CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: Cincydawg on August 13, 2017, 10:56:34 AM
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Pick one of each, and we'll see as the season progresses who does the best. I'm using the coaches poll, as they all are very similar. One choice for most over ranked and under ranked. You can pick a team ranked 20th as over ranked and we'll count it if they end up 30th or not even getting votes, and 10 spots or 13 spots etc.
TOP 25 TEAMS, WEEK 1
1Alabama
2Ohio State
3Florida State
4Southern California
5Clemson
6Penn State
7Washington
8Oklahoma
9Michigan
10Wisconsin
11Oklahoma State
12Louisiana State
13Auburn
14Stanford
15Georgia
16Florida
17Louisville
18Miami
19Kansas State
20West Virginia
21South Florida
22Virginia Tech
23Texas
24Tennessee
25Utah
Hi/Low = The highest and lowest ranking each team has held during the designated season. Any team that starts the season unranked and/or falls out of the top 25 during the season will reflect a "NR" (not ranked) designation as its lowest rank.
Others Receiving Votes
Washington State 99; Colorado 72; TCU 58; Boise State 49; Notre Dame 49; Texas A&M 46; Pittsburgh 45; North Carolina State 39; Oregon 37; Northwestern 25; Nebraska 23; Memphis 22; Arkansas 22; Mississippi State 19; San Diego State 18; Appalachian State 11; Brigham Young 10; Georgia Tech 10; Tulsa 10; Wyoming 9; Western Michigan 8; Temple 8; North Carolina 8; Houston 7; Troy 6; Minnesota 6; Iowa 5; Louisiana Tech 4; Syracuse 3; Arizona 2; Army 1; Colorado State 1; Michigan State 1; Maryland 1; Toledo 1; UCLA 1.
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Here is the link I used:
http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/ (http://sportspolls.usatoday.com/ncaa/football/polls/coaches-poll/)
I'm going to take Washington as over ranked and NC State as under ranked (they are 33rd technically in ORVs).
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Texas over ranked
Tennessee under ranked
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Florida underranked.
Michigan overranked
In orher words, Florida is going to blow out Michigan!
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Clemson overranked
Stanford underranked
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Michigan over
LSU under
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Florida State over-ranked
Miami under-ranked
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USC over
Nebraska under
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Interestingly, we have as yet zero over lap, which is kind fun.
When we get a few more responses I'll sum them up so you can check.
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clemson overranked
florida as under
would also label mich as over and texas as under.
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Michigan over
Washington State under
For me, picking an over-ranked team was relatively easy. I wanted a team with a lot of room to fall so I limited myself to the top-10 and just chose a team that I think can't sustain that ranking. I don't think Harbaugh has Michigan at a point yet where they can absorb personnel losses like they had after 2016 and just reload.
Picking an under-ranked team was much harder. People above me chose:
- #12 LSU
- #14 Stanford
- #16 Florida
- #18 Miami
- #24 Tennessee
- #36 Nebraska*
I couldn't pull the trigger on any of the top-16 just because there isn't much room for growth so you'd need an almost perfect season to get any points out of that pick. I have no faith in Miami or Tennessee. Thus, I went with #26 Washington State. Could this be the year that the Pirate breaks through in Pullman?
*Question: Are "others receiving votes" such as Badge's selection of #36 Nebraska and my selection of #26 WSU eligible as picks in this game or do I need to go back and pick one of the top-25 ranked teams?
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Clemson over ranked
Minnesota under ranked
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You can chose a team that is only receiving votes. We can easily calculate their apparent ranking.
Obviously, a team ranked 30 that ends up say 10-3 would have been very under ranked and you'd have chosen wisely. I think I chose a team out of the top 25 myself. I forget now.
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Clemson over
Boise St under
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Michigan Florida
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
Ala2268 Michigan UCLA
Bamajoe PSU UGA
ELA LSU Colorado
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Four votes for Clemson and two for Michigan in over ranked. More disparity in the under ranked part, which makes sense.
Miami is the only one with two votes.
This is rather interesting to me.
Please add more votes for folks who have not weighed in yet (or folks who want to vote often).
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Texas over ranked
Tennessee under ranked
I think youre right
Just hope we have a winning season
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Four votes for Clemson and two for Michigan in over ranked. More disparity in the under ranked part, which makes sense.
Miami is the only one with two votes.
This is rather interesting to me.
Please add more votes for folks who have not weighed in yet (or folks who want to vote often).
I think Watson was a very special player, and will be impossible to replace. I'm also not sure they can reload on defense the way OSU or 'bama do.
