CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on December 02, 2020, 01:39:04 PM
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Rankings, records, teams, and games remaining:
- 8-0 Bama, @LSU, Ark?
- 9-0 Notre Dame, vs Cuse
- 8-1 Clemson, @VaTech
- 4-0 Ohio State, @MSU, vM
- 6-1 aTm, @Aub, @TN
- 7-1 Florida, @TN, vLSU
- 8-0 Cincy, @ #24 Tulsa
- 6-2 Georgia, vs Vandy
- 7-2 Iowa State, vs WVU
- 7-1 Miami, @Dook, vs #17 UNC, vs GaTech
- 6-2 Oklahoma, vs Baylor, @ WVU
- 5-1 Indiana, @ #16 UW, vs PU
- 9-0 BYU, vs SDSU
- 5-1 Northwestern, vs IL
- 6-2 Oklahoma State, @TCU, @ Baylor
- 2-1 Wisconsin, vs #12 IU, @ #19 IA
- 6-3 North Carolina, vs WCU, @ #10 Miami
- 9-0 Coastal Carolina, vs Lib, @ Troy
- 4-2 Iowa, @IL, vs #16 UW
- 3-0 USC, vs WSU, @ UCLA
- 7-0 Marshall, vs Rice, @ FIU
- 3-0 Washington, vs Stan, @ #23 Ore
- 3-1 Oregon, @ Cal, vs #22 UW
- 5-1 Tulsa, @ Navy, vs #7 Cincy
- 8-1 Louisiana, @ApSt
The teams in bold are teams that I believe control their own destiny to the CFP:
- 8-0 #1 Bama: If they win out (@LSU, ARK?, SECCG probably vs #6 UF), they are obviously in.
- 9-0 #2 ND: If they win out (vs Cuse, ACCCG probably vs #3 Clemson), they are obviously in.
- 8-1 #3 Clemson: If they win out (@VaTech, ACCCG vs #2 ND), they are obviously in.
- 4-0 #4 tOSU: If they win out (@MSU, vM, B1GCG probably vs #14 NU), they are obviously in.
- 7-1 #6 UF: If they win out (@TN, vLSU, SECCG probably vs #1 Bama), they are obviously in.
- 3-0 #20 USC: If they win out (vWSU, @UCLA, P12CG probably vs #22 UW) they would probably jump enough teams to get in.
- 3-0 #22 Washington: If they win out (vsStan, @#23 Ore, P12CG probably vs #20 USC) they would probably jump enough teams to get in.
Everybody else needs help and probably lots of it.
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Something I am noticing over the years now is that Georgia is often, very often, the highest ranked 1 loss team, or 2 loss team, or heaven forbid 3 loss team. I know they are in the SEC, and that just means more, but whazzup wid dat?
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if it's not Georgia, it's Florida, or A&M
it's ALWAYS an SEC team, regardless
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Something I am noticing over the years now is that Georgia is often, very often, the highest ranked 1 loss team, or 2 loss team, or heaven forbid 3 loss team. I know they are in the SEC, and that just means more, but whazzup wid dat?
As you well know the losses weren't particularly close but they were on the road to #1 Bama and neutral site to #6 UF. Looking at the other ranked 2-loss teams:
- #9 ISU lost badly to #25 UL at home and close on the road to #15 OkSU
- #11 OU lost closely on the road to #9 ISU but they also lost to an unranked team that is below .500.
- #15 OkSU lost closely to unranked Texas and badly to #11 OU.
- #19 Iowa lost closely to #14 NU and to an unranked team that is below .500.
If you are going to have two losses, it helps if they are both to top-6 teams!
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Yeah, I'm not quite criticizing that trend as much as noting it, I have noted it the past few years since UGA got to be, um, highly ranked.
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I would argue that USC and Washington do not yet control their own destiny. Teams in front of them need to lose for them to jump into the top 4.
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I would argue that USC and Washington do not yet control their own destiny. Teams in front of them need to lose for them to jump into the top 4.
You could be right and I did say "probably" for them because winning out *MIGHT* not be enough, but bottom line, I don't think they need any help.
They are way down at #20 and #22 right now so that looks problematic but if either of them were to win out they would be an undefeated P5 Champion.
To your point, I do think that some of it has to do with how well the other one does. Ie, if they both win out to the P12CG, then I think the winner is almost certainly guaranteed of a spot because they'd both be something like top-10 by then so that would give the winner a signature victory.
