hopefully we get to see a little bit more of Donovan Edwards this week. I really like the little glimpses we've got to see of him. He's got tons of star potential. Michigan has the best RB room it's had in ages.3 great backs. I like how they are all getting touches.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_3uZ-K_eXNg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i6DDE8KZbZU
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=khxf8YXmHhg
If Jim Harbaugh loses this one, he might as well kill himself.
Edwards is one of those long stride guys that moves a lot faster than it looks like he isyeah, he's definitely very fast but doesn't look it because it's a long stride and so effortless. Edwards is going to be a beast once he adds 10-15 pounds of muscle and builds up his upper & lower body.
If Jim Harbaugh loses this one, he might as well kill himself.Well that's sort of grotesque.
I saw that Mich was favored by 18 which surprised me.
Both teams are 3-0. All non-conference games. Rutgers has beat an AAC team, Temple, something like 63-14 and beat an ACC team Sryacuse. Mich has blown out 2 MAC teams and a PAC Washington team. Thats about the same to me.
Plus it was already mentioned that MIch-Rut played to triple OT last year and Rutgers actually finished with very similar record to Mich last year.
So what am I missing? Why is Mich favored by 18?
Have you seen their shiny helmet?
So what am I missing? Why is Mich favored by 18?
So what am I missing? Why is Mich favored by 18?Michigan has been dominant in all their games. Rutgers is 3-0 but is also 2nd in the nation in turnover margin and had less than 200 yards of offense against Syracuse. They've been a better version of Rutgers but also a bit lucky. Michigan leads the nation in rushing. If Rutgers can force them to pass, this could be a game. But that is easier said than done.
The line may be impacted by folks' memories of Rutgers in part, and Michigan. I don't know how much the line is impacted by folks who don't pay much attention to the game, some perhaps? A line of 18 struck me as "about right" but I don't know much about either team.I've said before that a Vegas line isn't necessarily what they think the outcome of the game should be, the line is set where the oddsmakers think there will be a 50/50 split on the betting. Vegas is designed to make their money off the vig. If betting is 90/10 Vegas has risk--the house might win big, but they also might lose big. If betting is 50/50, Vegas has zero risk. Half the bettors will win, half will lose, and Vegas makes money on the vig regardless of which half is which.
If Rutgers can force them to pass, this could be a game. But that is easier said than done.With Melton out, I'm not even sure that will matter anymore
If Rutgers can force them to pass, this could be a game. But that is easier said than done.Michigan has better WR's than people give them credit for. Cornelius Johnson is better and faster than people think he is. Dude can really run, and he's big. He's done some things that have really made me go wow this year. AJ Henning & Roman Wilson can both fly- both just haven't gotten the targets because the passing offense sucks and they don't pass the ball much. Henning has shown his speed and burst on punt returns and reverses. Wilson popped a reverse for about 50+ and flashed his speed.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3H_-bkZ4qhk&t=1sI got to hand it to you @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , you never, and I mean NEVER miss an opportunity to post this clip.
I've said before that a Vegas line isn't necessarily what they think the outcome of the game should be, the line is set where the oddsmakers think there will be a 50/50 split on the betting. Vegas is designed to make their money off the vig. If betting is 90/10 Vegas has risk--the house might win big, but they also might lose big. If betting is 50/50, Vegas has zero risk. Half the bettors will win, half will lose, and Vegas makes money on the vig regardless of which half is which.For the most part, lines are set using power rankings based on mathematical formulas. Those numbers used preseason data, often recent success and recruiting rankings as part of their predictors (which create better predictors). SP+ isn’t fully in line with Vegas, but it’s often a good barometer.
So yes, perception may affect Vegas lines. Fanbase size may affect Vegas lines. I.e. there are a lot more Michigan fans in the US than Rutgers fans, and Michigan fans are more likely to bet their team than Rutgers fans, so there is a nonzero built-in betting base for Michigan that doesn't exist for Rutgers. The oddsmakers take these things into account when setting lines.
I got to hand it to you @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , you never, and I mean NEVER miss an opportunity to post this clip.
I've said before that a Vegas line isn't necessarily what they think the outcome of the game should be, the line is set where the oddsmakers think there will be a 50/50 split on the betting. Vegas is designed to make their money off the vig. If betting is 90/10 Vegas has risk--the house might win big, but they also might lose big. If betting is 50/50, Vegas has zero risk. Half the bettors will win, half will lose, and Vegas makes money on the vig regardless of which half is which.I have not bet on sports. So, explain for me this . . . does the betting line change over time with the bets placed on each side of the game, as it does in pari-mutuel betting at my local dog track (which will no longer exist after 2022)?
So yes, perception may affect Vegas lines. Fanbase size may affect Vegas lines. I.e. there are a lot more Michigan fans in the US than Rutgers fans, and Michigan fans are more likely to bet their team than Rutgers fans, so there is a nonzero built-in betting base for Michigan that doesn't exist for Rutgers. The oddsmakers take these things into account when setting lines.
I have not bet on sports. So, explain for me this . . . does the betting line change over time with the bets placed on each side of the game, as it does in pari-mutuel betting at my local dog track (which will no longer exist after 2022)?Yup
The Line is an interesting thing. Obviously the House will win nearly every time with the Vig if they balance the bets, no reason to mess with a sure thing.I've also wondered about this. My thought on bigger programs getting larger betting lines to even the wagering on both sides was from a coworker who was a bookie on the side. This was mid-2000s.
I have wondered if major programs with a lot of fans get a larger line as a result, but then, bettors would know this and offset it to the point it disappeared.
