It was Rutgers' season opening win in East Lansing last year that changed the narrative around Rutgers football. The bar was so low that the narrative continues, even though since then the Scarlet Knights have lost 8 of 10 Big Ten games; and haven't won a game against a bowl eligible conference opponent since 2017 Purdue, and haven't beat a .500 conference team since 2014 4-4 Maryland. That should tell you something about the Chris Ash era, that Greg Schiano is being applauded for getting Rutgers back to the Kyle Flood era of just regular bad. Occasionally beating other bad teams, and not always getting blown out by good ones. Is Michigan State good? Probably. How good? Unclear. They have answered every question that has been asked, but it's unclear how difficult the questions have been. The next question might be less about the opponent, and more about the Spartans. Michigan State survived the loss of Drew Beasley, arguably their best defensive lineman, to an injury in the Nebraska game. Now they need to also deal with the loss of clearly their best linebacker, Cal Haladay, who is suspended for the first half, due to a second half targeting against Western Kentucky. It certainly makes the decision of Chase Kline, Michigan State's best, and most played, reserve linebacker, after the Nebraska game, loom larger. This bumps Michigan transfer Ben VanSummeran, true freshman Ma'a Gaoteote, and 6th year senior Noah Harvey into prime roles. Can Noah Vedral take advantage of a suspect Spartan secondary (points for onomotopoeia?) which has given up a ton of yardage, but relied on (a) turnovers; (b) avoiding big plays; and (c) waiting for the front seven to make a play to put the opposition behind the sticks. After getting exploited by both Northwestern and Miami, defensive Scottie Hazelton has leaned heavily into a bend but don't break, which would rival anything you see in the NFL on Sundays. That's how you get a defense that is 12th in the Big Ten in total defense, but 7th in scoring defense. If Rutgers can hit the big plays that nobody since Northwestern has, I think they can pull this upset. Since 2009, Rutgers has exactly one win against a Power 5 team that finished with fewer than 6 losses. That being over an 8-5 Syracuse team in 2012. Winning here (assuming MSU doesn't lose out) would be Rutgers' best win in 9 years. |