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The Power Five => SEC => Topic started by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 10:15:34 AM

Title: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 10:15:34 AM
I suppose we can expect Alabama and A&M and Florida and UGA to be "in the running", with LSU and Auburn as darker horses.

Anyone else with a decent shot at winning their division?  
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on January 18, 2021, 10:52:38 AM
I don't think Auburn, LSU or Florida have a snowball's chance at a divisional title next fall. Florida pretty much showed that it was a three man team against Oklahoma and those three super players are gone. Auburn looks like it's sinking with the rats abandoning ship. The transfer portal down there needs a traffic cop and recruiting really suffered after they fired Gus. LSU doesn't have a SEC level qb.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 18, 2021, 11:00:56 AM
LOL, well, I guess there's no reason to play the games then.  
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 18, 2021, 11:12:13 AM
Our forecasts obviously can be upset by unexpected developments, but it's fun to consider what appears to us to be likely.

It's not too hard to predict the East will be decided in Jacksonville and the West may be decided when Bama plays A&M, but the West is not as clear cut I think.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: jgvol on January 18, 2021, 12:48:56 PM
Bama till it's not.

Unfortunately.

I'd love to see A&M unseat them, but we know how that goes.....
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 18, 2021, 06:30:02 PM
For Florida:
QB - Emory Jones is perfect for Mullen's run/pass system.  He has a stronger arm than Trask and should have a great grasp of the offense after playing/backing up for 2 years.
RB - everyone comes back, plus a 5* Clemson transfer
WR - 2 straight years of this position being gutted is rough, but we get back Shorter and Copeland, plus FRs Henderson and Whittemore showed they'll contribute
TE - we go from All-American to merely "very good" here
OL - depends.....may lose 4 guys, but some may come back, thanks to the extra year Covid thing.  This group can't run-block worth a damn, tho.
DL - Good pass-rushers return, but lose two 300 lbers......yet we get two 300 lbers to replaced them from Penn St and Auburn.
LB - a shallow position this past year, but literally EVERYONE comes back
DB - Marco Wilson leaving early is a non-issue, he stunk.  Elam is good, but the top 3 safeties leave and the DB coach.  As the defensive backs couldn't have been worse as a group, only coaching will improve things.  The guys who have played, haven't played well.  
.
We'll be a whole different offense in 2021.  And while not as productive, it'll still be a plus-offense.  We'll run the ball a ton more and there's a chance that in itself will help the defense some.  The front 6 of the defense will be better, but the defensive backfield is a crapshoot.  If it can be merely average, that would be a big step up and allow for a good season.
.
Good punter returns and we got a transfer K from Miss State.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 19, 2021, 09:29:18 AM
I'm sure nearly everyone will pick Bama in the West, and toss a coin in the East.

Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on January 19, 2021, 09:44:44 AM
I don't see how you can look at what Georgia has coming back and their schedule and say the East is a coin toss. Tennessee, Vanderbilt and South Carolina are in rebuild as is Auburn whom you play. Florida lost their entire offense and had no defense to start with. I doubt Kentucky and Missouri can challenge. Georgia misses Alabama and A&M, I believe. Georgia should go undefeated at least through the regular season.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 20, 2021, 11:44:37 AM
I think Florida has a better coach than UGA, and I'd consider that game close to a coin toss, though I expect UGA will be favored.

Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 20, 2021, 07:31:56 PM
No, no, by all means, count us out.  It's not like Mullen is going to actually get to run his offense now, with an athletic QB.  We don't have to play Georgia, they have to play us!
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on January 20, 2021, 07:42:07 PM
I just looked at Florida's schedule. Florida should be favored in 9 games, a toss up at LSU, and underdogs against Georgia and Alabama. I think 10 wins are within reach
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 20, 2021, 10:38:27 PM
A toss up vs LSU?  Was that a shoe-throwing joke??!?  :57:
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on January 21, 2021, 08:48:53 AM
Please educate me as to why you think Florida should be a significant favorite over LSU next fall. The game is in Baton Rouge. LSU always out recruits Florida. LSU won the last game in Gainesville despite being a huge underdog. Florida lost its entire offense. This is not 2020. IMHO this is a very dangerous game for Florida.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 21, 2021, 10:33:51 AM
Where did I say Florida should be a significant favorite over LSU next year?  Who am I to educate you on shit you're just conjuring from thin air?
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on January 21, 2021, 10:52:05 AM
I am not conjuring up anything. You laughed at my assertion that the Florida-LSU game would be a toss up. Ergo, if it is not a toss up then one team has to be more than a slight favorite. More than a slight favorite is a significant favorite. So, I didn't make anything up. You seem to be confused.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 21, 2021, 10:54:46 AM
I made a shoe joke.  You must be reeeeally bored.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 12:28:12 PM
I made a shoe joke.  You must be reeeeally bored.
I missed it as well, and it's pretty funny.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 21, 2021, 12:30:32 PM
UGA plays Clemson (Charlotte), Florida (Jville), at Auburn, any other losses would be sizeable upsets.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on January 22, 2021, 10:39:52 AM
I wouldn't worry about Auburn.  I don't believe in Bo Nix, especially with new coaches.
I don't think he's good enough to carry the load for them.  I think he could do it in another conference, but not in the SEC.  He can't Johnny Manziel himself out of bad plays, despite that's what he's done since HS.  
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 22, 2021, 12:17:40 PM
If UGA is as good as forecast, it should be no problem.  If.  It looks to me like the next most likely loss.

Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on January 30, 2021, 11:45:14 AM
Full 2021 Georgia Football schedule...
September 4: Clemson (Charlotte, N.C.)
September 11: UAB (Athens, Ga.)
September 18: South Carolina (Athens, Ga.)
September 25: at Vanderbilt (Nashville, Tenn.)
October 2: Arkansas (Athens, Ga.)
October 9: at Auburn (Auburn, Ala.)
October 16: Kentucky (Athens, Ga.)
October 23: OPEN
October 30: Florida (Jacksonville, Fla.)
November 6: Missouri (Athens, Ga.)
November 13: at Tennessee (Knoxville, Tenn.)
November 20: Charleston Southern (Athens, Ga.)
November 27: at Georgia Tech (Atlanta, Ga.)
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: ALA2262 on February 04, 2021, 10:36:12 PM
Looking at that schedule is like looking at their 1980 schedule. Tough opener at ut. Win there and they are probably going undefeated. They did and they did.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 05, 2021, 09:29:41 AM
In 1980, the Dawgs had a number of close escapes, including South Carolina and of course Florida, aside from Tennessee.  They used all their luck up that year I think.

They can afford a close loss to Clemson if they go 12-1.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: ALA2262 on February 05, 2021, 09:51:51 AM
Lol at #12.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 05, 2021, 10:41:51 PM
UGA should play Clemson in Augusta.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: ALA2262 on February 06, 2021, 12:21:08 AM
UGA should play Clemson in Augusta.
Largest stadium in Augusta is ARC Stadium. Home field of Academy of Richmond County HS. Seats 1,600.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 07:56:07 AM
I lived in Augusta for 6 years when I was a lad.  Atlanta has much better weather.

We lived a few blocks from Augusta National.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on February 06, 2021, 10:13:00 AM
I think the SEC East is the worst that I've ever seen. South Carolina, Tennessee, and Vanderbilt lack a pulse as does Auburn of the West and Georgia Tech of the ACC whom Georgia plays. Missouri and Kentucky are mediocre with some upside mainly because they get to play in the SEC East. Florida has to replace its entire offense. Georgia has a toss up with Clemson and then clear sailing through its next 12 games.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 11:56:35 AM
I suspect Florida will have a pretty good offense.  The QB is more Mullen's type and he does well on offense usually.

I seriously doubt UGA blows them out, unless they have bad turnovers.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 06, 2021, 01:16:22 PM
Yes, the offense will have more balance.  It won't put up as many points per game, as 2020's offense was special, but it will be good.
And the good part about the defense is that for it to improve, all it has to do is NOT be the worse Florida defense ever.  Should be pretty easy.

It's funny that some would say UGA will just easily beat Florida, considering after the first play in 2020, the Gators went on a 41-14 run against the Dawgs.  Suddenly UGA is just magically much better?  Sure, why not?
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 06, 2021, 01:22:18 PM
It was was perhaps more of a 41-7 run if we count offensive points.

The UGA offense looked generally better after the QB replacement.  Obviously, I don't predict a blow out.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 08:55:53 AM
I wonder where A&M is with their renewal, vs Bama.  I think their game is at Bama in 21.  Bama "might" be as weak as they ever get these days.

It seems like a 4  team race to me in the overall conference and will ride on two games.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on February 22, 2021, 11:59:33 AM
Where do you think Alabama's weaknesses are and which two games do you think will determine the league status? Apparently, one is Bama-A&M and the other I think might be Georgia -Florida?
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 22, 2021, 01:36:30 PM
Their weakness is their usual weakness, losing a ton to the NFL.  So, the "might" be as weak as they ever are.

