CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 08, 2021, 12:54:50 PM
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First, UMD, RU, and IU are all mathematically eliminated because they each have at least four losses and tOSU can do no worse than 6-3.
Second, Penn State IS mathematically still in the B1GCG race but BARELY. The best they could do is a 4-way tie at 6-3 with the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines but they WOULD win that tie. Here is everything that would need to happen to get there, then the tiebreaker that PSU would win:
What would need to happen:
- PSU would need to win out (vsM, vsRU, @MSU)
- tOSU would need to lose out (vsPU, vsMSU, @M)
- MSU would need to lose their other game (vsUMD)
- M would need to lose their other game (@UMD)
In that case PSU, tOSU, MSU, and M would all finish 6-3 in conference and the first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H where it would be:
- 2-1 PSU (beat MSU/M, lost to tOSU)
- 2-1 MSU (beat M/tOSU, lost to PSU)
- 1-2 tOSU (beat PSU, lost to MSU/M)
- 1-2 M (beat tOSU, lost to PSU/MSU)
The rules state that if only two teams are left after any tiebreaker, those two teams revert to the two-team H2H tiebreaker. Thus, once tOSU and M were eliminated on the 4-way H2H2H2H, the Spartans and Nittany Lions would revert to their H2H were PSU would win.
Thus, PSU would win a 4-way B1G-E tie at 6-3.
Penn State's mathematical chance is obviously an EXTREMELY minute chance realistically because they need a specific result in each of a multitude of games. Even if each one was individually fairly likely, the chances of all of them are remote.
That leaves the three serious contenders:
- 6-0 Ohio State: Controls their own destiny.
- 5-1 Michigan State: Controls their own destiny but has MUCH less margin for error than they had last week.
- 5-1 Michigan: Needs help but is in a lot better shape than they were last week. All they need is one MSU loss and they regain control of their own B1GCG (and probably CFP) destiny.
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First, UMD, RU, and IU are all mathematically eliminated because they each have at least four losses and tOSU can do no worse than 6-3.
Second, Penn State IS mathematically still in the B1GCG race but BARELY. The best they could do is a 4-way tie at 6-3 with the Buckeyes, Spartans, and Wolverines but they WOULD win that tie. Here is everything that would need to happen to get there, then the tiebreaker that PSU would win:
What would need to happen:
- PSU would need to win out (vsM, vsRU, @MSU)
- tOSU would need to lose out (vsPU, vsMSU, @M)
- MSU would need to lose their other game (vsUMD)
- M would need to lose their other game (@UMD)
In that case PSU, tOSU, MSU, and M would all finish 6-3 in conference and the first tiebreaker is H2H2H2H where it would be:
- 2-1 PSU (beat MSU/M, lost to tOSU)
- 2-1 MSU (beat M/tOSU, lost to PSU)
- 1-2 tOSU (beat PSU, lost to MSU/M)
- 1-2 M (beat tOSU, lost to PSU/MSU)
The rules state that if only two teams are left after any tiebreaker, those two teams revert to the two-team H2H tiebreaker. Thus, once tOSU and M were eliminated on the 4-way H2H2H2H, the Spartans and Nittany Lions would revert to their H2H were PSU would win.
Thus, PSU would win a 4-way B1G-E tie at 6-3.
Penn State's mathematical chance is obviously an EXTREMELY minute chance realistically because they need a specific result in each of a multitude of games. Even if each one was individually fairly likely, the chances of all of them are remote.
That leaves the three serious contenders:
- 6-0 Ohio State: Controls their own destiny.
- 5-1 Michigan State: Controls their own destiny but has MUCH less margin for error than they had last week.
- 5-1 Michigan: Needs help but is in a lot better shape than they were last week. All they need is one MSU loss and they regain control of their own B1GCG (and probably CFP) destiny.
Dang, Penn St needed four things to happen, and three of them went the other way this weekend. :-[