I usually use my ratings as a basis, but I'm going to try to use FPI/SP+ projections this year, since I didn't do my rankings.I did my rankings.
Those factor H/R differential, but I'm going to give other slight boosts, for night games, rivalry games, and momentum. We'll see how it goes
you got Texas too highNot my rankings, using a preseason AP projection, which is always going to overrate helmets
New coach new QB and everybody will be out to stomp our ass cause we leavin
you got Texas too highincluding conference officials tossing flags
New coach new QB and everybody will be out to stomp our ass cause we leavin
including conference officials tossing flagsPer 320, the zebras have already been paid to look the other way.
Per 320, the zebras have already been paid to look the other way.there ya go now youre catching on
Per 320, the zebras have already been paid to look the other way.pay them all ya want, the Commissar is gonna to demand 17 penalties per game for the Horns and Sooners
thank GodIt's a start. Huskers are undefeated.
pay them all ya want, the Commissar is gonna to demand 17 penalties per game for the Horns and Soonersnaw hes on our payroll too
including conference officials tossing flagsThey won't be calling the "horns down" penalty on anyone except Oklahoma.
naw hes on our payroll tooare you taking him to the SEC too?
Bitter disappointment, as Tulsa's hopes for an undefeated season are dashed!
- #4 OHIO STATE d. #22 Tulsa
Bitter disappointment, as Tulsa's hopes for an undefeated season are dashed!I'm sure they'll settle for just being the second best team in the state
Good stuff you're doing here, ELA!
:djparty:
At 1-3, with the lone win being over an FCS team, I'm already over this
- NEBRASKA d. MICHIGAN STATE
At 1-3, with the lone win being over an FCS team, I'm already over thisbut, on the flip side, I'm really interested
I think that Texas should be 2-2 at this point, ELA.Stop trying to inflate your strength of schedule
They beat Rice (evoking the eternal question, "Why does Texas play Rice?") last week and Texas Tech this week.
At 1-3, with the lone win being over an FCS team, I'm already over thisWell you've got my team at 2-2 with a loss to a directional Louisiana school and an old hated rival, so maybe you should just fix it. Fix it right now.
Well you've got my team at 2-2 with a loss to a directional Louisiana school and an old hated rival, so maybe you should just fix it. Fix it right now.It's no longer a directional school, it's the state school of Louisiana, so take that Monroe
It's no longer a directional school, it's the state school of Louisiana, so take that MonroeYou can take the directional out of the name, but you can't take the directional out of the student body.
I think that Texas should be 2-2 at this point, ELA.I think the Dawgs should be 4-0 also, but don't expect that with high confidence.
OU-Texas in Dallas coming up next.ou sucks
It would be just like 2-3 Texas to spoil OU's march toward undefeated awesomeness.
I'd say that Texas gets more of that treatment than most, though, because they are Texas.Notre Dame would like a word
If you don't believe that they're Texas, just ask 'em!
Notre Dame would like a wordYes. Good point.
Yes. Good point.Some folks have studied it. The AP Top-25 tends to be a pretty good predictor. Better than a lot of other methods.
It would be interesting to compare rankings with results over the last 30-40 years.
We need Ftbobs for this.
Some folks have studied it. The AP Top-25 tends to be a pretty good predictor. Better than a lot of other methods.The college hoops ones always vastly overrate the tournament. Every single MSU team that disappointed based on preseason ranking is due to being overrated based on an overachieving tourney run the prior year. Cool, you went 2 rounds farther than you were supposed to, on one weekend, thanks to pulling one upset, and getting to face an 11 seed that did the same. Seems like a logical thing to base your entire season off of.
Of course, pretty good is relative. Most people are wrong on more than a few things. The sport is relatively static. If 60 percent of your preseason poll is right-ish, 40 percent is wrong. Then you have a case where a team is like preseason top-5 and finishes top-12. If they won their bowl, they're basically where they were projected.
