CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on July 30, 2021, 01:33:53 PM
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Or is it coming up short in big games?
In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.
Despite being #1 in winning percentage, there are 10 schools with more NC's in the last 50 years than tOSU (2). They are:
- 10 NC's, Bama, #3 in win%
- 5 NC's, USC, #9 in win%
- 5 NC's, Miami, #15 in win%
- 4 NC's, Oklahoma, #2 in win%
- 4 NC's, Nebraska, #4 in win%
- 3 NC's, FSU, #8 in win%
- 3 NC's, UF, #10 in win%
- 3 NC's, Clemson, #11 in win%
- 3 NC's, Notre Dame, #14 in win%
- 3 NC's, LSU, #17 in win%
Starting with 1971 the Buckeyes either definitely or possibly missed an NC in the final game of their season all of the following times:
- 1972: Heading into the RoseBowl against #1 11-0 USC the Buckeyes were #3 (9-1, lost to MSU). Oklahoma was #2 (10-1) and beat #4 PSU (10-1, lost to Colorado) in the SugarBowl. Had #3 Ohio State defeated #1 USC in the RoseBowl there is a pretty good chance that they'd have leapfrogged Oklahoma and won the NC. They lost 42-17 and USC won the NC.
- 1975: Heading into the RoseBowl against #11 8-2-1 UCLA the Buckeyes were #1 (11-0 and had already beaten UCLA 41-20 in LA). Had they won they'd have won the NC. They lost 23-10 and Oklahoma won the NC.
- 1979: This was an odd year. The top-4 in the penultimate poll were all undefeated. Ohio State was #1 at 11-0, Bama was #2 at 11-0, USC was #3 at 10-0-1 (tied Stanford), and newbie FSU was #4 at 11-0. Since tOSU was #1 going in and playing #3 they'd have won the NC if they had won. They lost 17-16 and Bama won the NC.
- 2006: Lost BCSNCG to Floridia
- 2007: Lost BCSNCG to LSU
- 2020: Lost CFPNCG to Bama
Additionally, there were a number of other years in which a single loss or tie earlier probably cost the Buckeyes a NC:
- 1973: Tied Michigan 10-10 before beating USC 42-21 in the RoseBowl. Notre Dame won the NC but Ohio State was #1 prior to the tie with Michigan. Note that Michigan was also undefeated and #4 while undefeated ND was #5. Obviously if Ohio State had finished with back-to-back wins over #4 Michigan and #9 USC they would have held on to #1 and won the NC.
- 1993: Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #5 at 9-0-1. That might not sound all that close but after that all of the following happened: #1 ND lost to BC. #2 FSU lost to ND. #3 UNL lost to FSU. #4 MiamiFL lost to both WVU and Zona. With a win over Michigan and a RoseBowl win over UCLA (Wisconsin did beat them) the Buckeyes would have finished with an NC.
- 1996: Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #2 at 10-0. Subsequently #1 Florida lost to #3 FSU. Even if the Seminoles had leapfrogged the Buckeyes on the strength of their win over #1 it wouldn't have mattered because they then lost to Florida in their bowl while Ohio State beat the only other major undefeated (ASU) in the RoseBowl. With a win over Michigan and the RoseBowl win (as happened) the Buckeyes would have finished with an NC.
- 1998: This one really perturbs me because this team was phenomenal. Aside from the inexplicable loss to MSU they were hardly ever challenged all year long. They had been preseason #1 and they held that up until their loss to MSU. They eventually finished #2.
- 2003: This one is debatable because who knows what would have happened but remember that the Buckeyes were the defending National Champions which may have helped. Heading into the Michigan game the Buckeyes were #4 at 10-1. #1 Oklahoma was 11-0 while #2 and #3 USC and LSU were both 9-1. In reality Oklahoma lost their last two games (B12CG to KSU 35-7 and BCSNCG to LSU 21-14). With a win over Michigan the Buckeyes might have cracked the top-2 and made the BCSNCG or they might have ended up in the RoseBowl against USC with BOTH USC and tOSU ranked ahead of eventual BCSNCG winner LSU. Either way they could have gotten at least a split title.
