CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on April 27, 2021, 11:36:23 AM
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B1G States in the 2020 Census:
- #5 Pennsylvania, 13.0M, up 309k or 2.4%. PA passed IL since 2010.
- #6 Illinois, 12.8M, down 8k or 0.06%. Passed by PA since 2010.
- #7 Ohio, 11.8M, up 272k or 2.4%. No change, Ohio has been #7 since being passed by Florida in the 1990 census.
- #10 Michigan, 10.1M, up 201k or 2.0%. Passed by GA and NC since 2010.
- #11 New Jersey, 9.3M, up 503k or 5.7%. No change, New Jersey has been #11 since being passed by GA and NC in the 2010 census.
- #17 Indiana, 6.8M, up 306k or 4.7%. IN was passed by TN and AZ since 2010.
- #18 Maryland, 6.2M, up 412k or 7.1%. MD passed MO since 2010.
- #20 Wisconsin, 5.9M, up 210k or 3.7%. No change, Wisconsin has been #20 since being passed by AZ and MD in the 2010 census.
- #22 Minnesota, 5.7M, up 406k or 7.7%. Passed by CO since 2010.
- #31 Iowa, 3.2M, up 146k or 4.8%. Passed by UT since 2010.
- #37 Nebraska, 2.0M, up 137k or 7.5%. Passed WV since 2010.
Population of the US as a whole grew by 7.2% so in the B1G only MN and NE are growing faster than the country. Maryland is roughly equal to the country as a whole and the rest of the B1G States are losing population relative to the country as a whole.
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This of course is not a new trend. Georgia will pass Ohio in population at some point.
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Florida being more populous than New York is astounding to me. When I first visited Florida as a boy in the 1970's Ohio was still more populous than Florida and New York had nearly twice Florida's population.
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(https://i.imgur.com/xrOHK5F.png)
U.S. States comparison: Ohio vs Georgia Population 2021 | countryeconomy.com (https://countryeconomy.com/countries/usa-states/compare/ohio/georgia?sc=XE23)
The link above is kind of handy. Georgia had higher GDP per pop than Ohio which I would not have guessed.
10.6 million vs 11.7 million in 2019, probably hit even by 2030.
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FL flew by NY, by 2 million people, or 10%, into 3rd.
GA and NC will pass OH by 2040.
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FL still has basically exponential growth potential for the foreseeable future, too, as the gulf coast is largely empty. FL has doubled in the past 25 years and the longer of its two coasts hasn't been built up yet.
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This of course is not a new trend. Georgia will pass Ohio in population at some point.
True and that too is a humongous change in a generation or two. When my dad visited his relatives in Atlanta in the 1940's Atlanta was less populous than Akron and Georgia's population was well under half of Ohio's.
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There's a fun sporcle on top 10 US cities by population by decade going back into the 1800s. There are some now-obscure midwestern cities back in the day that made the list.
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GA and NC will pass OH by 2040.
I was looking at that to project when it will happen. Using the 2010-2020 growth (raw not %):
- #7 Ohio, 11.809M, grew by 0.272M, projects to 12.081 in 2030 and 12.353 in 2040.
- #8 Georgia, 10.725M, grew by 1.038M, projects to 11.763M in 2030 and 12.801 in 2040.
- #9 North Carolina, 10.454M, grew by 0.918M, projects to 11.372M in 2030 and 12.290M in 2040.
Georgia will almost certainly pass Ohio during the 2030's but it could be very close between Ohio and North Carolina for #8 in the 2040 census.
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Chicago going to get caught by Houston any day now.
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The census is all jacked up because of covid. A lot of people are moving out of cities into low density areas if they have the ability to work from home, or for a myriad of other reasons.
I definitely didn't get counted this time around.
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And again, CA is not like IL or NY... That "shithole" of a "failed state" grew by a percentage basis faster than all Big Ten states except MD, MN, and NE, and equal to NJ. Given its population, it's probably grown on an actual total population basis by more than all 4 of those states combined.
As it relates to the B1G, this is why Purdue and Indiana are doomed demographically. We're in a basketball-crazed state with 3 P5-level football programs (one helmet, obv not PU/IU) and only 6.8M people, and immediately surrounded by two helmets is UM and OSU. Trying to keep the top recruits in-state and not at Notre Dame is difficult, and there just aren't enough to go around.
- Illinois is a bigger state, with only two P5 programs. Despite negative population growth, they're fine. They also have an additional geographic barrier of several hundred miles from UM/OSU.
