CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: SFBadger96 on January 09, 2018, 06:17:28 PM
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Interesting piece on Five Thirty Eight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nick-sabans-alabama-has-reached-a-new-stratosphere/
I found it interesting that one of my immediate thoughts was what a ten-year war between Carroll's Trojans and Saban's Tide would look like? Saban has the better stats (by a hefty margin), but USC is close on the list (and Bowden's FSU).
As disappointing as it is, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Saban is all that he's cracked up to be...and more. How do MSU fans feel about that? A missed opportunity, or MSU never had a realistic chance of keeping him?
Finally, though, as good as Alabama has been, I still bristle at the comments about how unbeatable it is. The Tide has an excellent college football program, but it is still a college football program. Other teams are more than capable of beating Alabama on any given day (just not as capable as they are of beating other teams, particularly not in the playoff format).
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Can't really compare across generations.As a College HC he's in the top 3 all time IMO.
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Interesting piece on Five Thirty Eight: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/nick-sabans-alabama-has-reached-a-new-stratosphere/
I found it interesting that one of my immediate thoughts was what a ten-year war between Carroll's Trojans and Saban's Tide would look like? Saban has the better stats (by a hefty margin), but USC is close on the list (and Bowden's FSU).
As disappointing as it is, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Saban is all that he's cracked up to be...and more. How do MSU fans feel about that? A missed opportunity, or MSU never had a realistic chance of keeping him?
Finally, though, as good as Alabama has been, I still bristle at the comments about how unbeatable it is. The Tide has an excellent college football program, but it is still a college football program. Other teams are more than capable of beating Alabama on any given day (just not as capable as they are of beating other teams, particularly not in the playoff format).
You cannot argue with Saban's record at LSU and Bama - he is one of the all time greats. That said, I don't look at him and wonder what if. While some say he didn't want to leave MSU, he was not a MSU lifer. Nor do I think he was the right fit for MSU/would have accomplished there what he has done elsewhere. I think there is a weird chemistry to things and that he needed the MSU experience, he needed the LSU experience, he needed the failed NFL experience.
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I don't think there's a question that he's the greatest. There's no smoke either - he's doing it clean as clean can be in this time we live in. You never hear anything so I believe he's doing it right down there.
Nobody coaching today is in the same universe. Sorry Urbs. You're not.
Paul Bryant had a great record too, but he's listed on the same page as John Wooden in my mind. And that's not a gouda thing.
Paterno comes to mind because I think he did it the right way (not getting into the Sandusky thing again here) for a long time. Parseghian? Hayes? Who else? It's hard for me to go back to Stagg and Yost because times were so different then. Osbourne? Wilkenson?
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The only argument I can make against Saban is he has gotten more 2nd chances, after his team loses once in a season, than coaches got in previous eras.
Bama may have been the best team this season, but did they really deserve another chance for the championship after they did not even win their division?
In a different era, Saban would probably have less championships. That all said, he definitely is the king of this era and makes the most of his NCG appearances.
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I've said that Saban has his program at the best possible place it can be - his every loss is an upset. That's all you can do, coaching college kids.
The FG the Bama kicker choked away at the end of regulation made me laugh, because it's a microcosm of Saban as a coach. He can preach focus, recruit like hell, yell and scream until he's red in the face, but at the end of the day it's 20 year olds running around out there. Bama got the ball back late in a tied game. The offense moved it down into FG range. They ran a few plays to spot it where they wanted it. And bam, the kicker screws it all up.
That botched FG was basically a chip-shot. Every game for Bama is basically a chip-shot. They have to royally screw it up (ie hook it) to lose (miss the FG).
So SFBadger, when you say you scoff at Bama being unbeatable, it's not about that. I think people who say Saban's unbeatable aren't articulating it precisely. What they mean to say is that something screwy has to happen in order for them to lose - something very unlikely and probably rare.
It's just a description, but it's sort of happened literally a few times as well. Manziel's corralled fumble- turned - TD.......Ole Miss' WR grabbing a long tipped pass.....random-ass stuff leading to Alabama losses under Saban. You don't gameplan to just straight up beat the Tide - you need an angle, inspired play, and good fortune.
He's the best, because his every loss is an upset, even when he's the 4 seed.
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Amazing stat. Every player he has recruited at LSU and Bama since his first season at LSU in 2000, and remained there for three years, has been on a National Championship team. Every. Single. One.
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Amazing stat. Every player he has recruited at LSU and Bama since his first season at LSU in 2000, and remained there for three years, has been on a National Championship team. Every. Single. One.
Damn. That’s some serious WOW material right there.