- 2010: It would have been eventually vacated anyway but the only loss was at Wisconsin as #1 so with a win they would have replaced Oregon in the BCSNCG against Auburn and Oregon only BARELY lost that game.
- 2015: I've always thought this team was actually better than the NC winning team the year before but they somehow lost at home to MSU and thus missed the CFP. If they'd have gotten there . . .
- 2017: The Buckeyes lost twice but if they had won either of those games they'd have likely made the CFP. If they had beaten Oklahoma that would definitely have gotten them in by eliminating the Sooners. If they had beaten Iowa they'd have had a REALLY good loss (OU) and a league title and that probably would have gotten tOSU in ahead of Bama.
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Or is it coming up short in big games?
In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.
Despite being #1 in winning percentage, there are 10 schools with more NC's in the last 50 years than tOSU (2). They are:
- 10 NC's, Bama, #3 in win%
- 5 NC's, USC, #9 in win%
- 5 NC's, Miami, #15 in win%
- 4 NC's, Oklahoma, #2 in win%
- 4 NC's, Nebraska, #4 in win%
- 3 NC's, FSU, #8 in win%
- 3 NC's, UF, #10 in win%
- 3 NC's, Clemson, #11 in win%
- 3 NC's, Notre Dame, #14 in win%
- 3 NC's, LSU, #17 in win%
Hmmm. I think the nature of being good for a long time is there will always be some mess of big games you remember coming up short in. Like, every one of those teams with worse numbers probably has a lot of almosts as well,
Getting to that top winning percentage is more about going 9-3 a lot as much as it is finishing the deal. That said, it is fair to say that OSU didn't mine a ton from their best moments. The best late Hayes era ran through four or so title-less years with possible title teams. Then you get two titles out of 17 years of .859 ball, that'll do it.
Also, 11 teams have 45 of 54 titles. Only others are Michigan, Colorado, Ga. Tech, Washington, Auburn, Pitt, UGA, BYU, PSU.
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Osborne said it takes a little luck to get the title
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Hmmm. I think the nature of being good for a long time is there will always be some mess of big games you remember coming up short in. Like, every one of those teams with worse numbers probably has a lot of almosts as well,
No doubt here. If you've been a contender a LOT then you are bound to have come up just short a few times.
Getting to that top winning percentage is more about going 9-3 a lot as much as it is finishing the deal.
This is very true. The biggest reason that Ohio State is #1 in winning percentage over the last 50 years is that they haven't had a decade of being mediocre or worse and pretty much every other school has.
That said, it is fair to say that OSU didn't mine a ton from their best moments. The best late Hayes era ran through four or so title-less years with possible title teams.
This is so true. Prior to the "Ten Year War" between Woody and Bo, Hayes coached tOSU for 18 years. Compare those first 18 to his last 10:
Winning %
- .730, #3 nationally behind Ole Miss and Oklahoma from 1951-1968
- .806, #7 nationally behind Michigan, Oklahoma, Penn State, Alabama, Notre Dame, and Nebraska from 1969-1978
It is interesting that tOSU's win% got better but was worse relative to other helmets.
League titles:
- 5 from 1951-1968, a little better than one every four years. This was #1 in the league as no other school had more than 3 (IL, UW, IA, MSU). Michigan only had one.
- 8 from 1969-1978, four every five years. This was tied for #1 in the league with Michigan while the entire rest of the league had one combined (MSU in 1978 split with Michigan.
National titles:
- 3 from 1951-1968, one every six years.
- 1 *MAYBE* from 1969-1978 (the school claims 1970 but they lost their bowl. One every 10 years and a questionable one at that.
There was only one questionable NC from 1969-1978 but there were oh-so-many near misses:
- 1969: The team was defending NC and had been #1 all year long before losing to Michigan.
- 1970: The team was 9-0 before losing the Rose Bowl to Stanford. The sad thing for the Buckeyes is that the 1968 NC team was made up mostly of sophomores (first year players back then) and was probably better in 1969 and 1970 but they lost their last game both years.
- 1972: The team finished 9-2. One loss was 19-12 in East Lansing to an MSU team that only finished 5-5-1. Just one of those "upsets happen" things. The other was a blowout in the Rose Bowl to USC.
