CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on August 17, 2021, 11:09:12 AM
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Votes through @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) , 14 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/IfA7Fd0.png)
Drop the high and low for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/z7pmdla.png)
Graphical representation of results:
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/Wd1KGCz.png)
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FWIW, here is the schedule:
https://twitter.com/BigTenNetwork/status/1357751394795741185/photo/1
Going by the AP Poll, the best teams in each division are:
B1G-E:
- #4 tOSU
- #17 IU
- #19 PSU
- #7 ORV / #32 M
B1G-W:
- #12 UW
- #18 IA
- #8 ORV / #33 NU
The Buckeyes miss all three B1G-W teams ranked or receiving votes while also missing Illinois and playing MN, Nebraska, and Purdue.
The Badgers miss the Buckeyes and Hoosiers but play PSU and M (both at home) along with Rutgers.
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I think this is somewhat more of a crapshoot than usual because last season was so odd so here goes:
- Ohio State - basically until proven otherwise
- Wisconsin - because they seem to usually be on the other sideline in Indianapolis in December
- Penn State - because they are the most recent team not named tOSU to win the league
- Iowa - because it seems like they aren't being talked about much and historically that is when Ferentz is at his best
- Michigan - because Harbaugh has to be able to get something out of all those quality recruits, right?
- Indiana - because they really looked good last year
- Minnesota - because they really looked good two years ago
- Northwestern - because Fitz usually has them about here or better
- Nebraska - because I think Frost is going to make this a decent team
- Purdue - because I don't know
- Michigan State - No idea what to make of this team
- Maryland - because I have some idea what to make of this team
- Rutgers - because I think Schiano will be decent here
- Illinois - because they are Illinois
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I probably put too much on returning a quality starter at QB. But in doing so I might push both Indiana and Minnesota up the list.
I already mentioned that I think Ohio State‘s first game is going to be a tough out. Thursday night, on the road against Minnesota who features the best running back in the league and a high-quality returning quarterback versus a quarterback who’s never completed a college pass and a team who may be looking forward to their first big test the following week against Oregon.
If there is an upset thread that will be my first week pick right there.
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1. OSU-until proven otherwise
2. Wisconsin-decent schedule
3. Iowa- should have a good year but Kirk seems to always do better when he isn't supposed to
4. Indiana-might have a fall back year but until that happens ride the wave
5. PSU-another one that might drop a bit after a few games
6. Minnesota-questions only on defense and had some nice transfer pick ups there
7. Northwestern-Pat seems to find ways
8. Michigan-if not this year Jim's seat gets real hot by end of the year
9. Maryland-might be the surprise of the East
10. Nebraska-Frost has thinned out the herd so now it should be a lot of his guys
11. Purdue-threw last 4 together in a hat and Purdue came out here
12. Rutgers-same hat deal
13. MSU-I guess they had a heavier ping pong ball in the hat
14. Illinois-Lovie would have had them higher
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This all seems very early but I guess the Neb-ILL game in week zero is just 10 days away. Gonna have to think about this a little. Like all my pre-season rankings, I am sure they will end up wrong.
Edit: I am going to start over. I will post my new rankings in new post.
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No clue after #1
- OHIO STATE - until proven otherwise
- WISCONSIN - they looked like a different team prior to their COVID shutdown
- PENN STATE - how long is Sean Clifford's leash
- INDIANA - could win up being too low, they have to stay healthy
- IOWA - can't get much less controversial than just slotting Iowa in around #5
- MICHIGAN - Michigan has plateaued, but they've kind of boxed themselves in, after which 9-4 type season are they done with it?
- MARYLAND - I think this is the team that is ready to take the biggest step forward, the question is whether Locksley can coach the talent he has brought in
- MINNESOTA - squandered a ton of talent last year
- PURDUE - they need SOME balance on offense
- NEBRASKA - need to at least play in the postseason
- MICHIGAN STATE - looking similar to Maryland, but a year behind them
- NORTHWESTERN - Pat typically figures it out, but losing his best offensive player 2 weeks before the season hurts a lot
- RUTGERS - What Schiano did in his first year back was staggering. The recruiting is picking up, but I think they take a half step backwards
- ILLINOIS - this has all the makings of a disaster of a marriage
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Last week Josh Perry was asked which LB corps he was most impressed with on the BTN preseason tour, and without hesitation he just started gushing over the Illini LBs. So they might have a little something brewing up there.
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It is funny, as I watch and compile these votes certain patterns start to emerge almost immediately. We only have three voters so far and here are the differentials for each team:
Zero (complete agreement among @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , @Benthere2 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=36) , and I):
- Ohio State at #1
- Wisconsin at #2
- Illinois at #14
One (difference of only one spot total between high and low):
- Nebraska at 9-10
- Rutgers at 12-13
Two:
- Penn State at 3-5
- Iowa at 3-5
- Minnesota at 6-8
- Purdue at 9-11
- Michigan State at 11-13
Three:
Five!!!
