CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 30, 2020, 02:29:21 PM
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Here is a link to the B1G tiebreakers (https://s3.amazonaws.com/bigten.org/documents/2020/10/22/2020_Big_Ten_Football_Tiebreakers.pdf).
Here is the language in that link concerning number of games played:
A team must play at least six games to be considered for participation in the championship game. However, if the average number of conference games played by all teams falls below six, with the average rounded up/down at .50 (i.e. 6.50 or greater would round up to 7, 6.49 or less would round down to 6), then teams must play no less than two fewer conference games than the average number of conference games played by all teams (i.e. four games played if the conference average is six) to be considered.
Referring to the language above, I think it means that if the actual (not rounded) average drops below 6.00, THEN the "no less than two fewer" language is invoked, but I could be wrong. Question for the lawyers on here ( @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , @MaximumSam , @MarqHusker , others)?
How do you read that?
As I see it, there are three plausible interpretations (decreasing order of what I think is correct):
- The "no less than two fewer" language is invoked once the average number of games played by B1G teams is <6.00.
- The "no less than two fewer" language is invoked once the rounded average number of games played by B1G teams falls below six (ie, the actual average has to fall below 6.50).
- The "no less than two fewer" language is invoked once the rounded average number of games played by B1G teams falls to six (ie, the actual average has to fall below 5.50).
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Here is where we are:
(https://i.imgur.com/ynqY7Ca.png)
This assumes that the NU/MN game will remain cancelled and not be replaced (replacement wouldn't really matter anyway because it would mean that another game got cancelled.
Possible triggers are at:
- <6.50 = <91 games.
- <6 = <84 games
- <5.5 = <77 games
The number of games has to be an even number (because each game is played by two teams) and we are already at 72.
- Three more games played would get us to 78 (because each counts for each team) and over the 5.5 game threshold.
- Six more games played would get us to 84 (again, each counts double) and equal to an average of exactly 6.
- Ten more games played would get us to 92 (again, each counts double) and over the 6.5 threshold.
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You are probably right, but I think the language should be changed so that all you need is to be within 2 games of the average.
So for example, if the average drops to 7.0 games, then all you need is 5 games total. This seems more fair than needing the average to drop to 6 before you can qualify with 5 total games.
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The wording here seems really strange to me. If you take my #1 interpretation above, what it means is:
- Average of 6.00 games played per team, minimum is six.
- Average of 5.86 games played per team, minimum is four.
There isn't anything between there. If our 14 teams play a total of 42 games that would count as 84 games played and 84/14=6.00. If they play 41 games that would count as 82 games played and 82/14=5.86.
So the way I am reading that, the minimum required will either be:
- 6 - if at least six more games are played bringing the total to 42 games, 84 "games played". Because the average would be >5.5 which rounds up to six.
- 4 - if at least three three more games are played bringing the total to 39 games, 78 "games played" but not more than five more. Because the average would be between 5.5 and 6.0 which rounds up to 6 and two fewer is 4.
- 3 - if two or fewer more games are played leaving the total below 38 games, 76 "games played". Because the average would be between 5.14 and 5.43 which rounds down to five and two fewer is 3.
The way I read that, there is no situation in which the minimum number for eligibility would be five. It is either six, four, or three. That doesn't seem right.
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You are probably right, but I think the language should be changed so that all you need is to be within 2 games of the average.
So for example, if the average drops to 7.0 games, then all you need is 5 games total. This seems more fair than needing the average to drop to 6 before you can qualify with 5 total games.
The average already can't be more than seven, see above. If no more games are cancelled then it will be:
- 8 games: IU, M, RU, PSU, IA
- 7 games: MSU, NU, PU, IL, UNL
- 6 games: tOSU, UMD, MN
- 5 games: UW
(8*5+7*5+6*6+5)/14 = 7.00
So if we read it that way, five games would already be enough to qualify.
I agree with you.
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"Rules were made to be broken."
-Urban Meyer, probably
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@MarqHusker (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=41)
@MaximumSam (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=1572)
What say you?