- 1973: The Buckeyes and Wolverines tied then the Buckeyes blew out USC in the Rose Bowl. IMHO, tOSU and Michigan were the best two teams in the country and were just REALLY unfortunate that they both had teams that good in the same year.
- 1974: Another inexplicable loss to a mediocre MSU team (7-3-1 this time) then a 1-point loss to USC in the Rose Bowl.
- 1975: This team, like 1973 was probably the best in the country. Their only loss was in the Rose Bowl to a UCLA team that they had destroyed earlier in the season.
In Woody's last 10 years he had six teams that were, as you put it, "possible title teams". I take that to mean NC Caliber or good enough to possibly win it and somehow tOSU got zero titles out of that unless you count 1970.
Then you get two titles out of 17 years of .859 ball, that'll do it.
Exactly what 17 years are you referring to here?
Also, 11 teams have 45 of 54 titles. Only others are Michigan, Colorado, Ga. Tech, Washington, Auburn, Pitt, UGA, BYU, PSU.
That shows how strongly helmets dominate. Interestingly, the last first-time AP NC was Florida in 1996. This is an exclusive club.
Osborne said it takes a little luck to get the title
I agree, but I think that is less true today. Back in the BCS and pre-BCS eras one of the biggest things you needed was to have your "bad game" in a week when you could win anyway rather than getting knocked off. For example, back in 2002 the Buckeyes played clearly NOT NC Caliber ball in a bunch of games but they were against teams like Cincinnati and Northwestern so they won anyway and kept surviving. Alternatively, the Buckeyes missed out on titles or title chances by losing to significantly inferior teams in many other years.
I think it is different now because the CFP has reduced the focus on being undefeated. Starting from the very first year, Ohio State lost their opener to a mediocre VaTech team and pre-CFP that probably would have done them in but in the CFP era that didn't end their chances.
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What is OSU's worst three year span since 1936?
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What is OSU's worst three year span since 1936?
It was clearly 1946-48, which still included a season where they finished in the Top 25 in 1948.
You could maybe argue 2010-12 on mere technicalities, but you'd be really wrong to do so, imo, as in reality only one actually constituted a "bad season."
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Exactly what 17 years are you referring to here?
The Tress and Meyer eras.
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all comes down to coaching. Ohio State has been on a serious run of excellence in coaching hires.
Woody Hayes (HOF, all-timer coach) to Earle Bruce (81-26-1 in 9 years - 75% win pct) to John Cooper (couldn't beat MI, but he was 111-43-1 at OSU- 72% winning pct % ain't terrible) to Jim Tressel (83% win pct%, 1 NC, 3 NC appearances, dominated Michigan) to Urban Meyer (one of the GOAT football coaches- 90% win pct% & 1 NC at OSU) to a young up and coming hot-shot Ryan Day (92% win pct%-).
Ohio State has knocked it out of the park with it's coaching hires. Even their two "bad coaches" Bruce & Cooper won 75% & 72% of their games while at OSU. There isn't another school that even comes close to that kind of consistency and track record in hiring football coaches.
Meanwhile Michigan's last 3 coaches?
RichRod - 40% win pct. OUCH.
Hokie - 60% win pct.
Harbaugh - 69% win pct.
Harbaugh isn't even winning at the same clip as the coaches OSU fired for not winning enough. Crazy.
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I don't know about Day yet, there is no reason to think he's bad, but he could be "ordinary", and just have inherited a fortune.
Ordinary could be good enough.
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Harbaugh isn't even winning at the same clip as the coaches OSU fired for not winning enough. Crazy.
I saw a stat that in order for Harbaugh to match Cooper's OSU career, he'd have to win three Big Ten Titles in the next seven years, beat OSU twice, win two major bowl games, and produce a Heisman winner.
Every Wolverine fan would sign up for that in a heartbeat.
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You know you’re tempting the ECFG (evil capricious football gods) with this post right?
There isn’t anything special that makes tOSU incapable of hiring a doofus head coach. The top and best helmet teams in the land have all done it. You’ve just really IMO been extremely lucky.
