CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on September 19, 2021, 12:37:16 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-2-23889/).
Raw votes:
(https://i.imgur.com/eNlghfZ.png)
Drop the high and low vote for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/zEyVtgO.png)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/KDRnoXA.png)
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(https://i.imgur.com/vFwRfe0.png)
#s 1 and 2: I considered moving Michigan to #1. Michigan’s offense is impressive; its defense almost impeccable. That said, Michigan does not have the strength of schedule of my #1. Michigan could possibly be the top team. Time will tell.
I was impressed by Penn State. Penn State has a solid strength of schedule. The top three teams appear very close to each other, as does Wisconsin.
Michigan State now has three straight wins including over a ranked team. Michigan State has a “dangerous” opponent next week. Nebraska appears to be coming on, but Nebraska is also dangerous to itself. I am guessing this will be an interesting game.
As for highly rated nationally ranked teams, it appears none of the top teams are unbeatable. Alabama and Oklahoma appear to be flawed humans this season. I don't think Oregon or Iowa are unbeatable. It could be that multiple playoff teams have two losses. That leaves Georgia to be psychoanalyzed.
I was not overly pleased with Iowa QB Spencer Petras Saturday, but against the top intercept school this year, Petras has 0 interceptions.
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1. OSU - based on how they have played this season so far, OSU does not deserve to be #1, but gets the benefit of the doubt based on its history.
2. PSU - beat a good Auburn team
3. Iowa - will be in every game because of its excellent defense, but Iowa's passing game is just not any good, and that will catch up to them eventually if it does not get any better.
4. Mich - looking really good against the MAC
5. MSU - Appears to be back much sooner than expected. Tucker's use of the transfer portal may be the new example to follow going forward.
6. Wisc - Like Iowa,, Wisc is also worried about its QB
7. Minn - to be honest, I don't know what to make of this team. That was really impressive what they did against Col, but let's see what they do next week.
8. Rut - keeps cruising. Is Cinderella going to turn into a punkin when they start Big Ten play?
9. Indy - I am ready to concede that Indy may not be a Top 25 team this year. If you got a team down 14-0, you need to finish them off.
10. MD - almost fell to a bad ILL team.
11. Neb - showing signs of life. Are they about to break through?
12. Pur - I know they were playing ND, but ND has looked beatable this year.
13. NW - needs to get better
14. ILL - seems to be one of those bad teams that can play a competitive game about half the time.
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Now that I have seen the teams play for a couple games and have the opportunity to watch them my first attempt at this for this season:
1. Iowa
2. PSU
3. UM
4. MSU
5. Wisconsin
6. OSU
7. Minnesota
8. Rutgers
9. Nebraska
10. Indiana
11. Maryland
12. Purdue
13. NW
14. Illinois
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1. Michigan: They have finally developed a reliable running game, and the defense looks good. The passing game may suck against teams with a pulse, but they have a couple things to hang their hat on.
2. Iowa: The defense is legit. The offense is a bit of a hit or miss, and I'm not certain they will be as reliable as Michigan, so in the 2 hole they go.
3. Penn State: Wouldn't say they have knocked my socks off, but they have been strong defensively and the offense seems to be finding its way through a tough early schedule.
4. Wisconsin: Still too early to tell. The defense again looks great, if Mertz figures something out they will be really good. If not...
5. Michigan State: Not much to complain about - they run the ball, play defense, have some weapons in the pass game. The B1G's biggest surprise.
6. OSU: The defense might be the worst in the league, but they have no shortage of playmakers on offense. If Stroud work out the kinks they can rise higher, right now, their scoring doesn't quite match their potential. I haven't seen any hope the defense improves though.
7. Minnesota: Kicked the crap out of Colorado. If they suddenly play legit defense every week, watch out.
8. Maryland: Skating along, they are 3-0. Not exactly impressive against Illinois, but a win is a win.
9. Purdue: No shame in losing tough to ND. That makes them as good as ...Toledo.
10. Rutgers: I like this team though fear they may get humbled soon.
11. Indiana: Penix is way off.
12. Nebraska: Fought the good fight, but just don't have it on offense.
13. Illinois: Trying to be a tough out, if nothing else.
14. Northwestern: Man, defense free NW is just a bad team.
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Michigan State
7. Minnesota
8. Maryland
9. Rutgers
10. Purdue
11. Indiana
12. Nebraska
13. Illinois
14. Northwestern
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- Nittany Lions
- Wolverines
- Hawkeyes
- Badgers
- Buckeyes
- Spartans
- Scarlet Knights
- Terrapins
- Golden Gophers
- Boilermakers
- Hoosiers
- Fighting Illini
- Cornhuskers
- Wildcats
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1) Penn State (1)
2) Ohio State (2)
3) Michigan (5)
4) Wisconsin (3)
5) Iowa (4)
6) Michigan State (11)
7) Maryland (6)
8) Minnesota (8)
9) Indiana (7)
10) Rutgers (9)
11) Purdue (10)
12) Nebraska (12)
13) Illinois (14)
14) Northwestern (13)
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I still think on neutral ground OSU is a 7 point favorite over anyone else, but that is sliding.
