In a normal year, a loss to a bad Michigan State team being the only thing between Northwestern and an undefeated regular season would be a notable event. In 2020, I'm not sure anyone noticed. In fairness, while several Big Ten teams probably missed their three guaranteed wins in September, for Northwestern, given recent results, that may have helped catapult them. In 2018, Northwestern started 1-3, including an inexplicable loss to Akron at home, before going 8-2 the rest of the way, appearing in their first conference championship game, with the two losses coming to Notre Dame and Ohio State, both CFP participants. That turn was started by a 29-19 win at Michigan State. In 2017, they started 2-3, which included a blowout 41-17 loss to Duke, before winning their final 8 games. In 2016, it was a 1-3 starts, with 2 losses coming against Western Michigan and FCS Illinois State. So given a 5-12 record over the previous 4 Septembers, maybe sitting that month out did them some good. How can Northwestern avoid another slow start? It would help if Hunter Johnson looks much more like the guy who was expected to be the next starting quarterback at Clemson until Trevor Lawrence arrived, and nothing like the disaster he was when getting tabbed as the starter for the Cats to begin the 2019 season. Particularly with presumptive starting running back Cam Porter being lost for the season, and Northwestern graduating their top 4 receivers. True freshman Jordan Mosley, a 4* recruit from Alabama, who is the highest rated WR recruit in 247 history for the school, has a chance to grab an immediate role. The bigger question is how well Northwestern reloads a defense that led the conference, and finished fifth nationally, in scoring defense. Particularly considering teams moved the ball decently between the 20s (they were 4th in the Big Ten in yards allowed), they just were the ultimate bend but don't break unit, limiting teams to just 2.7 points per trip inside the 40, best in the nation. The Spartans figured out how to beat that last year, by going over the top for a 79 yard touchdown pass on the second play of the game. It also didn't hurt that one of the worst teams at holding onto the football wound up +3 in turnover differential, with 22 of the Spartans' 29 points coming off a turnover or turnover on downs. I expect the Michigan State offense to be improved, mainly from improved line play, but not enough to score enough points absent another large turnover differential. |