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In the last 50 years (1971-2020) Ohio State has the highest winning percentage in CFB. They have six fewer wins, 10 fewer losses, and one more tie than Oklahoma.
Starting to sound like Michigan 60-years ago. ;) No worries. If the Hawkeyes or Seminoles did this I would post about it too.
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I lean to thinking OSU can "tolerate" a midlevel coach for a long time. He's going to get able assisstants and recruiting should be fairly easy. They might drop to being more of a 10-2 kind of team for a while. It's tough for me to separate the situation and the coach in many cases, like with UGA. Maybe Smart is really a midlevel coach.
Maybe Day is. Urban was not.
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Starting to sound like Michigan 60-years ago. ;) No worries. If the Hawkeyes or Seminoles did this I would post about it too.
the Seminoles had a nice run
Perhaps you could remind us
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Heck with this thread ( nothing personal Medina).
Bad Karma.
If we’re doing the upset thread this year I’m picking them to lose their first game. Thursday night, on the road in a hostile environment against Minnesota, who has been planning this game for months, with a quarterback who has never completed a single pass in a college football game.
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Heck with this thread ( nothing personal Medina).
Bad Karma.
If we’re doing the upset thread this year I’m picking them to lose their first game. Thursday night, on the road in a hostile environment against Minnesota, who has been planning this game for months, with a quarterback who has never completed a single pass in a college football game.
There's NO WAY Minnesota beats OSU!
(That should do the trick...)
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Then you get two titles out of 17 years of .859 ball, that'll do it.
The Tress and Meyer eras.
Oh ok. I was trying to look at contiguous eras and the Buckeyes were:
- .824 over 17 years from 2001-2017
- .844 over 17 years from 2002-2018
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all comes down to coaching. Ohio State has been on a serious run of excellence in coaching hires.
Woody Hayes (HOF, all-timer coach) to Earle Bruce (81-26-1 in 9 years - 75% win pct) to John Cooper (couldn't beat MI, but he was 111-43-1 at OSU- 72% winning pct % ain't terrible) to Jim Tressel (83% win pct%, 1 NC, 3 NC appearances, dominated Michigan) to Urban Meyer (one of the GOAT football coaches- 90% win pct% & 1 NC at OSU) to a young up and coming hot-shot Ryan Day (92% win pct%-).
Ohio State has knocked it out of the park with it's coaching hires. Even their two "bad coaches" Bruce & Cooper won 75% & 72% of their games while at OSU. There isn't another school that even comes close to that kind of consistency and track record in hiring football coaches.
Meanwhile Michigan's last 3 coaches?
RichRod - 40% win pct. OUCH.
Hokie - 60% win pct.
Harbaugh - 69% win pct.
Harbaugh isn't even winning at the same clip as the coaches OSU fired for not winning enough. Crazy.
I mostly agree but not completely.
Coaching is definitely important but there are limits. I think Wisconsin has had just about as good of coaching as they possibly could have hoped for from Alvarez-present and they've been very good but not "tOSU good". Personally, I don't think that is because Alvarez wasn't as good as Cooper/Tressel/Meyer/Day. I think Alvarez was much better than Cooper and at least in the same ballpark as Tressel but Wisconsin's underlying situation simply isn't as good as Ohio State's. Great coaches at tOSU win NC's. Great coaches at UW win league titles . . . unless Ohio State, Michigan, or Penn State has a great coach at the same time in which case they mostly finish second.
You listed Ohio State's last five coaches and they all have winning percentages north of 72% then attributed that to Ohio State just basically being REALLY lucky in their last five coaching hires. I'm not so sure. They definitely did REALLY well with Hayes, Tressel, and Meyer but did they really hit five straight homeruns or is Ohio State's underlying situation a big factor here?
