from the rest.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 10:36:00 AM
UF has Zaire from ND. Kizer from ND is in the NFL now, with Cleveland. Poor kid. At least he has a great left tackle to protect him.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2017, 10:39:46 AM
UF has Zaire from ND. Kizer from ND is in the NFL now, with Cleveland. Poor kid. At least he has a great left tackle to protect him.

lol, i knew something didn't sound right. i'd rather be with uf than the browns.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2017, 10:47:02 AM
Big Ten


ACC


SEC


PAC


Big 12


The top 3 are very close
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2017, 11:28:31 AM
not being able to name them doesn't mean they are bad. sec actually has some good qb's this year.

allen (ark) and lock(mizz) both threw for 3400 and ~25 tds last year.
uga's eason is thought to be one of the better young qb's in nation and had a pretty good frosh campaign.
au has stidham, who's touted at pretty good and looked good in his short bigxii stint.
msu's fitzgerald is a dynamic running qb (1375 r/y and 16 r/td, plus 2400 p/y and 21 p/td). 
even ole miss has a good looking qb in patterson.
and uk, vandy, lsu, and usc all have returning starters, though none were spectacular.
tenn, uf and aTm are the only ones starting completely over i think. and uf has zaire, who was at least decent at nd as backup.

obviously not all of those will have amazing years. but i do think this year will feature a good crop of qb's from sec. the foundation is there for that, anyway.

having said that, all conf have ugly spots going into season. b1g had bad bowl season, acc lost a ridiculous amount and there's an unknown of who's up top, sec is looking like bama and the rest for last few seasons with no apparent change. bigxii just doesn't have it and pac doesn't look like it does either.

not convinced any conf will be able to differentiate from the rest.
No, bad it's not a bad place to start for anecdotal evidence.  I think the SEC is still tops, but I think it's taken a half step back due to the defenses not being quite where they were at the peak, and the QB play not picking up the slack.

1a. SEC
1b. ACC
3a. Pac 12
3b. Big Ten
5. Big XII
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2017, 11:46:46 AM
The phrase, "only one title in the last 4 years" tells you something.  Best or not, the SEC still seems to be the measuring stick. 

P5 means there are 5 major conferences with many programs that have a realistic shot at the national championship.  So generically, each one should average a NC once every 5 years.  When you say ONLY one out of the last four...

I think the knock on the SEC is that a few years back, it seemed like the entire SEC West, top to bottom, were contenders. Increasingly we've gotten to the point with the SEC that people think "well there's Alabama, and then there's everyone else". LSU firing Miles, TA&M looking maybe slightly above average, Ole Miss looking like they're going to implode... They don't have that top-to-bottom excellence that they used to. And in the East, you have a lot of teams with history, like UT, UF, UGA, but the East has still played second fiddle to the West for long enough that people don't yet trust them to carry water for the conference.

So the SEC is getting knocked this year because it's seen as Alabama and "everyone else".

Granted, other conferences have issues, which I'll cover in the next post here in minute...
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2017, 11:58:19 AM
Now, when you compare conferences, it's all a matter of what you're measuring. Are you measuring how many legit NC contenders are in the conference? Or are you measuring top-to-bottom strength?

I think if you're measuring legit NC contenders, as of today I think it's B1G vs ACC. The B1G could have legit NC contenders in OSU and PSU, UW could come out of the West, and Michigan is an unknown but clearly have elite talent and a damn good coach. The ACC has FSU who has legit talent and an elite coach, has the returning Heisman winner and a dynamic offense at Louisville, and while I think replacing Watson will move Clemson off this list, they have the returning NC. I think the only legit NC contenders in the other conferences are Alabama and USCw.

In short, I think you'd see two B1G or two ACC entrants into the CFP if neither Alabama nor USCw win their conference.

But that's not the question. The question is who is the best conference. If you start looking at top-to-bottom strength, I think the SEC recovers nicely. I think if you line up B1G or ACC against the SEC from teams 1-14 based on strength, those conferences will outdo the SEC in the top few rungs but the SEC will have a stronger middle and low-middle. And at the bottom of the conference, I'd say the worst in the SEC is equal if not better than the very bottom of the B1G or ACC.

So I think the B1G and ACC are a little more top-loaded than the SEC this year, but those three conferences are the cream of the crop when you look at them top-to-bottom. The PAC and the B12 can't really stand up whether you're measuring how top-loaded or how strong they are across the whole grouping.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 15, 2017, 12:13:22 PM
strange as it is for me to say it, i'm thinking the ACC is the most solid conference.

Louisville, FSU, Clemson > VT, NCST, Miami, Pitt, GT >> BC, UNCCH, Duke, Virginia >>> Syracuse, Wake

compared to

Bama > LSU, UF, UGA, ~ Auburn, Arky >> aTm, UTk, USCe, MissSt, OleMiss, UK >>> Mizzou, Vandy

It seems to me the ACC has more contenders at the top, while both have really solid middles.  It's my opinion that UL can play with anyone, and were just a few plays from the tourney last year- measurably, and against the other two sitting adjacent them.  don't forget Pitt beat Clemson.  VT second year under Fuentes is going to light it up offensively while still having a stout D.  NCST is a team folks better not look past.  They can play against anyone and come out with their heads held high.  Miami under Richt should be a sparking force this season. GT is just plain tricky to play.  The rest of them are softer than the 'rest' of the SEC by my estimation. 

PAC is solid this year.  They're at least equal to the SEC.

tOSU, PSU, Wiscy > UM, huskers, >> MichSt, Minni, Iowa, Maryland, >>> the rest...

The three headed lead off is significant- they are wicked tough up top and comparable to the ACC- but they lack depth after that, and opportunity to fall out drops in inter-league play, which makes them (and the SEC quite frankly) hard to get a bead on.  UM could move up fast, along with the huskers and any other one of the next four- but the upside isn't near as strong/likely as it is in the ACC or SEC by my reckonin'.  Seems like I'm knocking the B10, but.... i'm not.  Those three atop the league are really tough cookies.

