CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 19, 2020, 12:30:34 PM
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ACC:
The ACC is playing a divisionless schedule with Notre Dame included so the top two teams will meet in the CG. Here is their tiebreaking procedure (https://theacc.com/sports/2020/9/23/FB_0923200510.aspx).
- 7-0 Notre Dame: The Irish are a near lock. They are mathematically in no matter what even with a loss (remaining games @UNC, vs Cuse, @Wake) and they'd have a decent shot even if they lost two of those three.
- 6-1 Clemson: The Tigers control their own destiny because they already beat the Hurricanes but if they lose a game while Miami wins out, the Tigers would miss the ACCCG for the first time in what seems like about 20 years (actually only since 2014).
- 6-1 Miami: The Hurricanes need help. They can't make it unless Clemson loses or ND loses twice.
- 6-2 UNC: The Tar Heels still have ND (this weekend) and Miami (12/12) on the schedule. If they win out that would take out Miami and get them within a game of both Clemson and ND but they'd still need somebody else to beat either ND or Clemson to get them in.
The other 11 teams each have at least three losses so while there may be some crazy mathematical possibility for one of them, as a practical matter they are eliminated.
B12:
The Big Twelve is playing a full round-robin of their ten teams and a divisionless schedule where the top two teams will meet in the CG. The top five teams each have two or less conference losses. The rest each have at least three. The teams with three losses may have some crazy mathematical possibility to get there but as a practical matter they are eliminated. Here is a table of the contenders and their results against each other:
(https://i.imgur.com/85lzlr1.png)
We are going to find out a LOT this weekend. KSU and OU, for all practical purposes, face elimination. If they both win (and assuming Texas beats Kansas) then all five teams will have two conference losses and this thing will likely come down to the final weekend.
PAC 12:
Too early to say much.
SEC:
For all practical purposes the Tide and Gators are locks. Unless one of them loses at least two of their last four SEC games, they are going to meet in the SECCG. Florida's last four are:
- @ 0-6 Vandy
- vs 3-4 UK
- @ 2-4 TN
- vs 2-3 LSU
Bama's last four are:
- vs 3-4 UK
- vs 4-2 Auburn
- @ 3-4 Arkansas
- @ 2-3 LSU (if they can figure out how to schedule it)
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B12:
The Big Twelve is playing a full round-robin of their ten teams and a divisionless schedule where the top two teams will meet in the CG. The top five teams each have two or less conference losses. The rest each have at least three. The teams with three losses may have some crazy mathematical possibility to get there but as a practical matter they are eliminated. Here is a table of the contenders and their results against each other:
(https://i.imgur.com/85lzlr1.png)
We are going to find out a LOT this weekend. KSU and OU, for all practical purposes, face elimination. If they both win (and assuming Texas beats Kansas) then all five teams will have two conference losses and this thing will likely come down to the final weekend.
If the bolded happens, and then Texas loses to both ISU and KSU down the stretch, then there could be a four way tie between Oklahoma, OSU2, Iowa St and Kansas St.
But only two can go to their CCG...
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B12:
The Big Twelve is playing a full round-robin of their ten teams and a divisionless schedule where the top two teams will meet in the CG. The top five teams each have two or less conference losses. The rest each have at least three. The teams with three losses may have some crazy mathematical possibility to get there but as a practical matter they are eliminated. Here is a table of the contenders and their results against each other:
(https://i.imgur.com/85lzlr1.png)
We are going to find out a LOT this weekend. KSU and OU, for all practical purposes, face elimination. If they both win (and assuming Texas beats Kansas) then all five teams will have two conference losses and this thing will likely come down to the final weekend.
Rooting interests in the B12 are really screwy this weekend.
Bedlam probably has the biggest impact so I'll start there:
- Oklahoma is the only team with two losses to other top-5 teams (ISU, KSU) and
- OkSU is the only team with two wins over other top-5 teams
The interesting thing here is that it is the same two teams. Both ISU and KSU have a win over OU and a loss to OkSU on their resume. Consequently, their fans should be rooting for the Sooners over the Cowboys. OTOH, Texas has a loss to the Sooners so they would be helped by an Oklahoma loss.