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That is very confusing and I'm not sure
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During Tuesday night’s reveal of the College Football Playoff Top 25 on ESPN, analyst Kirk Herbstreit stirred up some controversy as it pertains to next week’s matchup between Michigan and Ohio State. He suggested the Wolverines may use COVID-19 as an excuse to cancel the game and keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten title game.
When discussing potential playoff scenarios for the No. 4 Buckeyes, Herbstreit noted that Michigan could “wave the white flag” and decide not to play Ohio State. Under current Big Ten policy, that would mean the Buckeyes would play five games at most and eliminate them from conference title game contention.
Shortly after the show, Herbstreit posted a video to Twitter in which he immediately apologized to Michigan, head coach Jim Harbaugh, and the players.
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I doubt Michigan would cancel the Ohio State game due to COVID unless they have an outbreak. Reportedly they do have an outbreak, and canceled practice on Monday and Tuesday. Sounds to me like they are attempting to control it and play this Saturday, if possible. Once it gets started it is very difficult to stop when there are groups of people around someone who is positive.
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I doubt Michigan would cancel the Ohio State game due to COVID unless they have an outbreak. Reportedly they do have an outbreak, and canceled practice on Monday and Tuesday. Sounds to me like they are attempting to control it and play this Saturday, if possible. Once it gets started it is very difficult to stop when there are groups of people around someone who is positive.
I have a hard time believing any team could fake a COVID outbreak. You have 100+ players, plus coaches, medical staff, student assistants. You are saying that many people, the majority of which are college students, can keep that quiet? No way
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I have a hard time believing any team could fake a COVID outbreak. You have 100+ players, plus coaches, medical staff, student assistants. You are saying that many people, the majority of which are college students, can keep that quiet? No way
Agreed.
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During Tuesday night’s reveal of the College Football Playoff Top 25 on ESPN, analyst Kirk Herbstreit stirred up some controversy as it pertains to next week’s matchup between Michigan and Ohio State. He suggested the Wolverines may use COVID-19 as an excuse to cancel the game and keep the Buckeyes out of the Big Ten title game.
When discussing potential playoff scenarios for the No. 4 Buckeyes, Herbstreit noted that Michigan could “wave the white flag” and decide not to play Ohio State. Under current Big Ten policy, that would mean the Buckeyes would play five games at most and eliminate them from conference title game contention.
Shortly after the show, Herbstreit posted a video to Twitter in which he immediately apologized to Michigan, head coach Jim Harbaugh, and the players.
I am glad that he apologized. He should never have said such a classless thing. You can’t question a football teams level of competitiveness or that of a football coach and it was inappropriate for him to say something so stupid
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I am glad that he apologized. He should never have said such a classless thing. You can’t question a football teams level of competitiveness or that of a football coach and it was inappropriate for him to say something so stupid
Kirk gets a little full of himself and he's better than marginal, but hardly Gowdy,Schenkel,Jackson,Fleming,Enberg much better than Gary Danielson or a Jesse Palmer though
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I am glad that he apologized. He should never have said such a classless thing. You can’t question a football teams level of competitiveness or that of a football coach and it was inappropriate for him to say something so stupid
hey, he's a Buckeye
it's allowed since he's poking fun at his rival
IMO
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"Rules were made to be broken."
-Urban Meyer, probably
"Rules can be changed when appropriate."
-King Barry
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2020/12/118757/barry-alvarez-on-ohio-state-our-league-cant-keep-them-from-having-the-opportunity?amp
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I am glad that he apologized. He should never have said such a classless thing. You can’t question a football teams level of competitiveness or that of a football coach and it was inappropriate for him to say something so stupid
Desmon Howard turned around and basically levied the same baseless accusation at MSU, for which he didn't apologize. Granted, nobody really cares what the small guys at the childrens table yell.
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Michigan's AD and a trainer delivered a scathing rebuke of Herbstreit's comments. Michigan AD blasts Herbstreit (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/michigan-ad-blasts-espn-s-kirk-herbstreit-for-suggesting-wolverines-might-try-and-avoid-ohio-state/ar-BB1bzWay?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds)
Did Ohio State duck Illinois because they were fearful of losing? And didn't Ohio State duck Maryland, as well for fear they would lose to the Turtles?