 

12 has questions.  who i thought was solid this season underwent coaching changes and the offensive threat lacks defense (oSu)...

but that's how I'd stack them if I had to....  ACC > (PAC-SEC-B10) >> 12
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2017, 12:20:07 PM
when comparing relative conference strength I throw out the bottom 3 or 4 from 12-team conferences


all 5 conferences have 2 or 3 teams at the bottom that are not competitive


I don't see a need to try to sort which bad teams are better than other bad teams


I feel conference teams in the top 25 to 30 in the nation are the sign of the "best" conference
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2017, 01:30:33 PM
the sec/acc have a pretty good cross section of play in the first couple weeks, then again at end of season, so we might be able to get a good idea of those 2 conf vs each other.

sec vs acc

bama vs fsu - probably the top 2 teams from each conf, at least on paper preseason.
au vs clemson - again, on paper the #2 or 3 teams from each conf
tenn vs gtech - both picked 3rd in the weaker div, but both capable of winning div.
usc vs ncst - both picked 4th in div, neither expected to vie for ccg, but should be bowl eligible.
lsu vs cuse - only one that appears clearly lopsided in early season

at end of season, we have:
uf vs fsu - both potential div winners
uga vs gtech - slight favor for uga here, but not huge either
usc vs clemson - large favor for clemson
uk vs louisville - large favor for louisville, though uk won last year

that's a pretty solid slate of games for 2 conferences, and most appear to be fairly balanced for competitive games.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 15, 2017, 01:38:08 PM
when comparing relative conference strength I throw out the bottom 3 or 4 from 12-team conferences


all 5 conferences have 2 or 3 teams at the bottom that are not competitive


I don't see a need to try to sort which bad teams are better than other bad teams


I feel conference teams in the top 25 to 30 in the nation are the sign of the "best" conference

meh, yes and no. by no means do i think it should have a significant amount of weight put into it, but there can be a difference in the bad teams in each conf. so i don't think it should just be thrown out completely.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2017, 01:43:18 PM
tOSU, PSU, Wiscy > UM, huskers, >> MichSt, Minni, Iowa, Maryland, >>> the rest...

I'd say you're missing NW. I think UM is a solid #4 at this point based purely on talent but as you point out might need some time to come together. I think NW and the Huskers are both in that middle group between the top 3 and the group below the >>
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Kris61 on August 15, 2017, 01:51:22 PM
However you rank them the difference from 1 to 5 is measured in inches, not miles.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 02:20:16 PM
I'd say you're missing NW. I think UM is a solid #4 at this point based purely on talent but as you point out might need some time to come together. I think NW and the Huskers are both in that middle group between the top 3 and the group below the >>

Iowa and Minnie are also being sold short, in my opinion, but the national mantra is to piss all over the West. Purdue and Illinois need to get their shit together, but the bottom of the East is probably worse.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2017, 02:24:42 PM
meh, yes and no. by no means do i think it should have a significant amount of weight put into it, but there can be a difference in the bad teams in each conf. so i don't think it should just be thrown out completely.
Depends on why you are measuring it.  If you are trying to measure conference strength overall, I think it's meaningful.

If you are trying to measure CFP contenders against each other and looking at SOS, I don't really care that a 4-8 Mississippi State was better than a 3-9 Purdue.

For measuring the top, I'd prefer a modified SOS.  Like measuring only the 6 or 8 or whatever toughest games from each schedule.  Or maybe a weighted system where your toughest games weigh more.

Same complaint I've always had with the RPI, but why I've been furious that the Big Ten hasn't gamed it like the Big East teams did so well.  Don't play team #310.  Play #180.  You'll beat either one soundly, but one drags your SOS way down.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2017, 02:27:36 PM
Iowa and Minnie are also being sold short, in my opinion, but the national mantra is to piss all over the West. Purdue and Illinois need to get their shit together, but the bottom of the East is probably worse.
Probably because the computers have rated the East as tougher in all 3 seasons of this format, and they are 3-0 in the CCG.  And it's been 3 different teams East teams winning it over those three years, so you don't have what somebody else brought up earlier as the Alabama problem in the SEC.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 02:41:40 PM
Probably because the computers have rated the East as tougher in all 3 seasons of this format, and they are 3-0 in the CCG.  And it's been 3 different teams East teams winning it over those three years, so you don't have what somebody else brought up earlier as the Alabama problem in the SEC.
The last 2 CCG's have been very competitive and the balance of winning is near equal or slightly in favor of the West.

It's just that the East has 3 helmets.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 15, 2017, 02:49:27 PM
The last 2 CCG's have been very competitive and the balance of winning is near equal or slightly in favor of the West.

It's just that the East has 3 helmets.
That helps as far as attention goes, but the computer rankings don't know helmets.

Out of 9 divisions/conference (8 divisions + Big XII) Sagarin had...

2014
East: #5 of 9
West: #9 of 9

2015
East: #5 of 9
West: #8 of 9 (SEC East was actually last)

2016
East: #6 of 9
West: #7 of 9

Then you throw in 3-0 in the title game.

The West, thus far, has been as advertised.  I'd say where the helmet status helps is that people act like the Big Ten East has been some sort of gauntlet.  In fact the Big Ten East has been fairly mediocre, but the West has been bad.  The gap certainly isn't as portrayed, but not because the West hasn't been bad, is has been, but because the East hasn't been all that good, it's been only mediocre.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 03:32:03 PM
I'm not a Sagarin guy. Never have been. Never will be.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 15, 2017, 05:44:28 PM
Iowa and Minnie are also being sold short, in my opinion, but the national mantra is to piss all over the West. Purdue and Illinois need to get their shit together, but the bottom of the East is probably worse.

Illinois/Purdue is not really meaningfully better or worse than Indiana/Rutgers IMHO. I'm hoping Purdue changes that, but it's a hell of a rebuild necessary.

Iowa and Minnesota are decent mid-pack teams. I don't think it's selling them short to put them below Nebraska, which is the best recruiting program in the West over the last 5 years (https://www.sbnation.com/college-football-recruiting/2017/2/2/14483388/college-football-recruiting-rankings-2017-multiple-years). Even above Wisconsin. I think Nebraska has the talent to put it together any year (not sold on Riley), Wisconsin whether you figure it's talent or coaching or Barry, somehow is a threat every year, and Northwestern has been slowly trending up all of Fitz' tenure. Iowa can be VERY hit or miss. Minnesota as well.

I'm thinking the West this year comes down to one of the Big Reds or Big Purple. I don't trust Iowa ever, and don't trust Minnesota in year 1 of rowing crew.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 15, 2017, 06:53:44 PM

Just when you think Iowa is going into one of those tailspins, Kirk pulls one out his ass. And Minnie...


