CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2021, 12:06:06 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-6-24301/).
Votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 13 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/GGY1yKd.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/7xlfI7N.png)
Schedule/performance table:
(https://i.imgur.com/l6VsQV7.png)
GOTY progression:
- Preseason: #1 tOSU vs #2 UW not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 1: #1 tOSU vs #2 PSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 2: #1 Iowa vs #2 PSU 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 3: #1 PSU vs #2 Iowa 10/9 in Iowa City
- Week 4: #1 PSU at #2 tOSU 10/30 in Columbus
- Week 5: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 6: #1 Iowa vs #2 tOSU not scheduled, maybe B1GCG
- Week 7: #1 tOSU at #2 M 11/27 in Ann Arbor
COTY progression:
- Tucker with Locksley and Schiano chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker with Schiano and Ferentz chasing
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Schiano and Locksley well behind
- Tucker all alone with Frost and Ferentz well behind
- Tucker with an ENORMOUS lead, Brohm and Harbaugh well behind
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Sure seems like a lot of teams have bye weeks this last week or else this upcoming week. Then a lot of big games coming on Oct-30, including PSU- OSU, Mich-MSU, and Iowa- Wisc.
1. OSU - seems to be getting better while other teams below them are struggling to eak out wins. OSU plays at Ind this week, then hosts a big game against PSU.
2. MSU - wins a tough one on the road at Ind. Gets a bye week before big game with Mich
3. Mich - gets a tune up against NW before big game against MSU
4. PSU - a lot going forward will depend on health of Clifford. PSU hosts ILL then plays big game at OSU.
5. Iowa - Jeff Brohm, David Bell and Purdue just seem to know how to exploit all of Iowa's weaknesses, but this is still the Iowa team that beat Ind, ISU, MD, and PSU. I would still consider Iowa the favorite in the West but the margin is much, much smaller now. Iowa gets the bye week now they wish they would have got thie week.before. Then Iowa plays big game at Wisc
6. Minn - Good Minnesota showed up the last 2 weeks, and now must be considered a serious threat to win the West. But this is also the team that lost to Bowling Green.
7. Wisc - has not looked great but the West is still there for the taking if they can find some offense. Interesting tests coming up against Purdue and Iowa in next 2 weeks.
8. Purdue - is the potential sleeper waking up or does Purdue only wake up against Iowa? Interesting tests coming up agsinst Wisc and Neb
9. Nebraska, - the little engine that could not. Poor little Scott Friost just can't get over that hump. Neb has bye week then plays Purdue.
10. Ind - I guess Ind is not going to win many games this year, but they are trying really, really hard.
11. MD - Cheer up, you did not get blown out this week
12. NW. - this is the time of year where NW usually starts to play pretty decent. Could they be a contender in the West?
13. Rut. - what can you say? You lost to NW by 2 TD's.
14. ILL. - Back in your comfortable spot at #14 again. ILL will have some opportunities to play spoiler in the 2nd half of the season.
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1. Penn State: Clifford's health is unclear, but PSU has been the most consistent team on both sides of the ball.
2. Ohio State: Certainly improved from the Oregon game, but also has yet to face a competent outfit since the Oregon game.
3. Michigan: Sprightly on both sides of the ball, but not sure how they look when facing a good team.
4. Iowa: The offense sucked, but we always knew that. More surprising is the defense sucked, too. They need to get healthy on the back end.
5. MSU: Pulled out a tough one, get a week off, then play a big one.
6. Minnesota: Yeah, I guess. That loss to BG is still in the air, but they have a complete team.
7. Purdue: Heck of a nice win - makes you wonder why they don't look that competent on a week to week basis.
8. Wisconsin: Every time I watch this team I get less inspired.
9. Nebraska: This team is what they are - good enough to lose.
10. Indiana: Showed spirit, but also they still have Nick Sheridan as OC.
11. Maryland: We'll see if they can get turned around.
12. Northwestern: Got a win and looked competent.
13. Illinois: Yeah, sure.
14. Rutgers: Splat. About as bad as you can be since that nice effort against Michigan.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Maryland
12. Illinois
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan
3. Michigan State
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Minnesota
7. Wisconsin
8. Purdue
9. Nebraska
10. Indiana
11. Northwestern
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutger
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Contenders:
1) Ohio State - defense is getting to average level- which is all they need with that offense. They can score points on literally anyone. Best offense in America? I think so.