If Oklahoma wins:
- OkSU gets their second B12 loss thus guaranteeing that at least one B12CG participant will have two conference losses.
- OU, OkSU, and Texas would all have two losses. ISU and KSU would join them if KSU beats ISU.
If Oklahoma State wins:
- Oklahoma at 4-3 would be effectively eliminated.
- ISU's and KSU's wins over OU would be devalued as that would be extremely unlikely to be a relevant tiebreaker.
- Texas' loss to OU would become less problematic as they would be a game ahead and still have a crack at both ISU and KSU. Thus, Texas would control their own destiny because by winning out they could do no worse than a tie for second with ISU and they would win that based on H2H.
The other big game is KSU at ISU. For each other team:
- OkSU already beat them both so they probably don't care.
- OU lost to both but they are probably better off with an ISU win because they can be behind one team that they lost to, just not two.
- Texas hasn't played either so it doesn't matter too much to them.
If KSU wins:
- ISU gets their second B12 loss thus guaranteeing that at least one B12CG participant will have two conference losses.
- ISU, KSU, and Texas would all have two losses. OU and OkSU would join them if OU beats OkSU.
If ISU wins:
- KSU at 4-3 would be effectively eliminated.
- OkSU's win over KSU would be devalued as that would be extremely unlikely to be a relevant tiebreaker.
- OU's loss to KSU would become less problematic as they would be a game a head (at least until that evening).
The most fun (from an outsider perspective) scenario is for OU and KSU to both win. Then those two along with ISU, OkSU, and Texas would all be tied in the loss column with two losses each.
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If the bolded happens, and then Texas loses to both ISU and KSU down the stretch, then there could be a four way tie between Oklahoma, OSU2, Iowa St and Kansas St.
But only two can go to their CCG...
Here is the B12's tiebreaking procedure (https://big12sports.com/news/2008/7/31/1546006.aspx).
Your example as I understand it:
- KSU beats ISU this weekend.
- OU beats OkSU this weekend.
- KSU wins out from there (@Baylor, v Tx)
- ISU wins out from there (@Tx, v WVU)
- OkSU wins out from there (v TxTech, @ TCU, @ Baylor)
- OU wins out from there (@ WVU, v Baylor)
Thus we get a four-way tie. This is actually pretty simple (ties among even numbers of teams usually are because they can't all go .500 against each other):
- 7-2 KSU is 2-1 against the other three (beat OU and ISU, lost to OkSU)
- 7-2 OkSU is 2-1 against the other three (beat ISU and KSU, lost to OU)
- 7-2 OU is 1-2 against the other three (beat OkSU, lost to KSU and ISU)
- 7-2 ISU is 1-2 against the other three (beat OU, lost to OkSU and KSU)
Thus KSU and OkSU would play in the B12CG.
The complex ties are usually ties among three or five teams like the infamous 3-way tie between OU, TX, and TxTech where they all went 1-1 against each other a few years ago.
The problem with H2H, as always, is that it effectively rewards teams for bad losses. The winners in this scenario are the two teams that have losses to worse teams. OkSU (TX) and KSU (WVU) would both have losses to teams that finished with at least four B12 losses while the losers (OU and ISU) would only have lost to teams that finished with two or less B12 losses.
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So then the real conundrum would be if Texas were to go 1-1 vs KSU and ISU down the stretch, creating the dreaded threeway tie between OSU2, Oklahoma, and ISU/KSU whereby all three go 1-1 against each other.
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we have something to root for
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I'd rewrite it to say whichever defense holds their common opponents to under 30 points is the conference champ.
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Nobody would win the SEC then?
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I suspect Texas will go 2-1 or 1-2 against ISU, KSU, and Kansas. Should make for an interesting set of tie-breakers at season's end.
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Good thread, Medina!