- Wisconsin is a smaller state, but with only one P5 program and additional geographic barrier from the helmets. So they're fine. Same with Minnesota, who can also draw from the Dakotas which have zero P5 programs.
- Iowa is in trouble. Small state, two P5 programs, and with Nebraska still having some helmet appeal on their border.
- Nebraska is potentially in trouble. Tiny state, and while they're the only P5 program, it's just not a lot of people. They MUST be able to recruit nationally in order to keep relevant. They're still a helmet, but for how long if they don't start winning the B1G West consistently?
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Ohio's population rank history:
- #13 in the 1810 census with 231k
- #5 in the 1820 census with 581k. Passed KY, MA, SC, TN, MD, GA, NJ, CT.
- #4 in the 1830 census with 938k. Passed NC. This is ironic since now it looks like NC will pass back ahead of Ohio about 200 years after being passed by Ohio.
- #3 in the 1840 census with 1.5M. Passed VA. This is ironic same as NC above.
- #3 in the 1850 census with 2.0M.
- #3 in the 1860 census with 2.3M.
- #3 in the 1870 census with 2.7M.
- #3 in the 1880 census with 3.2M.
- #4 in the 1890 census with 3.7M. Passed by IL.
- #4 in the 1900 census with 4.2M.
- #4 in the 1910 census with 4.8M.
- #4 in the 1920 census with 5.8M.
- #4 in the 1930 census with 6.6M.
- #4 in the 1940 census with 6.9M. California was #5 with 225 less people than Ohio. Between the 1930 and 1940 census CA grew by about 337 people per day while OH grew by about 71 people per day. Assuming that everything was exactly correct, Ohio had 225 more people than California on April 1, 1940 and California passed Ohio on April 2, 1940.
- #5 in the 1950 census with 7.9M. Passed by CA.
- #5 in the 1960 census with 9.7M.
- #6 in the 1970 census with 10.7M. Passed by TX.
- #6 in the 1980 census with 10.8M.
- #7 in the 1990 census with 10.8M. Passed by FL.
- #7 in the 2000 census with 11.4M.
- #7 in the 2010 census with 11.5M.
- #7 in the 2020 census with 11.8M.
In the 1840 census Ohio passed Virginia to move to #3 behind #1 NY and #2 PA. Ohio hasn't passed a state since.
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here, good luck
https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/historicaluscitypops (https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/historicaluscitypops)
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here, good luck
https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/historicaluscitypops (https://www.sporcle.com/games/g/historicaluscitypops)
Fun quiz, I got 73% which is apparently better than the 68% average. I missed:
- Northern Liberties, PA. WTF? This was #6 in 1800. I had to Google it, it was adjacent to Philly and absorbed by Philly in 1854.
- Southwark, PA. Another former Philly suburb, absorbed in 1854.
- Salem, MA. I should have guessed this one but since the population is only about 40k today I don't think of it as a major city.
- Providence, RI. I meant to guess this and thought that I did, but oops.
- Norfolk, VA. I was trying to think of a large Virginia city. I guessed Richmond.
- Brooklyn, NY. I completely forgot that the five Burroughs of NY used to be separate cities. Oops.
- Spring Garden, PA. Another former Philly suburb.
- Albany, NY. I really should have gotten this one because the impact of the Erie Canal on the economy and settlement of the Midwestern US is an historical interest of mine. Oops.
- Buffalo, NY. See above.
- Detroit, MI. I was thinking old and didn't recognize that this list went up to 1950, Oops.
- Washington, DC. See above.
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I think beyond population is:
1. Quality of HS programs in the state, and
2. Fervor for football in the state.
New York is not a hotbed for football recruits. Georgia is, not only because of population, but because of enthusiasm for the sport which means money going into HS coffers which means better programs and training.
I'd guess nearly every top Ohio HS player dreams of playing at OSU (some ND). OSU is dominant for a reason. I don't think Clemson has "staying power" because of these factors.
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OSU's leg up is being the only 'name' program in a populous state. I'll be radical and absurdist by suggesting they made sure that fact didn't change, over the years.
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2020 Census results: Georgia has packed on a million more people | Urbanize Atlanta (https://urbanize.city/atlanta/post/2020-census-georgia-results-atlanta-population-representatives)
estimates show a 25-percent surge in City of Atlanta residents since 2010
It's unusual for a major city to grow this fast, this isn't the metro area, just the city.