Who are you thinking would stay ahead of them?
I'm thinking ONLY the following:
- The SEC Champion (almost certainly either Bama or Florida).
- The ACC Champion (almost certainly either Clemson or ND).
- The B1G Champion if they are undefeated (could only be tOSU).
That is it. What other team or teams do you think would be ahead of an undefeated P12 Champion USC or Washington?
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Something I am noticing over the years now is that Georgia is often, very often, the highest ranked 1 loss team, or 2 loss team, or heaven forbid 3 loss team. I know they are in the SEC, and that just means more, but whazzup wid dat?
Preseason rankings. And yes, the polls in the leadup to the initial playoff rankings have an influence.
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I would argue that USC and Washington do not yet control their own destiny. Teams in front of them need to lose for them to jump into the top 4.
This.
The PAC is not making the playoff. The argument will be sample size. 6-0 isn't gonna cut it, sorry. They're behind Cincinnati, at least 1 SEC team, 1 ACC team, possibly OSU, probably BYU, and a 2-loss preseason top 10 team (or 2).
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Damn right, um hum.
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You're entertaining only yourself.
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You're entertaining only yourself.
And why should I be concerned for anyone else?
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Often my jokes have an audience of 1.
They still make me smile.
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You could be right and I did say "probably" for them because winning out *MIGHT* not be enough, but bottom line, I don't think they need any help.
They are way down at #20 and #22 right now so that looks problematic but if either of them were to win out they would be an undefeated P5 Champion.
To your point, I do think that some of it has to do with how well the other one does. Ie, if they both win out to the P12CG, then I think the winner is almost certainly guaranteed of a spot because they'd both be something like top-10 by then so that would give the winner a signature victory.
Who are you thinking would stay ahead of them?
I'm thinking ONLY the following:
- The SEC Champion (almost certainly either Bama or Florida).
- The ACC Champion (almost certainly either Clemson or ND).
- The B1G Champion if they are undefeated (could only be tOSU).
That is it. What other team or teams do you think would be ahead of an undefeated P12 Champion USC or Washington?
Possibly a 1-loss Alabama if its a close loss in the SEC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion.
Possibly a 1-loss ND if its a close loss in the ACC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion.
An undefeated Ohio St that beats either NW, Wiscy, or Iowa during champions week will stay ahead of the PAC champ.
But I will concede that an undefeated PAC champ would probably jump over Cincy and BYU in the rankings, and jump over pretty much everybody else except Bama, FL, Clem, ND and Ohio St.
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Often my jokes have an audience of 1.
They still make me smile.
I think that's called 'mental masturbation.'
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Possibly a 1-loss Alabama if its a close loss in the SEC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion. This is a certainty.
Possibly a 1-loss ND if its a close loss in the ACC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion. Another certainty.
An undefeated Ohio St that beats either NW, Wiscy, or Iowa during champions week will stay ahead of the PAC champ. Of course.
But I will concede that an undefeated PAC champ would probably jump over Cincy and BYU in the rankings, and jump over pretty much everybody else except Bama, FL, Clem, ND and Ohio St.
Cincinnati is light years ahead of a 6-0 USC or UW.
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You could be right and I did say "probably" for them because winning out *MIGHT* not be enough, but bottom line, I don't think they need any help.
They are way down at #20 and #22 right now so that looks problematic but if either of them were to win out they would be an undefeated P5 Champion.
To your point, I do think that some of it has to do with how well the other one does. Ie, if they both win out to the P12CG, then I think the winner is almost certainly guaranteed of a spot because they'd both be something like top-10 by then so that would give the winner a signature victory.
Who are you thinking would stay ahead of them?
I'm thinking ONLY the following:
- The SEC Champion (almost certainly either Bama or Florida).
- The ACC Champion (almost certainly either Clemson or ND).
- The B1G Champion if they are undefeated (could only be tOSU).
That is it. What other team or teams do you think would be ahead of an undefeated P12 Champion USC or Washington?
If Florida beats Bama (lol) then Florida would get in, and Bama could still get in as a 1-loss team.
If Clemson wins the rematch with the Domers in the CCG and both have only one loss that was against each other....
An undefeated OSU might be on the outside looking in, and an undefeated USC/UDub would be ranked #6.
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I think that's called 'mental masturbation.'