- Northwestern at 7-12
- Maryland at 7-12
So I guess we just have no idea what the Wildcats and Terps will look like.
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1. Ohio State - Though I think they'll drop one along the way
2. Penn State - Lots of talent, and came on strong late last year. Clifford needs some consistency though.
3. Wisconsin - A little lower on them than others, but can't drop below here.
4. Indiana - Consistently good last year even after Penix was hurt. Need him to stay healthy to contend.
5. Iowa - Not flashy, but some good substance here.
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6. Minnesota - We'll see about the defense, but I like the offense and overall state of the program
7. Michigan - Talent level is pretty good, so I can't rank them lower than this for a power ranking.
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8. Maryland - I like the direction they are going. Possible break out season after some promise last year.
9. Purdue - Some offensive weapons, but can they actually put it together for a full year?
10. Rutgers - Showed some life last year and have some momentum coming into this year.
11. Northwestern - I'll move them up if they can figure out QB. Hunter Johnson was a disaster 2 years ago.
12. Nebraska - Perhaps should be higher, but I have such little confidence in them actually producing.
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13. Michigan State - Talent level is lacking, but have some fight.
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14. Illinois - Bielema makes them interesting at least
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Indiana
7. Northwestern
8. Maryland
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Purdue
12. Rutgers
13. Michigan State
14. Illinois
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin
6. Rutgers
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan
9. Purdue
10. Maryland
11. Illinois
12. Michigan State
13. Nebraska
14. Minnesota
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- Ohio State - best team on paper
- The Wolverines - they are going to beat the Ohio Bobcats or die trying. With Solich stepping down, they just might be able to do it.
- Penn State - They will be good, but Franklin's gonna Franklin.
- Wisconsin - Their O-Line will open up enough holes to win the B1G West.
- Indiana - While I don't expect them to get worse, I don't expect the rest of the B1G East to again be worse than them.
- Northwestern - Similar concept as the Hoosiers.
- Iowa - Can Kirk have another one of his "trap door spider" type seasons?
- Rutgers - because they are trending upwards, while the teams beneath them aren't.
- Illinois - I am confident that the Bert remembers how to defeat the teams that are in the B1G West. Wisconsin Lite.
- Nebraska - This is probably too high. Helmet bump.
- Minnesota - Eh, I dunno which way they are rowing these days.
- Maryland - They will under perform based on talent.,again, with no Texas on the schedule this year for the easy early W.
- Purdue - Seems to be getting a little stale.
- Michigan State - Harbaugh can't beat them consistently, but he has his foot on their neck off the field.
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1. Ohio St
2. Indiana - Tom has them believing
3. Wisconsin
4. Penn St.
5. Minnesoota
6. Iowa - never do well with high expectations
7. Northwestern - Fritz
8. Michigan - talent
9. Nebraska - an improvement for Frost
10. Maryland
11. Michigan St.
12. Purdue
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois - tuff for a first year coach with new coordinators
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1. OSU
Until they actually lose, OSU always gets the benefit of the doubt
2. Indy
Returning a good QB and good defense.
3. Iowa
Iowa won their last 6 games of the season in 2020, including solid victories over PSU and Wiscy. Iowa's defense has been under-rated the last couple years.
4. Wisc
Wisconsin rarely goes 2 years in a row without a division title.
5. PSU
PSU won their last 4 games in 2020 after starting 0-5. But did not really beat anybody that was any good.
6. NW
If NW tries to repeat its division titles in 2018 and 2020, it will have to do it with defense. NW has lost some key people but I want to give them some respect for what they have accomplished recently.
7. Minn
Still has a pretty good QB
8. Neb
If Frost is going to turn this around, this is the year he needs to do it.
9. Rut
Rutgers was competitive in almost every game last year, A big improvement.
10. MD
Never really had a chance to get any momentum going in 2020. May have the worst head coach in the Big Ten
11. Pur
Got off to a 2-0 start, then absolutely fell apart in 2020. Has potential to be a surprise team that comes out of nowhere to win the West.
12. MICH
Michigan had a big blow out win against Minny in the opening game of 2020, but was just simply bad the rest of the year. Its only other win in 2020 was a 3OT game against Rutgers. Mich may come back strong this year but they no longer get the benefit of the doubt in my mind.
13. MSU
Team has potential and could surprise, but for now, they need to prove it first.
14. ILL
Only because they have a new coach taking over and it will take time to improve.
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5. PSU
PSU won their last 4 games in 2020 after starting 0-5. But did not really beat anybody that was any good.