I have not bet on sports. So, explain for me this . . . does the betting line change over time with the bets placed on each side of the game, as it does in pari-mutuel betting at my local dog track (which will no longer exist after 2022)?Yes, the line moves to try to equalize the action on both sides of the wager. If the betting is heavy to one side or the other, the line will adjust during the week.
| Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0) |
| 3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC |
| Wherever Michigan's season goes from here, it was perhaps the win last year at Rutgers that put them in a place to have this success. The Wolverines had lost 3 in a row, one as a 4 touchdown favorite, and the other two in blowout fashion, were trailing Rutgers 17-0 late in the first half, with just a 12% chance to win, and probably a similar chance of Harbaugh being back in 2021. The season was completely off the rails. Instead Harbaugh decided to pivot away from his Cam Newton/Vince Young hybrid in Joe Milton, to Cade McNamera. McNamera almost immediately hit Conelius Johnson for a 43 yard touchdown pass, sparking a 48-42 triple overtime win. McNamera finished 27-36 for 260 yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and no interceptions. He had run off Milton, but was surely going to be supplanted by incoming 5* recruit J.J. McNamera, right? Nope. People act like he's some scrappy walk on. 247 ranked him as the #7 pro style QB coming out of high school, a 4* recruit who chose Michigan over USC. No, Michigan isn't winning BECAUSE of him, but he is certainly allowing them to win. Right now though, until someone forces McNamera to beat them, he will keep on picking his spots. Rutgers will try, but as bad as Washington is, their defense is still #15 in the nation in SP+. They held Arkansas State to 48 rushing yards on 2.1 ypc last week. Michigan ran 56 times for 343 yards on 6.1 ypc on them. And in the rain, with Michigan leading, and McNamera throwing just 14 passes, you know Washington was loaded up to stop the run. They just couldn't do it. As good as Rutgers is on defense, I'm not confident they are better than Washington, and now down their best cornerback, and another one in the rotation, just how confident is Greg Schiano in selling out to completely stop the run? My guess is less so than he otherwise would have. The Wolverines have their own issues at cornerback, so Noah Vedral, who has completed 80% of his passes over his last two games, is efficient enough to perhaps take some advantage to move the ball a little bit better than expected. Remember, Washington did move the ball a little better than the final score would indicate. Michigan is 3-0 against Rutgers in Ann Arbor, with an average score of 45-10. I think the game will be a little better this year. |
| MICHIGAN 35, RUTGERS 23 |
PFF's highest graded RB's thru 3 weeks. Kinda crazy #1 & #2 were on the same team last year and that team SUCKED.recruiting and talent is not the issue
If they balance the money coming in, there can be no blind spot. I wonder how often a line changes dramatically, say a game opens at +10 and some massive bet comes in, would it go to +15?I meant a systemic blind spot.
The biggest difference in Michigan's run game this year is the OL. It's been very good against questionable defenses. As always the RBs and other skill positions get the press. We'll see if Michigan's OL can keep it up for the rest of the season. In past years with good starts they could not against the better Big Ten defenses.nothing questionable about Washington's defense at all. Washington has an excellent defense. Unfortunately for them, they also have one of the worst offenses in college football.
I'm having a hard time seeing Rutgers keeping up. IF Michigan doesn't blow them out at home, Harbaugh can pack his bags and hit the road as far as I'm concerned.
Rutgers Scarlet Knights (3-0) at #19 Michigan Wolverines (3-0) 3:30 - Ann Arbor, MI - ABC Wherever Michigan's season goes from here, it was perhaps the win last year at Rutgers that put them in a place to have this success. The Wolverines had lost 3 in a row, one as a 4 touchdown favorite, and the other two in blowout fashion, were trailing Rutgers 17-0 late in the first half, with just a 12% chance to win, and probably a similar chance of Harbaugh being back in 2021. The season was completely off the rails. Instead Harbaugh decided to pivot away from his Cam Newton/Vince Young hybrid in Joe Milton, to Cade McNamera. McNamera almost immediately hit Conelius Johnson for a 43 yard touchdown pass, sparking a 48-42 triple overtime win. McNamera finished 27-36 for 260 yards, 5 touchdowns (4 passing, 1 rushing), and no interceptions. He had run off Milton, but was surely going to be supplanted by incoming 5* recruit J.J. McNamera, right? Nope. People act like he's some scrappy walk on. 247 ranked him as the #7 pro style QB coming out of high school, a 4* recruit who chose Michigan over USC. No, Michigan isn't winning BECAUSE of him, but he is certainly allowing them to win. Right now though, until someone forces McNamera to beat them, he will keep on picking his spots. Rutgers will try, but as bad as Washington is, their defense is still #15 in the nation in SP+. They held Arkansas State to 48 rushing yards on 2.1 ypc last week. Michigan ran 56 times for 343 yards on 6.1 ypc on them. And in the rain, with Michigan leading, and McNamera throwing just 14 passes, you know Washington was loaded up to stop the run. They just couldn't do it. As good as Rutgers is on defense, I'm not confident they are better than Washington, and now down their best cornerback, and another one in the rotation, just how confident is Greg Schiano in selling out to completely stop the run? My guess is less so than he otherwise would have. The Wolverines have their own issues at cornerback, so Noah Vedral, who has completed 80% of his passes over his last two games, is efficient enough to perhaps take some advantage to move the ball a little bit better than expected. Remember, Washington did move the ball a little better than the final score would indicate. Michigan is 3-0 against Rutgers in Ann Arbor, with an average score of 45-10. I think the game will be a little better this year. MICHIGAN 35, RUTGERS 23
A terrible offense usually leads to an inadequate defense statistically for obvious reasons.Washington defense is 15th in S&P+. If they had an even competent offense- they'd be higher.
Washington defense is 15th in S&P+. If they had an even competent offense- they'd be higher.Yup, that's my point. The same is true for a quick strike offense, and the reverse is true for a grind it out control offense.