2) Penn State - caveat here - they are #2 with a healthy Clifford. Unhealthy Clifford- they drop to #4, Mich bumps to 2 and MSU bumps to 3.
3) Michigan - bye week. Need to see more out of the passing game. JJ McCarthy, please?
4) Michigan State - ugly win but they got the W. Offense was really bad- but their defense showed up and got them the W. Watched the entire game- and this felt like a game that MSU probably could've or even should've lost- but they found a way to get the W on the road- and that's what good teams do- find ways to win.
5) Iowa - my god does their offense suck. Still top notch D- but that D looks super susceptible to passing game that spreads it out- OSU would drop 50 on them imo.
Could sneak into winning the West:
6) Minnesota - by default.
7) Purdue - impressive domination of Iowa in Kinnick moves them up a couple notches.
Not quite there:
8) Wisconsin - hell of a defense. still need to figure out that offense.
9) Nebraska - best 5 loss team in America? they just find all kind of ways to lose close games.
10) Indiana - scrappy team but their backup QB starting for Penix might be worst starting QB in conference.
These teams suck:
11) Illinois
12) Maryland
13) Northwestern
14) Rutger
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My favorite part of the board during football season.
(https://i.imgur.com/Lqcohbv.png)
The Top 3 did not play Saturday.
Iowa: Ahhh, the headlines from a week earlier, and the #2 ranking were so promising. But, Iowa left little doubt - it was on a bender. Iowa's offense which was already in crumbs, crumbled into corn dust. The vaunted defense became the sieve defense. The somewhat meaningless 24-points or below streak allowed by the defense continues after a Purdue player dropped the ball when he knew he couldn't get in, but was tryin' like hell, near the pylon. Iowa gets a touchback and opportunity to get back in the game late, and the offense was offal and offensive to all five senses. (I have more senses than five but these are the ones generally recognized, and my other senses were offended, too).
Michigan State: Struggled, but won. I suspect Indiana's Tuttle is better than Penix, as Penix lost confidence, and perhaps more as a result of his injury. Indiana will now be a middling team.
Purdue: Loves to play Iowa. Anytime, any place.
Minnesota: Bursts the fantasy of Scott Frost leading the Cornhuskers out of the depths of darkness, and restores the Cornhuskers to the depths of darkness. Minnesota appears to have a helluva an offensive line. Anybody can look like a Heisman Trophy candidate in their backfield. If only their backs could avoid injury.
Northwestern: Surprised me. Northwestern has good football coaching. Fitz could not be wooed by the Packers. He was not wooed by 'da Bears. When he has his new stadium, the rest of the conference should be concerned. There is something about getting free tuition for scholarship players at a school where the tuition is $55,000 per year. It is the most valuable athletic scholarship in the Big Ten.
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1. Ohio State
2. Michigan State
3. Michigan
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Wisconsin
7. Minnesota
8. Nebraska
9. Purdue
10. Indiana
11. Maryland
12. Illinois
13. Northwestern
14. Rutgers
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1) Michigan
2) OSU
3) Iowa
4) PSU
5) MSU
6) Minnesota
7) Wisconsin
8) Purdue
9) Northwestern
10 Maryland
11 Indiana
12 Nebraska
13 Rutgers
14 Illinois
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Michigan State
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Purdue
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Northwestern
- Rutgers
- Illinois
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Michigan State
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Purdue
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Maryland
- Indiana
- Northwestern
- Rutgers
- Illinois
Is this the first time you have ever ranked by team name rather than mascot?
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1,1,1,1,1 Looked dominant three weeks in a row then took a week off. Will the week off kill momentum or allow them to shore up any lingering issues?
- Michigan - 3,3,3,3,5,5,5 Took the week off.
- Penn State - 4,4,2,2,2,2,3 Took the week off, hopefully Clifford is back.
- Iowa - 2,2,4,5,4,4,4 Just when I started to believe . . .
- Wisconsin - 5,5,7,4,3,3,2 Army is a good team, I still think UW is right behind tier-1. Yes, the Badgers are 1-2 in the league and 3-3 overall but the three teams they lost to are highly ranked and two of the three losses were competitive well into the second half. Wisconsin isn't a bad team they just aren't as good as we expected and they've played a brutal schedule.