There used to be site where you could find net movement across a few years. Looking at it, USC has started ranked 10 times in 11 years since Carroll left, finished ranked higher three times. Granted, just by starting ranked at all, you have a much better chance of finishing ranked worse. Since Mack left, Texas was ranked in four preseason polls across seven years. They finished worse three times, better once, but only one of the drops was that notable (preseason No. 10 went 8-5 and finished No. 25.
And in the end, rankings exist because fans derive some kind of ... maybe not joy, but something out of them. Interest, I guess.
The college hoops ones always vastly overrate the tournament. Every single MSU team that disappointed based on preseason ranking is due to being overrated based on an overachieving tourney run the prior year. Cool, you went 2 rounds farther than you were supposed to, on one weekend, thanks to pulling one upset, and getting to face an 11 seed that did the same. Seems like a logical thing to base your entire season off of.So this is interesting to me. There's definitely the sense that a lot is based on the year prior, but I think there's a bit more to it. Namely, whenever that happens, it's always a bunch of pretty decent players coming back. Like, you have a team returning Ager, Davis and Paul from a top-15 team (that went to the FF as a 5 seed), that team should be good.
Auburn at 6-0 and Georgia at 4-2? Auburn will be 3-3 with losses to Penn State, LSU and Georgia. Georgia, in effect, has a two game schedule; Clemson and Florida. At worst Georgia will be 5-1 at this point.Not my picks, just plugging the FPI/SP+ numbers into a one game simulation
huge game for the Hoosiers!Yup!
Yup!Edit:
This season is playing out as a great one for the Sooners, but they'll probably end up losing at Baylor or FoSu. Or both.
Edit:Hah! You'll be disappointed, as your new QB won't quite be up to the occasion.
Oops, sorry, you're talking about in the simulation. Could be.
In real life, y'all are losing on 10/9 and I'll be there to see it. :)
Hah! You'll be disappointed, as your new QB won't quite be up to the occasion.
I will be quite surprised if Auburn does anywhere near this well.
Not gonna matter. Bijan's gonna run for 245 yards and 6 TDs. :)Not on our ready-for-prime-time Alex Grinch defense he's not!
ELA:Yeah, and I agree-ish. It's more the nature of how its happened. Indiana beat OSU
Are you generating the poll?
I ask because I'm surprised to see tOSU as the 2nd-lowest-ranked 1-loss team.
Do you have any concept whatsoever as to what kind of team Auburn has? If they are 10-1 I will anoint you king of all prognosticators and spend the next two days groveling at your feet.Again. Not my predictions
Nebraska--rallying behind suddenly beleaguered HC Scott Frost--knocked off the Badgers!my dream has come true
my dream has come trueFrom your fingertips to God's ears!
now if they can just knock off the Hawkeyes, the season will be a success!
Sooners vs. Horny Toads in the Big 12 CCG. I think.
- #16 TCU d. #18 Iowa State
Well, this simulated season has been weird indeed, UGA loses two games, one to Auburn, and then beats them in the CG (again). I guess I'd take it.My thoughts, which got buried above
Then somehow Indiana is B1G champion. Then somehow UNC is ACC champion.
This is going to be a mess at the top. Indiana, Oregon, Oklahoma, and UGA?
Well, 3 playoff spots are locked up.
- #1 Oklahoma, undefeated
- #2 Oregon, 1 loss, Pac 12 champ
- #3 Indiana, 1 loss, Big Ten champ
Then for the final spot
- Clemson, lost in ACC Championship
- OSU, lost regular season to Indiana, didn't play in Big Ten Championship
- Georgia, 2 loss SEC Champ
- North Carolina, 2 loss ACC Champ
I would assume the four 2 loss non SEC Champs (Auburn, Alabama, Florida, A&M) would all be out
Thoughts?
It may hinge on how bad UGA lost to Clemson and Auburn, and how good they looked beating Florida (and UK). They would have just three wins over ranked teams and two losses to ranked teams and an SEC crown. Optics.I think the committee would have an easier time justifying putting a 1 loss Clemson without an ACC title over a 2 loss SEC champion Georgia, who they beat head to head.
Well, this simulated season has been weird indeed, UGA loses two games, one to Auburn, and then beats them in the CG (again). I guess I'd take it.this would be interesting
Then somehow Indiana is B1G champion. Then somehow UNC is ACC champion.