Personally, I think that Ohio State's underlying situation is a big factor. As of 2020 here are the States that the most NFL players graduated from HS in (https://thespun.com/nfl/graphic-the-10-u-s-states-with-the-most-current-nfl-players) and the P5 schools in those states:
- 194 Florida - UF, FSU, Miami: 65 per P5 school
- 192 Texas - Texas, aTm, TxTech, TCU, Baylor: 38 per P5 school
- 170 California - USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford: 43 per P5 school
- 134 Georgia - UGA, GaTech: 67 per P5 school
- 71 Ohio - tOSU: 71 per P5 school
- 60 Alabama - Bama, Auburn: 30 per P5 school
- 60 Pennsylvania - PSU, Pitt: 30 per P5 school
- 59 Louisiana - LSU: 59 per P5 school
- 59 North Carolina - UNC, Dook, Wake, NCST: 15 per P5 school
- 57 New Jersey - Rutgers: 57 per P5 school
Resorted by most NFL players per P5 school in the state:
- 71 Ohio
- 67 Georgia
- 65 Florida
- 59 Louisiana
- 57 New Jersey
- 43 California
- 38 Texas
- 30 Alabama
- 30 Pennsylvania
- 15 North Carolina
Now I'm not saying that Ohio State is in absolutely and indisputably the best possible situation. Alabama, for example, has the advantage of being solid at home and adjacent to or near other top talent states Georgia, Florida, Louisiana, and Texas.
That said, Ohio State's underlying situation is REALLY good. Ohio State is the unquestionable #1 football program in a state with a LOT of talent. In that regard, Ohio State is unique. Other schools such as LSU are the unquestionable #1 football program in their states but their states have less talent. Other schools such as UF/FSU/Miami have more talent in their states but they have more in-state competition for that talent.
I think that creates a REALLY solid underlying situation for Ohio State. Any reasonably competent recruiter in Columbus is going to get the bulk of Ohio's talent and any reasonably competent coach with that talent is going to win at least around 70% of their games (long term, not necessarily every year).
My thinking is that it generally takes a great coach to win NC's or go say .800+ at Ohio State but any reasonably competent coach will end up around .700 because the underlying situation is just THAT good.
One note, Alabama:
Right now the Tide are OBVIOUSLY #1 in the state of Alabama but that can and has changed. When they have mediocre coaches, Auburn is able to challenge that. That is a threat that Ohio State simply doesn't face. Even when Ohio State has mediocre coaches there still isn't another school that can seriously challenge Ohio State's in-state supremacy.
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I don't know about Day yet, there is no reason to think he's bad, but he could be "ordinary", and just have inherited a fortune.
Ordinary could be good enough.
My view is that even if he is "ordinary" he'll likely end up .700+, see above.
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like this...........
In six seasons, Solich led the Huskers to a 58-19 record (.753 winning percentage)
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I saw a stat that in order for Harbaugh to match Cooper's OSU career, he'd have to win three Big Ten Titles in the next seven years, beat OSU twice, win two major bowl games, and produce a Heisman winner.
Every Wolverine fan would sign up for that in a heartbeat.
Cooper is REALLY hard to understand and harder still to explain. As @Mdot21 (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1595) pointed out above, he won 72% of his games at tOSU with a record of 111-43-4. As you and I both well know he also went 2-10-1 against TTUN and 3-8 in bowls.
If you back out his record against TTUN and in bowls he went 106-25-3 in the rest of his games at tOSU. That is over .800! Now I realize that you can't just ignore those games but that isn't my point. My point is that even with his awful TTUN/Bowls record included he still won almost 3/4 of his games and outside of those he was phenomenal. If it hadn't been for his TTUN/Bowl struggles he'd have won multiple NC's while coaching tOSU for probably 25+ years.
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You know you’re tempting the ECFG (evil capricious football gods) with this post right?
There isn’t anything special that makes tOSU incapable of hiring a doofus head coach. The top and best helmet teams in the land have all done it. You’ve just really IMO been extremely lucky.
At some point it becomes difficult to attribute something to luck. If a guy flips a coin twice and gets two heads, that is probably just luck but if he flips it 10 times and gets 10 heads then something is going on beyond luck. I think the same here. I do agree that Ohio State has been lucky at least with Hayes, Tressel, and Meyer (Day is TBD) but I think Cooper and Bruce were basically "ordinary" coaches who demonstrate that Ohio State's underlying situation is REALLY good.
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Starting to sound like Michigan 60-years ago. ;) No worries. If the Hawkeyes or Seminoles did this I would post about it too.
