CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: OrangeAfroMan on January 18, 2021, 01:16:50 PM
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Wow, Pruitt was cheating AND sucking at the same time?!?
Amazing.
Hey, when the AD writes down his list of HC candidates, is Fat Phil going to just skip down to the 20th guy this time? Save him some embarrassment?
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Fat Phil is "retiring" too! The Vols and Noles are having a contest to see who can hit rock bottom first!
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Tennessee football if it was a boat:
(https://media.istockphoto.com/photos/destroyed-boat-in-area-of-sea-tide-picture-id469993534)
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Tennessee football if it was a chick:
(https://img1.nickiswift.com/img/gallery/whats-come-out-about-michael-jackson-since-he-died/intro-1551899836.jpg)
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I bought an official Tennessee Vols lego set:
(https://c4.staticflickr.com/6/5478/31471639755_fa406ab53c_b.jpg)
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Phil Fulmer, to Santonio Beard, circa 1999/2000: "Alabama is going to be out of the football business"
Since then? ut has had 6 HCs. Bama has 6 NCs!
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In the last 14 seasons, Tennessee is 1-27 vs Florida & Alabama.
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Who has been their worst HC since Fulmer?
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I'd guess Dooley, though Jones is a competitor.
Pruitt MAY have tanked the program for a while, so he's in the running.
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I'd say Dooley, just because of his pre-Tennessee resume. It sucked. And at UT, he sucked. Duh.
But then you have Pruitt, who was their 23rd? choice. Literally. And the damage done is unknown, as Cincy had said.
Having a 1-year hire was pretty bad, too, regardless of the record (Kiffin). He dips out after a year by choice - it makes your program look "less than."
.
Anyway, plenty of canddiates, lol.
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(https://rolltidebama.com/forum/proxy.php?image=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2FyAXDs06NsEuRPOhOMA%2Fgiphy.gif&hash=f17ce561ee80074f970fa321fc8e40e7)
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So, anyone care to guess at their prognosis over the next few seasons beyond the obvious?
We don't yet know what the NCAA may do. Let's presume the new HC is a reasonably competent HC.
Can he turn it around fast enough not to get fired himself?
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I think Heupel is a decent coach, stipulate that, probably not a miracle worker.
I would skip 2021, too much unknown, and the Vols could have a disastrous season, or they could be 8-5ish I think.
Further out, I think they can post 10-3/9-4/8-5 seasons fairly routinely, probably mixed in with worse years where they lose to UK or Mizzou or USCe or they draw LSU from the West.
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From The Athletic on UT's hire:
"Instead, we’ve got UCF North. Or North UCF? How about UCF-Knoxville? A slight rearranging of the letters in UCFK creates the exact word a large percentage of the Tennessee fan base said when Heupel’s hire became public, and exactly what zero percent of fans of other SEC teams said."
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I do find it funny that UT fans (online) were quick to buy-in to their new AD from UCF, but not the HC from the same place. Weird.
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I think fans think an AD is much less likely to provide wins and losses than the HC, so an AD can be almost anyone, in effect, with a bit of experience.
They want an Urban Meyer type for HC (I hear there aren't many of that ilk). The AD? Meh.
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So, what does Heupel need to do to have longer term employment?
First thing is to keep players from bolting, good luck with that. He should get a pass on 2021, normally, so anything between 5-7 and 7-6 would be excused. Maybe the team will be exciting offensively. But by 2022, he will have to show some progress, right?
9-4 or something, a decent bowl game? Maybe 8-5 doesn't get him fired of course, even 7-6, but folks get antsy.
By 2025, I'd opine, the Vols need to beat the lesser teams and at least look competitive with the better teams.
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Or put another way, if the Vols don't win the East in X years, he gets fired.
What is the value of X?
I'd say about 7.
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Have you guys paid attention to UT fans? 7 years? They want it day 1. They're irrational and actually believe their program is still where it was when Peyton was there.
They don't understand that General Neyland himself isn't walking through that door. Half of them still expected John Gruden to take the job. It's madness.
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The fans don't control hiring and firing obviously, aside from a few with large checkbooks. I'm sure by Year 7, the fans will be clamoring, but I don't think before that he would get fired except for cause.
Dawg fans are clamoring for an NC but not many want Smart to be fired, yet.