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I still think on neutral ground OSU is a 7 point favorite over anyone else, but that is sliding.
this is my thought as well. OSU still young team that is trying to find itself. They will get better.
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1) Iowa - reminds of the Tressel Buckeyes
2) Penn State - two very nice wins
3) Michigan - a little hesitant to put them this high, but my eyes say yes at this point.
4) Ohio State - 1 step forward, 2 steps back. Still has some time to get things figured out
5) Michigan State - Mistake free football will win you a lot of games
6) Wisconsin - show me time
7) Minnesota - where did that performance come from?
8) Indiana - seemed to collapse after the targeting call.
9) Maryland - survived a scare. They may just be a good home and bad road team.
10) Rutgers - Nice start, but time for conference play.
11) Purdue - Still unsure how good they are.
12) Nebraska - Too many mistakes, but playing hard for Frost
13) Northwestern - tried to come back
14) Illinoi - Bitterly disappointing loss.
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this is my thought as well. OSU still young team that is trying to find itself. They will get better.
I still think on neutral ground OSU is a 7 point favorite over anyone else, but that is sliding.
Yes and apparently favored by 53 against Akron this week, but Vegas must be smoking something.
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1) Iowa - reminds of the Tressel Buckeyes
You bring back a distant memory. I had no criticism of Coach Tressel. I didn't think the Buckeyes could do better with anyone else, but I thought if Tressel hired John Cooper as offensive coordinator, or Cooper's offensive coordinator, there could be improvement. I had not thought about this for years.
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You bring back a distant memory. I had no criticism of Coach Tressel. I didn't think the Buckeyes could do better with anyone else, but I thought if Tressel hired John Cooper as offensive coordinator, or Cooper's offensive coordinator, there could be improvement. I had not thought about this for years.
Yeah, he had Jim Bollman for basically his entire tenure. Tressel was extremely loyal to his assistants, probably to a fault.
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Yeah, he had Jim Bollman for basically his entire tenure. Tressel was extremely loyal to his assistants, probably to a fault.
Probably?
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1. Penn State
2. Iowa
3. Michigan
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan State
6. Wisconsin
7. Minnesota
8. Rutgers
9. Maryland
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Indiana
13. Illinoi
14. Northwestern
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I still think on neutral ground OSU is a 7 point favorite over anyone else, but that is sliding.
I honestly don't know what to do with the Buckeyes ranking right now. Here is one argument:
this is my thought as well. OSU still young team that is trying to find itself. They will get better.
Basically this argument has five main parts:
- tOSU has a substantial talent advantage over every other team in the league.
- tOSU has a ridiculous recent history of dominating this league. They haven't lost a league game since 2018 when they lost one. They also lost one each in 2017, 2016, and 2015, and 2013 (CG). They lost none in 2020, 2019, 2014, and 2012. The last time they lost more than one league game in a year was in 2011 during a coaching transition. Prior to that the last time they lost more than one league game in a year was in 2004 so in almost two decades the Buckeyes have lost more than one league game twice.
- Did you see what Minnesota did to Colorado?
- It is not unrealistic to think that Oregon is the best team that any B1G team has played so far this year and the Buckeyes were in that game until the end.
- Although the Buckeyes haven't looked great, their only loss is to a team now ranked #3/4 and they are #1 in this league until proven otherwise. It hasn't been proven yet.
Obviously the argument on the other side is to simply look at what your eyes have seen. The Buckeyes have looked like a decent team but not as good as the top 3-4 teams in the league (I'm excluding MSU because I think the people ranking MSU above tOSU are reaching).
Thus we have an interesting situation in which there aren't many moderates wrt to tOSU's ranking. Out of nine voters so far the Buckeyes have:
- two votes for #1: @LittlePig (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1540) and @Temp430 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=131)
- one vote for #2: @iahawk15 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=874)
- zero votes for #3
- two votes for #4: @Abba (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=65) , @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5)
- one vote for #5: @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31)
- three votes for #6: @Hawkinole (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=25) , @Honestbuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=37) , and @MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572)
Teams that voters have ranked ahead of Ohio State:
- Penn State by 7 out of 9 voters
- Iowa by 6 out of 9 voters
- Michigan by 6 out of 9 voters
- Wisconsin by 4 out of 9 voters
- Michigan State by 3 out of 9 voters
We generally agree around here that 'power ranking' means who would win on a neutral field. Even that doesn't really help me right now because I feel like it is different for different teams. Comparing tOSU and PSU:
- If I were an Illinois fan I'd rather play tOSU because I'd feel like there was a chance that tOSU might show up and play a bad enough game that my bad team just might be able to knock them off.
