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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 06:16:00 AM

Title: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 06:16:00 AM

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#13Arkansas (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/8/arkansas-razorbacks)		(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/145.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/145/ole-miss-rebels)
#17Ole Miss (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/145/ole-miss-rebels)		12:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282100)(https://a.espncdn.com/redesign/assets/img/logos/networks/espn-red@2x.png) (https://www.espn.com/watch/)Tickets as low as $54 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/ole-miss-rebels-tickets/ole-miss-10-9-3561064.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, Oxford, MS
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#20Florida (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/57/florida-gators)		12:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282098)(https://a.espncdn.com/redesign/assets/img/logos/networks/espn-sec@2x.png) (http://www.secnetwork.com/)Tickets as low as $26 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/florida-gators-tickets/florida-10-9-3561072.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, FL
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Tennessee (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2633/tennessee-volunteers)		12:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282102)(https://a.espncdn.com/redesign/assets/img/logos/networks/espn-2@2x.png) (https://www.espn.com/watch/)Tickets as low as $48 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/tennessee-vols-tickets/tennessee-10-9-3561097.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN
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Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 06:20:08 AM
Yes, sex is German for six.  Anyway, another good slate overall.  Arky and Ole Miss will be trying to regain their footing, that one is a tough call.  LSU at UK is interesting, UK is undefeated and off a huge win, LSU is languishing off a bad home loss where they lost a lead.  USCe at Tenn is interesting, the Vols showed some life Saturday, and I think will prevail and get enthusiasm up in Kville, for a bit.

And UGA has had odd things happen at Auburn in years past.  Another ranked opponent for the Dawgs and on the road against a team with a mobile QB who can be very up and down.  The good news for the Dawgs is that defense usually shows up no matter the situation, I expect a fairly low scoring game.  A question is whethere QB JT Daniels is healthy enough to go, a strained lat is not a quick healer.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 04, 2021, 06:44:19 AM
It’s looking grim in Aggieland. We’re looking straight down the barrel of our third straight loss. Considering how badly we’ve lost to Alabama with even our good teams I’m thinking this is going to be much worse. Like 55-3 kind of game. 

Our offense is just in shambles. The only way we’re going to win is if our defense manages to grab a few turnovers and we hit a couple of lucky downfield shots. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 07:05:54 AM
Alabama is obviously not the opponent you would like after a rough loss, even at home.  I didn't even mention that game because it looks so horrible, to me, as a mismatch, but perhaps, at home, you never know.  Bama should be feeling large in their britches right now, for good reason.

I'll guess 37-17, my guesses being epically bad this season.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 07:10:16 AM
Ole Miss 31  Arky 23
Bama 37  A&M 17
Tenn 34  USCe 20

UGA 26  Auburn 17
LSU 26  UK 16
Mizzou 34  Directional texas 16

Florida 47  Vandy 10
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: bamajoe on October 04, 2021, 08:44:57 AM
I agree with all your picks except I think Kentucky beats LSU by two tds. LSU is emotionally dead and Kentucky is very confident. Will Orgeron last the season out? I doubt it.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 08:56:11 AM
Yeah, that pick is "unusual".  It's sort of my thinking that a decent team gets ahead of itself and the Big Head and loses one it shouldn't.

And my picks this year have been epically poor.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 09:04:40 AM
Early impressions of every SEC game in Week 6 (saturdaydownsouth.com) (https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/week6-early-impressions-2021/)
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 11:49:13 AM
Quote from: bamajoe on October 04, 2021, 08:44:57 AM
I agree with all your picks except I think Kentucky beats LSU by two tds. LSU is emotionally dead and Kentucky is very confident. Will Orgeron last the season out? I doubt it.

Orgeron will last the season because there's nobody on staff to replace him with.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 11:54:29 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 07:10:16 AM
Ole Miss 31  Arky 23        Maybe
Bama 37  A&M 17            More lopsided
Tenn 34  USCe 20            Maybe

UGA 26  Auburn 17          More lopsided
LSU 26  UK 16                 Probably not
Mizzou 34  Directional texas 16   Yes

Florida 47  Vandy 10        Yes

Re: LSU/UK, I still can't pick a team that can't run the ball.  They've now gone from "can't" to "won't try."  You don't get by in this sport being one-dimensional.  I understand Kentucky can play some defense.  Don't know how much they'll score on LSU, the defense is improving in incremental steps.  

ftr, LSU had 32 yards rushing vs. AU.  -6 at the half.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 11:57:47 AM
Not running is of course a death sentence in the SEC unless you are Leach.  I just get a sense of UK having seen them get a gaudy showing started and then laying a fat egg
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 12:24:59 PM
Also, re:  Orgeron, there's the matter of his buyout, which is 70% of what's left on his contract.  Currently $21 million.  That's not something LSU can easily swallow right now. 