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As disappointing as it is, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Saban is all that he's cracked up to be...and more. How do MSU fans feel about that? A missed opportunity, or MSU never had a realistic chance of keeping him?
He's certainly all he's cracked up to be. I don't think any MSU fan looks at it as a missed opportunity. To win like that in college football you need a great coach and a helmet school. Saban could have stayed at MSU forever, and he never would have accomplished this there. I think he's meant to be at a school like that. It's a great fit.
I don't even think he would have been as successful at MSU as Dantonio was. I'm just not sure he's wired to be the type of guy to figure out how to do more with less, to accept that no matter what you do, a few times a year there are going to be teams with substantially more talent and more resources than you. Being ok with 8-4 seasons being part of the natural cycle. Yes, his best team at MSU was his last team, but it's not like they built up to that. I think that was just a great MSU team, than MSU tends to have every so often. In Perles' last three years, MSU went 5-6, 6-6, 6-5. Then in Saban's first four, they went 6-5, 6-6, 7-5, 6-6. Then they went 10-2 and he left. He hadn't done anything in his first four years to suggest any sort of trajectory change.
I was a UM, not an MSU fan when Saban was in East Lansing, and I certainly wasn't relieved he was leaving. I wasn't worried they'd do better though either. My only lasting memory was laughing that he was taking what I viewed as a lateral job, because he was scared of Michigan, and I liked that.
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He's certainly all he's cracked up to be. I don't think any MSU fan looks at it as a missed opportunity. To win like that in college football you need a great coach and a helmet school. Saban could have stayed at MSU forever, and he never would have accomplished this there. I think he's meant to be at a school like that. It's a great fit.
I don't even think he would have been as successful at MSU as Dantonio was. I'm just not sure he's wired to be the type of guy to figure out how to do more with less, to accept that no matter what you do, a few times a year there are going to be teams with substantially more talent and more resources than you. Being ok with 8-4 seasons being part of the natural cycle. Yes, his best team at MSU was his last team, but it's not like they built up to that. I think that was just a great MSU team, than MSU tends to have every so often. In Perles' last three years, MSU went 5-6, 6-6, 6-5. Then in Saban's first four, they went 6-5, 6-6, 7-5, 6-6. Then they went 10-2 and he left. He hadn't done anything in his first four years to suggest any sort of trajectory change.
I was a UM, not an MSU fan when Saban was in East Lansing, and I certainly wasn't relieved he was leaving. I wasn't worried they'd do better though either. My only lasting memory was laughing that he was taking what I viewed as a lateral job, because he was scared of Michigan, and I liked that.
^^^this^^^ I have been saying for several years the guy was born to coach Alabama.
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^^^this^^^ I have been saying for several years the guy was born to coach Alabama.
I think fit is always important. I certainly don't mean to imply that Dantonio could even approach what Saban has done at Bama.
For all the talk about how much talent he has, managing that talent is a skill. To convince guys who could go anywhere, to come sit behind 3 guys at their position that were just as highly acclaimed? To manage all of those egos? That's not something every coach could do. Some coaches couldn't handle the pressure of a helmet school. Some coaches couldn't handle the limitations of a non-helmet school. Some coaches wouldn't even know where to start on a total rebuild. While some coaches who could, wouldn't know how to elevate a good program to a great program.
Saban was a good coach at MSU, but aside from geography, it was never the right fit. I know UM fans find Danotnio "obsessed" with UM. But UM is the elephant in the state. You can't simply ignore them. The number of times Dantonio, with no context is asked about UM in interviews is comical. He has chosen to deal with that head on. Saban didn't want to. That's fine, that's not the type of coach he is. Really there's no third option though, either the disrespect eats away at you, or you figure out how to embrace it. I don't think Dantonio would know how to motivate a room full of blue chippers in any way that they would find genuine.
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I think fit is always important. I certainly don't mean to imply that Dantonio could even approach what Saban has done at Bama.
I agree with this 100%. I've said before that I believe that if Alabama and Michigan State traded coaches tomorrow both would be worse off for the switch.
Coaching Bama is not the same skill-set as coaching MSU, it just isn't. Being great at one does not mean you would be great at the other.
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I feel that Dantonio would have a much better chance of succeeding at Bama than Saban would have at MSU.
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I feel that Dantonio would have a much better chance of succeeding at Bama than Saban would have at MSU.
Well, if only because my wife could take over Bama tomorrow and they'd still be pretty damn good for like 3 years.
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Some people believe at their core that bama cheats and pays players... I don't know. I do believe schools in the SEC and old SWC are more likely than others..
that said... what I find impressive is focus he's able to put into that program year after year. Nobody.. none of the all time greats.. could keep a team that focused year after year. It's remarkable. That, in itself, is the reason why I think he's the greatest of all time.