They won 9 games last season for the SECOND time in program history. I think they could at least do that again.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on August 15, 2017, 08:41:57 PM
SEC is still the best.


ACC, cute season; let's see it again.


Pac 12 sucks. Big XII is worse.


I'm not that high on the Big Ten. Wisconsin is always solid, but not a National power house. Michigan is a paper tiger. Penn St, see ACC. Nebraska? I dunno. For Northwestern to become a player, the Conference would have to be a pretty down. Iowa? Sparty? Meh, we'll see.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 15, 2017, 09:59:41 PM
I'm not a Sagarin guy. Never have been. Never will be.

Sagarin has it's place
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Kris61 on August 15, 2017, 11:46:36 PM
I'm not a Sagarin guy. Never have been. Never will be.

Me neither. Sagarin always has something off the wall that defies logic in his rankings.  In his final rankings last year WVU finished 28 and Kansas St finished 16.

WVU finished 10-3 to KSU's 9-4. Using his own SoS model WVU played the #15 schedule in the country and KSU played the 39th rated.  WVU beat them head to head.  So a better record against a tougher schedule and a H2H win equals out to finishing 12 spots below them?

I know no system is perfect but there have been too many times throughout the years that he has rolls out stuff that leaves me scratching my head.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2017, 07:13:19 AM
The eye test works pretty well.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 16, 2017, 07:39:36 AM
I'm not a Sagarin guy. Never have been. Never will be.
I agree, but it's as useful as any for a general guideline, and I knew he did a division strength rating.  I could make my own from the composite rankings but that feels time consuming.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 16, 2017, 09:38:37 AM
Me neither. Sagarin always has something off the wall that defies logic in his rankings.  In his final rankings last year WVU finished 28 and Kansas St finished 16.

WVU finished 10-3 to KSU's 9-4. Using his own SoS model WVU played the #15 schedule in the country and KSU played the 39th rated.  WVU beat them head to head.  So a better record against a tougher schedule and a H2H win equals out to finishing 12 spots below them?

I know no system is perfect but there have been too many times throughout the years that he has rolls out stuff that leaves me scratching my head.

i hate his sos system. unless i'm confusing him with someone else, he routinely will have an entire single conf in the top 15-20 sos, with 7-8 of the top10 from that conf. there is no way in hell a single conf has that many of the toughest sos. the only thing i can say is i don't see a conf bias. it's been the pac, the b1g, and the bigxii to accomplish that feat that i've seen, and i wouldn't be surprised if the sec and acc have done it as well.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: rolltidefan on August 16, 2017, 09:47:41 AM
i hate his sos system. unless i'm confusing him with someone else, he routinely will have an entire single conf in the top 15-20 sos, with 7-8 of the top10 from that conf. there is no way in hell a single conf has that many of the toughest sos. the only thing i can say is i don't see a conf bias. it's been the pac, the b1g, and the bigxii to accomplish that feat that i've seen, and i wouldn't be surprised if the sec and acc have done it as well.

just went and looked at last year, and it was apparently the sec and acc turn to share. 1-10 sos last year for sagarin, in order:

bama
fsu
clemson
ole miss
lsu
osu
au
cuse
pitt
north car

so at least is isn't bias, but damn does it pick a conf and stick to it each year.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Kris61 on August 16, 2017, 10:13:01 AM
The eye test works pretty well.

My problem with going strictly eye test is that we all trust our own opinion a little more than we should.  At what point should results be factored in? 

A couple of years ago I would have picked USC with its 3 or 4 losses to beat an undefeated Iowa team on a neutral field.  Eye test told me they were better, but should I have ranked them ahead of Iowa?   IMO, no way.  Eye test plus tangible results and hard numbers is the best way to go, imo.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: 847badgerfan on August 16, 2017, 10:48:31 AM

The USC/Iowa example...


In a power ranking, when you think one team is better than the other, then that team should be ranked above the other. That's how power rankings work. It's independent of record. It's about who would win, on a neutral site, TODAY.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 16, 2017, 11:08:54 AM
The USC/Iowa example...


In a power ranking, when you think one team is better than the other, then that team should be ranked above the other. That's how power rankings work. It's independent of record. It's about who would win, on a neutral site, TODAY.

True, but that gets conflated. That's part of the reason people get mad at the numbers rankings.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 16, 2017, 11:18:52 AM
Me neither. Sagarin always has something off the wall that defies logic in his rankings.  In his final rankings last year WVU finished 28 and Kansas St finished 16.

WVU finished 10-3 to KSU's 9-4. Using his own SoS model WVU played the #15 schedule in the country and KSU played the 39th rated.  WVU beat them head to head.  So a better record against a tougher schedule and a H2H win equals out to finishing 12 spots below them?

I know no system is perfect but there have been too many times throughout the years that he has rolls out stuff that leaves me scratching my head.

It looks like Sagarin put in a recency measure i.e. putting weight on the last 4-5ish games. KSU came down the stretch better, and a 1-point win in a home game doesn't carry much weight on a predictive front.

I don't particularly like the weighting from a philosophical standpoint, but some folks do. Seems eye-test-y.

My goal whenever I look at something weird in rankings is ask why. The answer is most often big wins/close losses, looking at some baseline indicator or a notibly tough schedule. After that, maybe some kink like the weighting of some odd happenstance.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 16, 2017, 11:20:04 AM
i hate his sos system. unless i'm confusing him with someone else, he routinely will have an entire single conf in the top 15-20 sos, with 7-8 of the top10 from that conf. there is no way in hell a single conf has that many of the toughest sos. the only thing i can say is i don't see a conf bias. it's been the pac, the b1g, and the bigxii to accomplish that feat that i've seen, and i wouldn't be surprised if the sec and acc have done it as well.

If your league had a bunch of top teams, and most of those teams played each other, wouldn't SOS naturally cluster?
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 16, 2017, 12:19:36 PM
If your league had a bunch of top teams, and most of those teams played each other, wouldn't SOS naturally cluster?

Yes, but if SOS then goes into your calculation of who the top teams are, it becomes a positive feedback loop. Each time you calculate who the top teams are, the SOS elevates those in that same conference, which then elevates those teams as the top teams, and so forth.