- Michigan State - 6,6,8,7,9,9,11 Most everybody has them top-5 and this isn't anything against MSU, I just think (see above) that people and computers are underrating Wisconsin.
- Minnesota - 10,10,9,6,8,6,7 That was impressive.
- Purdue - 12,12,11,11,11,11,10 Spoilermakers! I really don't think that Purdue has the capacity to keep up anything close to that level of play week-after-week so I don't think they are a serious threat to win the B1G-W but they pull upsets like magicians pull rabbits out of hats.
- Maryland - 8,8,5,8,6,7,12 Took the week off.
- Nebraska - 7,7,12,12,14,14,9 Just when I started to believe that they had turned a corner and were ready to finish strong . . .
- Indiana - 11,11,10,10,10,10,6 What a difference a year makes.
- Illinois - 13,13,13,13,13,13,14 Took the week off.
- Northwestern - 14,14,14,14,12,12,8 "Worst in the B1G and it isn't close." Me, last week. Ok, maybe not. Fitz being Fitz?
- Rutgers - 9,9,6,9,7,8,13 Welp, ouch.
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As the Buckeyes were off this weekend, I had made other plans and did not get to watch many of the games that I otherwise would have been at least turning to off and on. I did get to see a lot of the Iowa/Purdue matchup and some parts of other games. So I'm not sure I am qualified to give a ranking, but I will try anyway.
- Ohio State - Bye week
- Penn State - Bye week
- Iowa - Ran into a buzz saw that may have exposed Iowa's offense. I still believe that they are better than the teams below them.
- Michigan - Bye week
- Michigan State - A little more trouble with Indiana than a top 10 team should have. But found a way to win. Offense did not look good.
- Wisconsin - Didn't see the game, but the final score looks like it may have been a close game. I know Army can slow down better teams, just curious of how this one played out.
- Purdue - Came to play Saturday. This looks like the Purdue that had a chance to beat Notre Dame. If they continue to play like this, they could move up on this list.
- Minnesota - Not sure that Minnesota won or Nebraska just gave it to them. But at the end of the game, they had more points so they are here.
- Nebraska - Just when it looked like Frost had his team ready to compete, they pee down their leg. Even with all of the miscues, they still had chances to win this game. When will they decide to put it all together?
- Maryland - Bye week
- Indiana - Put up a fight against Sparty, but too many mistakes cost them. Defense looked pretty good.
- Northwestern - Didn't see the game but it appears that Rutgets is just what the Dr ordered.
- Rutgers - It appears that Rutgers is again a team to play when things are not going well.
- Illinois - Bye week
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Rankings preview with the 11 who have voted so far (through @NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40) ):
- 1.18 tOSU: (nearly unanimous and the highest our #1 has been since tOSU was unanimous after week 1)
- 2.64 M: Their highest ranking this year but #2 is very much in dispute.
- 3.27 PSU
- 3.91 MSU
- 4.09 Iowa: Note that #2 M and #5 IA are closer to each other than they are #1 and #6 respectively.
- 6.55 UW
- 6.91 MN
- 7.82 PU
- 9.27 UNL
- 10.09 IU
- 10.82 UMD
- 12.00 NU: Big jump for the Cats after spending two weeks in the cellar.
- 12.91 IL
- 13.55 RU: Huge drop for the Scarlet Knights but that is what happens when you lose badly to #14.
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Look at C.J. Stroud and Graham Mertz on this graph
https://twitter.com/CFBNumbers/status/1450149661046624258?t=67ggIKKBLd0E6RefQ7O33Q&s=19
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1) Ohio State - BYE
2) Penn State - BYE
3) Michigan - BYE
4) Iowa - Don't want to drop them too far. It was a bad game, but this is probably still the best team in the West
5) Michigan State - I know what the spread was, but I would've expected them to win more comfortably
6) Minnesota - Plays great against any team outside the state of Ohio.
7) Purdue - They got their splashy Spoiler upset. Now they usually follow it up by falling on their face. Let's see.
8) Wisconsin - Still has a chance to get their season turned around.
9) Nebraska - Not a good time for a dud from Martinez.
10) Indiana - Defense looks reasonable. Offense is rough.
11) Maryland - BYE
12) Northwestern - Got a little spark, and maybe can be a threat in the West?