This is going to be a mess at the top. Indiana, Oregon, Oklahoma, and UGA?
I think the committee would have an easier time justifying putting a 1 loss Clemson without an ACC title over a 2 loss SEC champion Georgia, who they beat head to head.I see it as a tough call either way.
I see it as a tough call either way.Yes, but right or wrong, I think the committee chooses the path of least resistance. I think that's why OSU got in over either TCU or Baylor. Whatever reasons they gave, I think the ultimate reason was not having to pick one over the other. IIRC one won head to head, but the other had the better resume? Can't remember which was which
Yes, but right or wrong, I think the committee chooses the path of least resistance. I think that's why OSU got in over either TCU or Baylor. Whatever reasons they gave, I think the ultimate reason was not having to pick one over the other. IIRC one won head to head, but the other had the better resume? Can't remember which was whichYeah, eye test said TCU was better and they had the more impressive resume. Baylor won the head to head by coming back from like 20 down in the 4th.
I agree that a lot of this would probably come down to the eye test. Without having that ability, I think Clemson would make sense as the team to send. It is crazy to imagine the SEC being left out completely though. If Georgia was just a 2-loss champ and didn't play Clemson, they would probably be in, but that head to head loss keeps them out.the perfect storm
Well, 3 playoff spots are locked up.With a finish like that, the Committee would pick Clemson. And jaws would drop to the floor all across the land, because not only did 2 SEC teams not make it, none did.
- #1 Oklahoma, undefeated
- #2 Oregon, 1 loss, Pac 12 champ
- #3 Indiana, 1 loss, Big Ten champ
Then for the final spot
- Clemson, lost in ACC Championship
- OSU, lost regular season to Indiana, didn't play in Big Ten Championship
- Georgia, 2 loss SEC Champ
- North Carolina, 2 loss ACC Champ
I would assume the four 2 loss non SEC Champs (Auburn, Alabama, Florida, A&M) would all be out
Thoughts?
SEPTEMBER 7 POLLUmm, Iowa can't be defeated in Week 1 and be undefeated, too. But, one can hope. In the end, it appears Iowa is irrelevant. Still, I'd love to see a rematch of Indiana - Iowa in the FBS Championship Game, which can't happen because that would mean Indiana goes undefeated in conference play, and once defeated Iowa defeats Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game, and Alabama and Clemson have 3 losses.
- Alabama (1-0) 1
- Clemson (1-0) 3
- Oklahoma (1-0) 2
- OHIO STATE (1-0) 5
- Texas A&M (1-0) 6
- Iowa State (1-0) 7
- Georgia (0-1) 4
- Cincinnati (1-0) 8
- Notre Dame (1-0) 9
- North Carolina (1-0) 10
- Oregon (1-0) 11
- Florida (1-0) 12
- LSU (1-0) 13
- PENN STATE (1-0) 17
- USC (1-0) 15
- INDIANA (1-0) 18
- Washington (1-0) 19
- Arizona State (1-0) 21
- MICHIGAN (1-0) 22
- Louisiana (1-0) -
- WISCONSIN (0-1) 14
- Oklahoma State (1-0) 24
- Liberty (1-0) 23
- Auburn (1-0) -
- IOWA (1-0) 20
WEEK FIFTEENVery unfortunate.
- Navy d. Army
Umm, Iowa can't be defeated in Week 1 and be undefeated, too. But, one can hope. In the end, it appears Iowa is irrelevant. Still, I'd love to see a rematch of Indiana - Iowa in the FBS Championship Game, which can't happen because that would mean Indiana goes undefeated in conference play, and once defeated Iowa defeats Indiana in the Big Ten Championship game, and Alabama and Clemson have 3 losses.Did they legalize weed in Iowa or something? If not, you're gonna have to keep that habit on the down low...