The same thing can happen in basketball RPI. Your RPI value is partially based on your SOS, which is partially based on the RPI of the teams you face, which is affected by your own RPI in their SOS. So conference teams can cluster there as well to a degree since they all play each other much more than they play OOC. I.e. the worst teams in the Big Ten sees a significant RPI boost simply from playing a B1G schedule, even if they're losing those games.

I don't know his methodology enough to know how well he combats this. I'm sure he understands that it's a potential problem.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 16, 2017, 05:16:35 PM
The Big Ten has four top ten preseason ranked teams.  That is pretty stout.


We also all understand that some teams will not be as good as expected and vice versa, and that means some conferences will be the same way. 


Georgia is a slight dog at Notre Dame at the moment, but is ranked a fair bit ahead in the polls.  I don't think HFA is that significant, so I wonder if that is the betting public more than a "real line".  I don't think UGA loses to ND this year.  That could be the homer in me. 


Folks are always suspicious of the ACC.  Either they have an overall bad year, or when they have a very good year, folks think "Well, it was a fluke."  They put a lot of guys into the League.  In the past, my read was their teams were soft in the lines.  They'd play other ACC teams that were soft and not realize it. That could be changing.  Clemson stood up to Alabama who few would consider soft, and seemed to handle Ohio State reasonably well.


Since claiming we'll know more in a few weeks is a cop out, I'll GUESS the B1G is the top dog at the moment.  I suspect either LSU or Auburn might be pretty good, I don't know which.  It looks like Florida or Georgia in the East, which probably means South Carolina wins the division. :57:
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 18, 2017, 10:07:22 AM
Yes, but if SOS then goes into your calculation of who the top teams are, it becomes a positive feedback loop. Each time you calculate who the top teams are, the SOS elevates those in that same conference, which then elevates those teams as the top teams, and so forth.

The same thing can happen in basketball RPI. Your RPI value is partially based on your SOS, which is partially based on the RPI of the teams you face, which is affected by your own RPI in their SOS. So conference teams can cluster there as well to a degree since they all play each other much more than they play OOC. I.e. the worst teams in the Big Ten sees a significant RPI boost simply from playing a B1G schedule, even if they're losing those games.

I don't know his methodology enough to know how well he combats this. I'm sure he understands that it's a potential problem.

I assume there's some mathematical fix for this. We have to remember, how conferences stack up is most likely just a matrix of scores and non-conference games. So at the end of the regular season, that's 42 games for the Big Ten, 56 for the SEC, et al. Unbalanced schedules might tweak that, but my gut is everything recalculates each time anyway, so it's not like there's a momentum/buildup factor.

The other good takeaway is that SOS is a pretty blunt tool, and while it's posted there because people like it, it might not be a pure factor on the back end. I know SB Nation's Bill Connelly doesn't list total SOS, but just lists the rankings of a team's opponents. There's pitfalls there too, but it's still useful.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 18, 2017, 12:32:20 PM
There aren't enough meaningful OOC games to make much of a determination, and the bowl games are often more social outings than real football IMHO.


If some team wins a bowl game 27-24, I can't use that to claim their conference is better.  The game was close, so they teams were apparently close.


No conference completely dominates in OOC or bowl play, even if they have an 8-1 record.  Many of those 8 games could have flipped.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 18, 2017, 03:27:22 PM
There aren't enough meaningful OOC games to make much of a determination, and the bowl games are often more social outings than real football IMHO.

The other thing that bothers me about bowl games is that it almost purports to be a mix of "like" teams from different conferences, but often badly whiffs on that. "B1G #3 vs SEC #3" doesn't mean the third-best team from each league. It means that bowl gets to select in that order, and we all know that a lot more goes into the selection process than merely strength of each team.

And while this is less of an issue in the CFP era, it's still an issue if one conference gets multiple teams into NY6 bowls that you will have what is purportedly B1G #4 vs B12 #4 actually be B1G #6 vs B12 #4.

I firmly believe this hurt the B1G several times in bowl play where each team was "playing up" against a better opponent than they normally would if slotted evenly across conferences.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: ELA on August 18, 2017, 03:44:21 PM
The other thing that bothers me about bowl games is that it almost purports to be a mix of "like" teams from different conferences, but often badly whiffs on that. "B1G #3 vs SEC #3" doesn't mean the third-best team from each league. It means that bowl gets to select in that order, and we all know that a lot more goes into the selection process than merely strength of each team.

And while this is less of an issue in the CFP era, it's still an issue if one conference gets multiple teams into NY6 bowls that you will have what is purportedly B1G #4 vs B12 #4 actually be B1G #6 vs B12 #4.

I firmly believe this hurt the B1G several times in bowl play where each team was "playing up" against a better opponent than they normally would if slotted evenly across conferences.
Which plays into my dream bowl reorganization scenario.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 18, 2017, 06:32:59 PM
i think i'm on an island when i say this..... and maybe Bimini isl or one of the Faulken islands... somewhere nobody wants to be, whichever you choose.

POWER rankings, to me, are just about ALL about eye test.  but there is more to it than that.  consistency is what means (to me) how a team should rank in a real ranking.  meaning, and in example:

(hypothetical mid season: )

we know tOSU is pretty good.. they've beaten everyone they've played. however, they barely beat an ooc VT,  though the week before they stomped a mud hole in the Illini, who beat VT like a drum..

meanwhile, VT just doesn't play well unless they play somebody nowhere near as talented- but then they click and and put up 50+ points... except in that Illini game, who took them out of their comfort zone on that day, and because (to the eye) VT didn't have an answer for one key position- which was the slot receiver.   tOSU DID have an answer to that Illini threat and shut them down- the fighting Illini had nothing that would budge tOSU, but VT did- they got in a dogfight upfront pushing match, and almost beat tOSU- neither team could move the ball through the air, and maybe because tOSU doesn't have a slot threat like the Illini have, or maybe because VT figured out a way to stop that from happening again. 

other than these games, VT is 5-2, the fighting Illini are 4-3, and tOSU is 7-0...

who has the best team (ignoring the helmets)?

to me, this is ALL about eye test, and it's all about power rankings- and both feed overall rankings.  consistency is the key- if a team can pass at will against anyone they play (or rush... or both) no matter who they play, and they are consistent week in week out, then... they're pretty dang good... if a team just flashes momentarily, but look like they can beat anyone WHILE they flash, then- they are a pretty dang good team but just not consistent, so... lower ranking. it's the consistency i think that separates teams with similar builds- and that's on coaching (preparation) and execution more than anything imHo, and why we give 'helmet' teams breaks, and also- the better coaches are far more consistent... hence why they're good coaches... and why we're suspect of 'pan flashers'...


imHo, the ACC has done everything it can to bury the reputation they earned in the early part of the century, and they are the conference atop the others.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on August 18, 2017, 08:01:19 PM
It makes perfect sense for SoS to be clustered by conference.  It's not something you want to like, but logically, it's sound.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 19, 2017, 01:44:11 PM
POWER rankings, to me, are just about ALL about eye test.  but there is more to it than that.  consistency is what means (to me) how a team should rank in a real ranking.