Bowden's peak run with the Seminoles was nothing short of amazing and may never be duplicated. In 1986 they finished 7-4-1 (lost @UNL, @M, @Miami, vsUF and tied UNC) and first among "Others Receiving Votes" in the (then) AP top-20. After that:
- 11-1, #2 in 1987
- 11-1, #3 in 1988
- 10-2, #3 in 1989
- 10-2, #4 in 1990
- 11-2, #4 in 1991
- 11-1, #2 in 1992
- 12-1, #1 in 1993
- 10-1-1, #4 in 1994
- 10-2, #4 in 1995
- 11-1, #3 in 1996
- 11-1, #3 in 1997
- 11-2, #3 in 1998
- 12-0, #1 in 1999
- 11-2, #5 in 2000 (first time finishing outside of the top-4 in over a decade and they played in the BCSBCG)
14 straight top-5 finishes is unreal. The "only" won two NC's so this is similar to Ohio State in that they were consistently REALLY good but didn't get as many NC's out of it as one would generally expect.
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I totally agree with you about Ohio St situation being really good and somewhat unique. One question I have is why does Ohio produce so much talent relative to their population?
All that being said it only takes one bad coach to spin things out of control. A couple of sub-par years, lose a few key recruits, a coaching change where the new guy has to start over. tOSU is not immune like you think. Luck has definitely played a part, and using NFL talent stats is not necessarily the end all be all for success in college football.
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There's NO WAY Minnesota beats OSU!
(That should do the trick...)
You dirty Bastage.
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Even the five before Woody were pretty solid.
- Schmidt won his first four Michigan games, and two Big Ten Titles in seven years
- Paul Brown had a NC in only three years.
- Widdoes went undefeated in one of his two seasons, with only 2 losses the other.
- Bixler was their Luke Fickel, a one year band aid that face planted spectacularly.
- Fesler won a Big Ten Title and produced a Heisman winner in two of his four seasons.
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One question I have is why does Ohio produce so much talent relative to their population?
I'm not sure that Ohio does produce a lot of talent relative to their population. I think the state is somewhere close to average per-capita but Ohio has a really big population.
Looking at the states that I listed from the link in my earlier post by NFL #'s:
- Florida is #3 in pop
- Texas is #2 in pop
- California is #1 in pop
- Georgia is #8 in pop
- Ohio is #7 in pop
Georgia produces a LOT of NFL talent relative to their population but the other four in the top-5 are the three most populous states and #7. I realize that Georgia is #8 in population right behind Ohio but they have almost twice as much NFL talent which is amazing for a less populous state.
So the top-5 NFL producing states are #1-3 and 7-8 in pop. The big population states missing are:
- #4 NY doesn't produce a lot of football talent, I think BB tends to be more popular in highly urbanized areas like NYC so I assume that is why.
- #5 PA is #7 in NFL
- #6 IL, probably same as NY. Chicagoland has more than half of Illinois' population so my guess is that skews toward BB rather than FB.
- #9 NC is #9 in NFL
- #10 MI is not in the top-10 in NFL. I'm not sure why.
- #11 NJ is #10 in NFL
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Personally, I think that Ohio State's underlying situation is a big factor. As of 2020 here are the States that the most NFL players graduated from HS in (https://thespun.com/nfl/graphic-the-10-u-s-states-with-the-most-current-nfl-players) and the P5 schools in those states:
- 194 Florida - UF, FSU, Miami: 65 per P5 school
- 192 Texas - Texas, aTm, TxTech, TCU, Baylor: 38 per P5 school
- 170 California - USC, UCLA, Cal, Stanford: 43 per P5 school
- 134 Georgia - UGA, GaTech: 67 per P5 school
- 71 Ohio - tOSU: 71 per P5 school
- 60 Alabama - Bama, Auburn: 30 per P5 school
- 60 Pennsylvania - PSU, Pitt: 30 per P5 school
- 59 Louisiana - LSU: 59 per P5 school
- 59 North Carolina - UNC, Dook, Wake, NCST: 15 per P5 school
- 57 New Jersey - Rutgers: 57 per P5 school
Resorted by most NFL players per P5 school in the state:
- 71 Ohio
- 67 Georgia
- 65 Florida
- 59 Louisiana
- 57 New Jersey
- 43 California
- 38 Texas
- 30 Alabama
- 30 Pennsylvania
- 15 North Carolina
I was thinking about it and these two lists may help to explain Ohio State's remarkable consistency both from the perspective of the ceiling and the floor, allow me to explain:
There is a LOT more talent available in the states of Florida, Texas, California, and Georgia. Consequently, schools in those states may generally have a higher ceiling than Ohio State because if one school is able to dominate that recruiting, they have local access to more high-end talent than Ohio State could ever achieve.