| . | DECEMBER 17 | |
| BAHAMAS | Charlotte (7-5) vs. Miami(Ohio) (6-6) | |
| CURE | PURDUE (6-6) vs. UTSA (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 18 | ||
| NEW MEXICO | Nevada (11-2) vs. Florida Atlantic (7-6) | |
| INDEPENDENCE | BYU (8-4) vs. UAB (11-2) | |
| LENDING TREE | Eastern Michigan (7-5) vs. South Alabama (6-6) | |
| BOCA RATON | IOWA (6-6) vs. Liberty (9-3) | |
| LA | Stanford (6-6) vs. San Diego State (9-3) | |
| NEW ORLEANS | Troy (9-4) vs. Southern Miss (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 20 | ||
| MYRTLE BEACH | Coastal Carolina (8-4) vs. Ohio (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 21 | ||
| POTATO | Buffalo (11-2) vs. Wyoming (10-3) | |
| FRISCO | Appalachian State (9-3) vs. Rice (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 22 | ||
| ARMED FORCES | Texas Tech (6-6) vs. Army (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 23 | ||
| GASPARILLA | Washington State (6-6) vs. Tulsa (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 24 | ||
| HAWAII | Houston (8-5) vs. Hawaii (8-5) | |
| DECEMBER 25 | ||
| CAMELLIA | Louisiana (10-3) vs. Central Michigan (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 27 | ||
| QUICK LANE | NEBRASKA (6-6) vs. Toledo (11-2) | |
| MILITARY | #24 Memphis (10-2) vs. Boston College (7-5) | |
| DECEMBER 28 | ||
| BIRMINGHAM | East Carolina (7-5) vs. Louisiana Tech (6-6) | |
| FIRST RESPONDER | Washington (6-6) vs. Air Force (7-5) | |
| LIBERTY | Arkansas (6-6) vs. Baylor (6-6) | |
| HOLIDAY | Colorado (7-5) vs. Virginia (7-5) | |
| GUARANTEED RATE | NORTHWESTERN (7-5) vs. West Virginia (6-6) | |
| DECEMBER 29 | ||
| FENWAY | #18 Central Florida (10-2) vs. Pittsburgh (8-4) | |
| PINSTRIPE | MARYLAND (7-5) vs. Virginia Tech (8-4) | |
| CHEEZ-IT | Florida State (7-5) vs. Texas (6-6) | |
| ALAMO | #21 Iowa State (8-4) vs. Oregon State (8-4) | |
| DECEMBER 30 | ||
| MAYO | #20 Kentucky (8-4) vs. #25 Miami (8-4) | |
| MUSIC CITY | MICHIGAN (7-5) vs. Tennessee (6-6) | |
| PEACH | #7 Auburn (11-2) vs. #8 North Carolina (11-2) | |
| LAS VEGAS | #22 MINNESOTA (8-5) vs. Utah (8-4) | |
| DECEMBER 31 | ||
| GATOR | #15 Notre Dame (9-3) vs. Ole Miss (7-5) | |
| SUN | #19 NC State (8-4) vs. USC (8-4) | |
| ARIZONA | Fresno State (7-5) vs. Western Michigan (7-5) | |
| COTTON | #1 Oklahoma (13-0) vs. #4 Clemson (12-1) | |
| ORANGE | #2 Oregon (12-1) vs. #3 INDIANA (12-1) | |
| JANUARY 1 | ||
| OUTBACK | #13 Mississippi State (9-3) vs. #23 PENN STATE (8-4) | |
| CITRUS | #10 Florida (10-2) vs. #16 WISCONSIN (9-3) | |
| FIESTA | #9 Alabama (10-2) vs. #12 Cincinnati (11-2) | |
| ROSE | #5 OHIO STATE (11-1) vs. #14 Arizona State (9-4) | |
| SUGAR | #6 Georgia (11-2) vs. #17 TCU (9-4) | |
| JANUARY 4 | ||
| TEXAS | #11 Texas A&M (10-2) vs. Oklahoma State (7-5) |