Well it does often involve the internet.
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Possibly a 1-loss Alabama if its a close loss in the SEC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion.
Possibly a 1-loss ND if its a close loss in the ACC CCG, would stay ahead of an undefeated PAC champion.
An undefeated Ohio St that beats either NW, Wiscy, or Iowa during champions week will stay ahead of the PAC champ.
But I will concede that an undefeated PAC champ would probably jump over Cincy and BYU in the rankings, and jump over pretty much everybody else except Bama, FL, Clem, ND and Ohio St.
I listed three which included an undefeated tOSU.
You listed two more possibilities:
- A 1-loss Bama whose loss was close in the SECCG.
- A 1-loss ND whose loss was close to Clemson in the ACCCG.
You might be right on #1 which is why I said "probably" in the original post on the matter. The PAC's worst-case-scenario for that would be:
- Bama and UF both win out to the SECCG.
- UF beats Bama in a close and possibly controversial game.
If it ended up between 1-loss non-Champion Bama and undefeated PAC Champion USC or Washington, I could see the Trojans or Huskies losing out. I don't think it matters because I think the chances of that and everything else necessary to keep an undefeated PAC Champion out happening are remote.
I think that a one-loss Notre Dame would be seen for what they are: A team that got lucky to get a non-full-strength Clemson at home and took advantage with an OT win over them then lost to Clemson when the Tigers were at full strength. The committee would see that and ND would be out, IMHO.
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Cincinnati is light years ahead of a 6-0 USC or UW.
I don't even think that a 1-loss non-Champion Bama beating out an undefeated PAC Champion USC or Washington is a certainty, see above.
I strongly disagree with your assertion that a 1-loss non-champion ND beating out an undefeated USC or UW is a certainty. I see that as uncertain but a LOT closer to certainly not, than certainly so.
I agree that an undefeated tOSU would beat out an undefeated USC or Washington and said so in my initial post on the matter.
I am shocked to see this comment about Cincinnati from you of all people. You have always been on my side in the discussions of the relative merits of G5 teams. Cincinnati is nowhere near the level of the top contenders in the P5 leagues.
If Florida beats Bama (lol) then Florida would get in, and Bama could still get in as a 1-loss team.
If Clemson wins the rematch with the Domers in the CCG and both have only one loss that was against each other....
An undefeated OSU might be on the outside looking in, and an undefeated USC/UDub would be ranked #6.
Assuming that all of this happened you are arguing that the final CFP rankings would be:
- 1-loss SEC Champion Florida (lost to aTm)
- 1-loss ACC Champion Clemson (lost to ND on the road while short-handed then avenged that loss in the ACCCG)
- 1-loss non-Champion Bama (lost to Florida in the SECCG)
- 1-loss Notre Dame (lost to Clemson in the ACCCG)
- UNDEFEATED B1G Champion tOSU
- UNDEFEATED PAC Champion USC/UW
Frankly, I think this is ludicrous. First, vis-a-vis Ohio State:
The Buckeyes are only two spots behind the Irish now (#2 vs #4). You are suggesting that Ohio State winning out and winning the B1G while ND loses a game and doesn't win their conference wouldn't be enough for tOSU to jump them? Seriously?
In that scenario Ohio State would be guaranteed of a CFP berth and probably #1. They would be no worse than #3 behind the SEC and ACC Champions. The debate would be at #4 between ND and the PAC Champion:
Second vis-a-vis USC/UW:
I highly doubt it, but you *could* be right here. USC and UW are 18 and 20 spots down on the Irish right now. I think going undefeated and winning their conference while ND does neither of those things is enough to make that up but I could be wrong.
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We've seen the CFP committees "logic" vary wildly from week to week in the past.
No way they keep a one loss ND out of the playoffs. Nor a one loss Clemson, Florida or Alabama.
Nor is OSU guaranteed a Big Ten Title if they go undefeated.
They will use that as well as the number of games in order to justify keeping OSU out if all four of those teams only have one loss.
JMHO, obviously.
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It's fine. Ohio State can play Washington or USC in the Covid bowl to decide who is the non-SEC/ACC champion.
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Been there done that, and then did it again.
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I am shocked to see this comment about Cincinnati from you of all people. You have always been on my side in the discussions of the relative merits of G5 teams. Cincinnati is nowhere near the level of the top contenders in the P5 leagues.