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Clemson has a lot of guys back on defense. Losing Watson is akin to losing Vince Young IMHO, that one player who decides games. I figure them for a 9-3 kind of regular season.
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Michigan-over. Going 8-4. Lose to Florida, at PSU, at Wisconsin, and tOSU.
UCLA-under. Going 8-4. Lose at Stanford, Oregon, at Washington, and at USC.
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You can chose a team that is only receiving votes. We can easily calculate their apparent ranking.
Obviously, a team ranked 30 that ends up say 10-3 would have been very under ranked and you'd have chosen wisely. I think I chose a team out of the top 25 myself. I forget now.
If that were not the case, I would be picking Kentucky as under ranked.
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Could we do all NRV teams as one below the last team with a vote? But they might be artificially bumped even lower by a bunch of teams with 1 vote, that by even finishing the year with like 3 votes, they would have jumped up 10 spots.
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I think Watson was a very special player, and will be impossible to replace. I'm also not sure they can reload on defense the way OSU or 'bama do.
agreed. i think they'll end up in the 15-20 range. a good team, but not top 5.
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I think Watson was a very special player, and will be impossible to replace. I'm also not sure they can reload on defense the way OSU or 'bama do.
Clemson is not exactly reloading on defense. Return 7 starters. In his Unit Rankings, Phil Steele has their DL #1, LB #12, and DB #15.
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I think Watson was a very special player, and will be impossible to replace. I'm also not sure they can reload on defense the way OSU or 'bama do.
Clemson had the top defense in 2014 per Football Outsiders' play-by-play metric.
They lost six of their top seven linemen, their top two linebacker and two of their three most productive defensive backs. They finished sixth in 2015.
Going into 2016, they lost their top two pass rushers who combined for 24.5 sacks, two of their top three linebackers and three of the top four in the secondary. They finished sixth.
They go into 2017 losing four notable starters in an emotional leader and overachieving linebacker, a very good veteran corner, a top-flight tackle and solid one-year starter at safety. They return seven defensive starters, with nine four- of five star defensive linemen, six linebackers, and six defensive backs available and one of the best DCs in the country (led by a tackle who I describe as "if Gary lived up to the hype").
It's CFB, so that guarantees little, but it's reasonable to say they reload like anyone's business on that side of the ball.
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We all agree we have no coherent idea of what the rankings are supposed to mean, so I remain confused what constitutes an under or over rank. It's all a din of conjecture and guessing.
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Clemson is not exactly reloading on defense. Return 7 starters. In his Unit Rankings, Phil Steele has their DL #1, LB #12, and DB #15.
My bad. This article Mixed bag for Clemson: 8 starters return on offense; 8 lost on defense (http://www.thestate.com/sports/college/acc/clemson-university/article60848267.html) I made an assumption that it was 8 starters, not 8 scrubs.
ESPN also notes How do you replace a legend? Clemson's about to try (http://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/20361082/history-shows-replacing-legends-deshaun-watson-nearly-impossible) claiming only 1 team in the top 10 has controversy at the QB spot.
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In the extant case, I'll be just comparing preseason rankings with final rankings in this poll to see which team changed the most, up or down, and whether any of us guessed at it.
Let's say I'm right and NCSU at #33 ends up 9-4 and ranked say #12. That is a +21 jump. I think.
Let's say Clemson starts at #8 or wherever they are and ends up 8-5 and #27. That's a -19 jump.
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Wow, where are those 5 losses going to come from? Vegas has 2 (FSU and @Louisville) on the schedule. Lane Stadium versus the Hokies won't be easy but they should be favored... They miss Miami the only other ACC projected to get more than 7 wins. And the Bowl Game? I mean things have to go pretty wrong to lose 3 games they are favored to win to get to 8-5.
I was guessing a more like 10-3 15th ranking.
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Florida Michigan
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
My picks are shown backwards. I had Michigan over-rated and Florida under-rated
My picks are5 shown backwards. I had Michigan over-rated and Florida under-rated
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Wow, where are those 5 losses going to come from? Vegas has 2 (FSU and @Louisville) on the schedule. Lane Stadium versus the Hokies won't be easy but they should be favored... They miss Miami the only other ACC projected to get more than 7 wins. And the Bowl Game? I mean things have to go pretty wrong to lose 3 games they are favored to win to get to 8-5.
I was guessing a more like 10-3 15th ranking.
Don't think it was a projection just an example of how he's going to quantify "overranked".
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My picks are shown backwards. I had Michigan over-rated and Florida under-rated
My picks are5 shown backwards. I had Michigan over-rated and Florida under-rated
Wow, where are those 5 losses going to come from? Vegas has 2 (FSU and @Louisville) on the schedule. Lane Stadium versus the Hokies won't be easy but they should be favored... They miss Miami the only other ACC projected to get more than 7 wins. And the Bowl Game? I mean things have to go pretty wrong to lose 3 games they are favored to win to get to 8-5.
I was guessing a more like 10-3 15th ranking.
I agree with you. I don't think they will catch 5 losses either. It's an example.
A 10-3 record will end up around 10-13th in the rankings in most years.
That isn't that much of a drop for Clemson.
Of course you could argue that dropping from 8th to 13th is more significant than dropping from 18th to 23rd.
I also agree that getting one vote is not different from getting two votes or three in the RVU category.
The "winner" in this contest would be anyone who picked Alabama who then somehow went 7-6 at least on that side of the ball. If you pick say Vanderbilt and they go 15-0 you would win that also, if it happened.
Clemson is unlikely to drop very far from the preseason ranking I think. They could hit 9-4 and be ranked 15-18 I think. 8-5 is not very plausible barring the usual rash of injuries.
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http://georgia.247sports.com/ContentGallery/Predicting-college-footballs-most-disappointing-team-in-2017-106303873/2
USC
Penn State
USC again
LSU
USC again
Auburn and ...
USC again.
So, the "experts" largely pick USC to be a flop.
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For over ranked I will go with Penn State. They may have a good offense, but to be ranked 6th it might help to have a strong defense. I don't see it.
For under ranked I am going with Georgia. They have too much coming back on both sides of the ball to be 15th. Swap them with Penn State and you have them about right.
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I'm updating (and correcting) the original summary as votes come in.
Voting will be open until the games start obviously.
Should be kinda fun.
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Overrated: LSU
Underrated: Colorado
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Speaking of rankings:
https://www.cbssports.com/collegefootball/rankings
They all are the same with very little variation. Why bother with multiple polls if they are the same?
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Michigan Florida
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
Ala2268 Michigan UCLA
Bamajoe PSU UGA
ELA LSU Colorado
How many of us are already in trouble?
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Texas was a good call for over ranked.
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I'm a bit surprised no one picked Auburn as over ranked. I think I considered them and landed on UDubb.
Auburn is probably still pretty good with their defense.
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Texas was a good call for over ranked.
thanks
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Michigan Florida
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
Ala2268 Michigan UCLA
Bamajoe PSU UGA
ELA LSU Colorado
Clemson is looking pretty sound. LSU has dropped.Tenn and Florida don't look great at all.
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Texas was a good call for over ranked.
thanks
Yeah, and Nebraska was a bad call for underranked.
Badger's B1G blinders strike again.
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Yeah, and Nebraska was a bad call for underranked.
Badger's B1G blinders strike again.
?? WTF man..
I just thought the Diaco hire for DC and the new QB would help them improve on the 9 games they won last season.
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Clemson, which most of us viewed as over ranked, now looks to be a juggernaut.
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?? WTF man..
I just thought the Diaco hire for DC and the new QB would help them improve on the 9 games they won last season.
Don't be so sensative. ;)
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Clemson, which most of us viewed as over ranked, now looks to be a juggernaut.
They didn't look so hot against Auburn.
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I almost went with Iowa as my underrated team. Losing Greg Davis is addition by subtraction.
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?? WTF man..
I just thought the Diaco hire for DC and the new QB would help them improve on the 9 games they won last season.
I wasn't sure about Diaco in his first season, but I thought the new QB would throw fewer INTs
I was wrong
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I almost went with Iowa as my underrated team. Losing Greg Davis is addition by subtraction.
Ain't THAT the truth.
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has GD retired, or is he coaching this season?
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No team has better apparent wins than Clemson at this point.
Auburn has enough defense to be difficult.
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They didn't look so hot against Auburn.
Just hating on defense Badge
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If we all could revise our picks now, I bet everyone would drop Clemson from the over rated category.
I will stick with NCSU as under. That opening loss was of course tough.
I'll stick with UDubb as over though obviously I'd like to fall back to my other choice of Auburn. I read some stuff late that suggested Auburn might be good this year, really really.
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I'll stick with my picks
the Vols didn't beat the Gators, but they could still do well
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I have USC as overrated. That could still be.
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LSU looking pretty strong right now for overrated (I think if we were done now it would be either them or Stanford right?)
Jury still out on Colorado being underrated again, we'll learn something about them this week.
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The current rankings seem pretty solid. I really don't think there is much difference between #3 and #25 this year. I think there are a few teams like OK State that are better than their ranking but have an L. SDSU probably isn't #22 (not that I watched them) but do have 2 P5 victories under their belt.
USF is either a top 10 team or a top 80 team depending on the quarter.
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Who would stick with their projections and who would change after 4 weeks?
Clemson thus far has not been over rated, but that could change.
I'm liking my NCSU pick for underrated. Washington was not so clear at this point.
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I'd stick with LSU for overrated.
Colorado didn't look very underrated on Saturday.
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Who would stick with their projections and who would change after 4 weeks?
I'll stick with USC as overrated. I'm swapping UNL for Iowa as under, which was my gut feeling in the first place.
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Michigan Florida
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
Ala2268 Michigan UCLA
Bamajoe PSU UGA
ELA LSU Colorado
In the under ranked category, basically only a few teams look possible right now:
NCSU
Wazzu
Miami
Colorado?
The rest I think are pretty much not looking good right now. Florida is still in the running also.
LSU is a solid one for over ranked. Ugh.
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I think Medina is in the lead now that UM lost. Wazzu right now looks good.
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I think we can officially close the book on Colorado being underrated.
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I think it is also safe to say at this point, barring a major collapse (ie.....losing...GASP.....2 games!), Clemson is avoiding the "Overrated" tag.
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Catsby is alive with FSU over rated and I already forgot (Miami) underrated.
Miami is the lowest ranked P5 undefeated team.
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Over ranked Florida State
Under ranked Georgia
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SUMMARY
TEAM OVER RANKED UNDER RANKED
CD Washington NCSU
Fearless Texas Tenn
LittlePig Michigan Florida
DevilFrog Clemson Stanford
Temp430 Michigan LSU
CatsbyAZ FSU Miami
Badger USC Nebraska
RTF Clemson Florida
Medina Michigan Wazzu
Beenthere Clemson Miami
Typhon Clemson BSU
Ala2268 Michigan UCLA
Bamajoe PSU UGA
ELA LSU Colorado
How is everyone doing now? Catsby looks pretty solid here. A few of us look pretty woeful. I am about middlin'.
No one picked Notre Dame either way, which is interesting.
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my texas over ranked pick looks great
my Tenn under ranked looks worse than terrible
middlin
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Pick one of each, and we'll see as the season progresses who does the best. I'm using the coaches poll, as they all are very similar. One choice for most over ranked and under ranked. You can pick a team ranked 20th as over ranked and we'll count it if they end up 30th or not even getting votes, and 10 spots or 13 spots etc.
TOP 25 TEAMS, WEEK 1
1Alabama
2Ohio State
3Florida State
4Southern California
5Clemson
6Penn State
7Washington
8Oklahoma
9Michigan
10Wisconsin
11Oklahoma State
12Louisiana State
13Auburn
14Stanford
15Georgia
16Florida
17Louisville
18Miami
19Kansas State
20West Virginia
21South Florida
22Virginia Tech
23Texas
24Tennessee
25Utah
The most over ranked team is FSU by a mile and then some though USC is in the general area also. Nobody else is really that far off, maybe Tennessee, but UGA appears to have been most under ranked. I told y'all.
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Oh, and Florida, bless my heart, as over ranked.
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LSU looked rock solid as a pick a month ago. Whoops.
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We are more likely to spot over ranked teams than under ranked teams, it would seem, and perhaps that is inherent.
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I'll picked Clemson as over-ranked because Watson was such a special player. (He is, he is on my FF team and is the number 2 ranked player overall.)
But the new Clemson QB seems pretty good as well, their only loss came on the game he got knocked out of.
I picked BSU as more of a numbers game, have a team go from others getting votes to ranked seem like a chance for the biggest jump, they just aren't that great.
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I'll picked Clemson as over-ranked because Watson was such a special player. (He is, he is on my FF team and is the number 2 ranked player overall.)
That sucks
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I figured Clemson for a 9-3 kind of year, which is still possibly, but they look more like 10-2 or 11-1 today of course. I agree about losing the QB and finding a pretty solid replacement.
Michigan looks worse than I figured, and I thought they were over hyped, but would be 9-3ish also, which means about 12th in the polls end of regular season.
NCSU was my pick for under ranked, and they still have a shot (Clemson this weekend). They are a decent squad but not great, and that early lose to USCe was bizarre.
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Yeah, I figured LSU was a 7-5 type team in a typical SEC, but the SEC has been WAY down this year. So I'll comfort myself in saying they aren't actually any better than I expected, the competition is simply worse.
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i had clemson as overrated. figured they'd drop 2 games and be in the 10-15 range. still might, but looking better than i thought.
had uf as under, and was way wrong.
also had mich as over ranked, hit on that one.
so i am 1-1-1 with clemson still hanging in balance. likely to be 1-2 by years end though, clemson looks like they'll finish strong.