Speaking just for myself, I think the Nittany Lions will bounce back quickly. Last year was goofy with the pandemic and they just seemed unlucky last year. Those five losses:
- Indiana: They outgained IU 488-211 but gave up a 2pt conversion in OT and lost by one point.
- Ohio State: They played a solid game against Ohio State being within one score in the third quarter and remember that Ohio State finished as national runner-up so this isn't a loss to be embarrassed about.
- Maryland: It may be cliche but I think they simply let the Buckeyes beat them twice.
- Nebraska: I really don't know how to explain this one, maybe they were just demoralized with their 0-3 start?
- Iowa: They had about as many yards as the Hawkeyes but turned the ball over FOUR times and well, that usually isn't conducive to winning football games.
They outgained their opponent in three of the five losses (IU, UMD, UNL) and they were close against Iowa. I think 2020 PSU was just plain unlucky.
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6. Rutgers
14. Minnesota
:a102:
- 8 Rutgers - because they are trending upwards, while the teams beneath them aren't.
- 11 Minnesota - Eh, I dunno which way they are rowing these days.
What are you two guys seeing that the rest of us aren't?
You two have Rutgers at #6 and #8 while the rest of us have them at #9, #10, #12 (2x) and #13 (3x).
You two have Minnesota at #14 and #11 while the rest of us have them at #9, #8, #7 (2x), #6 (2x) and #5.
I don't mean this to be argumentative so please don't take it that way. This is a preseason poll so who knows but on these two teams your votes are major outliers and I'm just asking what you are seeing to make you think that?
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it's natural to look back at last season's performance, but it was a COVID season
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4. Wisc
Wisconsin rarely goes 2 years in a row without a division title.
Since the inception of the B1GCG, there have never been consecutive B1GCG's without Wisconsin. They made it in 2011, 2012, 2014, 2016, 2017, and 2019 while missing in 2013, 2015, 2018, and 2020.
What is ironic is that they actually have gone two years without a division title (2012-2013) but they went to the B1GCG in 2012 as the third place team.
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yup, that sucked
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:a102:What are you two guys seeing that the rest of us aren't?
You two have Rutgers at #6 and #8 while the rest of us have them at #9, #10, #12 (2x) and #13 (3x).
You two have Minnesota at #14 and #11 while the rest of us have them at #9, #8, #7 (2x), #6 (2x) and #5.
I don't mean this to be argumentative so please don't take it that way. This is a preseason poll so who knows but on these two teams your votes are major outliers and I'm just asking what you are seeing to make you think that?
I mean everyone is in agreement that it is a total crap shoot after #1 including yourself. Even your "reasoning" for each team was based on your whims instead of your usual analytical/data based explanations.
There is no logical reason for our "whims" to be in sync, unless we are intentionally (or unintentionally) influenced by each other's rankings.
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Pretty much true. There is a lot of volatility this year due to the mess that was 2020. We all have to make decisions about some teams actually being good (Indiana?) and others that were just bad because of Covid disruptions (Minnesota, PSU, Michigan?). It's going to definitely lead to some variance in our choices.
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I mean everyone is in agreement that it is a total crap shoot after #1 including yourself. Even your "reasoning" for each team was based on your whims instead of your usual analytical/data based explanations.
There is no logical reason for our "whims" to be in sync, unless we are intentionally (or unintentionally) influenced by each other's rankings.
Agreed, but I think what medina was asking is what whims drove that decision?
Is there something that you see that makes you think Rutgers is going to be significantly improved this year? Is there something that you see that makes you think Minnesota will take a significant step back?
I think the goal here is not to chastise you for a different ranking, but to better understand what drove your rankings in case you're seeing something that others missed.
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Most have given up on Michigan, but they have some talent right? Are they the second most talented squad in the conference?
Maybe this is the year they do better than expected?
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they do better than expected or Jimmy could be out
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Yes, Michigan has the 2nd best talent. But outside of the nice opener against Minnesota, they looked pretty rough last year. It wasn't a case of bad breaks like with Penn State, they were thoroughly outplayed most games, including being very lucky to get their win against Rutgers. I wouldn't be shocked if they bounce back, but I would lean more towards a 3rd or 4th place finish in the East.
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Agreed, but I think what medina was asking is what whims drove that decision?
Is there something that you see that makes you think Rutgers is going to be significantly improved this year? Is there something that you see that makes you think Minnesota will take a significant step back?
I think the goal here is not to chastise you for a different ranking, but to better understand what drove your rankings in case you're seeing something that others missed.
They exceeded expectations last year and, while I am not exactly a recruiting buff, I was hearing up until about a month ago that they had like a top ten class going.