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2020 Census results: Georgia has packed on a million more people | Urbanize Atlanta (https://urbanize.city/atlanta/post/2020-census-georgia-results-atlanta-population-representatives)
estimates show a 25-percent surge in City of Atlanta residents since 2010
It's unusual for a major city to grow this fast, this isn't the metro area, just the city.
Did the physical size of the city change at all? In the south, I always wonder about annexing unincorporated territory
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I think they did annex a small portion around Emory U, but it wasn't significant, 6400 people apparently. There are cranes all around me now putting up apartments and condos. I keep thinking they are over building, but my realtor friends think not.
Atlanta City Council votes unanimously to annex Emory and CDC (ajc.com) (https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/atlanta-expands-eastward-completing-annexation-emory-and-cdc/nnLePc3xFxV989npP7MfNK/)
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In Atlanta's case, it may be that they've already grown out, now it's growing up.
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The growth in the city is a small fraction of the growth in the metro area outside the city. The city is a bit over half a million, the metro is 5.6 million in addition.
We drove to DC and I noticed new subdivisions going up 45 miles NE of where we live and work to widen the freeway.
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Right, but hasn't Atlanta grown out to it's loop and beyond it as well? At some point, the Atlanta area ends and people are going to start paying crazy prices of high-rises.
Maybe ATL is there.
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Right, but hasn't Atlanta grown out to it's loop and beyond it as well? At some point, the Atlanta area ends and people are going to start paying crazy prices of high-rises.
Maybe ATL is there.
The loop is about 12miles out, the metro area goes about 45 miles out. The metro area grew well outside the loop in 1970. We lived outside the loop in 1964, barely.
A two bedroom apartment near us goes for close to $3 K a month in the new buildings with the amenities. Condos are around half a million, the newest ones start at $800 K and up for a 2 BDR. Those are pretty upscale, but not near the park.
40 W 12th Street NW 901, Atlanta, GA, 30309 (40west12th.com) (https://40west12th.com/search/listing/fmls/6618387/Atlanta/40-W-12th-Street-NW-901)
40 West 12th Condos Selling from $800,000 | News & Blog
(https://40west12th.com/news-and-blog/page/3/)
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I think beyond population is:
1. Quality of HS programs in the state, and
2. Fervor for football in the state.
New York is not a hotbed for football recruits. Georgia is, not only because of population, but because of enthusiasm for the sport which means money going into HS coffers which means better programs and training.
I'd guess nearly every top Ohio HS player dreams of playing at OSU (some ND). OSU is dominant for a reason. I don't think Clemson has "staying power" because of these factors.
Living in a nearby state and knowing a few high school coaches, I find Georgia‘a investment in the sport to be ... a lot.
It’s not my money and I try not to get hot and bothered by anyone else’s choices, but it is pricey for some thing that is somewhat tangential to the educational mission.
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I think they did annex a small portion around Emory U, but it wasn't significant, 6400 people apparently. There are cranes all around me now putting up apartments and condos. I keep thinking they are over building, but my realtor friends think not.
Atlanta City Council votes unanimously to annex Emory and CDC (ajc.com) (https://www.ajc.com/news/local-govt--politics/atlanta-expands-eastward-completing-annexation-emory-and-cdc/nnLePc3xFxV989npP7MfNK/)
Overbuilding in the sense of demand or infrastructure?
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it's not about education
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But it's under the guise of it, no? Gotta keep that hyphenated term, 'student-athlete' in all official documents!
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it's not about education
How do you mean?
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the Football program has few ties with the academic program
the plus might be that some football players might attend class to be eligible for sports
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the Football program has few ties with the academic program
the plus might be that some football players might attend class to be eligible for sports
Tell that to the University of Chicago :96:
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ya think the Maroons are all outstanding students? Could be I suppose.
Phil the Phoenix??
perhaps Athletic director: Erin McDermott is inline for a move to Madison?
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ya think the Maroons are all outstanding students? Could be I suppose.
Indiana Jones taught there.
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Overbuilding in the sense of demand or infrastructure?
Infrastructure, new apartments, condos, office space, especially the latter. This city has a habit of over building before a collapse and then a long period of retrenchment.
The developers seem exuberant right now, and maybe for good reason for the next couple of years. We still have a fair number of prime locations that are surface parking lots and old apartment low rise buildings slated for construction over the next year or so. But, they will run out of available land in a few years I think at this rate. I think they will start building up across the freeway, which has lagged somewhat aside from Atlantic Center and Howell Mill Road, which is a hotbed also because the land is cheap.
