CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 30, 2020, 11:38:40 AM
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B1G-East:
- 4-0 Ohio State: They are in the CG so long as they play their last two games and don't lose both. However, they are out if they miss another game and could be out if they lose both.
- 5-1 Indiana: The Hoosiers would lose a tie with tOSU or win a tie with UMD. They are in if they win out and tOSU loses out or if they win at least one more and tOSU misses at least one more or if tOSU misses at least one more and UMD loses at least one more.
- 2-2 Maryland: The only way they can make it is if tOSU misses at least one more and Indiana loses out.
- 2-3 Michigan State: Cannot get to the CG but could theoretically tie for the Division Championship*.
- All other B1G-E teams are mathematically eliminated because IU is already eligible and can do no worse than 5-3. That could be tied with MSU but the Hoosiers already beat MSU so it wouldn't matter.
Weird theoretical possibility*:
- tOSU misses at least one more game.
- IU loses out (@UW, vPU).
- MSU plays at least one more game and wins all remaining games that they play (vtOSU, @PSU).
- UMD plays both of their remaining games and goes 1-1 (@M, vRU).
In that case the Buckeyes would be ineligible and the best eligible teams would be:
- 5-3 Indiana
- 4-3 or 3-3 Michigan State
- 3-3 Maryland
You would think that IU would simply win because 5-3 is better than either 4-3 or 3-3 and the Hoosiers already beat both the Spartans and the Terps but it isn't that simple.
The B1G 2020 tiebreraker (https://s3.amazonaws.com/bigten.org/documents/2020/10/22/2020_Big_Ten_Football_Tiebreakers.pdf) stipulates that "If two (or more) teams have the same number of conference losses but a different number of conference wins, head-to-head results will take precedence over winning percentage, as long as the two (or more) teams meet the minimum number of games language noted above."
So Indiana still wins because they are 2-0 H2H2H while Spartans and Terps are each 0-1, right? Well, no. Down in the multiple team language the first step is H2H . . . 2H but it stipulates that "In the event of an unbalanced schedule, if one or multiple teams did not play all teams in the group of tied teams, move to the next step in tiebreaker."
Thus, Indiana's superior winning percentage and 2-0 H2H record do NOT get them to the CG and we move to the next step, winning percentage within the division with the stipulation that really, only losses count. In this case their division records would be:
- 5-1 Indiana (beat PSU, RU, M, MSU, and UMD, lost to tOSU).
- 3-1 Maryland (beat PSU, M, RU, lost to IU).
- 2-2 or 3-2 Michigan State (beat M and either tOSU or PSU or both, lost to RU and IU).
That STILL doesn't break the tie because according to the B1G, in 2020 5-1 = 3-1 so Indiana and Maryland are still tied. However, Indiana wins because MSU is eliminated which means that IU and UMD revert to the two-team tiebreaker of H2H where the Hoosiers beat the Terps.
In the end, IU goes anyway, but it is just weird that they would go based on something like tiebreaker #46 rather than just going based on superior winning percentage or being 2-0 against the two teams with the same number of losses as them.
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B1G-W:
- 5-1 Northwestern: They are in the CG so long as they don't lose both of their remaining games (@MN, vIL). If the MN game this weekend is cancelled, Northwestern clinches based on the cancellation.
- 4-2 Iowa: They can only get to the CG if they win (or don't play) all of their remaining games (@IL, vUW) AND Northwestern plays and loses both of their remaining games.
- 2-1 Wisconsin: The Badgers are ineligible for the CG unless nearly all remaining B1G games are cancelled and even if that happened they would still need NU to play (and lose) two games which probably isn't possible if there are that many cancellations so they are out.
- 2-3 Minnesota: The Gophers could get there if they win out (vNU, @UNL) and NU loses their other game and Iowa loses out.
- 2-3 Purdue: Maybe theoretically but not practically.
- 2-3 Illinois: see Purdue.
- 1-4 Nebraska: The Cornhuskers are eliminated because NU is already eligible and can do no worse than 5-3.
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Guys.
Could Michigan get enough COVID to cancel The Game, and thus hurt OSU's chances of making the playoff by denying them a conference crown? My God, Jim could in some small way maybe beat Michigan!
(I'm 10 percent irked because this might end in a UW-OSU second-place game, which I would not prefer. Maybe UW's Dec. 19 matchup could get COVID and Minnesota could sub in)
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Guys.
Could Michigan get enough COVID to cancel The Game, and thus hurt OSU's chances of making the playoff by denying them a conference crown? My God, Jim could in some small way maybe beat Michigan!
(I'm 10 percent irked because this might end in a UW-OSU second-place game, which I would not prefer. Maybe UW's Dec. 19 matchup could get COVID and Minnesota could sub in)
First, I think you meant:
My God, Jim could in some small way maybe beat Ohio State!
Second, it is possible but only if Ohio State can manage to find a way to play their game against Michigan State this weekend first. If the MSU/tOSU game gets cancelled then Ohio State will be ineligible regardless of whether or not they play Michigan.
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Guys.
Could Michigan get enough COVID to cancel The Game, and thus hurt OSU's chances of making the playoff by denying them a conference crown? My God, Jim could in some small way maybe beat Michigan!
(I'm 10 percent irked because this might end in a UW-OSU second-place game, which I would not prefer. Maybe UW's Dec. 19 matchup could get COVID and Minnesota could sub in)
I am not sure the Gophers will play another game. Already canceled this weeks game with NW high probability that Nebraska's game will also. Then I am not sure they would come back for a 1 game opportunity as they will not have practiced for over two weeks.
I am sooo tired of COVID-19; vaccinate everyone and come up with a treatment to prevent deaths NOW
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With NW-MINNY canceled, I wonder if NW could line up a replacement game.
Not sure why NW would want to, but maybe NW could end up playing MD instead if Mich ends canceling the Mich-MD game.
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practice before a game and game reps are the best way to prepare and get your team better
even building depth and experience if resting starters during the game
I'm sure Fritz knows this better than I
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An interesting twist in the race of East division vs West division. The West went into last weekend with a 3 game lead over the East, plus the West was favored in 2 out of 3 games.
When the ILL-OSU was canceled, things were looking really good for the West, then NW and Purdue both blew late leads, to MSU and Rutgers. So the East finished 2-0 for the week and the West's lead is now down to 1 game only.
This week there is only 1 cross-division game. Indy at Wiscy. The following week there is only 1 cross-division game. Purdue at Indy.
So this means 2 things. Indy is done playing all the teams in its own division and its only 2 games left are against the West. That means its up to Indy to save the East, well, except that there will be another 7 cross- division games durung the upcoming champions week that will actually decide it all.