I don't think that they are going to be a Top 25 caliber team by any stretch, but we are talking about a Conference where 11 teams were worse than Indiana and Northwestern. Pretty much everyone here has Indiana and Northwestern taking a massive step back, so it's not like they finished 2nd and 3rd last year because they are loaded up with NFL talent or anything like that. It's a low bar to clear.
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:a102:What are you two guys seeing that the rest of us aren't?
You two have Rutgers at #6 and #8 while the rest of us have them at #9, #10, #12 (2x) and #13 (3x).
You two have Minnesota at #14 and #11 while the rest of us have them at #9, #8, #7 (2x), #6 (2x) and #5.
I don't mean this to be argumentative so please don't take it that way. This is a preseason poll so who knows but on these two teams your votes are major outliers and I'm just asking what you are seeing to make you think that
badger fans just hating Minnesota
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I am neither a Badger fan, nor do I have strong feelings one way or the other with regards to Minnesota, but everything else that you said is true.
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I mean everyone is in agreement that it is a total crap shoot after #1 including yourself. Even your "reasoning" for each team was based on your whims instead of your usual analytical/data based explanations.
There is no logical reason for our "whims" to be in sync, unless we are intentionally (or unintentionally) influenced by each other's rankings.
My reply couldn't be stated better than this:
Agreed, but I think what medina was asking is what whims drove that decision?
Is there something that you see that makes you think Rutgers is going to be significantly improved this year? Is there something that you see that makes you think Minnesota will take a significant step back?
I think the goal here is not to chastise you for a different ranking, but to better understand what drove your rankings in case you're seeing something that others missed.
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Most have given up on Michigan, but they have some talent right? Are they the second most talented squad in the conference?
Maybe this is the year they do better than expected?
This is a chart I made up from Scout rankings not too long ago:
(https://i.imgur.com/AYsh2tV.png)
This is total signees over the last five years so, at least in theory, it is a good baseline for the talent available to each program.
Obviously Ohio State jumps off the page with a lot more 5* guys than the other 13 teams combined and also more 4* guys than any other school. Thus, it shouldn't be terribly surprising that the Buckeyes have been REALLY good lately, tOSU B1G records:
- 5-0 in 2020, outright B1G-E Champion, B1G Champion
- 9-0 in 2019, outright B1G-E Champion, B1G Champion
- 8-1 in 2018, B1G-E Champion, B1G Champion
- 8-1 in 2017, outright B1G-E Champion, B1G Champion
- 8-1 in 2016, co-B1G-E Champion
- 7-1 in 2015, co-B1G-E Champion
- 8-0 in 2014, outright B1G-E Champion, B1G Champion, CFP Champion
- 8-0 in 2013, outright B1G-Divisional Champion
- 8-0 in 2012, outright B1G-Divisional Champion
- 3-5 in 2011, 4th in division
In 10 years of divisional play the Buckeyes have nine B1G losses. Five of those in the first year which was a coaching transition year for Ohio State and four in the nine years since. Also the Buckeyes have won nine straight Division Championships and five B1G Championships including four straight.
Based on this, Michigan *SHOULD* be #2. As an Ohio State fan they still concern me more than most other B1G teams because they probably have the most raw talent of any other B1G team so therefore they probably have the highest ceiling of any other B1G team. That said, their records of late certainly do NOT reflect that:
- 2-4 in 2020, 6th in B1G-E
- 6-3 in 2019, 3rd in B1G-E
- 8-1 in 2018, co-B1G-E Champion
- 5-4 in 2017, 4th in B1G-E
- 7-2 in 2016, 3rd in B1G-E
- 6-2 in 2015, 3rd in B1G-E
- 3-5 in 2014, tied for 4th/5th in B1G-E
- 3-5 in 2013, 5th in division
- 6-2 in 2012, 2nd in division
- 6-2 in 2011, 2nd in division
Michigan isn't recruiting at Ohio State's level but neither is any other school outside of Georgia and Alabama. That said, they are recruiting at a level sufficiently good that they shouldn't be pushing 20 years since their last league title (2004) and they obviously should have more than a single divisional co-championship in 10 years of divisional play.
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I've already provided a complete and total breakdown of my reasoning with regards to Rutgers. All I could do is restate what I already said at this point.
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I've already provided a complete and total breakdown of my reasoning with regards to Rutgers. All I could do is restate what I already said at this point.
Yeah, and I get it. But my counter-argument would be based on the chart medina just posted.
I think it will end up being another bad year. They may have a good recruiting class coming in, but football usually takes at least 1-2 years before that shows up on the field. They're in the same division with two teams (OSU and UM) that each have more 5* players in the last 5 years than they have 4*, teams like PSU and UMD which have significant leads in both 5* and 4* players, and MSU and IU that may be in somewhat similar recruiting over that same time period. They don't have a recruiting advantage over anyone in the division, and a division record of 2-4 would probably be the best case scenario.