High-rise roundup: Tower projects advance in Midtown, downtown | Urbanize Atlanta
The tidal wave of 20 and 30-something story towers that’s swept over Midtown the past decade shows few signs of abating, and similar construction appears to be accelerating on cheaper real estate downtown. (https://urbanize.city/atlanta/post/midtown-tower-construction-development-downtown)
This past week has seen activity on new tower development from the crane-studded heart of Midtown to blocks of parking lots near Centennial Olympic Park.
News that could make urbanists giddy includes an update from the Midtown Development Review Committee on a two-tower Toll Brothers at 1018 West Peachtree Street.
(https://urbanize.city/atlanta/post/midtown-tower-construction-development-downtown)
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B1G by % increase the past 10 years and (no. of programs);
The top growth B1G state was MN, 19th overall in growth.
7.6 - Minnesota (1)............5.3 mil per program to 5.7.
7.4 - Nebraska (1).............1.8 to 2.0 (rounding)
7.0 - Maryland (1)..............5.8 to 6.2
5.7 - New Jersey (1)..........8.8 to 9.3
4.7 - Indiana (3)...............2.1 to 2.3
4.7 - Iowa (2)...................1.5 to 1.6
3.6 - Wisconsin (1)...........5.7 to 5.9
2.4 - Pennsylvania (2).......6.4 to 6.5
2.3 - Ohio (1)...................11.5 to 11.8
2.0 - Michigan (2)............4.9 to 5.0
-0.1 - Illinois (2)..............6.4 to 6.4
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This plus tradition = OSU stranglehold.
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Actual increase in population over 10 years:
4 million - Texas
2.7 Million - FL
2.3 million - CA
1 million - GA
.98 million - WA
.90 million - NC
.82 million - NY
.76 million - AZ
.74 million - CO
.63 million - VA
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So in Texas, over an entire decade, around 1,100 people moved there PER DAY.
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or swam across the Rio Grande
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You only want them to count as 3/5 of a person, right?
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nope, they are all full peoples
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B1G by % increase the past 10 years and (no. of programs);
The top growth B1G state was MN, 19th overall in growth.
7.6 - Minnesota (1)............5.3 mil per program to 5.7.
7.4 - Nebraska (1).............1.8 to 2.0 (rounding)
7.0 - Maryland (1)..............5.8 to 6.2
5.7 - New Jersey (1)..........8.8 to 9.3
4.7 - Indiana (3)...............2.1 to 2.3
4.7 - Iowa (2)...................1.5 to 1.6
3.6 - Wisconsin (1)...........5.7 to 5.9
2.4 - Pennsylvania (2).......6.4 to 6.5
2.3 - Ohio (1)...................11.5 to 11.8
2.0 - Michigan (2)............4.9 to 5.0
-0.1 - Illinois (2)..............6.4 to 6.4
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This plus tradition = OSU stranglehold.
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I wonder if the growth in Texas means Houston might be a P5 team.
Georgia has a few programs moving up the ladder (slowly). Georgia State now plays in Turner Field where the Braves abandoned a perfectly nice modern stadium for one in the 'burbs with no mass transit.
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Texas is an odd dynamic, where people root for teams out in the boonies (Texas, aTm), even though they have teams in their own cities (Houston, SMU) who, for a long time, played in the exact same conference (SWC) as the BFE schools.
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keep Austin Weird!
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The states growing in population seem apt to generate more "Division 1" programs, some of which could be in line for a P5 slot in time.
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Another way that OSU has gotten to this point: have a high initial population, have a good football program, then simply lag behind the rest in growth. If Ohio's population doubled these past 25 years, Cincinnati would be in the ACC. But instead, it's doing the rust belt challenge of nominal growth.
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The U of Cincy has a few "issues", starting with a small stadium largely boxed in by other buildings. They can get some decent recruits that were not up to OSU standards and didn't like Akron or Miami or UK or Indiana. They have a fairly large commuter student issue as well. And, it's a "city" school with little fan support outside that metro area.
They seem to have found a fit at HC, so we'll see how it goes from here.
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Sounds like South Florida in Tampa. They don't even have their own stadium. Lot of potential, though.
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(https://i.imgur.com/5eVfZBv.png)
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just need an upper deck