I agree, a power ranking isn't your resume, it's what you'd do to another team on a neutral field. And to some extent consistency plays into that. A team that can be up enough to beat a top-5 team on the road and then lose the next weekend to an unranked team at home is not a team you can "trust".

Which is why putting a team who beat another team below them in a power ranking can make sense. It's one of of those "yeah, they lost head to head, but I'd wager they'd win 7 of 10 if they played a series" kind of things.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 19, 2017, 02:58:10 PM
SEC teams also tend to play up because their fans travel, so they tend to be prime candidates.


Until recently, the Peach Bowl had the #2 from the ACC and the #6 from the SEC.  They also had tie ins with the Cotton Bowl against a top B12 team.  This has flipped around a lot obviously with the recent playoff changes.


A team with a solid fan base will get selected before a team with a lame fan base if the two teams are both available.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 19, 2017, 03:32:36 PM
A team with a solid fan base will get selected before a team with a lame fan base if the two teams are both available.

wasn't there a clause in the BCS that basically ended the document with "...unless we don't like the match, at what time we'll change it" which negated the entire purpose?

but power rankings- how well a team is playing TODAY (or, actually how they played their most recent game)... and it doesn't matter, when it possibly should matter. 

maybe you will agree with this statement: a few seasons ago (can't recall which) UGA played ugly early on, barely scraping by.  however, they winded up and slapped UF (this may have been the year both teams stormed the field), and i'm pretty sure they would have beaten anyone by seasons end.. didn't matter.. the die was cast with their early losses.  this is basically the 'hot team advantage' dynamic that opponents of play-off/tournament argue with. 

the first season of the BCS my fellas won out- beating FSU in Tempe- and.... I am SO happy they didn't play tOSU that year, who had fallen to MSU in something that would never be duplicated in a ten game series (my opinion, obviously).  the hot team, tOSU that season, was ONE series out of that game by losing to a really but momentarily super hot MSU. 

taking this a step further- MSU easily was ranked ahead of tOSU the week they beat them.  UTk or FSU, only pegged that meter once or twice that season.  tOSU on the other hand, they pegged that meter several times.  (all by my own reckoning).... yet they missed the dance.   
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: TyphonInc on August 19, 2017, 06:49:53 PM
I just had a draw dropping moment. I rolled through ESPN's Collage football page, and in their top 10 articles there was only ONE, that's right only 1 SEC article. I couldn't believe it:



Heisman - NCAA
Heisman - NCAA
BG Scholarship - Mac
Clemson - ACC
Nebraska - B1G
M*ch*g*n - B1G
Toledo - Mac
PSU - B1G
Miss State - SEC
FSU - ACC


More articles about the Mac then the SEC. Is that a sign of the anti-Christ?


So.. I went and looked at the top 50 articles.
30 of the top 50 articles are on the SEC. Ahh... shooo... that was a close one I thought I would have to reconsider my eSECpn bias stance.




Texas - B12
OU - B12
UCLA - Pac
Alabama - SEC
Clemson - ACC
Vandy - SEC
AUB - SEC
Georgia - SEC
OSU - B1G
BG Scholarship - Mac
M*ch*g*n - B1G
A&M - SEC
BYU - Indy
USF - AAC
LSU - SEC
Georgia - SEC
Missouri - SEC
A&M - SEC
LSU - SEC
Florida - SEC
SEC Nation - SEC
SEC Coaches - SEC
Georgia - SEC
SEC Reciervers - SEC
Missouri - SEC
SEC Quarterbacks - SEC
SEC Nation - SEC
SEC Camp - SEC
SEC Matchups - SEC
SEC Breakout - SEC
S. Carolina - SEC
SEC Cover - SEC
SEC DB's - SEC
Tenn - SEC
Tenn - SEC
Alabama - SEC
Payton Award - FBS
USC - Pac
SEC Coaches - SEC
Tenn - SEC
OSU - B1G


Total:
SEC - 30
B1G - 5
ACC - 3
Mac - 3 (one was a repeat on BG scholly)
NCAA General - 3
B12 - 2
Pac - 2
Indy - 1
FBS - 1


Guess who will be propped up as the best conference according to the world wide leader?  :34:

Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 20, 2017, 07:20:34 AM
The only Vandy story up there is a player getting 15 years for rape. My that's some eSECpn fluffing.

(We find what we want in this world. We want to be agreaved and feel the big powers are against us. It's not surprising there would be an SEC network video dump somewhere in a content list of 50)
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: TyphonInc on August 20, 2017, 08:22:15 AM
That's your comeback?  "60% of all articles on ESPN focus on the SEC, but 1 of them has negative tone towards the Vandy, therefore "We" must be wrong and there is not an ESPN media bias towards the SEC."