- If I were an Alabama fan I'd rather play PSU (or IA, M, UW, or MSU) because I'd feel like my uber-talented team could simply out-talent them so severely that they'd have almost no chance.
If you asked me which team Illinois was more likely to beat I'd say tOSU but if you asked me which team was more likely to beat Bama, I'd also say tOSU.
When I do my rankings I think I'm going to leave tOSU at #1 on the basis that after the last two decades you are going to have to show me more than a couple of bad games and only one (non-league) loss before I decide that they aren't #1 anymore.
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I just rank them 6th because the defense is Bad with a capital B. They seem to have gotten worse each week. They are 118th(!) in the country in total defense. That's not bad for Ohio State, that's bad for a MAC team. I'm not even sure if they have played a very good offense yet. Minny looks the part but was missing their top receiver and Ibrahim was injured halfway through. Oregon has been inconsistent on offense going back to last season. Tulsa is Tulsa.
OSU has a puncher's chance in any game because of their offense. But compare to 2018 - a similar team in terms of janky defense. That defense was much better than this one, and the offense was probably better, too. That team won the B1G and a Rose Bowl, but also won close games that I'm not sure this team will.
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- Ohio State - 1,1,1 Clearly not looking like a CFP team but I'm not yet ready to say they aren't #1 in this league.
- Penn State - 2,2,3 Great win!
- Michigan - 5,5,5 Chugging along looking like the Michigan of 30 years ago.
- Wisconsin - 3,3,2 Off this week getting ready for the Irish.
- Iowa - 4,4,4 This team is like a poor man's Tressel team. Their D is so good that they could beat almost anybody but their O is so bad that they just might lose any given week.
- Minnesota - 8,6,7 Wow, that was impressive! You can say Colorado sucks and maybe they do, but they had 260 yards against aTm. Aside from that, even assuming Colorado completely sucks, how often do you see even a team like Bama hold an opponent to <100 yards of offense?
- Michigan State - 9,9,11 Nice win!
- Maryland - 6,7,12 Escaped!
- Rutgers - 7,8,13 Did what they were expected to do against FCS opponent.
- Indiana - 10,10,6 Just collapsed late. They led at the half and going into the fourth but got destroyed in the fourth quarter.
- Purdue - 11,11,10 Well, they stayed in it.
- Nebraska - 14,14,9 Well, at least they didn't get embarrassed.
- Illinois - 13,13,14 The Illini are making the conference look bad. In their two league games they have a win over UNL and a close game with UMD but looking at their two OOC games they look pathetic.
- Northwestern - 12,12,8 Made it look respectable after trailing 27-0 but that was not good.
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Probably?
Although some of the coaches were mediocre, there was less turnover, which definitely has caused problems for Meyer and Day. Probably still better to get the best guy for 1-2 years, but semi-debatable.
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The Buckeye's schedule sets up nice the next five and a half weeks before the Penn State game. Plenty of time to get their Ducks in a row.
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I just rank them 6th because the defense is Bad with a capital B. They seem to have gotten worse each week. They are 118th(!) in the country in total defense. That's not bad for Ohio State, that's bad for a MAC team. I'm not even sure if they have played a very good offense yet. Minny looks the part but was missing their top receiver and Ibrahim was injured halfway through. Oregon has been inconsistent on offense going back to last season. Tulsa is Tulsa.
OSU has a puncher's chance in any game because of their offense. But compare to 2018 - a similar team in terms of janky defense. That defense was much better than this one, and the offense was probably better, too. That team won the B1G and a Rose Bowl, but also won close games that I'm not sure this team will.
I rank them down there as well, but for a completely different reasoning.
I always view ranking as simple as this: if they played tomorrow on a neutral field and someone put a gun to my head to bet my life savings or even $10, who would I pick. Right now I would pick four or five teams to win if the game were tomorrow.
having said that- there is context to what you are saying here. For example, ranking them in statistics after three games is really kind of silly. How do you compare a team that open the season with a brand new quarterback and a road game environment in the conference, with a team like Michigan just as an example who has not even played away from home let alone a conference opponent? The stats aren’t worth much until you get at least a few games into the conference schedule.
And Ibrahim played through most of the third Quarter.
As for their defense -you have to be more specific if you want to understand what’s going on there. There’s about 100 film studies available out there that explain that they have been running their single hi Safety look, with press man coverage and running at about 90% of the time with no effort’s to disguise it.