I don't think there's a team in either division that I'd look at Rutgers and say "yeah, Rutgers should easily handle that team." There are more than a few where I think Rutgers would be competitive or it might be a toss-up, but none that I'd simply call them clear favorites.
If you think of a power ranking as "who would I pick to win on a neutral field", Rutgers would be somewhere between #11 and #14 for me.
Schiano in year 2 might give them a boost towards the upper end of that range, but I wouldn't suggest mid-pack.
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badger fans just hating Minnesota
Nah. I just think they lost too much talent, and I also think 2019 was a blip. The only thing I truly despise when it comes to Minnesota is the carnival barker.
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Yeah, and I get it. But my counter-argument would be based on the chart medina just posted.
I think it will end up being another bad year. They may have a good recruiting class coming in, but football usually takes at least 1-2 years before that shows up on the field. They're in the same division with two teams (OSU and UM) that each have more 5* players in the last 5 years than they have 4*, teams like PSU and UMD which have significant leads in both 5* and 4* players, and MSU and IU that may be in somewhat similar recruiting over that same time period. They don't have a recruiting advantage over anyone in the division, and a division record of 2-4 would probably be the best case scenario.
I don't think there's a team in either division that I'd look at Rutgers and say "yeah, Rutgers should easily handle that team." There are more than a few where I think Rutgers would be competitive or it might be a toss-up, but none that I'd simply call them clear favorites.
If you think of a power ranking as "who would I pick to win on a neutral field", Rutgers would be somewhere between #11 and #14 for me.
Schiano in year 2 might give them a boost towards the upper end of that range, but I wouldn't suggest mid-pack.
I have them ranked behind OSU, PSU, Michigan and Indiana in the B1G East, along with Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern in the B1G West. Yet you guys are behaving as though I am picking them to contend for a Big Ten Title.
So every team that you listed as being obviously better than them, I am in full agreement with the exception of Maryland, who are perennial underachievers that are usually down to their 3rd string QB by the beginning of October.
I just don't see how you could definitively favor any of the other teams over Rutgers on a neutral field. Rutgers is the only one of the road apples that is clearly trending in the right direction, so I parked them at the top of the dung heap for the time being. Now maybe they will take a giant step back while a Purdue or whoever else gets off to a hot start, at which point I will make the necessary adjustments. But for now I'll throw Rutgers a bone for their unexpected turnaround.
What I was expecting to get a brow beating for was picking Michigan second because a) they were hilariously bad last year and cancelled the season like a bunch of cowards, b) everyone else has them ranked low, and c) it is extremely off script for me to rank them any higher than the lowest possible spot that isn't going to make Medina's head explode. But the talent chart might explain why he gave me a pass on being so bullish on the Wolverines this year.
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I have them ranked behind OSU, PSU, Michigan and Indiana in the B1G East, along with Wisconsin, Iowa and Northwestern in the B1G West. Yet you guys are behaving as though I am picking them to contend for a Big Ten Title.
Honestly we are not. I'm not really saying that I strongly disagree, I just asked for clarification because of the large gap between you and 847 and everybody else. You may be right, I was just curious about your reasoning and you gave it and I'm good.
No need to be defensive, I said from the beginning that I wasn't being argumentative, just asking. As you noted, I said from the beginning that this year is even more of a crapshoot than most because last year was so goofy.
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I just don't see how you could definitively favor any of the other teams over Rutgers on a neutral field. Rutgers is the only one of the road apples that is clearly trending in the right direction, so I parked them at the top of the dung heap for the time being. Now maybe they will take a giant step back while a Purdue or whoever else gets off to a hot start, at which point I will make the necessary adjustments. But for now I'll throw Rutgers a bone for their unexpected turnaround.
Oh, I don't favor those other teams. I think everyone on medina's list from Purdue on down to Rutgers, including IU, is a toss up, except maybe Northwestern.
I get it though, you see an upward trend there. That's enough explanation for where you put them for me.
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Nah. I just think they lost too much talent, and I also think 2019 was a blip. The only thing I truly despise when it comes to Minnesota is the carnival barker.
They had two players drafted. Who exactly do you think they lost that would drop them all the way to 14? On the other side of the coin....they return Falelle and Dunlap on the o-line....who both sat out last year. Means Andries can move back to LG. He was shifted to RT last year because those guys were out. Entire line from 2019 returning.
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We can all agree that recruiting rankings and star ratings do mean something and usually are a good overall predictor of success. But another indicator may be how well that talent is developed and how many players end up on NFL rosters. Attached is a summary of how many players are in NFL camps right now, which is not the same thing as players that will make the final rosters, but still I do believe it does mean something.