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Well, if only because my wife could take over Bama tomorrow and they'd still be pretty damn good for like 3 years.
MD's recruiting prowess would skyrocket as helmets recruit themselves, and his Xs and Os are superior as, unlike Saban, he has demonstrated the ability to do more with less.
Saban can't win without a gigantic talent advantage. In the NFL the talent is more or less even across the board, and he was horrible at that level.
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Some people believe at their core that bama cheats and pays players... I don't know. I do believe schools in the SEC and old SWC are more likely than others..
that said... what I find impressive is focus he's able to put into that program year after year. Nobody.. none of the all time greats.. could keep a team that focused year after year. It's remarkable. That, in itself, is the reason why I think he's the greatest of all time.
I can't believe he doesn't get bored. You roll out the schedule in a given year, and what 9-10(?) games are gimmes off the bat. It's a 24/7/365 job, and really you are tested maybe 3-4 afternoons a year. I think most would have already searched for a new challenge. But he's not competing with anyone else. He's competing against himself. He's competing for perfection. I'm not sure anyone else, maybe Belicheck, is wired that way.
As for cheating? I don't buy any talk of paying players any more or less than I think it goes on in general. You want to talk PEDs, still, meh. But that's the only "cheating" talk that I wouldn't dismiss out of hand.
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What he's able to do is remarkable. You see other helmet teams that have all the recruiting advantages in the world, and they can't do what Saban is doing at Bama. Even a phenomenal coach in Meyer at OSU can't quite do what Saban is able to do.
I still think it's bigger than Saban though. It's institutional support with palatial facilities, it's demographic changes turning the Southeast into the most fertile recruiting bed of the country, it's being in a state [and region] where there's no professional sports competition so the ENTIRE state is about Alabama [and Auburn] football. And you couple that with the long history and the "helmet" appeal and it's a job that's just ready for the right coach to knock out of the park.
USC can't compete in the same sense because few people in California care about CFB, they are fighting with other in-state schools for recruits, and can't dominate the news because there's too much else going on [such as pro sports]. UM/ND/OSU can't do it because they're in a more crowded recruiting patch and the Midwest isn't as fertile for recruiting as the Southeast, and there's a lot more pro competition for attention. The Florida schools have too much parity, UGA has been plundered by surrounding states and deals with competition from pro sports, etc.
Granted, any other coach probably couldn't have done what Saban has done as well. As most of you point out, it's like he's tailor-made to excel at that job. He's been able to map out "the process" of exactly what needs to be done to take advantage of all the advantages that Alabama has. Saban is that guy. He understands the job in a way that others in the past perhaps didn't, and that understanding is what has allowed him to tailor what he's doing to perfectly fit the job.
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Saban wasn't "horrible" in the NFL, but it's obvious that it wasn't for him. He's successful in college because he's an elite recruiter, and having more talent than everyone else often disguises any X's and O's deficiencies (I do think Saban is a competent X's and O's coach, but it's not necessarily a strength of his).
And let's not forget that he didn't exactly inherit a Bear Bryant or Gene Stallings team - the cupboard was comparatively empty when he was hired. Alabama was one more bad hire away from being what Tennessee is today, or what Florida might be heading toward (granted I do think Mullens will be an improvement over the past 2 coaches, but not necessarily good enough to take them back to the promised land).
When it's all said and done I think he'll firmly plant himself as the best coach to have ever stepped foot in Tuscaloosa. He won't make fans forget about the Bear, but I don't think there's any real comparison between the two. If the Bear was Saban's successor, he'd be fired in four seasons. The SEC (and CFB as a whole) is a much tougher environment now than it was 50 years ago.
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I can't believe he doesn't get bored. You roll out the schedule in a given year, and what 9-10(?) games are gimmes off the bat. It's a 24/7/365 job, and really you are tested maybe 3-4 afternoons a year. I think most would have already searched for a new challenge. But he's not competing with anyone else. He's competing against himself. He's competing for perfection. I'm not sure anyone else, maybe Belicheck, is wired that way.
As for cheating? I don't buy any talk of paying players any more or less than I think it goes on in general. You want to talk PEDs, still, meh. But that's the only "cheating" talk that I wouldn't dismiss out of hand.
I'm not as impressed with Saban not getting bored as I am with his players not getting bored. Perhaps all that freshman talent prevents the upper classman from relaxing. I don't know. But even at USC when they were grabbing 5 star after 5 star, they had games the team looked bored. Same with Miami or FSU under Bowden. They all had runs, but nothing close to Saban. Different kids, same focus.. same results.