13) Illinois - BYE
14) Rutger - That was just completely pathetic. Where is the team that beat Syracuse and challenged Michigan?
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Last week in parenthesis
- PENN STATE (2) - depending on Clifford being healthy
- OHIO STATE (3) - if Clifford isn't healthy, they are #1
- MICHIGAN (4) - essentially getting a second consecutive bye week
- IOWA (1) - in West Lafayette? Sure. In Iowa City? Yuck
- MICHIGAN STATE (5) - dependence on explosive plays from the offense is a bit concerning
- PURDUE (12) - big matchup in West Lafayette this week to determine the leader of the middle pack
- WISCONSIN (7) - almost respected the troops too much
- INDIANA (10) - 4 losses, to 4 top 10 teams
- MINNESOTA (11) - Minnesota and Nebraska seem like the same team to me...
- NEBRASKA (6) - ...except Minnesota beat them
- MARYLAND (8) - bye week
- NORTHWESTERN (14) - traditional October Fitz turnaround coming a couple weeks late
- RUTGERS (9) - and Rutgers is back
- ILLINOIS (13) - finding a way to deflect blame during a bye week might be the most Bert thing ever
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Results posted, votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 13 voters.
Here are the things that at least half of us agree on:
- 10/13 that tOSU is #1
- 8/13 that M is #3
- 8/13 that IA is #4
- 7/13 that UNL is #9
- 7/13 that IU is #10
- 7/13 that UMD is #11
- 7/13 that NU is #12
- 7/13 that RU is #14
That situation for #2-#5 is interesting. Michigan is #2 but they actually have less #1 votes and less #2 votes than PSU (2-1 and 4-3). Michigan is ahead of PSU because the Nittany Lions also have more #4 and #5 votes (2-1 and 3-0).
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Sorry, I'm late this week.
1) Ohio State (1)
2) Penn State (2)
3) Michigan (4)
4) Iowa (3)
5) Michigan State (5)
6) Wisconsin (6)
7) Maryland (8)
8) Minnesota (10)
9) Purdue (12)
10) Nebraska (7)
11) Indiana (11)
12) Northwestern (14)
13) Rutgers (9)
14) Illinois (13)
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Sorry, I'm late this week.
NP. I added this vote. The only change is that it breaks the IA/MSU tie in favor of Iowa so now Iowa is #4 and MSU is #5 instead of them being tied for 4/5.
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1) Michigan
2) MSU
3) Iowa
4) PSU
5) OSU
6) Purdue
7) Wisconsin
8) Maryland
9) Indiana
10) Minnesota
11) Nebraska
12) Northwestern
13) Rutgers
14) Illinois
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Look at C.J. Stroud and Graham Mertz on this graph
https://twitter.com/CFBNumbers/status/1450149661046624258?t=67ggIKKBLd0E6RefQ7O33Q&s=19
CJ Stroud is really good at football. Graham Mertz, not so much.
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NP. I added this vote. The only change is that it breaks the IA/MSU tie in favor of Iowa so now Iowa is #4 and MSU is #5 instead of them being tied for 4/5.
and then:
2) MSU
3) Iowa
So Iowa and MSU are back to being tied for 4/5. Ie, no changes since I posted results.
Curiously the two late voters are very high on Maryland:
8) Maryland
7) Maryland (8)
Previously Maryland's highest vote was #9 (by me) and everybody else had them #10 or worse.
Also @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) 's #5 vote for Ohio State is obviously the biggest outlier vote of the week. Everybody else has them #1 or #2. @Benthere2 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=36) has them behind Michigan while @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) have them behind Penn State. Ty has them behind those two along with Iowa and Michigan State.
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Iowa's three point home win over PSU is the only H2H match-up among the top-5 so here is a comparison of the top-5 by common opponent:
- Against #6 UW: M>PSU: Michigan won by 21, PSU by 6 both on the road.
- Against #9 UNL: M>MSU: Michigan won by a FG on the road, MSU in OT at home.
- Against #10 IU: IA>PSU>MSU: Iowa won by 28 at home, PSU by 24 at home, MSU by 5 on the road.
- Against #11 UMD: tOSU>IA: tOSU won by 49 at home, IA by 37 on the road.
- Against #14 RU: tOSU>MSU>M: tOSU and MSU won by 39 and 18 respectively, both on the road, M won by 7 at home.