OTOH, I think that those schools each individually all have lower floors than Ohio State because they have the in-state competition.
Consider the three Florida schools. When any one of them dominates recruiting within the state of Florida that dominant school is going to probably out-recruit Ohio State. However, Ohio State will inevitably out-recruit the other two.
Ie, if FSU sucks those Florida recruits will mostly go to UF or Miami or out-of-state. If Ohio State sucks they'll obviously lose some recruits out-of-state but they aren't realistically going to lose all of them and they aren't likely to lose more than maybe a handful to in-state competition. Thus, Ohio State's floor tends to be pretty high but their ceiling might generally be limited which would provide an explanation for why Ohio State has BY FAR the best "worst decade" among helmets over the past ~80 years but they are nowhere close to the best "best decade" among helmets over the past ~80 years.
Then there is the issue of regional competition. Michigan has certainly pulled a lot of talent out of Ohio over the years but they, ND, and PSU are the only helmets in the region and while Michigan is fairly close to the Ohio border, PSU is way over in central PA and ND is way over in NW IN. Compare that with Georgia where you have Clemson just over the GA/SC line, UF and FSU both in Northern Florida, Auburn just over the GA/AL line, and Bama not all that far away.
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- Blacks are the second largest minority population, following the Hispanic/Latino population. In 2010, most Blacks lived in the South (55% of the U.S. Black population), while 36% of the White population lived in the South.
- The 10 States with the largest Black population are Florida, Texas, New York, Georgia, California, North Carolina, Illinois, Maryland, Virginia, and Ohio. Combined, these 10 States represent 58% of the total Black population.
- Of the 10 largest places in the United States with 100,000 or more population, Detroit, Michigan, had the largest percentage of Blacks (84%), followed by Jackson, Mississippi (80%).
Players in the NFL in 2020, by ethnicity
In 2020, Black of African American players made up approximately 57.5 percent of NFL teams.
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You mean this?
(https://www.michiganradio.org/sites/michigan/files/styles/x_large/public/201109/blackpopulation_uscensus.jpg)
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Well, I look at total population more than just density. Georgia has a pretty large population that is about 1/3rd black, and the NFL is 57.5% black. Football is big here, so it makes sense the state would generate a lot of pro level players.
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The NBA is 75% black, and the SEC sucks at basketball other than Kentucky, which is their least black state.
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Yeah, and NY state produces few NFL players. Georgia prefers football by a large margin, NY state prefers bball.
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From the map it is fairly evident that southern blacks are more "rural" while northern/western blacks are more "urban."
As Medina alluded to up thread, basketball is more popular in urban areas, while football is king in rural/suburban areas.
The Columbus Public Schools had awful football, in spite of having way more black players than the suburban/rural school districts that surrounded them.
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You mean this?
(https://www.michiganradio.org/sites/michigan/files/styles/x_large/public/201109/blackpopulation_uscensus.jpg)
Not to hijack the thread or anything, but--oh, well, why not?--that map reminds me of this one from 1860.
(https://www.cfb51.com/proxy.php?request=http%3A%2F%2Ftile.loc.gov%2Fimage-services%2Fiiif%2Fservice%3Agmd%3Agmd386%3Ag3861%3Ag3861e%3Acw0013200%2Ffull%2Fpct%3A12.5%2F0%2Fdefault.jpg&hash=f8829b9151f1c69c3c1e7d769ec76d88)
It explains a lot about the events of 1860-1865.