Joe Moorhead exposed it, mostly in the running game. Ohio State simply could not defend the boundary side of the field with the simple concept of “crack Replace”. ( something I learned in HS Football as a CB). Oregon very rarely dropped back to pass, choosing instead to get the ball out very quickly to the perimeter on the boundary side, which led to almost no pressure on the quarterback.
The coaching staff worked on many changes for this last weekend, primarily focusing on stuffing the opponents running game. They did a fantastic job of that holding them to 59 yards and 2 yards a carry. They played a soft zone, keeping everything in front of them for about 80% of the game. Tulsa picked them apart and the underneath zones with the dink and dunk game.
It did not lead to much in the way of points but it did the trick as far as possessing the ball, moving the chains, and keeping the ball out of Ohio states offense hands. Zack Harrison and Teradja Mitchell did not play. Tulsa had a few drop back passing plays, but mostly quick, short throws. When they did drop back The buckeyes got very little pressure which is very concerning. But it is also somewhat understandable since both Oregon and Tulsa have RPO’d them to death. When it’s potentially a running play the defensive lineman can’t simply pin their ears back and the teams have been using that to hold Ohio State in place.
The one area of strength has actually been the CBs in pass coverage. I know that sounds weird when they just gave up 480 yards passing but again almost all of that was soft zone stuff where the plan is to give them the throw and rally to the tackle.
Some new stars have been “ born” as well
Denzel Burke- true freshman CB has been solid as a rock. Cam Martinez, RSF, got his first substantial playing time yesterday in the defensive backfield and looked fantastic. Tyleik Williams, Freshman DT got his first limited playing time this weekend and looked like Johnathan Hankins the second.
where they have been hurt the most is at linebacker and they have some very good talent there but zero experience especially when you consider that last year‘s three starting linebackers were starters for three years. I would assume they will improve with experience as well the entire defense but it’s just a question of how long does it take.
On offensive superstar was born this weekend with Trayveon Henderson. He is a home run hitter and a threat every time he touches the ball but still can run in between the tackles.
The issue they have an office is the quarterback has been very inconsistent. At times against both Minnesota and Oregon he looked like an assassin. But against Tulsa he never looked good or comfortable. He is nursing some kind of a right shoulder injury and it makes you wonder if the staff will give someone else a try this coming weekend if for nothing else, to let his arm heal.
another shout against him is that he doesn’t run very often when he easily could and certainly has the skill to do it. Not sure if the injury is related to that or not.
All of that adds up to a team that’s not extremely impressive and certainly not dominant in anyway shape or form, but also has tremendous potential. Only time will tell if any of that potential gets fulfilled.
It is very challenging to change your primary scheme on defense this early in the season. But they don’t need to. They simply need to blend in cover two and some disguising of what they’re running as well as some creative blitz packages and that something they certainly could do and look like they’re trying to do.
As 1 million film breakdown experts have said in the last two weeks, it’s too easy for a good office of coordinator to game plan both beforehand and endgame when all they run is there a single hi Safety look. Do you need a crazy good defense of line and a crazy good deep safety to run that scheme and with Josh Proctor now out for the year Ohio State has neither of those two so hopefully they adapt to the really strong personnel that they do have, but time will tell
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I dunno, I am of the mind of James Laurinaitis - against a team like Tulsa, you should be able to play one defense and still do a competent job. I don't see a team that's about to turn a corner. I see a team that has average talent and makes a lot of mistakes. I like some of the young guys, but that only exacerbates the problem that guys who supposedly know the system are constantly not making plays or making bad plays.
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I dunno, I am of the mind of James Laurinaitis - against a team like Tulsa, you should be able to play one defense and still do a competent job. I don't see a team that's about to turn a corner. I see a team that has average talent and makes a lot of mistakes. I like some of the young guys, but that only exacerbates the problem that guys who supposedly know the system are constantly not making plays or making bad plays.
Well this could be true. We will see. I hope not.
They have to prove it on the field.
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Ohio State has elite talent, they are top 3 or 4 in the country in that respect.
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The Buckeye's schedule sets up nice the next five and a half weeks before the Penn State game. Plenty of time to get their Ducks in a row.
Yes, its really too bad the Buckeyes had to play the Ducks before they had all their Ducks in a row.
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Last week in parenthesis
- IOWA (1) - resume keeps them #1, but I'm not sure I'd pick them to beat everyone else on a neutral field right now
- PENN STATE (3) - defense remains stout, feeling better about the offense if that's the Sean Clifford we get
- OHIO STATE (2) - I still don't really buy this, but Iowa and Penn State have such good resumes
- WISCONSIN (4) - going to learn a lot this weekend
- MICHIGAN (5) - continue to take care of business, tough to learn much yet though
- MICHIGAN STATE (8) - ahead of schedule for sure, but can Kenneth Walker survive this workload?