People, just stop making stuff up. Herbstreit surprised me because he is usually the bigger man. We each have our failures of the moment. I am willing to give him another chance, but this kind of stuff cannot continue.
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Michigan's AD and a trainer delivered a scathing rebuke of Herbstreit's comments. Michigan AD blasts Herbstreit (https://www.msn.com/en-us/sports/ncaafb/michigan-ad-blasts-espn-s-kirk-herbstreit-for-suggesting-wolverines-might-try-and-avoid-ohio-state/ar-BB1bzWay?ocid=spartan-dhp-feeds)
Did Ohio State duck Illinois because they were fearful of losing? And didn't Ohio State duck Maryland, as well for fear they would lose to the Turtles?
People, just stop making stuff up. Herbstreit surprised me because he is usually the bigger man. We each have our failures of the moment. I am willing to give him another chance, but this kind of stuff cannot continue.
Maryland actually cancelled on OSU. But your right.
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Maryland actually cancelled on OSU.
Thank you for informing those who didn't know, as that was my point: Stop making up stuff.
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"Rules can be changed when appropriate."
-King Barry
https://www.elevenwarriors.com/ohio-state-football/2020/12/118757/barry-alvarez-on-ohio-state-our-league-cant-keep-them-from-having-the-opportunity?amp
(https://i.imgur.com/QTHLHXd.jpg)
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(https://i.imgur.com/QTHLHXd.jpg)
I always liked that dude.
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Me too.
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I think we should revisit the start of the season and the season including non-con games and if a game is cancelled it goes as a forfeit and a few other decisions that were made
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Well, that would be one way for UNL to get a W against Wisconsin. :96:
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I say, if things fall apart and the Badgers and Huskers are COVID free, we could still play that game
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Me too.
Me three.
Assuming that they need to and do make a change as Alvarez is already advocating, it isn't a matter of the B1G catering to tOSU. It is a matter of the B1G not screwing over their only realistic CFP contender. Here are the B1G teams currently in the CFP rankings:
- #4 tOSU, 4-0
- #12 IU, 5-1 lost to tOSU
- #14 NU, 5-1 lost to MSU
- #16 UW, 2-1 lost to NU
- #19 IA, 4-2 lost to NU and PU
With two losses, Iowa is out.
I believe that NU is also out because their loss is BAD. They lost by two scores to a sub .500 team. Teams have gotten in in the past with bad losses similar to that but those teams generally had a lot of dominating wins whereas Northwestern's only blowout win was over Maryland. The rest were by 1, 7, 8, and 10 points. Those teams also had longer seasons and thus more wins to offset the loss.
Wisconsin's problem, IMHO, is lack of games. There isn't a set minimum and if they were undefeated at 3-0 I think they'd have a chance but they need good wins to offset that loss. Their Indiana game this weekend could provide one as could their scheduled game against Iowa on 12/12. Maybe if they win convincingly over Indiana and Iowa then beat tOSU Champions Weekend but other than that, I don't see it.
That leaves Indiana. The Hoosiers have two wins over teams that were ranked at the time but both of those teams (PSU, M) are now sub .500 and unranked. I can't see how they would be taken over tOSU by the CFP after they lost H2H to the Buckeyes. I know it has happened before with tOSU over PSU a few years ago but there were some significant differences:
- When tOSU went over PSU despite a H2H loss, tOSU had a better record. That could only happen for IU this year vis-a-vis tOSU if the Buckeyes lose out.
- When tOSU went over PSU despite a H2H loss, PSU's two losses were BAD. That would only be the case if tOSU loses out.
Ie, I don't think IU has a chance unless they win out AND tOSU loses out.
So, as I see it, the B1G has one serious CFP contender in Ohio State. Then they have two more possible contenders but both are tenuous at best. Wisconsin needs convincing wins the next two weeks and an opportunity to play tOSU Champions weekend. Indiana needs to win out and for tOSU to lose out.
The IU/UW game this weekend is key. The loser is out and the winner will be the B1G's second highest ranked team.
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Honestly, this would be a good year to simply not have the playoff (they are all good years for that...).
There is no way to truly measure anything this season. Just do the bowl games and forget the rankings. This year is an exhibition at best.
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(https://i.imgflip.com/4dyi65.gif)
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This from Sam McKewon - Husker writer:::
How about this: What if Minnesota can’t play Nebraska next week, and Michigan can’t play Ohio State, and NU and OSU are left standing, contemplating a rematch?
According to ESPN, both sides have to agree to the rematch, which is why, apparently, Northwestern, which lost its game to Minnesota this week, doesn’t have to play Maryland on Saturday. In so declining the rematch, the Wildcats essentially guarantee clinching the Big Ten West… unless they lose to Illinois, and the six-game rule is rescinded, and Wisconsin finishes 4-1, with a higher winning percentage than the Wildcats. Fun, huh?
So, back to the possibility of a Nebraska-Ohio State rematch. Imagine NU, having the power to deny OSU — and thus the Big Ten — a chance for its best team to play in the league title game. Imagine the Huskers, accepting what almost certainly would be a loss, for the good of a league that has denied them multiple times this fall.
That’s for next week. This week, Ohio State plays Michigan State and is 23½-point favorite. I think the Buckeyes win, but are sluggish in shrugging off a stressful couple weeks.
My pick: Ohio State 35, Michigan State 14
Nebraska at Purdue
11 a.m., BTN
Line: Purdue by 2
I’m going to write two things and then duck. First, when you watch Purdue’s offense — the pistol run game, the well-timed running back screens, the use of receivers — you almost wish it was Nebraska’s offense. Second, I think this game ranks very high on Bob Diaco’s lifetime motivation lists.
My pick: Purdue 28, Nebraska 24
Indiana at Wisconsin
2:30 p.m., ABC
Line: Wisconsin by 14
IU’s defense should hold the Badgers in check a little bit, but it’s hard to see how the Hoosiers, without quarterback Michael Penix, pile up points.
My pick: Wisconsin 26, Indiana 13
Penn State at Rutgers
11 a.m., FS1
Line: Penn State by 11
Greg Schiano wants this one. If he can get the upper hand on PSU’s recruiting edge, even for a few years, look out. New Jersey kids will want to stay home. The Nittany Lions did win their first game last week, though.
My pick: Penn State 29, Rutgers 21
Iowa at Illinois
2:30 p.m., FS1
Line: Iowa by 13½
A wise person familiar with Iowa football once told me that Illinois is a hard place to play at because of the wind and the modest, almost tuned-out crowd. Hard to find the juice. This matchup features to the best turnover-creating defenses in the nation.
My pick: Iowa 31, Illinois 17
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Other options might include making up the Ohio State-Maryland game that was canceled on Nov. 14, which would leave Rutgers without a game as it is currently scheduled to play the Terps on Dec. 12. Might the league stitch together a game between Nebraska and Rutgers—two teams originally scheduled to play this season before shutdowns and reinstatements altered the calendar—instead of creating a rematch?
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Other options might include making up the Ohio State-Maryland game that was canceled on Nov. 14, which would leave Rutgers without a game as it is currently scheduled to play the Terps on Dec. 12. Might the league stitch together a game between Nebraska and Rutgers—two teams originally scheduled to play this season before shutdowns and reinstatements altered the calendar—instead of creating a rematch?
Assuming that tOSU and UNL are without opponents for 12/12 I would assume that tOSU/UNL part two will more than likely happen.
I don't think the UMD/RU switch would work out because there are too many moving parts and I think that UMD and RU have something of a mini-rivalry being two teams that joined together. I don't know.
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Question: If Iowa defeats Wisconsin next Saturday to go 6-2, and Illinois defeats Northwestern for Northwestern to go 5-2, then why does Northwestern win the Western Division?
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head to head
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seems like intent was to allow for some game loss tolerance (I'm not reading the fine print, I know, and I probably should) but I suspect head to head trumps overall record, provided a team has played the required number of games.