Yah that's some weak sauce there.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 20, 2017, 11:58:42 AM
so, I rolled through Fox Sports College Football page..............


http://www.foxsports.com/college-football (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football)
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 20, 2017, 12:36:32 PM
as i've argued here several times now, the ACC is the best in my opinion, and just a shade better than the SEC and B10... the PAC is right there with them... the 12 is trailing.  and therefor i like to believe that parity is alive and well.

my boss (whom i truly dislike as a person and a leader, and not only because he is my boss) has something he likes to repeat constantly, which is "perception is reality".. I FRIGGIN' HATE THAT PHRASE. 'perception' is just that.  Reality is hardwired.  It's my solid opinion that when someone utters the phrase "perception is reality" they're intent to manipulate you into their vision and where they want to establish vector as the director/owner. 

in that^ vane, we buy into the perception of news as the vector- and as the 'director of reality', and in their world, which thrives on opposition and strife, they prey on 'perceptions' of things that just aren't real, and they usually can't be quantified if they chose their target carefully enough to further the ruse.

it's the same in sports with the giants ESPN and others, who operate far above their station- using the platform we've granted them to paint 'perception' into the 'reality' that better suits them and their goals.

the truth is, in my opinion (which i guess is my perception) that there is parity throughout the power five, but argument enough to lead observers away from that fact. 

and then there comes 'conditioning' in the mental sense.  we've been conditioned that the SEC is the best and others have to accept that.  because of the conditioning, a few wins (if even expected- of course they're expected, you've been conditioned) cherry picked and there is your proof- which is part of the 'perception', and while ignoring other factors.   

imHo- the BigXII is behind the 'power' curve- the four remaining stand pretty close to one another.  However, I also wager that will shift after the first two weeks when all the attention is focused where the talking heads want us to focus, and which will support their claims.

and this is why i like message boards that have reasonable posters from different agencies stating and backing their claims- w/o (or with less) influence from manipulators.  we can form better opinions. 
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 20, 2017, 02:13:19 PM
SEC teams also tend to play up because their fans travel, so they tend to be prime candidates.

The SEC basically doesn't "travel" to bowl games... They're pretty much all right in their backyard.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: TyphonInc on August 20, 2017, 04:43:38 PM
so, I rolled through Fox Sports College Football page..............


http://www.foxsports.com/college-football (http://www.foxsports.com/college-football)
...and?
Well first they separate out their news and videos. Their front page has 26 videos listed with only 7 of them being towards the SEC, a scant 27%. :imp:
SEC - 7
B1G - 4
B12 - 4
ACC - 4
P12 - 4
Heisman - 1
ND - 1
South Florida - 1


Fox has a vested interest in the P12, B12 and B1G, if they took an ESPN bias stance I would expect 60%+ of their coverage to consist of their property. Instead they have 12 of 26 (46%) And they have 54% dedicated to the rest.

Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Kris61 on August 20, 2017, 07:21:00 PM
...and?
Well first they separate out their news and videos. Their front page has 26 videos listed with only 7 of them being towards the SEC, a scant 27%. :imp:
SEC - 7
B1G - 4
B12 - 4
ACC - 4
P12 - 4
Heisman - 1
ND - 1
South Florida - 1


Fox has a vested interest in the P12, B12 and B1G, if they took an ESPN bias stance I would expect 60%+ of their coverage to consist of their property. Instead they have 12 of 26 (46%) And they have 54% dedicated to the rest.



So even though Fox doesn't air a single SEC game they still have more coverage dedicated to the SEC than any other conference.  It's almost like these companies gear their coverage toward people who care the most about college football.  Zany.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 20, 2017, 08:17:26 PM
That's your comeback?  "60% of all articles on ESPN focus on the SEC, but 1 of them has negative tone towards the Vandy, therefore "We" must be wrong and there is not an ESPN media bias towards the SEC."


Yah that's some weak sauce there.

If one of the top stories was a Buckeye getting arrested, we wouldn't be saying "Wow, ESPN is has the Big 10 leading the site. Big time" OSU fans would take it as a slight. It seems like weird methodology to count reports about an athlete's heinous crime as part of a bias for the conference.

But you seem to want some stronger sauce.

I looked at some point this morning and four of their top 23 stories were about the SEC, before you hit the SEC network video dump. If it is your opinion that spots 20-50 on a website's content list are highly telling, you want to find something wrong. Because of the structure of TV, they will have more SEC video available. That will manifest somewhere on the site. This is the way of the world.

I'm not even arguing there's no "bias" because that's an imprecise word. Will ESPN have more SEC on it's site? Naturally. It has 24 hours a day of SEC programming available and just canned half its writing staff. Does that in turn mean the network you're watching is rooting against the big ten on the field? Probably not.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: TyphonInc on August 20, 2017, 08:41:45 PM
One...out...of...thirty...

"Christ, it's like I am playing cards with my brothers kids or somethin'. You nerve-wracking soms of bitches!!" ~Tombstone 1993

I'll concede, you're right. ESPN only has 29 positive articles out of 49 on the front page about the SEC. A measly 59% of their front page is dedicated to the the conference they own. (https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fv480%2FTyphon_Inc%2FJailBreak128_zps0wyx1yrq.jpg&hash=d5168a3d007eb2a5efd310aa40e35a3a)
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: bayareabadger on August 20, 2017, 11:33:32 PM
One...out...of...thirty...

"Christ, it's like I am playing cards with my brothers kids or somethin'. You nerve-wracking soms of bitches!!" ~Tombstone 1993

I'll concede, you're right. ESPN only has 29 positive articles out of 49 on the front page about the SEC. A measly 59% of their front page is dedicated to the the conference they own. (https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Fimg.photobucket.com%2Falbums%2Fv480%2FTyphon_Inc%2FJailBreak128_zps0wyx1yrq.jpg&hash=d5168a3d007eb2a5efd310aa40e35a3a)

Those 29 are positive? It's interesting, it doesn't seem like you know that. Is Saban saying odd things to reporters positive? I've no idea.

But lets play with percentages. At the moment, one of the first 20 stories/video spots on the site are SEC-centric. If you want to be generous, a video of nice stiff arms has an LSU RB on the front. I don't count this, but whatever. So 5-10 percent of the top 20 stories are SEC. Then it goes SEC bonkers.

If you've worked on websites, you know people don't read very far. The chance more than 1-2 in 100 get to story No. 20 is very low. They chance they read the gobs of SEC at the bottom are stupendously low. That's probably filler. So yes, ESPN indeed does have SEC filler. One might ask, if the thumb sat so heavily on the scale, why would they bury all that content they're pushing?

The shape of their content is actually kind of interesting, as it's the single column everyone is going to, but the weekend lead was a QB package with like six elements. The flow of it doesn't work all that well.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2017, 10:03:46 AM
Does anyone here think ESPN SEC coverage has any "real" impact on anything important?


I don't.


As someone noted, in all the early OOC games with SEC teams, the SEC team is an underdog except for Bama-FSU.  If that comes to pass, it will be hard to look at a 1-8 early OOC record and claim any superiority without a lot of qualifications.


Of course, if the SEC ends up say 4-5, those 3 upset wins will get some coverage.