- MARYLAND (6) - not pretty, but it's a road win against a conference opponent
- MINNESOTA (10) - hell of a bounce back statement
- RUTGERS (11) - we will learn a lot this week
- INDIANA (7) - should have been up a lot more than they were early, and that came back to bite them
- PURDUE (9) - how can Brohm still not have any running game? The run defense looks good
- NEBRASKA (13) - blackshirts are slowly rounding into a sneaky good side
- NORTHWESTERN (12) - hard to remember 2021 opened with a Citrus Bowl romp over Auburn, feels forever ago
- ILLINOIS (14) - where had that defense been the previous two weeks?
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Yes, its really too bad the Buckeyes had to play the Ducks before they had all their Ducks in a row.
😂😂. They were out coached on the defensive side of the ball. Oregon knew exactly how they would play defense, they knew it wouldn’t change them regardless of the situation of down and distance and they schemed for extremely well. Even with all that Ohio State had a chance to win in the end and didn’t do it. No pity here as they got exactly what they deserved
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I see a team that has average talent and makes a lot of mistakes.
Look, I get that there are issues but lets not overstate it. Oregon is the #3/4 team in the nation. A team with average talent making a lot of mistakes against them wouldn't have been in the game, they'd have been blown out.
Here is what I see:
Offense:
Hit or miss. When they hit they are phenomenal. When they don't, well they don't. The offense can be and at times is so good that they are a threat to win any game even with the defensive issues.
Defense:
Disarray. There is talent there but the scheme is obviously not getting the job done and that makes it hard to determine just how good or bad the talent actually is.
Upside potential:
Far and away the highest ceiling in the B1G and in the top-3 in the country (with UGA and Bama). If the offense matures and the defense gets "fixed" they are a CFP contender capable of winning it all.
Downside risk:
Troubling, to say the least. The way they looked the last few weeks they are vulnerable nearly every week. They won't lose them all and they'd still probably pull of an upset or two of teams that are generally playing better but they also could lose multiple games of the Purdue 2018/Iowa 2017 variety where they not only lose but get blown out by a team that they aught to be able to toy with.
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Rankings preview with 11 voters in so far (first place votes in parentheses):
- 1.91 PSU (3)
- 2.45 Iowa (4)
- 3.09 Michigan (1)
- 3.55 Ohio State (3)
- 4.64 Wisconsin
- 5.45 Michigan State
- 7.36 Minnesota
- 8.64 tie Rutgers
- 8.64 tie Maryland
- 10 Indiana
- 10.82 Purdue
- 11.55 Nebraska
- 13.27 Illinois
- 13.64 Northwestern
Unsurprisingly the Buckeyes have the widest range of votes (five spots from #1 to #6) and BY FAR the highest standard deviation. It just might stay that way until they either:
- Lose a league game, or
- Beat a highly ranked opponent.
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PURDUE (9) - how can Brohm still not have any running game? The run defense looks good
The offensive line sucks, and all the RBs are power backs who can't create on their own.
With a better offensive line, those RBs would be fine (if not particularly exciting). Behind this one, they have nowhere to go and no burst to get through and make something where there's nothing.
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Oregon is the #3/4 team in the nation.
Maybe. They beat Fresno State by a touchdown (and were outgained) and were up on Stony Brook 17-7 at halftime. I'm not sold that they are more than a solid team.
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1 PSU
2 Iowa
3 Michigan
4 Wisconsin
5 Ohio State
6 Michigan State
7 Minnesota
8 Rutgers
9 Maryland
10 Indiana
11 Purdue
12 Nebraska
13 Illinois
14 Northwestern
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Rankings preview with 11 voters in so far (first place votes in parentheses):
- 1.91 PSU (3)
- 2.45 Iowa (4)
- 3.09 Michigan (1)
- 3.55 Ohio State (3)
- 4.64 Wisconsin
- 5.45 Michigan State
- 7.36 Minnesota
- 8.64 tie Rutgers
- 8.64 tie Maryland
- 10 Indiana
- 10.82 Purdue
- 11.55 Nebraska
- 13.27 Illinois
- 13.64 Northwestern
Unsurprisingly the Buckeyes have the widest range of votes (five spots from #1 to #6) and BY FAR the highest standard deviation. It just might stay that way until they either:
- Lose a league game, or
- Beat a highly ranked opponent.
Right now I still have OSU #1, but I might be tempted, if both Iowa and PSU are still undefeated going into the Iowa-PSU game on Oct 9, to move the winner of the PSU-Iowa game up to #1.
There are lot of ifs there. I have a hunch one of them will lose the week before, either PSU losing to Indiana, or Iowa losing to MD, because these dream matchups never seem to work out.