A&M kinda got hosed.Because of how quickly the Big 12 was mediocre behind Oklahoma, in Oklahoma State going to the Alamo Bowl last year. Off the top of my head, I think that should be the third place team in the Big 12. But TCU wound up in the Sugar Bowl, And Iowa State to the Alamo Bowl, to avoid sending Oklahoma State there in back to back years. They could put Texas there, but I think that would piss A &M off. And that would result in dropping Oklahoma State way down the pecking order. Maybe they just send the pokes back to the Alamo Bowl, to preserve that Texas A&m - Iowa State matchup
| . | DECEMBER 17 | |
| BAHAMAS | Miami(Ohio) d. Charlotte | |
| CURE | PURDUE d. UTSA | |
| DECEMBER 18 | ||
| NEW MEXICO | Nevada d. Florida Atlantic | |
| INDEPENDENCE | BYU d. UAB | |
| LENDING TREE | South Alabama d. Eastern Michigan | |
| BOCA RATON | IOWA d. Liberty | |
| LA | Stanford d. San Diego State | |
| NEW ORLEANS | Troy d. Southern Miss | |
| DECEMBER 20 | ||
| MYRTLE BEACH | Coastal Carolina d. Ohio | |
| DECEMBER 21 | ||
| POTATO | Wyoming d. Buffalo | |
| FRISCO | Appalachian State d. Rice | |
| DECEMBER 22 | ||
| ARMED FORCES | Texas Tech d. Army | |
| DECEMBER 23 | ||
| GASPARILLA | Tulsa d. Washington State | |
| DECEMBER 24 | ||
| HAWAII | Houston d. Hawaii | |
| DECEMBER 25 | ||
| CAMELLIA | Central Michigan d. Louisiana | |
| DECEMBER 27 | ||
| QUICK LANE | Toledo d. NEBRASKA | |
| MILITARY | Boston College d. #24 Memphis | |
| DECEMBER 28 | ||
| BIRMINGHAM | Louisiana Tech d. East Carolina | |
| FIRST RESPONDER | Air Force d. Washington | |
| LIBERTY | Arkansas d. Baylor | |
| HOLIDAY | Colorado d. Virginia | |
| GUARANTEED RATE | NORTHWESTERN d. West Virginia | |
| DECEMBER 29 | ||
| FENWAY | Pittsburgh d. #18 Central Florida | |
| PINSTRIPE | Virginia Tech d. MARYLAND | |
| CHEEZ-IT | Texas d. Florida State | |
| ALAMO | #21 Iowa State d. Oregon State | |
| DECEMBER 30 | ||
| MAYO | #25 Miami d. #20 Kentucky | |
| MUSIC CITY | MICHIGAN d. Tennessee | |
| PEACH | #7 Auburn d. #8 North Carolina | |
| LAS VEGAS | #22 MINNESOTA d. Utah | |
| DECEMBER 31 | ||
| GATOR | Ole Miss d. #15 Notre Dame | |
| SUN | #19 NC State d. USC | |
| ARIZONA | Fresno State d. Western Michigan | |
| COTTON | #4 Clemson d. #1 Oklahoma | |
| ORANGE | #3 INDIANA d. #2 Oregon | |
| JANUARY 1 | ||
| OUTBACK | #23 PENN STATE d. #13 Mississippi State | |
| CITRUS | #10 Florida d. #16 WISCONSIN | |
| FIESTA | #9 Alabama d. #12 Cincinnati | |
| ROSE | #5 OHIO STATE d. #14 Arizona State | |
| SUGAR | #17 TCU d. #6 Georgia | |
| JANUARY 4 | ||
| TEXAS | #11 Texas A&M d. Oklahoma State |
Nebraska might disagree. They spent Christmas in Detroit to lose to ToledoLet's see what Fearless says, but at least it's a bowl game. Baby steps.
This would be great for the Big Ten if it happened.
Nebraska might disagree. They spent Christmas in Detroit to lose to ToledoLord I hate the Citrus Bowl.
2022 College Football Playoff Championship
Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, IN
#3 Clemson d. #4 INDIANA
So that would make 6/7 years with either Alabama or Clemson winning it all, with each winning 3.I'll allow it.
I'll allow it.No doubt. Imagine if Baylor won a basketball national championship
Indiana winning a natty would rip a hole in the space-time continuum and may portend the end of the universe's existence.