Usually, a HC who shows improvement over 4 years is in OK shape and then he needs to win something.
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A couple things. Tennessee fans are obviously delusional as they think it's 1950 and that Tennessee rates a John Gruden or a Jeff Fisher as a head coach. I am not sure they are any less delusional than other fan bases. Auburn fired Gus Malzahn who won roughly two thirds of his games, was 39-27 in the SEC and beat Nick Saban three times. Mark Richt won roughly three quarters of his games and was 83-37 in the SEC. Were Auburn and Georgia any different than Tennessee?
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A couple things. Tennessee fans are obviously delusional as they think it's 1950 and that Tennessee rates a John Gruden or a Jeff Fisher as a head coach. I am not sure they are any less delusional than other fan bases. Auburn fired Gus Malzahn who won roughly two thirds of his games, was 39-27 in the SEC and beat Nick Saban three times. Mark Richt won roughly three quarters of his games and was 83-37 in the SEC. Were Auburn and Georgia any different than Tennessee?
Georgia was better because they didn't wait until they were a dumpster fire before getting someone new.
When you get rid of a guy on your time, you look at the landscape and hand-pick the replacement. That's what UGA did and (I guess) what Auburn is trying to do.
Tennessee waits until their team (still) stinks and they've had violations to change the HC. They scramble and pick whoever is out there on short-notice.
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Or maybe they got lucky. Maybe they didn't do either as Smart and Richt's records are statistically the same.
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Maybe. But they were proactive instead of reactive. And Smart has gotten them closer to a NC than Richt ever did. That matters.
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I think Dawg fans were tired of losing games they should win. I think Smart has lost one game where they were heavy favorites (South Carolina in a 4 INT debacle by Fromm). Smart's teams also beat Florida fairly often (and they lead Alabama at the half!).
You take a risk obviously firing a guy who averages nearly 10 wins a year.
I like the idea that you find the guy you want before you fire who you have.
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I like the idea that you find the guy you want before you fire who you have.
So few ADs do this, it hurts my brain.
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It is a puzzlement to me, but ADs face pressures I probably don't understand from people who write checks. And Presidents.
I know if you "fire for cause", you won't be prepared, but if you fire for nonperformance, there is time to scout. Perhaps in asking around it gets leaked and then you are in a bind. Maybe Michigan did this, quietly, they have someone in mind who isn't ready yet.
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So, the Vols ... and their future, predictions?
2021 - A lot going on, let's guess 8-5. They get Ole Miss and Pitt OOC. Win a minor bowl game? Optimistic, could be worse.
2022 - AT Pitt and AT LSU. 7-6 very possible, could be 9-3 with a break somewhere.
2023 - AT BYU and A&M in the West. 8-5 seems plausible to me.
2024 - Oklahoma and Miss State. I think 9-3 is possible here, JH might be feeling some warmth.
2025 - Auburn, no OOC game set yet.
I don't see a lot of shot at some breakthrough season, but 9-3 could be upper limit generally, and they could of course lose some they expect to win, that might be key for JH. Beat UK and Mizzou and USCe every year.
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I don't look two years in advance but I took a look at their 2021 schedule. The only sure wins I see are Bowling Green, South Alabama, Vanderbilt and Tennessee Tech. I see Pitt, Missouri, South Carolina, and Kentucky as toss ups. I see Alabama, Georgia, Florida and Ole Miss as losses. I think it will be very difficult for them attaining 8-5. I think 6-6 is more likely.
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Well, 6-6 can turn into 7-6 which is one win off 8-5 of course. It's very possible they lose to UK and Mizzou and Pitt obviously.
I'm trying to paint a more positive picture of what if.
South Carolina probably is as bad a dumpster fire now.
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But the Gamecocks don't have a large, irrational online presence, lol.
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They may somewhere, just not here.
My guess is the Clemson dominance of late has quieted them a good bit. Are FSU fans quieter now than a decade ago?
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I'm still curious how long JH can last with the Vols and what he needs to achieve by Date X to survive. He has to better Jones' record, one presumes.
Jones was 5-7 Year One, about what we're thinking here.
7-6
9-4
9-4
4-6
Had Jones managed say 8-5 in his last year he probably survives (?).
If they beat Vandy in that penultimate year he might have made it.