(https://i.imgur.com/L2gA3IJ.png)
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Nah. I just think they lost too much talent, and I also think 2019 was a blip. The only thing I truly despise when it comes to Minnesota is the carnival barker.
they lost two guys only bateman who had alligator arms last year and a CB
that's losing a lot? they Gain 2x 4 star OL that did not play last year and still had the Best RB in the league
the defense got a starter from Clemson on the DL and a LB that has played 4 years and has a nose for the ball
Picked up a 4 star WR through transfer portal and that is how you say
we lost too much?
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I'm thinking defense. The offense should be fine.
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Yeah, I'm not worried about the offense.
It's the back 7 that was terrible in tight spots last year, and I've seen nothing to convince me they've improved. Winfield covered up a huge number of sins.
Ditto for the kicking game.
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01. Ohio State
02. Wisconsin
03. Penn State
04. Indiana
05. Michigan
06. Minnesota
07. Iowa
08. Northwestern
09. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Rutgers
12. Michigan State
13. Purdue
14. Illinois
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Yeah, I'm not worried about the offense.
It's the back 7 that was terrible in tight spots last year, and I've seen nothing to convince me they've improved. Winfield covered up a huge number of sins.
Ditto for the kicking game.
i think the DB's will be helped by a more functional front 7 all indications are that the 3 main transfer in's on the front D7 are playing well above expectations and will help the defense out a lot this season(time will tell) the DB's have had a strong Fall camp as well
I just do not read 2020 like some are trying to make it out. too many players out (practice by Zoom meetings)and we also had a little unrest in the Cities that affected the team (the team is stronger for it but it had an impact)
I hope I am right and the team is more competitive on the field. teams thinking the 2020 team is the one playing in 2021 will be surprised
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I only have 10 voters so far . . . We usually have 2x that.
Rankings so far:
- 1.00 Ohio State
- 3.10 Wisconsin
- 3.20 Penn State
- 4.10 Indiana
- 4.60 Iowa
- 6.60 Michigan
- 7.90 Northwestern
- 7.90 Minnesota
- 9.60 Maryland
- 10.0 Nebraska
- 10.7 Rutgers
- 10.8 Purdue
- 12.3 Michigan State
- 13.2 Illinois
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1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. Iowa
5. Penn State
6. Northwestern
7. Michigan
8. Maryland
9. Minnesota
10. Nebraska
11. Michigan State
12. Purdue
13. Rutgers
14. Illinois
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1) Ohio State
2) Wisconsin
3) Penn State
4) Michigan
5) Iowa
6) Indiana
7) Minnesota
8) Maryland
9) Nebraska
10) Rutgers
11) Northwestern
12) Purdue
13) Michigan State
14) Illinois
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Taking the 12 votes so far and dropping the high and low votes for each team, the average rankings are:
- 1.00 Ohio State
- 2.80 Wisconsin
- 3.30 Penn State
- 4.20 Indiana
- 4.50 Iowa
- 6.30 Michigan
- 7.60 Minnesota
- 7.80 Northwestern
- 9.30 Maryland
- 9.80 Nebraska
- 11.0 Purdue
- 11.1 Rutgers - Purdue and Rutgers are SUPER close. Rutgers is actually ahead 10.83 to 11.00 on raw votes but Purdue pulls ahead when the high and low are dropped.
- 12.2 Michigan State
- 13.7 Illinois
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Michigan State that low seems odd
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- Ohio State
- Penn State
- Iowa
- Wisconsin
- Indiana
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
10. Northwestern
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Michigan State
14. Maryland
I don't really know much about the teams this year. We will learn a lot about Iowa in Weeks 1 and 2. Iowa plays two ranked teams right off the bat - Indiana, then Iowa State. I wouldn't be surprised if Iowa starts 0-2, but I am optimistic they won't.
I expect better QB play this season for Iowa as Spencer Petras is a 2nd year starter, and he invested in a QB coach this summer who worked on his passing mechanics.
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I only have 10 voters so far . . . We usually have 2x that.
I know I missed the pre-season rankings last year, its just easy to get distracted until your team actually plays a game, especially with a pandemic going on. Plus as everybody mentioned, this year seems especially hard to rank any teams besides OSU.
The good news as far as power rankings go, week 1 will offer much more clarity than the typical week #1.
The winners and losers of Neb-ILL (week 0), Indy-Iowa, Wisc-PSU, NW-MSU, etc. will help sort things out after week 1.
Of course looking back to week 1 results last year produced some misleading results compared to the final power rankings. Purdue, Michigan, Wisconsin looked good in week 1 then fell apart later. Iowa lost its first 2 but won its last 6. So I assume this year it will take a while to sort things out too.