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it would be interesting to see everyone's top 5 coaches of all time...
take for example Bill Snyder. Does he have the success saban has in bama if he coaches there? I'd suggest no. That said, I don't think Saban has near the success Synder had at KSU if Saban was in Manhattan. If anything, I'd suggest Snyder would be closer to Saban at bama than saban would be to Snyder at KSU.
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The only argument I can make against Saban is he has gotten more 2nd chances, after his team loses once in a season, than coaches got in previous eras.
Bama may have been the best team this season, but did they really deserve another chance for the championship after they did not even win their division?
In a different era, Saban would probably have less championships. That all said, he definitely is the king of this era and makes the most of his NCG appearances.
This is a good point regarding comparing across generations.
And OAM, I'm not sure we're saying much different things. Not every game Alamaba loses under Saban is because of a stupid play or two (Auburn this year, for instance), but they are all a bunch of 20-ish year-old players; it isn't an NFL-level team, it's just a really, really good college program; perhaps (quite likely) the best of all time.
And the point about MSU/Alabama and fit is also a really good one. Though I think coaches like Meyer, Saban, Carroll, Bowden, etc. are probably also of one type, whereas Dantonio, Chryst, and Shaw are of another. Unfortunately for Notre Dame, I think Kelly is more of the latter, which is not what ND really wants/needs. But the Meyers, Sabans, Carrolls of the world are hard to find--particularly in a system that requires success at non-helmet schools to get to the helmet schools. What would Alvarez have done at a true helmet school? How would Parseghian have done if he stayed at Northwestern? Interesting questions.
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it would be interesting to see everyone's top 5 coaches of all time...
take for example Bill Snyder. Does he have the success saban has in bama if he coaches there? I'd suggest no. That said, I don't think Saban has near the success Synder had at KSU if Saban was in Manhattan. If anything, I'd suggest Snyder would be closer to Saban at bama than saban would be to Snyder at KSU.
It depends on the context. If they swapped jobs, right now, I'd imagine that Saban would actually fare better in Manhattan than Snyder would in Tuscaloosa. Why? Because Saban has rings galore, and can probably still nab a lot more 4+ star recruits than Snyder currently does. Snyder is all about developing players and grabbing JUCO/transfer kids. He'd probably recruit decently, but not nearly as successfully as Saban would.
I don't think either one would win a natty at the other's school, but I think both are capable of winning 9-10 games consistently.
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It depends on the context. If they swapped jobs, right now, I'd imagine that Saban would actually fare better in Manhattan than Snyder would in Tuscaloosa. Why? Because Saban has rings galore, and can probably still nab a lot more 4+ star recruits than Snyder currently does. Snyder is all about developing players and grabbing JUCO/transfer kids. He'd probably recruit decently, but not nearly as successfully as Saban would.
I don't think either one would win a natty at the other's school, but I think both are capable of winning 9-10 games consistently.
I wasn't thinking of them swapping today, but if saban started at KSU vs Bill going to bama early in his career.
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It's easier to see how some coaches require talent vs some who can win with less, but they do that on purpose. The more talent you have, the easier your job is.
The fact Saban keeps getting deep, talented recruiting classes is both what sets him apart and makes his job easier. Maybe Saban could win with less, but we'll never know because he would avoid such a situation at all costs.
This is certainly homerish, but an early-90s Spurrier would be confident enough and have the Xs & Os enough to win with any type of talent. I always respected him for preferring 3* kids who wanted to play for him rather than woo the 5* kids. Winning at Duke and Florida and to some extent, South Carolina is plenty of evidence for SOS.
Meyer, remember, killed it at Utah and did well at Bowling freaking Green.
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This is a good point regarding comparing across generations.
And OAM, I'm not sure we're saying much different things. Not every game Alamaba loses under Saban is because of a stupid play or two (Auburn this year, for instance), but they are all a bunch of 20-ish year-old players; it isn't an NFL-level team, it's just a really, really good college program; perhaps (quite likely) the best of all time.
And the point about MSU/Alabama and fit is also a really good one. Though I think coaches like Meyer, Saban, Carroll, Bowden, etc. are probably also of one type, whereas Dantonio, Chryst, and Shaw are of another. Unfortunately for Notre Dame, I think Kelly is more of the latter, which is not what ND really wants/needs. But the Meyers, Sabans, Carrolls of the world are hard to find--particularly in a system that requires success at non-helmet schools to get to the helmet schools. What would Alvarez have done at a true helmet school? How would Parseghian have done if he stayed at Northwestern? Interesting questions.
I think at ND he would have been great.
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I think at ND he would have been great.