Based on that, maybe Iowa should be a touch higher and Penn State a touch lower. The five teams:
#1 Ohio State:
Has been the best of the bunch against both of the common opponents that they have played but those are two of the worst four teams in the league so we probably shouldn't read too much into it.
#2 Michigan:
They were better than PSU against UW and better than MSU against UNL but they were the worst by far (behind tOSU and MSU) against RU.
#3 Penn State:
Worse than M against UW, worse than IA against IU, better than MSU against IU.
#4/5 tie Iowa:
Better than PSU and MSU against IU, not as good as tOSU against UMD. The UMD result should probably be ignored because both Iowa and tOSU blew them out and the difference between a 37 and a 49 point blowout is probably not indicative of much.
#4/5 Michigan State:
Not as good as M against UNL but better than M against RU. Worse than both IA and PSU against IU and not as good as tOSU against RU.
Upcoming common opponents to be added:
- tOSU plays IU this weekend. The Hawkeyes, Nitts, and Spartans beat them by 28, 24, and 5 respectively.
- M plays NU this weekend, MSU beat them by 17.
- PSU plays IL this weekend but none of the top-5 have played them yet.
- Iowa is off this weekend.
- MSU is off this weekend.
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The 17-pt loss by Iowa to Purdue seems to be big anomaly for Iowa. Iowa's first lost by 2 scores since losing 38-14 to Wisconsin in 2017!
The interesting thing about that loss to Wisconsin in 2017, it came one week after Iowa's big 55-24 win over Ohio State in Iowa City. The following week the Iowa offense could do absolutely nothing against Wiscsonson, its 2 TD's coming from, let me know if this sounds familiar, 2 pick-6's from Iowa's star CB, Josh Jackson.
I guess maybe the Purdue game could be a start of a new trend for Iowa, but Idon't think so. NOW I don't believe Iowa is going to win another 12 games in row, but I think Iowa will find enough offense to go 10-2 and probably still win the West.
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First Nebraska was at the bottom after a close loss to the Illini.
Then they moved to the top of the scrap heap, in large part because of close losses to Oklahoma, MSU and Michigan.
Now they are back towards the bottom after a close loss to the Gophers.
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Also @TyphonInc (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=8) 's #5 vote for Ohio State is obviously the biggest outlier vote of the week. Everybody else has them #1 or #2. @Benthere2 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=36) has them behind Michigan while @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572) and @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) have them behind Penn State. Ty has them behind those two along with Iowa and Michigan State.
I have a feast/famine mentality with the Buckeyes. Famine - Seeing how pedestrian the offense was against any D with a pulse, and how abysmal the defense has been the last two years when facing any star.
Feast - And then how OSU plays against lesser opponents, OSU's second team can rack up garbage points and everyone thinks they are a CFP team again.
I'm truly worried about this Bloomington game coming up. Even without Penix, I can see this being a one score game in the 4th.
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Composite computer rankings - 80 computers (last week in parentheses)
- Georgia (1)
- Cincinnati (4)
- MICHIGAN (3)
- Alabama (6)
- Oklahoma (7)
- IOWA (2)
- PENN STATE (8)
- OHIO STATE (5)
- Oklahoma State (11)
- MICHIGAN STATE (9)
- Notre Dame (10)
- Ole Miss (16)
- Kentucky (12)
- Baylor (20)
- Wake Forest (15)
- Auburn (-)
- Pittsburgh (21)
- NC State (-)
- Texas (13)
- Texas A&M (25)
- Iowa State (-)
- Oregon (19)
- Clemson (24)
- Coastal Carolina (23)
- Utah (-)
- 26. Purdue (61)
- 36. Wisconsin (38)
- 38. Minnesota (58)
- 53. Nebraska (47)
- 55. Maryland (48)
- 62. Indiana (64)
- 71. Rutgers (49)
- 82. Northwestern (91)
- 92. Illinois (93)
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I have a feast/famine mentality with the Buckeyes. Famine - Seeing how pedestrian the offense was against any D with a pulse, and how abysmal the defense has been the last two years when facing any star.
Feast - And then how OSU plays against lesser opponents, OSU's second team can rack up garbage points and everyone thinks they are a CFP team again.
I'm truly worried about this Bloomington game coming up. Even without Penix, I can see this being a one score game in the 4th.
The sky is falling!