I'm not predicting what SHOULD happen, but what WOULD happen.
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I'm not predicting what SHOULD happen, but what WOULD happen.
Ah ok. I get it now. I still disagree but I see where you are coming from. We may get a chance to find out, we'll see.
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The PAC teams are screwed because this isn't late September. They're 3-0 and have no time to move up. There aren't enough games left to crack the top of the rankings. USC can curb-stomp the rest of their schedule and they'd peak at around 10th.
Alabama can lose to whoever and still get in. If Clemson dominates ND, ND could be out. Cicinnati is right there already. That's why they're light-years ahead of the PAC champion.
Part of the small sample size is a lack of elite opponents. Even if ND loses big to Clemson, it's still a loss to an elite team. No one can say, with any certainty, that a 6-0 team is elite, whether they happen to be 6-0 midseason (normally) or 6-0 at the end of the season.
OSU is in. They are a blueblood.
But guys, if Cincinnati gets in and plays an undefeated Bama, we're all going to bed at halftime.
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You're entertaining only yourself.
It appears as though you are the only one that didn't find it funny.
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If Florida beats Bama (lol) then Florida would get in, and Bama could still get in as a 1-loss team.
If Clemson wins the rematch with the Domers in the CCG and both have only one loss that was against each other....
An undefeated OSU might be on the outside looking in, and an undefeated USC/UDub would be ranked #6.
If this were to happen 2 SEC, and 2 ACC teams over undefeated B1G and P12. Boy would I be pissed.
But I hope the committee would come forward and say what we all are thinking that those 2 conferences had small minded and weak leadership, causing their champions to not have a large enough body of work to allow them inclusion to this years tournament.
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I can't fathom OSU being left out. They're a name brand and have been dominant lately. In fact, if the above happened, the seeds would be:
1 - Clemson
2 - Ohio St (if only to avoid an immediate FloraBama rematch)
3 - Florida
4 - Alabama
5 - Notre Dame
6 - Texas A&M/Cincinnati
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The PAC's only chance was Oregon, who was ranked highly enough initially.
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Was Fro ever this high on aTm when they were in the Big 12? ;D
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If Florida beats Bama (lol) then Florida would get in, and Bama could still get in as a 1-loss team.
If Clemson wins the rematch with the Domers in the CCG and both have only one loss that was against each other....
An undefeated OSU might be on the outside looking in, and an undefeated USC/UDub would be ranked #6.
I could happen and because of the circumstances just might come to be
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I see that BYU just scheduled undefeatrd Coastal Carolina for this Saturday. BYU will be a last minute replacement after Liberty had to back out of its game with Coastal Carolina due to COVID-19.
I see this changing nothing as far as the 4 playoff teams go. But I guess it could help BYU's chances to get into 1 of the commitee Access bowls. If BYU ends up in the top 8, they almost have to give them a spot in a major bowl.
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I see that BYU just scheduled undefeatrd Coastal Carolina for this Saturday. BYU will be a last minute replacement after Liberty had to back out of its game with Coastal Carolina due to COVID-19.
I see this changing nothing as far as the 4 playoff teams go. But I guess it could help BYU's chances to get into 1 of the commitee Access bowls. If BYU ends up in the top 8, they almost have to give them a spot in a major bowl.
I think this is more of an attempt to catch Tulsa if the Golden Hurricane upsets Cincy for the NY6 Bowl than an attempt to catch Bama/ND/Clem/tOSU for the CFP. Non-P5 in the latest CFP rankings:
Rank, Record, Team, Conference, remaining games:
- #6, 8-0 Cincy, AAC, Tulsa twice (I think)
- #13, 9-0 BYU, Indep, CCU, SDSU
- #18, 9-0 CCU, Sun Belt, BYU, Troy, Louisiana
- #21, 7-0 Marshall, C-USA, Rice, FIU, C-USACG probably against UTSA, LaTech, or UAB
- #24, 5-1 Tulsa, AAC, Navy then Cincy twice
- #25, 8-1 Louisiana, Sun Belt, ApSt, CCU
The BYU/CCU winner probably still needs help to catch Cincy but if Cincy falters they should easily be the highest ranked non P5 so long as they win out. So at this point here is what each probably needs:
- #6 Cincy: Win out.
- #13 BYU: Win out and root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa.
- #18 CCU: Win out and root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa.
- #21 Marshall: Win out, root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa and for Tulsa to lose to Navy and for the BYU/CCU winner to lose to somebody.
- #24 Tulsa: Win out, root for the BYU/CCU winner to lose, and it would help if Marshall lost as well.
- #25 Louisiana: Win out, root for CCU over BYU, Navy over Tulsa, and Tulsa over Cincy.
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,,,
C incinnati is the only one with a punchers chance in Hell, imo, and even that is of course highly improbable.
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I think this is more of an attempt to catch Tulsa if the Golden Hurricane upsets Cincy for the NY6 Bowl than an attempt to catch Bama/ND/Clem/tOSU for the CFP. Non-P5 in the latest CFP rankings:
Rank, Record, Team, Conference, remaining games:
- #6, 8-0 Cincy, AAC, Tulsa twice (I think)
- #13, 9-0 BYU, Indep, CCU, SDSU
- #18, 9-0 CCU, Sun Belt, BYU, Troy, Louisiana
- #21, 7-0 Marshall, C-USA, Rice, FIU, C-USACG probably against UTSA, LaTech, or UAB
- #24, 5-1 Tulsa, AAC, Navy then Cincy twice
- #25, 8-1 Louisiana, Sun Belt, ApSt, CCU
The BYU/CCU winner probably still needs help to catch Cincy but if Cincy falters they should easily be the highest ranked non P5 so long as they win out. So at this point here is what each probably needs:
- #6 Cincy: Win out.
- #13 BYU: Win out and root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa.
- #18 CCU: Win out and root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa.
- #21 Marshall: Win out, root for Cincy to lose one of their games with Tulsa and for Tulsa to lose to Navy and for the BYU/CCU winner to lose to somebody.
- #24 Tulsa: Win out, root for the BYU/CCU winner to lose, and it would help if Marshall lost as well.
- #25 Louisiana: Win out, root for CCU over BYU, Navy over Tulsa, and Tulsa over Cincy.
BYU's issue is that it is not eligible for the G5 spot in the access bowls because that spot can only go to a G5 conference champion and BYU is not in a conference.
So the only way for BYU to go to an access bowl is with an at-large bid, which probably means BYU will have to finish at least #12, but may need to be as high as #8 in the CFP rankings.
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You know it's the end times when a team schedules Coastal Carolina as a last-ditch effort to STRENGTHEN their schedule. W.....in T actual.....F
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that's #18 Coastal Carolina to you, Buddy
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And a trip to Myrtle Beach.
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pack the golf clubs
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Hey, they beat Kansas!
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Was Fro ever this high on aTm when they were in the Big 12? ;D
No, because they twelved in the Twelve.
Add $EC to any program and they are instantly ranked 3 spots higher than before.
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So by ranking them lower than they are now, I'm high on A&M? Mkay.
A&M is 1-1 vs teams with a pulse (Alabama and Florida).
Cincinnati is 0-0, BYU is 0-0 and therein lies the rub.
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I know ELA is running his pac-man video game season, but isn't 2020 a simulation in reality? For those of you unfamiliar with the NCAA football video game, you can basically play god when it comes to realignment. And what do we have this year?
The American, ACC, and MWC dropped divisions.
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You can simulate up to 30 seasons into the future (I believe) in the video game, and players know that some programs tend to consistently rise and others tend to fall, upon many simulations. We have plenty of oddities in 2020, such as:
Florida State is 1-6 in the ACC
Cincinnati, Indiana, Marshall, Liberty, Buffalo, San Jose State, Coastal Carolina, and Louisiana are a combined 55-3
Penn State is 1-5
Defending NC LSU is 3-4 and has allowed as many points as it's scored
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And then, the scheduling! You can change your OOC schedule in the video game, or play whoever you want as an independent, but oh, the inequities this year!
Teams like NC State and UT-San Antonio have played 10 games.
Arizona State has played 1 game. It's December 5th.
Division mates N'Western and Wisconsin have played 6 and 3 games, respectively.
Notre Dame sits atop the ACC standings.
While no (or few) OOC games have meant no layups for P5 programs, it's also led to fewer losses from G5 teams - hence the 55-3 combined record of the teams listed above.
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Idk, it's just as if we're in year 12 of a simulation and down is up and up is down. But hey, Alabama is #1, so that can act as our inception totem to know we're in the real world.
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Coastal Carolina??
0-0