I think he does, too, and despite being a legend for what he did in Wisconsin (and is still doing), he would have had a much bigger legend if he'd taken Holtz's place (and succeeded). Did Nebraska ever come calling for him? I've heard he resents ND for not doing so. I wonder about his alma mater.
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I don't think UNL did until before they hired Callahan, but that was too late at that point. And even then all they did was kick the tires.
Similar for ND (after Davie) and Miami (after Davis). He was 10-11 years in at UW, and had it rolling. It wasn't going to happen but he got a nice raise of it.
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UNL was TO and then TO chose Solich... by the time UNL actually did a coaching search, it was for Callahan. Timing...
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Interesting Thread a lot of insightful POV's.St Nick righted the ship in T-Town stepped on the gas and never looked back.As someone brought up his players don't get complacent because he'll replace them asap.
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There's something to playing the best guy who shows up and tries hard everyday.
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it would be interesting to see everyone's top 5 coaches of all time...
take for example Bill Snyder. Does he have the success saban has in bama if he coaches there? I'd suggest no. That said, I don't think Saban has near the success Synder had at KSU if Saban was in Manhattan. If anything, I'd suggest Snyder would be closer to Saban at bama than saban would be to Snyder at KSU.
That is basically the same thing as the Dantonio/Saban comparison at MSU/Bama that has been mentioned previously. I agree, if Bama/KSU traded Saban for Snyder, I think both schools would be worse off.
At the end of the day, I think this ill defined "fit" is a real thing that matters.
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What a lot of people do not understand is how hard the man works. I remember his first year at Bama he took a very limited team with no depth, no defensive linemen, some walk ons and a transfer mlb from MTSU and won seven games. He beat Arkansas, Tennessee, Colorado and Houston all who had better personnel, lost to Georgia in ot, and played LSU and Auburn close. Some of those losses were after the NCAA declared seven players ineligible because of a text book fiasco. The most telling thing about Saban that year was after Bama lost the last game to Auburn on a Saturday, on Monday he and his entire staff was on the recruiting trail. Tommy Turberville went duck hunting. I and virtually anybody else would have gone duck hunting. That is who Saban is.
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I'm not sure about this idea that Saban has won more NC's than he would have in previous era's.
- 2017: It is clearly true here. In the BCS or pre-BCS eras, the argument for #4 would have been irrelevant as both Bama and tOSU would have been out of the picture.
- 2014: Bama didn't win the NC in 2014 but they might have in previous eras. In the BCS era Bama would likely have faced FSU and frankly that would have been an easier opponent than Ohio State. Pre-BCS would have depended on how good FSU's bowl opponent was.
In the playoff era, I think it might be a wash.
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UNL was TO and then TO chose Solich... by the time UNL actually did a coaching search, it was for Callahan. Timing...
I didn't realize the Bill Callahan hire was a result of a coaching search? That was more like a want AD, after Stevie Pedey's master plan exploded all over his pleated pants. It was a pre-social media Tennessee like hiring process.
Yeah, timing is just such a huge part of life (employment). You have guys like Lombardi, who seemed like they would succeed at coaching anything, he was a pretty successful hoops coach while he waited around for a more substantive football gig. The only thing that beat Lombardi was cancer.
I think Osborne would have been successful running other kinds of offenses, he was quite adaptable even within the confines of their 'I formation' at Nebraska, but who knows. Does his personality translate well in some of the other campuses? Maybe, maybe not. He sure seemed to have an extraordinarily high level of influence over the entire 'process' at Nebraska, and enjoyed never to be seen again, long tenured assistant coaches. Could he do that elsewhere? He lost 49 games in 25 years, and only one to a team with a losing record, that's obviously a reflection of Jimmies and Joes, but also masterful preparedness. You had to 'beat Nebraska', as the T-shirts used to say all over the Big 8 (I even picked up one in Syracuse in '84, when they did beat #1 Nebraska). It should be noted, Osborne benefited from his predecessor, though those were huge shoes to fill which nearly got him run out off Lincoln later in the 70s since he couldn't beat Switzer.
Snyder is a most interesting case to consider. KSU was so far off the map of college football forever B.S., it is really hard to relate that to anything else in sports. Only four winning records from 1933-1990. 17 zero win or one win seasons. He's such a wizard. Snyder got/gets ripped for weak scheduling, but talk about a place that nobody wanted to visit. I think the only P5 visitors they hosted in the first Bill Snyder era were Minnesota, Iowa and then USC of all teams. KSU won those games. They mauled Carson Palmer, USC did make the score look close late. (That was the '02 season, when everyone thought USC was the best team by season's end.)