Which isn't very weak obviously.  The QB position comes to mind as a position soft spot.

AT least UGA has their starter returning, it helps.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on February 22, 2021, 04:47:08 PM
So having the number 1 qb prospect in the land according to the gurus and having played in nine games last year is a weakness? Typically a new qb is a cause for concern. However there are some who are ready when they arrive on campus. We'll see.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 22, 2021, 10:14:03 PM
Breaking in a new QB is MUCH less of an issue today than it was 20 years ago.  For a guy who's been on the field and a year of learning the offense, the kid is going to be who he's going to be.  
.
Florida's "new" QB has gotten lots of playing the time the past 2 years and hasn't really been able to show off his passing talents much.  Much stronger arm than Trask, but if he has the accuracy and quick knowledge of where to go with the ball is unknown.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 23, 2021, 08:12:48 AM
The only point is that Bama MAY be as vulnerable as they get this year, maybe.  When else might A&M have any shot?

Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 06:02:42 AM
Who else could plausibly sneak in to either race?

Missouri?  Meh.
LSU?  Eh.
Auburn?  (Seems unlikely)

Well, it's all unlikely, I can't point to another team that has a 5% chance.  Arky?  Meh.  Usually we seem to have a team or three with a distant shot.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on February 26, 2021, 09:08:37 AM
In the East imo the only team with any chance of challenging Georgia is Florida and I would put that chance at maybe 25%. In the West I think it could be interesting. Texas, LSU, Arkansas and both Mississippi schools seem to be on the upsurge although imo only the first two have legitimate chances to challenge Alabama. Texas is loaded and only needs to reload at qb. LSU is being overlooked because of how bad they were last year. LSU is actually loaded with talent and, like Texas, only needs a qb. I would say that each has maybe a 20% chance to win the division.



Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2021, 01:36:41 PM
Is the other 75% in your butt?  I love numbers pulled from there!  
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 26, 2021, 05:21:09 PM
When someone says "I would put that chance at 25%", it's obviously his opinion.  

I'd note that IF A&M and LSU have a 20% chance to win the West, it would mean Bama would have 79.9% or somesuch.  That might not be far off, I'd give A&M more of an edge, LSU less of one.  LSU might upset Bama but lose two more games.  Or more.

My GUESS is UGA will be a 3-4 point fav over Florida.  That usually means a 60% shot at winning.  But by then, one could look worse than we expected and vice versa.

What if both look worse than we expect?  Missouri???

Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 26, 2021, 10:12:53 PM
No one is going to be as bad as South Carolina in 2 years, that's all I know.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 27, 2021, 11:08:39 AM
That seems likely, I suppose they could somehow snare a top tier QB and give people trouble.

Probably not. I kinda hope UK continues to have a pulse, and would be OK is Mizzou was half decent.  That team just north of me, well, I'd be fine if they didn't make a bowl game for ten years straight.

I expect Florida to stay good to very good, maybe even excellent.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on February 28, 2021, 02:18:20 AM
Florida missed a great opportunity last year.  They screwed it up by having the worst defense in 100 years of Gators football.  If it had been merely adequate, we'd have met Bama undefeated.  
As it is, that side of the ball needs major shoring up and the offense is back to an unknown.  
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on February 28, 2021, 09:28:15 AM
The Dawgs seem to do that often as well, great D and mediocre O usually.  In the woulda shoulda column, starting Daniels earlier might have made a difference also.

The O looked more potent when he took over.  I think his predecessor was "OK" in being accurate and knowledgeable, but the defense knew he wouldn't throw the long ball well and press covered.  That stymied the offense of course.  I was surprised how often the Dawg running attack faltered as well, even in the bowl game, especially in the bowl game.

I mainly hope we all can enjoy a "regular season" in 2021 with a full house.  Anything else would be gravy.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 02, 2021, 10:39:19 AM
With the attendance thing, I think all of the big-boy programs got a glimpse into what it's like to be an also-ran or a PAC-12 team.....
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: Cincydawg on March 25, 2021, 05:19:12 PM
UGA star receiver with an ACL, out for a year, probably NFL bound.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: bamajoe on March 26, 2021, 09:31:47 AM
I guess this makes the Clemson game more challenging. Maybe, Georgia can do what Alabama did when Waddle went down. Waddle was and is every bit as good as Smith. Alabama somehow managed to overcome his loss. Maybe Georgia can do the same.
Title: Re: 2021 Assessment
Post by: OrangeAfroMan on March 26, 2021, 02:36:44 PM
They don't have another Pickens, nor a Sarkisian.