But his personal douchery is going to factor into his situation.  There is a certain amount of that they'll put up with when you're winning.  When you constantly embarrass yourself and the university, the leash is much shorter when you have nothing on the field to help your case. 

We joke about shadowy men in smoke-filled rooms secretly pulling all the levers of a program.  At LSU this is real, and the AD is more or less run by them.  Some of them are going to have been burning up Woodward's phone Saturday night.  Some of them don't care about Orgeron's personal life, but others will.  It doesn't sit well with some of them what's happened in his marriage after 2019, and it doesn't sit well with any of them that he's constantly on Instagram with Bimbo Of The Week, particularly while his team flounders.  There's the matter of his verbal sparring with a UCLA fan in the Sissy Blue incident, and all the way back to his ridiculous lie about Texas' locker room not having AC in the 2019 game.  These are just off the top of my head.  

They notice this stuff and it's going to matter.  A guy like Miles got more rope because whatever his problems were, people liked him and as far as anyone knew he represented the school well. 

The alternate way forward is maybe something like the fishing camp story is true and they'll use that or something like it to fire him for cause.  And if they can't, well....you know Louisiana politicians....if they don't have a legal way out of the contract, they'll make one. 

My guess is if they really want him gone, they'll figure out a way to do it without coughing up 21 mil.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 12:40:31 PM
Yeah, could be, finding cause happens (Tenn).  Moral turpitude etc.

I am unfamiliar with the noise around Coach O of course.  But his on field failures are mounting.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 03:18:11 PM
He has a growing list of what might be loosely termed "shenanigans."
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 03:32:23 PM
Generally, I dislike firing a coach midseason, but if there is "cause" I'm for it, though cause can be contrived as you note.  Or ignored.

If they lose at UK, perhaps they will find sufficient cause.  I suspect down the road they reach and out of court and pay him a portion.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 07:20:04 PM
Could be, we'll see.  

I do think he finishes the season no matter what.  Like I told Joe, I don't see anyone on staff they can hand the keys to, even temporarily. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 04, 2021, 08:41:23 PM
Dang. Would you really fire the coach who just won the CFP from the year before last?  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: bamajoe on October 04, 2021, 09:26:17 PM
Auburn fired Gene Chizik two years after winning the NC.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 04, 2021, 09:48:53 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 04, 2021, 08:41:23 PM
Dang. Would you really fire the coach who just won the CFP from the year before last? 
Replacing a coach is not always the solution, and sometimes you end up with someone worse.  But if you are convinced he's not the solution you might as well roll the dice. 

As for winning the nc 2 years ago, I think at this point it's safe to say it was a happy accident.  I'd thank him for the memories and leave it there.  His selling point was that he'd be a great recruiter and hire the best coaches.  But he's failed at almost all of his hires, and while his classes look nice high up in the 247 composite rankings, those classes don't look so good today.  A bunch of them transfered , some don't pan out, and the positional needs haven't been handled well (see:  worst O-line in school history).  There's a lot more I could say about his hires and his lack of philosophy that impedes the team, but you get the idea. 

And to reiterate, he'd have a longer period of grace if not for his personal shortcomings.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 11:12:14 AM
Yeah, I see a mess on multiple fronts, most of which lies at his feet.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 01:23:20 PM
First and 10: 2019 has never felt farther away for Ed Orgeron. It's win or walk, now (saturdaydownsouth.com) (https://www.saturdaydownsouth.com/sec-football/first-and-10-why-ed-orgeron-is-on-hot-seat/?fbclid=IwAR0XAE1E-TCFruStIy2j212Mn49mGuFha8yHb6J4AyrSowFy7CzR8lrZzOk)

Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 05, 2021, 01:57:43 PM
In that article, those stats about the run game are actually skewed more positively than the reality.  They include bumps for McNeese and Central Michigan (which were still very bad, but better than vs. P5 teams).  Vs P5 the numbers are near unimaginably poor. 

LSU had -6 yards rushing at the half against AU.  32 for the game.  Take out QB #'s and it's worse.  According to PFF LSU averaged -0.6 yards before contact on run plays.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 05, 2021, 02:01:35 PM
How can you be negative on YBC?

Your line stops you?
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 05, 2021, 05:32:55 PM
It means on average you got hit by defenders behind the line of scrimmage.  Such a stat usually points to a terrible O-line, which is the case here.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 08:37:31 AM
If I get hit behind the line, I'd have zero YAC, not negative.  This must mean the OL gets pushed back and the RB goes backwards after contact, or something.

Maybe the RB breaks a tackle and runs backwards.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 06, 2021, 05:24:45 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 06, 2021, 08:37:31 AM
If I get hit behind the line, I'd have zero YAC, not negative.  This must mean the OL gets pushed back and the RB goes backwards after contact, or something.

Maybe the RB breaks a tackle and runs backwards.

It's not YAC, it's yards before contact.  i.e., how many yards does a back make it before contact with a defender (regardless of how many yards he winds up gaining on the play).  The LOS is 0.  If you're hit right on the los, that's 0 yards before contact.  If your line opens a huge hole and it's 6 yards before a defender touches you, you got 6 yards before contact, even if you carry the pile for a total of 10 yards on the play.  If the line is made of swiss cheese and you get hit a half a yard behind the los, you had -0.5 yards before contact.

If you averaged -0.6 yards before contact for a game, everything about your rushing attack sucks.  

The yards per carry was positive (though tiny), so it means that on average the backs powered forward for a small gain even after being hit in the backfield.    
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 06, 2021, 05:40:29 PM
Speaking of weak sex, that reminds me of this one girl I tried to start something up with in Hallettesville, TX who totally shut me down.  I wasn't used to that.  Louisiana girls always seemed immune to my charms, but something about Texas girls....they liked me.  Maybe it's the accent.  I married a Texas girl, probably because that seems to be the only state with women who would have me.  Anyway, there was this gorgeous girl I met at the courthouse one day, we talked for a while, I was feeling good about things, I asked her out, she said no.  

It's on topic for the thread....it was weak, because there was no sex.  

I'd rather talk about that then LSU football.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: utee94 on October 07, 2021, 12:29:49 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 06, 2021, 05:40:29 PM
Speaking of weak sex, that reminds me of this one girl I tried to start something up with in Hallettesville, TX who totally shut me down.  I wasn't used to that.  Louisiana girls always seemed immune to my charms, but something about Texas girls....they liked me.  Maybe it's the accent.  I married a Texas girl, probably because that seems to be the only state with women who would have me.  Anyway, there was this gorgeous girl I met at the courthouse one day, we talked for a while, I was feeling good about things, I asked her out, she said no. 

It's on topic for the thread....it was weak, because there was no sex. 

I'd rather talk about that then LSU football. 
You remedied the situation and appear to have come out quite well, so no worries there.

The past decade (and much of the 80s and 90s) has certainly led me to understand wanting to talk about anything other than football, though.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 07, 2021, 01:45:36 PM
Thanks for the explanation, I was thinking YAC.

Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 08, 2021, 09:55:38 AM
Aggies vs Alabama

Well I don’t expect to have any success this week against the Goliath that is Alabama. Before the season started many sportswriters and fans thought this would be a top ten matchup and since we had home field advantage maybe one of the former assistants could finally break the streak. Of course those people also ignored the fact that we were going to be starting a new QB behind a young offensive line. And then we lost that QB and his replacement didn’t pan out too great…yet. 

I realize that Bama is also breaking in a new QB as well, but they seem to be able to do this kind of thing seamlessly year after year. They truly are a machine. 

We have had success over the years when playing #1 teams. Wins vs OU and Alabama in 2002 and 2012. Close losses vs OU and Alabama in 2000 and 2013. And of course the win vs KSU in 1998 that won us our last conference title. 

For this game I’m thinking Bama will go up like 34-3 in the first half and pretty much play it like a scrimmage in the 2nd half so the score looks a little closer but I see a 55-17 type ending and it was never that close. 

Sucking sucks!  

Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 08, 2021, 10:01:25 AM
Quote from: Cincydawg on October 04, 2021, 06:16:00 AM
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#18Auburn (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/2/auburn-tigers)		3:30 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282097)CBSTickets as low as $143 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/auburn-tigers-tickets/auburn-10-9-3561081.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Jordan-Hare Stadium, Auburn, AL
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/249.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/249/north-texas-mean-green)
North Texas (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/249/north-texas-mean-green)		(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/142.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/142/missouri-tigers)
Missouri (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/142/missouri-tigers)		4:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282101)(https://a.espncdn.com/redesign/assets/img/logos/networks/espn-sec@2x.png) (http://www.secnetwork.com/)Tickets as low as $34 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/missouri-tigers-tickets/missouri-10-9-3539752.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Memorial Stadium/Faurot Field, Columbia, MO
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/99.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)
LSU (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/99/lsu-tigers)		(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/96.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats)
#16Kentucky (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/96/kentucky-wildcats)		7:30 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282099)(https://a.espncdn.com/redesign/assets/img/logos/networks/espn-sec@2x.png) (http://www.secnetwork.com/)Tickets as low as $133 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/kentucky-wildcats-tickets/kentucky-10-9-3561050.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Kroger Field, Lexington, KY
(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/333.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)
#1Alabama (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/333/alabama-crimson-tide)		(https://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/ncaa/500/245.png&h=50) (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/245/texas-am-aggies)
Texas A&M (https://www.espn.com/college-football/team/_/id/245/texas-am-aggies)		8:00 PM (https://www.espn.com/college-football/game/_/gameId/401282103)CBSTickets as low as $95 (https://www.vividseats.com/ncaaf/texas-am-aggies-tickets/texas-am-10-9-3561056.html?wsUser=717&wsVar=us~ncf~schedule,desktop,en)Kyle Field, College Station, TX
Ark 33 ole Miss 27

UF 55 Vandy 13

UTenn 27 USC 18

UGa 35 Auburn 10

Mizzou 34 UNT 21

UK 38 LSU 35

Bama 55 A&M 17



Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Drew4UTk on October 08, 2021, 12:45:47 PM
Arky 31-38 Ole miss 28-42.... money veers from this one.
UF 35-45 Vandy 0-10... nothing to be made here. 
UT 38-45 USCe 14-17... man, I wanna jump the over (+57) but can't. 
UGA 35-52 Auby 0-3... is this the game UGA trips? Doubt. No $ here.  
Miss-Sue and who? 
LSU at UK is interesting. UK 24-31 LSU 21-31- toss up.  
Bama big.  

It's a slow weekend on the moneyline. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 10, 2021, 12:48:12 AM
Happily proved wrong. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Cincydawg on October 10, 2021, 08:24:23 AM
My picks have been awful.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 10, 2021, 03:56:42 PM
Quote from: Gigem on October 08, 2021, 09:55:38 AM
Sucking sucks! 

You know nothing of sucking.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 10, 2021, 04:03:36 PM
Watching a ranked Kentucky team whip an unranked LSU team makes me think its basketball season.  
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 10, 2021, 09:29:45 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 10, 2021, 03:56:42 PM
You know nothing of sucking. 
We’ve had two losing seasons since Y2K. 2003 and 2008. We’ve had several 6-6 seasons. Whole bunch of 7-5 years. Thinking about bowl game losses makes me want to throw up. We lost a game 77-0 and it wasn’t even that close because OU gave up in the 4th quarter by falling down. We haven’t won a conference title since 1998 and the only other time we came close was in 2010 when we beat OU h2h but they got the nod due to their BCS ranking since we had equal losses. We’ve won exactly 4 games out of 20 vs LSU and Bama since joining the SEC. We’re probably even with ole miss and Miss St. 

During that same span LSU won 3 nattys, multiple conference championships, won a bunch of big bowl games. 

I could and did make the case that LSU fans don’t know sucking. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: MikeDeTiger on October 10, 2021, 11:43:08 PM
Ok, you convinced me that A&M sucks :93:
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on October 10, 2021, 11:55:46 PM
LSU sucked ass in the 90s, we hung 50 points on them several times.
And I witnessed a 41-9 game in person when the Gators ventured into the bayou.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: bamajoe on October 11, 2021, 04:48:45 PM
Congratulations, Gigem! There is a reason they play the game.
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 11, 2021, 09:11:47 PM
Something just occurred to me. With the SEC expansion we may not play Alabama next year. In fact, we may not play them again for years and years. Depending on how they realign the conference. If they move Alabama and Auburn East it could be awhile, unless we were to meet them in the SEC CCG. 

Nice to go out with a win. 
Title: Re: Weak Sex
Post by: Gigem on October 11, 2021, 09:27:05 PM
Quote from: MikeDeTiger on October 10, 2021, 11:43:08 PM
Ok, you convinced me that A&M sucks :93:
Don’t get me wrong. We’re not at a level of suck Texas Tech bad. We’ve had some tremendous victories along the way, and some oh so close seasons. Beat several number one teams, OU in 2002, Alabama in 2012, KSU in 1998. We had a heisman winner, some thrilling losses, and even enjoyed a lot of bowl success in the last decade. We’ve had our two best finishes since before WWII in the last ten years. 

We let some good seasons slip away. 2006 still smarts, as does 2010. 2012 with Johnny Football was special, one game from winning the SECW our first year. We played well enough to beat LSU that year but missed some field goals that would’ve won it for us.