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- Ohio State
- Michigan
- Wisconsin
- Penn State
- Indiana
- Iowa
- Minnesota
- Nebraska
- Maryland
10. Northwestern
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Michigan State
14. Rutger
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Results posted, votes through @Cincydawg (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=870) , 14 voters.
Unsurprisingly, there isn't much agreement. All of us agree that tOSU is #1 and 10 of 14 of us agree that Illinois is #14. After that, half of us agree that MSU is #13. The other 11 teams we are all over the place on. Some examples:
- Four teams are receiving votes for #2 (UW-6, PSU-4, IU-2, M-2).
- No team has more than three votes for either #5 or #6 with six teams getting at least one vote for each.
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Michigan State that low seems odd
Dantonio was given way too long a leash based on prior development. After the 2016 class proved full of knuckleheads, he was done pursuing top talent. But because he was so good early on at finding/developing talent, he was given the benefit of the doubt. It wasn't that though, his staff was just out there poaching legitimate MAC recruits. Part of it was his own doing. Kentucky, and to a lesser extent Cincinnati, began scooping a lot of the under the radar Ohio talent he built his program on.
Illinois has the worst roster in the Big Ten BY FAR, but anything from #9-#13 is defensible.
It's college football, surprised happen. But any preseason rankings that doesn't have OSU #1 and Illinois #14 needs to be tossed
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Iowa
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Rutgers
13. Michigan State
14. Illinois
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Iowa
4. Wisconsin
5. Penn State
6. Michigan
7. Minnesota
8. Purdue
9. Maryland
10. Nebraska
11. Northwestern
12. Rutgers
13. Michigan State
14. Illinois
Welcome back!
I added these votes, it changes a few things:
- Purdue is now #11 in both the raw and after dropping the high and low.
- The tie for #9/10 between UMD and UNL has been broken in favor of Maryland.
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Standard deviations of votes highest to lowest:
- Michigan: This makes sense. Recruiting says they should pretty easily be #2 but the past few years (decades) of history says not.
- Minnesota: A lot of this is because of @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) 's outlier #14 vote but still they are a curious case. If you view 2020 as an anomaly and assume they are building on 2019 then ranking them as high as #5 makes sense, otherwise a double-digit ranking may make sense.
- Rutgers: I think a lot of this depends on how quickly the voter thinks Schiano can translate recruiting success and past success in current success.
- Northwestern: I think a lot of this depends on how you view the injury situation. BIG DROP AFTER THIS
- Maryland:
- Illinois: I don't get this one. From my perspective they should be close to last on this list with everyone voting them #14. Maybe I'm missing something, we'll find out.
- Purdue:
- Iowa:
- Indiana:
- Nebraska:
- Penn State:
- Wisconsin:
- Michigan State:
- Ohio State: No variance, unanimously #1
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Illinois returned a lot of players, even with the coaching change. Some folks believe in Bert in the B1G
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I'll always be a fan of Bert in the B1G. I like to have personalities among our coaches. Paul Chryst, for example, has been very successful at UW, but not as much personality. So it's good to have Bert, Harbaugh, and Franklin in the conference for the entertainment value.
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I "liked" having Steve Spurrier around for that too, but he managed to beat us too often.
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I like Bert in Champaign, if he were to move to Iowa City, it might be too much Bert for me
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I'll always be a fan of Bert in the B1G. I like to have personalities among our coaches. Paul Chryst, for example, has been very successful at UW, but not as much personality. So it's good to have Bert, Harbaugh, and Franklin in the conference for the entertainment value.
You forgot PJ Barnum.
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I always wait until after I have seen the teams at least once. They are usually quite different than or pre-season perceptions.
I think Wisconsin, Penn State, Iowa and Michigan are going to be high quality, physical teams.
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Really tricky to try to do preseason rankings any year, but coming off a a weird year and with so many teams returning so many players it could make for an even tougher challenge. Part of me thinks we are in for a repeat nationally of the 2007 year where we see a lot of movement throughout the year and really, multiple teams reach the top 10 at some point.
As for the Big Ten, the team that interests me the most besides Iowa would be the week 1 opponent Indiana. Looking at their roster and production last year, my biggest question would be the run game. If it is slightly above average from the running back spot, they will be solid. Pair that with a healthy Penix and look out.
No idea why but I think Michigan has a nice bounce back year. Scarce amount of national media coverage and expectations for this team that I am aware of, so lets see what they can do with it.
Northwestern is the team I would think takes the biggest step back just based of of returning production, but if at the end of the year they are sitting near the top of the conference I will kick myself for doubting Pat Fitzgerald.
Just cant wait to get going.
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Just an FYI:
I'm not planning on doing a week-0 update so we'll stand with the preseason rankings until after this week (week 1) games.