But, it does not matter.  I don't pay attention to ESPN "analysis" anyway.


The conference with four teams in the top ten preseason looks pretty strong to me.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 04:59:49 PM
The Big Ten has four top ten preseason ranked teams.

They do?  In which ranking?  Here's the preseason AP:

1. Alabama (52)
2. Ohio State (3)
3. Florida State (4)
4. USC (2)
5. Clemson
6. Penn State
7. Oklahoma
8. Washington
9. Wisconsin
10. Oklahoma State
11. Michigan
12. Auburn
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. Georgia
16. Louisville
17. Florida
18. Miami (FL)
19. South Florida
20. Kansas State
21. Virginia Tech
22. West Virginia
23. Texas
24. Washington State
25. Tennessee

So in the Top 10, the B1G has three, B12 has two, ACC has two, PAC has two, and SEC has only one.

In the overall Top 25,

SEC: 6
B12: 5
ACC: 5
B1G: 4
PAC: 4
AAC: 1


I think the conferences are quite a bit closer than many of you seem to believe.  Just like in the old SEC-dominated era, at its best the gap between it and the next best just wasn't that large.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 21, 2017, 05:04:40 PM


if you've read anything i've tried to say about it, i agree with you. it's closer than most think, and each P5 has an argument (except BigVII, imHo, but.... could be they end up the best by season's end, too- it's how these things seem to work)
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 05:08:51 PM

if you've read anything i've tried to say about it, i agree with you. it's closer than most think, and each P5 has an argument (except BigVII, imHo, but.... could be they end up the best by season's end, too- it's how these things seem to work)

Why omit the B12?  The B12 has more AP top 25 teams than the PAC and the B1G.  I don't necessarily agree with all of the AP rankings, but the AP poll has traditionally served as the poll with the greatest chance at being objective, and I believe it's a fairly representative national sample.

Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 21, 2017, 05:14:51 PM
it's just my opinion, and worth only that.  UTa has the biggest upside- and I think they'll surprise this season. WVU is about where they'll be by season's end, again by my reckoning.  OU I just can't invest in no matter QB's or returning starters- a new coach and one so young is bound to make a few mistakes... oSu has one helluva single dimension, but... it's only one dimension in the end... KState is a great big UNK to me.  I'm thinking, as asinine as it sounds, if there was more to them we'd have heard more.. that kinda defines 'dark horse', but i just don't think they have it in them to be a real contender. 
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 05:21:08 PM
it's just my opinion, and worth only that.  UTa has the biggest upside- and I think they'll surprise this season. WVU is about where they'll be by season's end, again by my reckoning.  OU I just can't invest in no matter QB's or returning starters- a new coach and one so young is bound to make a few mistakes... oSu has one helluva single dimension, but... it's only one dimension in the end... KState is a great big UNK to me.  I'm thinking, as asinine as it sounds, if there was more to them we'd have heard more.. that kinda defines 'dark horse', but i just don't think they have it in them to be a real contender. 

I mean sure, it's just opinion.

I wouldn't personally have Texas ranked in the top 25, or even the top 40, but there's a perception that Texas has enough talent, and that Tom Herman is a good enough coach to take advantage of that talent, and finish 8-4ish, which tends to be about right for the bottom of the Top 25.

But we can speculate like that on any team.  LSU's got a new head coach and I don't think they're going to be 13-worthy.  And (no offense intended) I don't think Tennessee is top-25 worthy. 
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 21, 2017, 05:33:53 PM
well, we're going to circle back around to the question i often ask myself while looking at polls to begin with:

Is this a projection of where the voter believes the teams will finish? Or, is it a reflection of where they stand right NOW. 

and that is a fair question, again imHo. 

No offense on UTk... their helmet has lost it's shine- and they must earn it.  My guess is they are ranked at that place to tout the UF match-up week 3.  A lot of these ranks have that flavor imHo. 

I'm not blowing smoke on UTa- I think they will surprise- but i don't think they'll set the world on fire, either.  I think it's fair to expect them hovering in the top 15 by season's end.  I wager they'll finish above oSu.  just my opinion.  and this is talking in a 'how they finish' vantage. 

LSU has the ponies to power through a lot of their schedule. unlike UTk.  I hold Auburn suspect.  they are given to implosions. 

i'm thinking Louisville is under-ranked... i'm thinking they're in the top 12 class. 
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 21, 2017, 05:43:55 PM
let me qualify that "where they think they'll finish" comment....

"did the voter take into account the ranked teams schedule?"... if so.... the poll is bogus.  a poll (not a power ranking) is either/or- they can't pull (what i often accuse women of doing) 'savage tactics' and fluidly float between two standards... they are either 'ranked right here right now future notwithstanding', or, they're "well, they might be as good as teamX, but they stand a better chance of winning out".   a poll like the coaches or the AP attempts to crowd source opinion, but to my knowledge they fail to demand a standard be upheld (finish or now)...

Bama may very well be the best right now and may be projected to finish undefeated... tOSU may very well be the second best, but I'd wager they've a harder row than Bama (and i would suggest that's why they're second)... I figure USCw and Washington wouldn't be ranked in the top 15 w/o the cleared schedules.

I reckon this post will piss a lot of folks off, but it's just how i see it.   
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on August 21, 2017, 06:37:03 PM
Washington State is preseason top-25? Wow... I know Mike Leach had a couple really rough years there to start, but if so that's a heck of a job building that program. I hadn't paid attention lately. I had no clue that he'd actually successfully turned it around.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2017, 07:06:55 PM
the Pirate can coach
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2017, 07:08:10 PM
Why omit the B12? 



