CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 17, 2021, 12:13:57 AM
-
- Gerogia
- Bama
- Oregon
- Ohio State
- Cincinnati
- Michigan
- Michigan State
- Notre Dame
- Oklahoma State
- Wake
- Baylor
- Ole Miss
- Oklahoma
- BYU
- Wisconsin
- aTm
- Iowa
- Pitt
- SDSU
- NCST
- Arkansas
- UTSA
- Utah
- Houston
- MissSt
For the first time since the Oregon loss I am now confident that Ohio State controls their own CFP destiny. Winning out would mean beating the current #7 then the current #6, then probably the current #15 and clearly nobody behind the Buckeyes would jump them if they managed to accomplish that.
I believe that the following teams control their own destiny:
- #1 Georgia, obviously
- #2 Bama: If they win out they'll not only be in, they'll be #1
- #3 Oregon: The Oklahoma loss was a HUGE boost to Oregon because they no longer have to worry about being behind the B12 Champion so long as they win out. They would almost certainly be behind a 12-1 Michigan or Michigan State and possibly also a 12-1 Ohio State but it doesn't matter anymore because they'd still be in the top-4.
- #4 Ohio State: See above.
- #7 Michigan State: If they win out they'll obviously pass #4 Ohio State and they'll also leap-frog the Wolverines and Bearcats into the top-4.
IMHO, that is it. Everybody else needs help. What do they need?
- #5 Cincinnati: The Bearcats got help from Baylor but they still need more. The path is still narrow but it is becoming more plausible.
- #6 Michigan: I know it is hard to root for your rival but the Wolverines REALLY need an Ohio State win this weekend. With that they would take Michigan State's spot on the list of teams controlling their own destiny.
- #8 Notre Dame: I think Notre Dame needs everything that Cincinnati needs plus a Cincinnati loss so IMHO they are borderline hopeless.
- #9 OkSU: The Cowboys' best-case-scenario is 12-1 at B12 Champions with back-to-back wins over Oklahoma. IMHO that would get them ahead of the Irish, the Bearcats, and at least two out of the three B1G teams ahead of them but that only gets them to #5. They still need at least one more loss by somebody.
- #10 Wake: I think Wake needs everything that OkSU needs plus an OkSU loss and an OU loss.
- #13 Oklahoma: I think that the Sooners are in the same spot as OkSU.
Everybody else, IMHO, needs an incredibly implausible series of unlikely upsets.
-
I find it odd that Purdue rolled into the OSU game at 19, predictably lost, and suddenly dropped out.
I mean, did the committee think they were gonna win? If not, why rank them 19 before they step in front of the buzzsaw? If not, why is losing predictably going to have enough of an effect to drop them >6 spots out of the rankings?
Not that I think they should be ranked, but they're as worthy of being whatever they were ranked after the OSU game as before, because the result of that game gave no new information.
-
For the first time since the Oregon loss I am now confident that Ohio State controls their own CFP destiny. Winning out would mean beating the current #7 then the current #6, then probably the current #15 and clearly nobody behind the Buckeyes would jump them if they managed to accomplish that.
I disagree with the playoff rankings. Ohio State should jump Alabama and Oregon, or at least Alabama.
I would have
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama.
Georgia and Alabama will sort things out. If Georgia wins Alabama should be out. By ranking Alabama #2, the Committee is saying if Georgia wins by something less than a blowout, Alabama is in the CFP.
Ohio State's schedule is challenging. #7 MSU, #6 Mich., and #15 Wisconsin(?) It is a murderer's row. Control over destiny is a bit shaky.
What if Ohio State loses once to MSU, and Alabama loses only to Georgia, both close games? Cincy is in????
-
I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.
MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably Wisconsin to finish as 12-1 and as Big Ten champs.
Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.
That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings, but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get.
-
Another scenario I wonder about if OSU wins out and goes to the CFP, then who goes to the Rose Bowl for the Big Ten?
MSU 10-2. Losses to OSU, Purdue
Mich 10-2. Losses to OSU, MSU
Wisc 9-4. Losses to OSU, Mich, ND, PSU
Iowa 10-2 losses to Wisc, Purdue
You would have to think MSU would go based on h2h win over Mich, but what if the CFP comittee ends up ranking Mich above MSU? Would the Rose Bowl use that as justification to take Mich over MSU?
-
Ohio State's record if they win out would be impressive indeed. The one blemish was early and to another top team. I don't think it matters but if UGA loses I'd have them at the top spot. I don't necessarily agree with having a 12-1 UGA included in the CFP based on the eye test etc. They have defeated only one opponent on that list.
-
I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.
MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably Wisconsin to finish as 12-1 and as Big Ten champs.
Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.
That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings, but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get.
The committee has already said as is, UM is ahead of MSU. So if they win out, then going into the CCG, I would imagine it would be the same. But they have also consistently said they don't count conference championships until they happen. So my guess is that if then MSU won the CCG, they would jump UM. If they didn't, then they obviously wouldn't.
It would require some mental gymnastics to reward UM for not playing in a game that they didn't qualify for due to losing to MSU, but they have also pretty consistently not cared about that either.
-
I find it odd that Purdue rolled into the OSU game at 19, predictably lost, and suddenly dropped out.
I mean, did the committee think they were gonna win? If not, why rank them 19 before they step in front of the buzzsaw? If not, why is losing predictably going to have enough of an effect to drop them >6 spots out of the rankings?
Not that I think they should be ranked, but they're as worthy of being whatever they were ranked after the OSU game as before, because the result of that game gave no new information.
In general I agree with your post and not just in this situation but generally. Why does a team ranked around ~19 drop when they lose to a team ranked around ~4 in any poll. It should be expected so they should stand pat or even possibly move up if it is a close loss.
That said, to play devil's advocate, maybe it was because Purdue was never in the game. In the past the committee has talked about what they call "game control" and the first 20 minutes of the PU/tOSU game were just a disaster for Purdue. I don't expect ~19 to beat ~4 but I do expect them to present something of a challenge and in those first 20 minutes at least, Purdue looked more like some early-season body-bag opponent than a legitimate challenge.
FWIW:
I don't think that tOSU is as good nor Purdue as bad as it appeared in the first 20 minutes of the game but I also don't think that tOSU is as bad nor Purdue as good as it appeared for the last 40 minutes of the game.
-
I disagree with the playoff rankings. Ohio State should jump Alabama and Oregon, or at least Alabama.
I would have
1. Georgia
2. Ohio State
3. Oregon
4. Alabama.
Georgia and Alabama will sort things out. If Georgia wins Alabama should be out. By ranking Alabama #2, the Committee is saying if Georgia wins by something less than a blowout, Alabama is in the CFP.
Ohio State's schedule is challenging. #7 MSU, #6 Mich., and #15 Wisconsin(?) It is a murderer's row. Control over destiny is a bit shaky.
What if Ohio State loses once to MSU, and Alabama loses only to Georgia, both close games? Cincy is in????
I'm not sure that I'd have tOSU over Oregon and Bama yet because they do not yet have any wins over teams ranked by the CFP. They have a close loss to #3 and a bunch of strong wins over bad and mediocre teams. Now if tOSU, Oregon, and Bama all win out then it would be time to reconsider.
-
I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.
MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably Wisconsin to finish as 12-1 and as Big Ten champs.
Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.
That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings, but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get.
I think the extra piece of information I would need to sort this out is how their wins over tOSU looked. Assuming both were relatively equal I'd have MSU ahead of M even before the CG and after the CG it wouldn't even be a question. Now if MSU were to beat tOSU in OT while M blew the Buckeyes out that would be different. Even then though, once MSU picked up the CG win to move to 12-1 I assume that they would be higher than M almost no matter what.
-
Another scenario I wonder about if OSU wins out and goes to the CFP, then who goes to the Rose Bowl for the Big Ten?
MSU 10-2. Losses to OSU, Purdue
Mich 10-2. Losses to OSU, MSU
Wisc 9-4. Losses to OSU, Mich, ND, PSU
Iowa 10-2 losses to Wisc, Purdue
You would have to think MSU would go based on h2h win over Mich, but what if the CFP comittee ends up ranking Mich above MSU? Would the Rose Bowl use that as justification to take Mich over MSU?
In addition to the stated assumption that tOSU wins out, you are also assuming that:
- MSU beats PSU
- M beats UMD
- UW beats UNL
- UW beats MN
- IA beats IL
- IA beats UNL
None of those are guaranteed and really only M over UMD would even be a large favorite. Upsets in #1 and either #5 or #6 would pretty clearly knock MSU and IA out of the discussion and leave it simply between UW and M.
With all of your stated and unstated assumptions I honestly think it would likely come down to how close MSU, M, and UW's losses to tOSU were. The Buckeyes would be a top-4 and probably a top-2 team so if one of those three REALLY pushed them while the other two got blown off the field that just might be the difference.
Lets say that Michigan lost a heartbreaker to the Buckeyes in the final seconds or OT. They'd be 10-2 with two VERY close losses to two highly ranked teams. Meanwhile MSU would be 10-2 with a blowout to tOSU and a two-score loss to (currently) unranked PU. I'd rank Michigan ahead of MSU in that scenario and I think the committee would too.
-
It's funny how a blow out win over a ranked team can hurt the victor in rankings, relative to a decent but closer win.
Think about OSU's ranking if they beat UM 59-10, versus 45-31.
-
I am trying to imagine how the rankings work out if Mich St and Mich both win out.
MSU would win the Big Ten East tie-breaker and then win the CCG over probably Wisconsin to finish as 12-1 and as Big Ten champs.
Mich would be 11-1, would not be Big Ten champs and would have a h2h loss to MSU.
That should be enough to put MSU ahead of Mich in the rankings, but the CFP commitee can use weird logic sometimes to justify ranking 1 team over another that I don't always get.
I think the conference championship would get MSU the nod over UM. The committee has shown that they assign some weight to a conference championship, and I think that would overcome the "worse loss" metric.
In general I agree with your post and not just in this situation but generally. Why does a team ranked around ~19 drop when they lose to a team ranked around ~4 in any poll. It should be expected so they should stand pat or even possibly move up if it is a close loss.
That said, to play devil's advocate, maybe it was because Purdue was never in the game. In the past the committee has talked about what they call "game control" and the first 20 minutes of the PU/tOSU game were just a disaster for Purdue. I don't expect ~19 to beat ~4 but I do expect them to present something of a challenge and in those first 20 minutes at least, Purdue looked more like some early-season body-bag opponent than a legitimate challenge.
FWIW:
I don't think that tOSU is as good nor Purdue as bad as it appeared in the first 20 minutes of the game but I also don't think that tOSU is as bad nor Purdue as good as it appeared for the last 40 minutes of the game.
That's fair. And it was a 28-point loss, not what you'd call close.
I kinda feel like the committee made their own bed with that one, though. They knew the schedule. They knew Purdue hasn't won in Columbus since before the Model-T was introduced. They should have known a blowout loss was a strong possibility. It would have been smarter to sneak Purdue barely into the rankings at say 23-24th instead of putting them all the way up at 19th and then having to drop them out completely the very next week.
-
it's simple, the committee looks at number of losses
when Purdue added an additional loss, it didn't matter if it was vs a top 4 team, it was just another loss
-
Logically, one would expect a 7-3 team ranked say 15th to move UP if they lose a close road game against #2. I've seen it happen, but very rarely.
Usually, as noted, it starts with number of losses, any team with 4 isn't going to get considered, generally, at this point. Unless they are in the SEC.
-
I'm not sure that I'd have tOSU over Oregon and Bama yet because they do not yet have any wins over teams ranked by the CFP. They have a close loss to #3 and a bunch of strong wins over bad and mediocre teams. Now if tOSU, Oregon, and Bama all win out then it would be time to reconsider.
bama is either going to be out or #1, depending on if they win out and beat uga. if they don't do both of those, they're out without some major major chaos. if they do win out and beat uga, i think they'll just flip them 1/2.jmo
-
it's simple, the committee looks at number of losses
when Purdue added an additional loss, it didn't matter if it was vs a top 4 team, it was just another loss
Unfortunately there is too much of this.
-
bama is either going to be out or #1, depending on if they win out and beat uga. if they don't do both of those, they're out without some major major chaos. if they do win out and beat uga, i think they'll just flip them 1/2.jmo
Most people seem to be assuming that Bama at 11-2 is a lock to be in and while I don't agree, I think you are going too far the other way in saying that they are a lock to be out at 11-2.
IMHO, if Bama finishes 11-2 with a loss to UGA in the SECCG they will probably get in but I could imagine a scenario where they missed the cut. They'd obviously be behind Georgia and I think they'd also pretty clearly be behind any potential 12-1 B1G Champion (tOSU, M, or MSU). There is also a good chance that they'd be behind a 12-1 Oregon with a P12 Championship and a "signature" win over tOSU but that might depend on how well tOSU finishes.
After that it gets questionable. I'd put them in over a potential 13-0 Cincinnati but then I'd probably put more than half of the SEC in over Cincinnati because I'd rather see good teams than tall midgets. A lot of people disagree. It might be a close call compared to a 12-1 ACC or B12 Champion.
-
it's simple, the committee looks at number of losses
when Purdue added an additional loss, it didn't matter if it was vs a top 4 team, it was just another loss
I thought the entire purpose of the committee was that we were going to have "top men" working on this... Not idiot polls that just rank them by number of losses...
(https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/top_men_indiana_jones.gif)
-
I thought the entire purpose of the committee was that we were going to have "top men" working on this... Not idiot polls that just rank them by number of losses...
(https://www.reactiongifs.us/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/top_men_indiana_jones.gif)
I think the reason was margin of victory. I remember in 2014, the Buckeyes won 31-24 against Minnesota, who was ranked #25. Their ranking remained the same, as it was a competitive game.
-
I bet if we took a ranking poll around here we'd get about the same ranking.
-
I bet if we took a ranking poll around here we'd get about the same ranking.
Yup.
-
yup, number of losses is a tough data point to ignore or overcome
it may be easy to say Nebraska is the best 3-7 team in the country, but they're not going to be ranked in the top 40
-
Humans rank the same way, with different weightings. Your first cut is number of losses. Then you look at each loss and each significant win and throw the dice. One 4 loss team is ranked, 25th, nobody is in the AP or Coaches. And these three polls are pretty much the same, and much the same as a poll we conducted around here.
The only "different" way of doing it would be a theoretical odds poll, based on who would be favored over who, and there would be some syllogistic issues with that.