In week-0 only Nebraska and Illinois played so there just isn't much to update:
- Nebraska was #10 with an average vote of 9.67 in a range from 8-13.
- Illinois was #14 with an average vote of 13.20 in a range from 9-14.
This week we have four league games:
- #1 tOSU at #7 MN, Thursday at 8pm on Fox
- #3 PSU at #2 UW, Saturday at noon on Fox
- #4 IU at #5 Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 on BTN
- #13 MSU at #8 NU, Friday at 9 on ESPN
Then the other six teams are all in action as well:
- #6 Michigan vs WMU Saturday at noon on ESPN
- #9 Maryland vs WVU Saturday at 3:30 on ESPN
- #10 Nebraska vs Fordham Saturday at noon on BTN
- #11 Rutgers vs Temple Thursday at 6:30 on BTN
- #12 Purdue vs OrSU Saturday at 7 on FS1
- #14 Illinois vs UTSA Saturday at 7:30 on BTN
This week will obviously tell us a lot. We have two games between teams adjacent to each other in the rankings (2UW/3PSU and 4IU/5IA) and the other two league games are decent matchups as well. I'm interested to see how Nebraska and Illinois respond after their game. WMU could be a challenge for Michigan though that would obviously be a bad sign if they are. Maryland/WVU should be a good game. Rutgers/Temple is a decent test of Rutgers' growth. PU/OrSU is intriguing. All-in-all, I think it is a heck of a lineup and that is just in the B1G.
Nationally we have a decent number of ranked vs ranked matchups:
- #19 Penn State at #12 Wisconsin, Saturday at noon on Fox
- #1 Bama at #14 Miami, Saturday at 3:30 on ABC
- #17 Indiana at #18 Iowa, Saturday at 3:30 on BTN
- #23 Louisiana at #21 Texas, Saturday at 4:30 on Fox
- #5 Georgia at #3 Clemson, Saturday at 7:30 on ABC
Pretty darn good lineup!
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Do we want to update after week 0 or wait until after week 1?
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Might as well say where you'd move Illinois and Nebraska, since most here got those two wrong.
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yup, just swap 'em
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yup, just swap 'em
That would work for most, but not me.
9 Illinois - I am confident that the Bert remembers how to defeat the teams that are in the B1G West. Wisconsin Lite.
10 Nebraska - This is probably too high. Helmet bump.
Obviously I need to move Nebraska down a slot or three. Number of spots TBD I suppose, based on the results of the other games.
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1. OSU-until proven otherwise
2. Wisconsin-decent schedule
3. Iowa- should have a good year but Kirk seems to always do better when he isn't supposed to
4. Indiana-might have a fall back year but until that happens ride the wave
5. PSU-another one that might drop a bit after a few games
6. Minnesota-questions only on defense and had some nice transfer pick ups there
7. Northwestern-Pat seems to find ways
8. Michigan-if not this year Jim's seat gets real hot by end of the year
9. Maryland-might be the surprise of the East
10. Nebraska-Frost has thinned out the herd so now it should be a lot of his guys
11. Purdue-threw last 4 together in a hat and Purdue came out here
12. Rutgers-same hat deal
13. MSU-I guess they had a heavier ping pong ball in the hat
14. Illinois-Lovie would have had them higher
swap my spots for Ne and Ill
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1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Iowa
4. Indiana
5. Wisconsin
6. Rutgers
7. Northwestern
8. Michigan
9. Purdue
10. Maryland
11. Illinois
12. Michigan State
13. Nebraska
14. Minnesota
Switch Nebraska and Minnesota.
The latter has a chance to move up this week, subject to how it performs against the evil empire.
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I will be moving Neb down a lot and moving ILL up a little.
If Neb had a good recent history of cleaning up its own mistakes and getting better during each season, I would cut them some slack early in this season, but they don't typically get better, so I expect them to continue to struggle.
I may have under-estimated the value of the Illinois super seniors that stuck around for another year, but thats an advantage that will diminish as the season progesses. I may have also under-estimated the ILL backup QB, who turned out to be Rutgers veteran transfer Art Sitkowski, who looked really good when pressed into service on Sat. Could Sitkowski end up being Big Ten comeback player of the year in 2021? Is there actually an award like that?
I wonder if there are any other teams with a lot of super seniors and veteran transfers. I think most teams, last years seniors were just ready to move on after the 2020 year from hell.
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Yeah, I guess just move Illini up to #12 and drop Nebraska to #14 for me.
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I say leave everything the way it is... No use in making everyone update based on week 0.
Everything before what we learned this weekend is preseason. Everything we'll learn after the upcoming weekend is week 1. It just so happens that two teams will have two games to judge on.
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In recent years, you could start with one team at the top and one at the bottom and then mess around with 4-5 teams nearest the bottom in random order.