cause it's fun to jerk someone's chain and stir the pot
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 21, 2017, 07:11:04 PM
FULL RANKINGS[/size]TOP 25 TEAMS, WEEK 1[/color][/size][/font][/size][/font][/color]
RANK
TEAM
RECORD
POINTS
1ST PLACE VOTES
PREV
CHANGE
HI/LOW
[/size][/font][/size][/font][/color]
1
(http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/alabama)Alabama[/b][/url][/font][/size][/font][/size][/font][/size][/font]
14-1
1603
49
2
1
1/1
[/size][/font]
2
(http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/ohio-state)Ohio State[/b][/url][/color][/font][/size][/font][/size][/font]
11-2
1512
5
6
4
2/2
[/size]
3
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/florida-state)Florida State[/b][/url][/color]
10-3
1434
4
8
5
3/3
[/size]
4
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/southern-california)Southern California[/b][/url][/color]
10-3
1415
0
5
1
4/4
[/size]
5
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/clemson)Clemson[/b][/url][/color]
14-1
1367
7
1
-4
5/5
[/size]
6
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/penn-state)Penn State[/b][/url][/color]
11-3
1257
0
7
1
6/6
[/size]
7
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/washington)Washington[/b][/url][/color]
12-2
1245
0
4
-3
7/7
[/size]
8
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/oklahoma)Oklahoma[/b][/url][/color]
11-2
1237
0
3
-5
8/8
[/size]
9
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/michigan)Michigan[/b][/url][/color]
10-3
959
0
10
1
9/9
[/size]
10
[/color] (http://www.usatoday.com/sports/ncaaf/wisconsin)Wisconsin[/b][/url][/color]
11-3
936
0
9
-1
1

Only the coaches poll was available when I posted about four B1G teams in the top ten.



Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 07:27:13 PM
Well, the coaches' poll generally sucks arse, so that would explain why they so stupidly put 4 teams from the B1G into it.  :)
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 07:28:10 PM
cause it's fun to jerk someone's chain and stir the pot

Eh, I don't really care all that much.  But I do find it interesting how perception can vary so widely, and how regional biases play such a large role.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2017, 07:39:22 PM
I feel the Big 5 conferences are all very close, usually feel that way year to year


and things keep changing, a few years ago, the Big Ten was awful and the SEC was dominant.  a few years later, Penn St and Michigan are very strong and making the Big Ten look better



This season it could be Kansas St and Texas playing well to go along with Oklahoma - we don't know
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 09:38:44 PM
I feel the Big 5 conferences are all very close, usually feel that way year to year


and things keep changing, a few years ago, the Big Ten was awful and the SEC was dominant.  a few years later, Penn St and Michigan are very strong and making the Big Ten look better



This season it could be Kansas St and Texas playing well to go along with Oklahoma - we don't know

KSU has been pretty good most of the last 6 years or so.  That wouldn't be anything new.  Oklahoma State's going to be good this year, too.  And West Virginia.  I also think TCU will be better than last year. 

I won't comment much on Texas, the Horns have been flat-out bad for pretty much the past 7 years.  Start with a winning record.  Baby steps.

But right now, preseason, half the B12 is in the AP top 25.  That's more ranked teams than the B1G. Just pointing out some fun facts.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: longhorn320 on August 21, 2017, 09:54:06 PM
Is Texas actually ranked higher then Nebraska



Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Drew4UTk on August 21, 2017, 10:04:03 PM
off topic:

Cincy- I know it's a pita, but if you hit the little button near the end of the second row (iirc), that has a big A in the upper left and a small A in the lower right after you C&P, it removes most the goofy formatting...

it's a problem i'm aware of, and there is a fix... it's just that i can't do it on this server.  the new server will be online by Saturday (I'm told) and i can do it then. 
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2017, 10:12:46 PM
Is Texas actually ranked higher then Nebraska





of course, same as last year in the pre-season poll
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 21, 2017, 11:13:32 PM
lulz
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: FearlessF on August 21, 2017, 11:37:36 PM
Cincy


When I do a "paste" I get an option to paste as plain text


that seems to remove the formatting
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2017, 06:21:45 AM
Sorry.

Preseason polls are fun for talking about.  It would be interesting to see if "we" here could do any better as measured by difference with final polls.  I tried that in simple fashion with who is most over ranked etc.

I know we once tried a collective poll and I also recall it got hard when you were in the teens, and I would just "guess", which is probably what coaches do (other their assistants who do it).

The writers are just compiling "common knowledge" which is more common than knowledge.

The top three almost always end up in the top ten.
The top ten end up ranked, with one team dropping out in many years.
The second ten is about 65% "right" in terms of being ranked.
The 21-25 group is guesswork.

There is some correlation which performance but obviously it ain't perfect.  Otherwise the season would be boring.  I know some Saturday's we probably all watch our team and if the score is "comfortable" we may channel flip to see that top ten team trailing somebody unranked to see what's afoot.

Every year, a Pitt ends up beating a Clemson.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Temp430 on August 22, 2017, 07:47:11 AM
They do?  In which ranking?  Here's the preseason AP:

1. Alabama (52)
2. Ohio State (3)
3. Florida State (4)
4. USC (2)
5. Clemson
6. Penn State
7. Oklahoma
8. Washington
9. Wisconsin
10. Oklahoma State
11. Michigan
12. Auburn
13. LSU
14. Stanford
15. Georgia
16. Louisville
17. Florida
18. Miami (FL)
19. South Florida
20. Kansas State
21. Virginia Tech
22. West Virginia
23. Texas
24. Washington State
25. Tennessee

So in the Top 10, the B1G has three, B12 has two, ACC has two, PAC has two, and SEC has only one.

In the overall Top 25,

SEC: 6
B12: 5
ACC: 5
B1G: 4
PAC: 4
AAC: 1


I think the conferences are quite a bit closer than many of you seem to believe.  Just like in the old SEC-dominated era, at its best the gap between it and the next best just wasn't that large.

You changed my mind.  Right now the Big Ten is the best conference over all.   The ACC, PAC, and B12 are tied for second.   The SEC, big 1 and little 13 or however many they have now minus the tide, is last of the power five.  They're just too fat and slow from all the chitlins.
Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: utee94 on August 22, 2017, 07:53:42 AM
lulz


I see what you did there.  :)


I think the B10, ACC, and SEC are all pretty good.


I think the PAC and B12 are probably a little bit behind them, but not enough to make any huge differences.


Personally, I've never cared much about relative conference strength.  I do, of course, always want to see my team play interesting games against good competition.


I understand a lot of folks get wrapped up in the relative conference strength argument as it relates to admission to the CFP.  To me, that becomes less and less interesting with each passing year.



Title: Re: OT - Which is the best conference in football, the ACC or Big Ten?
Post by: Cincydawg on August 22, 2017, 08:46:09 AM
Completely agree, but this close to the season we all start chatting about minutia.


By November, we might all be amazed at how good the B12 looks, or Pac, or Big East.


Well, probably not the Big East. :86: