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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on July 07, 2021, 12:17:46 PM

Title: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 07, 2021, 12:17:46 PM
Over in the tOSU offseason thread (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/2021-ohio-state-offseason-thread/98/) we had a discussion that touched on Purdue's odd knack for knocking off great Ohio State teams and that got me wondering which teams each B1G team has inexplicable struggles with.  Here is a chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/1fNFCZI.png)
How to read the chart:
Each row shows that teams' % record against each B1G team from 2012-2019.  For example, Ohio State is 1.000 against UW, 0.875 against PSU, 1.000 against Michigan, etc.  

The chart is sorted such that the best teams are at the top and left while the worst teams are at the bottom and right.  

Theoretically, each team should have their worst records against teams at the left (tOSU, UW, PSU, etc) and their best records against the teams at the right (RU, IL, PU, etc).  

What oddities stand out?

Ohio State:

Wisconsin:
Penn State:
Michigan:
Michigan State:
Iowa:
Northwestern:
Nebraska:

Minnesota:

Indiana:
Maryland:
Purdue:
Illinois:
Rutgers:

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM
Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM
Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.
I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).

The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect. 
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 08:07:48 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM
I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).

The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect.
Me too. I witnessed it first hand.
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 09:56:13 AM
not sure how or why but it seems to me that the Huskers have given Sparty trouble
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM
There's a degree to which I hear that UW has had trouble with OSU and PSU and think to myself "well, no S, Sherlock, those are two great teams!"

It's the outliers that are interesting. OSU having trouble with Purdue is interesting, because that's not supposed to happen. PSU having trouble with UNL and MN is interesting. M having trouble with UNL is likewise interesting. Nebraska themselves are weird because they oddly beat the teams they shouldn't too often, and lose to the teams they shouldn't too often. Indiana shouldn't be winless against Minnesota. Purdue, for as bad as they've been, shouldn't be 0.000 against Rutgers.

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 10:36:09 AM
Quote from: 847badgerfan on July 08, 2021, 06:57:16 AM
Interesting stuff.

NU has always been a thorn in UW's side too.
Over the timeframe that I used (2012-2019) the Badgers are 4-3 (.571) against the Wildcats:

One of the losses (2014) was to a clearly inferior team.  
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:07:13 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM
I was gonna say, the OSU thing is surprising about volume, but not much else. They have four total conference losses in that run (maybe one more in a title game?).
The Buckeyes' losses to B1G teams from 2012-2019 are:


The two odd losses are the two most recent.  Neither PU in 2018 nor IA in 2017 were anywhere near as good as the tOSU teams that they not only defeated but beat by 29 and 31 points.  The other three were close losses to good teams.  

Ohio State went 7-0 against Wisconsin from 2012-2019.  It is true that Ohio State was REALLY good over that stretch but it isn't like Wisconsin was chopped liver.  They were the second best B1G team.  It feels like they at least should have been able to pull off an upset or two.  They did get close a few times:

Wisconsin has been competitive with two OT games and several others that were competitive into the second half, they just haven't managed to come out on top.  I find that surprising simply because the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe.  

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:12:23 AM
Quote from: bayareabadger on July 08, 2021, 08:01:41 AM
The PSU one is also interesting. They’ve played four times. PSU got the two worst UW teams in the run, and the Badgers lost a game I’m still sore about to either the best PSU team in the run or close to it. The 2013 game still stings, though it had little long term effect.
The PSU/UW series is interesting.  From 2012-2019 PSU is 4-0 but all four games were competitive with the Nittany Lions winning by 3, 7, 7, and 12 points.  Oddly the three games prior to that were:

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:21:40 AM
Quote from: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 09:56:13 AM
not sure how or why but it seems to me that the Huskers have given Sparty trouble
They certainly have.  Prior to joining the B1G the Huskers were 5-0 against MSU with wins:
Those wins aren't surprising since they coincide with generally good times for UNL and bad times for MSU but since joining the league the Huskers are 4-2 against the Spartans despite not doing as well overall as the Spartans.  The six league games are:
It is odd because three of UNL's four league wins were upsets.  

