| The Spartans have managed to look a lot better offensively by controlling the game on the ground. For the first time, Payton Thorne might have to take the lead on some drives. Chase Brice completed 62% of his passes against the Canes defense last week, but for under 6 yards per attempt, and under 10 yards per completion. The Michigan State passing game has been much more vertical, so they can survive below 60% completions from Thorne, but if they fail to stretch the field, this offense is going to bog down. The gap between Thorne and his counterpart, D'Eriq King is far more narrow than anyone would have guessed early last year. Thorne was battling Theo Day to be Michigan State's #2 quarterback, while King was in the early Heisman discussion in 2020. Now King is sitting #87 in the nation in QBR; while both quarterbacks ahead of Thorne on Michigan State's depth chart transferred after Thorne passed them, and Thorne ranks 6th nationally, #1 in the Big Ten in QBR. That casts a little bit of doubt as to just how close to 100% King is after suffering a torn ACL last December. The other fly in the ointment is Alabama. Are all of the numbers so skewed by Bama accounting for half of that? Or did Alabama break them? The Canes have struggled to run the ball, averaging just 3.5 ypc, which had led to all sorts of problems in the red zone, where they have only punched the ball in twice in eight tries. The cure for that might be a Michigan State run defense whose overall numbers look a lot better than their inability to get stops when needed. Last week against Youngstown State, the Spartans defense got the Penguins into 3rd down 20 times. 13 times (65%), Youngstown State picked up the first down on either 3rd or 4th down. Michigan State is getting a lot of positive press early in the year, and the offense looks good for the first time since prior to the Connor Cook injury in the middle of 2015, but it's still a Northwestern team that bad Michigan State teams beat the last two years, and an FCS team. If Michigan State can keep up this pace on the ground, I think they can win, but against a Canes defensive line that lacks the sure fire NFL stud they had the past couple years, but can rotate 10 guys in without dropoff, I think it's a little too much to ask of Thorne. |