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1 Iowa
2 PSU
3 Michigan
4 Wisconsin
5 OSU
6 Minnesota
7 MSU
8 Maryland
9 Purdue
10 Rutgers
11 Nebraska
12 NW
13 Indiana
14 Illinios
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Right now I still have OSU #1, but I might be tempted, if both Iowa and PSU are still undefeated going into the Iowa-PSU game on Oct 9, to move the winner of the PSU-Iowa game up to #1.
. . . I have a hunch one of them will lose the week before, either PSU losing to Indiana, or Iowa losing to MD, because these dream matchups never seem to work out.
I have a feeling if Iowa and PSU are undefeated, it will be a night game at Kinnick. I do not understand why, but I think prime time games in Kinnick Stadium are usually an advantage for Iowa. Iowa has a 10-4 record in night games at Kinnick.
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Maybe. They beat Fresno State by a touchdown (and were outgained) and were up on Stony Brook 17-7 at halftime. I'm not sold that they are more than a solid team.
this is my thinking. Not sure how good anyone in the PAC is. That conference looks like it sucks pretty bad.
There is not a complete team or a standout team that is far ahead of the pack. At all. No pun intended. Washington has a defense, but an offense that is complete ass. UCLA can put up points, but they can't stop anyone. Stanford might backdoor it and take it. They'll get both UCLA and Oregon at home and they already beat the shit out of USC.
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I'll go....
1) Ohio State - for now, keeping them #1. I think we'll really learn more about them after they play Rutgers, Maryland, and Indiana. If their defensive lapse continue in those 3 games and they falter, will have to drop em.
2) Penn State - best resume so far imo.
3) Iowa
4) Wisconsin
5) TIE - the Michigan teams. State has the W on the road vs Miami and looks good. Michigan just been shallacking everyone on their schedule. This years game shaping up to be something special.
7) Maryland
8) Minnesota
9) Indiana
10) Rutgers
11) Nebraska
12) Purdue
13) Northwestern
14) Illinois
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I have a feeling if Iowa and PSU are undefeated, it will be a night game at Kinnick. I do not understand why, but I think prime time games in Kinnick Stadium are usually an advantage for Iowa. Iowa has a 10-4 record in night games at Kinnick.
I guess it depends on who picks first that weekend. If Fox has the first pick it will be at 11am. If its ABC, then it will probably be a night game.
EDIT: I see there are only 5 Big Ten games total that day and 2 are already scheduled for 11am, OSU-MD and MSU-Rut. So I doubt Iowa-PSU be at 11am and will probably be a night game if both teams are undefeated.
I hope its a night game. It would be cool to duplicate the atmosphere from the classic 2017 Iowa-PSU night game where Tracy McGrady threw the winning TD pass with no time left on the clock in a 21-19 PSU win. except this time it will be the Iowa defense that knocks down the potential game winning TD on the last play.
First things first though. Iowa has to play at MD on a Friday night. PSU has to get by a tough Indiana team. Both are dangerous opponents that easily could spoil the whole thing.
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- Penn St. - Good win over Auburn. Played tough Defense and did enough offensively to win. If I had to bet on them and Iowa, I would pick Penn St. right now.
- Iowa - Playing very well right now. As someone else said, they are a poor man's Tressel team.
- Ohio State - If they ever get the defense figured out, they will move back up. Until then, they are here.
- Wisconsin - Off this past weekend, but I still feel they are better than the rest of the teams below them.
- Michigan St - Great road win over Miami.
- Michigan - Looking good against cupcakes.
- Minnesota - Looking solid.
- Maryland - Still here due to the win over WV.
- Purdue - Hung with ND in South Bend. If they figure out the run game, they could be a good team.
- Rutgers - Is Illinois better than we thought or is this about where Rutgers belongs?
- Nebraska - Tempted to move them up with the loss, but they still lost to Illinois. Also it may be just a case of exposing an overrated OU team. Time will tell.
- Indiana - Lost at home to a non P5 team. But that P5 team is ranked as a top 10 team, so no real shame.
- Northwestern - They were getting beat 30 - 0 early against Duke. Not the sign of a good B1G team.
- Illinois - Looked better against Maryland, but keeping them here for now.
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I guess it depends on who picks first that weekend. If Fox has the first pick it will be at 11am. If its ABC, then it will probably be a night game.
EDIT: I see there are only 5 Big Ten games total that day and 2 are already scheduled for 11am, OSU-MD and MSU-Rut. So I doubt Iowa-PSU be at 11am and will probably be a night game if both teams are undefeated.
I hope its a night game. It would be cool to duplicate the atmosphere from the classic 2017 Iowa-PSU night game where Tracy McGrady threw the winning TD pass with no time left on the clock in a 21-19 PSU win. except this time it will be the Iowa defense that knocks down the potential game winning TD on the last play.
First things first though. Iowa has to play at MD on a Friday night. PSU has to get by a tough Indiana team. Both are dangerous opponents that easily could spoil the whole thing.
Penn State won again at Iowa in 2019, also a night game. Can't wait for the game this year.
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Penn State won again at Iowa in 2019, also a night game. Can't wait for the game this year.
I forgot the 2019 iowa-PSU game was also a night game. That means even though Iowa has lost only 4 night games in its history, at least 2 of those losses were against PSU.
The 2019 game may be a good predicter of how the 2021 game goes. In that 2019 game, the Iowa defense played well enough for Iowa to win, but the Iowa offense did almost nothing in a 17-12 PSU win.
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I went to that game. The atmosphere for an Iowa night game is awesome.
And you have to love the wave. I get misty eyed just mentioning it.
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I don't mind "the wave" but wish that it was more subtle instead of being their version of Wisconsin's jump around.
Now it seems more like a politician kissing babies for a photo op, instead of a genuine gesture.
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I forgot the 2019 iowa-PSU game was also a night game. That means even though Iowa has lost only 4 night games in its history, at least 2 of those losses were against PSU.
The 2019 game may be a good predicter of how the 2021 game goes. In that 2019 game, the Iowa defense played well enough for Iowa to win, but the Iowa offense did almost nothing in a 17-12 PSU win.
Actually, I posted that Iowa has a 10-4 record for night games but found another website that says it is a 13-7 record for night games, and that website posts the results of each of those games. The night games go back to 1992 when Iowa played Miami in Kinnick Stadium, a game for which I had season tickets. Some of those night games posted to their website were games starting between 5:05 p.m. and 5:35 p.m. which I would say are night games.
Penn State is a 4-time night game participant at Kinnick Stadium, and owns a 3-1 night game record at Kinnick Stadium. No wonder the Penn Staters are excited about a night game at Kinnick Stadium. It will be like a home game for Penn State. :03:
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Results posted, votes through @NorthernOhioBuckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=40) , 15 voters.
LOTS of changes this week.
Penn State is our new #1. They started out #3 behind tOSU and UW then beat UW to move up to #2 behind tOSU, then they moved to #2 behind Iowa when the Hawkeyes leapfrogged them and now they are #1. They are already our third #1 after tOSU and Iowa in this young season.
The Hawkeyes didn't fall far and are #2 well ahead of #3 Michigan.
Speaking of the Wolverines, they are #3 in a near-tie with their arch-rival #4 tOSU.
Wisconsin, Michigan State, and Minnesota are pretty spaced out at #5, #6, and #7 respectively.
Maryland is #8 not too far ahead of the team they joined with, #9 Rutgers.
Indiana is #10 not far ahead of their arch-rival #11 Purdue.
Nebraska is all alone at #12.
Illinois is #13 in a near-tie with their arch-rival #14 Northwestern.
Looking at the COTY/Hot Seat chart:
Eight teams in the middle of the conference are reasonably close to their preseason ranking. UMD, PU, M, and PSU are each slightly up while IL, UW, tOSU, and MN are each slightly down. That leaves three COTY contenders and three coaches possibly on the hot seat.
The COTY contenders:
- Michigan State is WAY ahead of their preseason ranking so COTY is probably Tucker's to lose.
- Rutgers is also well ahead of their preseason ranking so if MSU falters, Schiano could be our COTY.
- Iowa is ahead of projections as well but Ferentz probably can't win COTY unless either Iowa goes 13-0 or both MSU and Rutgers falter significantly without another upstart taking their place.
Hotseat:
- Indiana is well behind projections but Tom Allen is safe given what he did last year and generally that we are talking about Indiana.
- Northwestern is well behind projections but Pat Fitzgerald is obviously safe.
- Nebraska is well behind projections but seems to be improving. If that improvement fails to continue, Scott Frost will need asbestos pants.
I attached the Buckeyes' vote distribution just because it is so unusual. The Buckeyes are in a near-tie with Michigan for #3/4 but oddly only about a third of the voters actually think that they are #2, #3, or #4. Their votes form an inverse bell-curve with:
- Almost 1/3 of us (4 of 15) thinking they are #1.
- 1/3 of us (5 of 15) thinking they are #2, #3, or #4.
- Just over 1/3 of us (6 of 15) thinking they are #5 or #6.
The rest of the distribution is fairly normal but there is still a surprising lack of consensus. At least half of us agree:
- That Wisconsin is #4 (11 of 15)
- That PSU is #2 (8 of 15)
- That Minnesota is #7 (8 of 15)
- That Northwestern is #14 (8 of 15)
That is it.
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5) TIE - the Michigan teams. State has the W on the road vs Miami and looks good. Michigan just been shallacking everyone on their schedule. This years game shaping up to be something special.