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: FearlessF on July 08, 2021, 11:30:03 AM
all but 2 were tight games that could have gone either way
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:07:13 AM
Wisconsin has been competitive with two OT games and several others that were competitive into the second half, they just haven't managed to come out on top.  I find that surprising simply because the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe. 
I honestly don't find it surprising at all, in the sense that ending up "close but no cigar" several times is just statistical chance. If Wisconsin had gone 2-2 or 1-3 in those closer and/or OT games I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not particularly surprised by 0-4 -- especially against a better team. It's only if they had gone 3-1 or 4-0 that I would have been surprised, but if they had done that we might not be talking about OSU in such rarified reverence. 

I also quibble with the statement that the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe... Not because it's inaccurate. It's completely accurate, but it's not informative. The gulf in talent and results between "best" and "second best" was a chasm FAR larger than the difference between the Badgers at 2nd and probably 5th over that span. 

If you put LeBron James on a team full of high school basketball players, does it matter who the 2nd best player on the team is?
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:32:43 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM
There's a degree to which I hear that UW has had trouble with OSU and PSU and think to myself "well, no S, Sherlock, those are two great teams!"
I get it and I agree when looking at a team in the middle or near the bottom of the standings.  Of course they've struggled against tOSU and PSU because tOSU and PSU have been much better than them.  

I feel different because we aren't talking about a team near the middle or bottom of the standings, we are talking about Wisconsin!  Over the timeframe, the Badgers were BETTER than PSU and second only to tOSU.  

Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 10:03:02 AM
It's the outliers that are interesting. OSU having trouble with Purdue is interesting, because that's not supposed to happen. PSU having trouble with UNL and MN is interesting. M having trouble with UNL is likewise interesting. Nebraska themselves are weird because they oddly beat the teams they shouldn't too often, and lose to the teams they shouldn't too often. Indiana shouldn't be winless against Minnesota. Purdue, for as bad as they've been, shouldn't be 0.000 against Rutgers.
Agreed.  These are the ones that make me wonder why.  Is there something about Purdue that makes them unusually likely to pull off a spectacular upset?  Is there something about UNL and MN that matches up well with PSU?  

Finally, Purdue's 0-fer against RU is probably just due to a lack of chances.  They only played once in the timeframe and as far as I know they have only played once ever, a 14-12 Rutgers win in New Jersey in 2017.  

Purdue, of course, plays less games against the non-IU B1G-E teams because one of their three annual cross-overs is fixed as against the Hoosiers.  Also, in that 2017 loss to Rutgers the Boilermakers outgained the Scarlet Knights 474-217 but they lost the turnover battle 2-0 and their three scores were two FG's and a TD (failed 2pt) while Rutgers' two scores were both TD's.  It happens.  
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:39:03 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM
I honestly don't find it surprising at all, in the sense that ending up "close but no cigar" several times is just statistical chance. If Wisconsin had gone 2-2 or 1-3 in those closer and/or OT games I wouldn't be surprised, but I'm not particularly surprised by 0-4 -- especially against a better team. It's only if they had gone 3-1 or 4-0 that I would have been surprised, but if they had done that we might not be talking about OSU in such rarified reverence.
Agreed on all points including the "if they had gone 4-0 . . ."  
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:31:15 AM
I also quibble with the statement that the Badgers were the second best B1G team over the timeframe... Not because it's inaccurate. It's completely accurate, but it's not informative. The gulf in talent and results between "best" and "second best" was a chasm FAR larger than the difference between the Badgers at 2nd and probably 5th over that span.

If you put LeBron James on a team full of high school basketball players, does it matter who the 2nd best player on the team is?
Fair point.  Here are the overall records for 2012-2019:
(https://i.imgur.com/bGXxnGV.png)
Wisconsin was 16 games behind tOSU.  16 games behind Wisconsin would be 36-37 or just under .500 so despite being "second best" they were closer to #3 PSU, #4 M, #5 MSU, #6 IA, #7 NU, and #8 UNL so it is actually much worse than your guess of 5th.  Wisconsin was closer to #8 than they were to #1.  
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:40:18 AM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 11:32:43 AM
I feel different because we aren't talking about a team near the middle or bottom of the standings, we are talking about Wisconsin!  Over the timeframe, the Badgers were BETTER than PSU and second only to tOSU. 
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?

Regarding Purdue and Rutgers, there were definitely few chances. I guess I was thinking it was more than one because Purdue also lost to Rutgers in 2020 as well, but didn't realize you stopped the series at 2019 (which makes sense of course due to the uniqueness of 2020)...
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 03:11:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:40:18 AM
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?
That is debatable, it is close:
Against tOSU:
Against each other:
Against Michigan:
Against MSU:
Against Iowa:
Against Northwestern:
Against Nebraska:
Against Minnesota:
Against Indiana:
Against Maryland:
Against Purdue:
Against Illinois:
Against Rutgers:

Total:

On the surface that strongly favors Wisconsin but IMHO, the records against relative equals (#1 tOSU, each other, #4 M, #5 MSU and #6 IA) are more relevant than the records against significantly inferior teams (everybody else).  It is close enough that you can make a creditable argument either way.  

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 03:19:22 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 11:40:18 AM
The Badgers' record is a little inflated IMHO due to playing in the West. Are we sure the Badgers were better than PSU, or did they just play an easier schedule?
On the question of B1G-E vs B1G-W in general it is a bit of a mixed bag.  If you compare 1v1, 2v2, etc here is what I get:

My take is that the bottom of the West is MUCH better than the bottom of the east.  Illinois is a LOT better than Rutgers, Purdue and Maryland are basically a wash, and Minnesota is better than Indiana.  However, the top of the East is MUCH better than the top of the West but that is mostly just because of tOSU.  

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 03:22:57 PM
I think this basic notion is true in the SEC as well, which suggests to me we could be looking at small sample size random numbers instead of real trends.

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 04:09:28 PM
Quote from: Cincydawg on July 08, 2021, 03:22:57 PM
I think this basic notion is true in the SEC as well, which suggests to me we could be looking at small sample size random numbers instead of real trends.
You are right, most of this is a product of small sample sizes.  

The example that kicked off this discussion was Purdue vs tOSU.  From 2012-2019 the Boilermakers were .333 against the Buckeyes which is a LOT better than one would expect considering that the Boilermakers were just .265 in all B1G games.  Ie, the Boilermakers did BETTER against tOSU than they did against the average B1G team which is downright shocking considering that the Buckeyes were .932 in B1G games and far-and-away the best team in the B1G.  The Boilermakers did better against Ohio State than they did against:

All of that said, PU's .333 against tOSU was one win in three games (1-2) so we are effectively talking about a sample size of one.  Their one upset of the Buckeyes is the oddity.  
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:28:54 PM
Quote from: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 04:09:28 PM
All of that said, PU's .333 against tOSU was one win in three games (1-2) so we are effectively talking about a sample size of one.  Their one upset of the Buckeyes is the oddity. 
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.

Purdue was a pretty respectable team up until 2008, but in no world has Purdue had anywhere near the recruiting or general success to be that good against OSU. Purdue beat Tressel twice and Urban once, and had two other VERY close games against Tressel back in the Tiller era. 

Along the same lines, Purdue hasn't beaten Wisconsin since 2003, so that makes Purdue 0 of the last 14 against Wisconsin. VERY few of those games have even been anywhere near close. 

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 08, 2021, 05:54:14 PM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:28:54 PM
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.

Purdue was a pretty respectable team up until 2008, but in no world has Purdue had anywhere near the recruiting or general success to be that good against OSU. Purdue beat Tressel twice and Urban once, and had two other VERY close games against Tressel back in the Tiller era.