FWIW:
I don't accept ties anymore because they don't work with the vote distribution that I started sharing a few years ago. Consequently, when someone attempts to vote a tie I put the first team that they mention first. In this case you mentioned MSU before M so I treated this as a #5 for MSU and a #6 for M.
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Scheduled games between teams ranked consecutively:
- #12 UNL lost at #13 IL by 8
- #2 IA does not play #3 M
- #4 tOSU does not play #5 UW
- #5 UW does not play #6 MSU (making UW one of two teams that plays neither the team ahead of them nor the team behind them, the other is MSU)
- #6 MSU does not play #7 MN
- #1 PSU at #2 Iowa on 10/9
- #7 MN vs #8 UMD on 10/23
- #11 PU at #12 UNL on 10/30
- #9 RU at #10 IU on 11/13
- #3 M vs #4 tOSU on 11/27
- #8 UMD at #9 RU on 11/27
- #10 IU at #11 PU on 11/27
- #13 IL vs #14 NU on 11/27
Rivalry week looks really fun!
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this is my thinking. Not sure how good anyone in the PAC is. That conference looks like it sucks pretty bad.
There is not a complete team or a standout team that is far ahead of the pack. At all. No pun intended. Washington has a defense, but an offense that is complete ass. UCLA can put up points, but they can't stop anyone. Stanford might backdoor it and take it. They'll get both UCLA and Oregon at home and they already beat the shit out of USC.
We can count out the Utes. Their starting QB quit the team so that he could enter the portal without losing the year of eligibility. ::)
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1. Penn State (3-0; 1-0; 28-20 win over Auburn)
2. Iowa (3-0, 1-0; 30-7 win over Kent State)
3. Ohio State (2-1, 1-0; 41-20 win over Tulsa)
4. Michigan (3-0, 0-0; 63-1o win over Northern Illinois)
5. Wisconsin (1-1, 0-1; BYE)
6. Michigan State (3-0, 1-0; 38-17 win over Miami)
7. Maryland (3-0, 1-0; 20-17 win over Illinois)
8. Minnesota (2-1, 0-1; 30-0 win over Colorado)
9. Rutgers (3-0, 0-0; 45-13 win over Delaware)
10. Purdue (2-1, 0-0; 27-13 loss to Notre Dame)
11. Indiana (1-2, 0-1; 38-24 loss to Cincinnati)
12. Nebraska (2-2, 0-1; 23-16 loss to Oklahoma)
13. Illinois (1-3, 1-0; 20-17 loss to Maryland)
14. Northwestern (1-2, 0-1; 30-23 loss to Duke)
rankings by Brian Chistopherson - Husker247
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1. Iowa
2. Penn State
3. Ohio State
4. Michigan
5. Wisconsin
6. Michigan State
7. Maryland
8. Rutgers
9. Purdue
10. Minnesota
11. Nebraska
12. Indiana
13. Northwestern
14. Illinois
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I added @hawkeyegold (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1793) 's vote. The change created is that now the near-tie's between M and tOSU for 3/4 and between IL and NU for 13/14 are now actual ties in both the raw vote and after removing the high and low.
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Massey composite rankings (last week in parentheses)
- Alabama (1)
- Georgia (2)
- IOWA (3)
- Oklahoma (4)
- Texas A&M (5)
- PENN STATE (6)
- OHIO STATE (9)
- Oregon (8)
- Cincinnati (10)
- MICHIGAN (16)
- Clemson (7)
- Ole Miss (14)
- Florida (11)
- Notre Dame (12)
- Iowa State (18)
- Texas (20)
- WISCONSIN (15)
- North Carolina (22)
- BYU (19)
- Auburn (17)
- MICHIGAN STATE (-)
- Arkansas (24)
- USC (-)
- Kansas State (-)
- Oklahoma State (-)
- 30. Minnesota (51)
- 36. Indiana (26)
- 38. Maryland (41)
- 41. Rutgers (48)
- 58. Nebraska (47)
- 60. Purdue (43)
- 73. Northwestern (63)
- 94. Illinois (93)
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most seemed to think the Husker's performance vs the Sooners was encouraging
Massey keeps the Sooners at #4, but dropped the Huskers 11 spots
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most seemed to think the Husker's performance vs the Sooners was encouraging
Massey keeps the Sooners at #4, but dropped the Huskers 11 spots
Not Massey, it's his composite ranking of 40 different computer rankings. Early on there are big fluctuations due to other things. Some don't come online until there's a few weeks of data, others use last year's data.
Massey's actual ranking kept Oklahoma #6, and moved Nebraska up one from #42 to #41
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OK, composite
still seems a bit odd, but as the season goes on more data is calculated
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You know it's bad when you are hanging your hat on a "good" loss.
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it's been bad