Along the same lines, Purdue hasn't beaten Wisconsin since 2003, so that makes Purdue 0 of the last 14 against Wisconsin. VERY few of those games have even been anywhere near close.
Purdue's record against B1G opponents from 2000-2019:

This list generally reads from the worst B1G teams at the top to the best at the bottom with two major exceptions:

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 08, 2021, 09:35:19 PM
OSU's Achilles heel has always been the bubble screens, and Purdue runs nothing but. 
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Hawkinole on July 09, 2021, 01:48:51 AM
Will www.stassen.com and James Howell, no longer update their websites? They have not posted 2020 results. I enjoy viewing series records. I guess I am getting old. I am morphing into Lee Corso.
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 08:30:29 AM
Yeah, over a long period, Purdue has more success against OSU than anyone would suspect beforehand, that probably is not a fluke.
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 09, 2021, 09:31:47 AM
Quote from: Hawkinole on July 09, 2021, 01:48:51 AM
Will www.stassen.com and James Howell, no longer update their websites? They have not posted 2020 results. I enjoy viewing series records. I guess I am getting old. I am morphing into Lee Corso.
I have been wondering the same thing.  The 2020 games are actually in the system but they aren't in the database (if that makes sense).  

Example, tOSU vs IU:
If you go to the head-to-head records tab and select:

The results displayed state that Indiana is 12-76-5 all time against Ohio State with the first game in 1901 and the last game in 2019 made up of:

That is wrong because the Buckeyes and Hoosiers played in Columbus in 2020 (tOSU won 42-35).  

Here is the weird part:
Under the totals listed above it displays each game by year along with Ohio State's record that year (Indiana's record if you switch first/second teams above).  If you click on Ohio State next to the 2019 it pulls up Ohio State's seasons and if you scroll up you can see their 2020 season.  All eight 2020 games are entered:
So somebody updated the system with the games but 2020 isn't included in the database so Ohio State's all-time record against each of those eight teams is off by one game if you just look it up from the head-to-head records tab.  

It seems like the time consuming part (entering the game results) has already been done so hopefully they'll fix the database soon!

Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on July 09, 2021, 10:36:49 AM
Danny Hope (2009-12) was the one that really magnifies the Purdue-OSU factor. They played each other all four years that Hope coached the Boilers. He had two wins and a close loss (7pts) vs only one blowout loss (vacated). But he didn't do very well against the rest of the league, being shown the door after just 4 years. He had Hoke syndrome, where he could really get his guys up for OSU but struggled otherwise. 

Now you take that out of there, and Purdue is still no slouch against OSU, 3-6 with each of the three wins at the expense of a different OSU HoF HC; John Cooper (2000), Jim Tressel (2004) and Urban Meyer (2018). So it wasn't ALL Hope. But a lot if it was Hope. The Tiller ones in 2000 and 04 are not all that alarming, Purdue won the Big Ten in 2000 with Drew Brees for example, while John Cooper was putting together a season that would get himself fired. 
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: Cincydawg on July 09, 2021, 11:37:51 AM
Quote from: Brutus Buckeye on July 08, 2021, 09:35:19 PM
OSU's Achilles heel has always been the bubble screens, and Purdue runs nothing but.
Sounds like OSU should avoid playing The Pirate's  teams.  Not really bubble screens mostly but quick short passes that drive defenses crazy.
Title: Re: Teams that each B1G team struggles with more than they should
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on July 11, 2021, 11:17:36 AM
Quote from: betarhoalphadelta on July 08, 2021, 05:28:54 PM
I would venture to say that it was your decision to go by the 2012-2019 time frame.

Purdue's success against OSU is much longer, with wins in 2000, 2004, 2009, 2011 (Fickell mulligan for OSU there) and 2018. That's 5 wins in 13 tries, for 0.384 win percentage.
The Purdue/Ohio State series generally:

It is a little odd.  Ohio State joined the league in 1913 and Purdue, of course, was a charter member so the two schools have been in the same conference for well over 100 years but they have only played 57 times:

Purdue's run of upsets didn't really start until this century.  From 1967-1999 The Buckeyes went 19-4 (.826) against the Boilermakers which is about what you would expect given how the two teams performed generally over that stretch.  

From 2000 through the present the Boilermakers are 5-8 against the Buckeyes (.385) that is unusually good considering how much better the Buckeyes have been overall.  Consider:

Of Purdue's five wins over tOSU from 2000-present only three times could you reasonably argue that PU was as good or better:
The other two were shocking upsets: