CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on November 08, 2020, 01:29:18 AM
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Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-2-18241/).
Votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 17 voters (with adjustments by @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) and @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) to include Wisconsin):
(https://i.imgur.com/4U8JC1n.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/uhlJDxZ.png)
Graphic representation:
(https://i.imgur.com/kB7NReC.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/Rt7BGd9.jpg)
Change from preseason (aka the COTY/Hot Seat chart):
(https://i.imgur.com/FUQHQAp.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/y99Ca8w.png)
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I reserve the right to come back and tweak my answer but here is what I am thinking right now.
1 OSU
OSU is the clear #1. The only no- brainer on the list.
2 Wisc
Not much to go on except a week one blow-out win over 0-3 ILL. An actual game against purdue would have really helped sort out the rankings.
3. Indy
Convincing win over Mich helps me believe
4. NW
NW has a very good defense. The week one blow-out win over MD looks more impressive now.
5. Purdue
An actual game against Wisc would have really helped sort out the rankings
6. Iowa
Good old Iowa. Never wins the games it needs to in order to win the West, but can always blow out the teams that don't matter
7. Mich
For now I am going to treat Mich's loss to MSU as a fluke but the loss to Indy as legit.
8. Minn
Minn very close to being 2-1 but loss badly to Mich. Its loss to MD was by 1 point on the road. That's enough to stay above MD
9. MD
MD makes a big jump up this week, but I have been fooled by MD before.
10. PSU
I got this nagging feeling I am dropping PSU too far down but they are 0-3 and they lost to MD!!! By 16 points!!!
11. Rut
Rutgers is actually competitive this year, which is a big improvement from last year.
12. Neb
Neb may not actually be as bad as #12 but they are 0-2 and I got to put somebody here.
13. MSU
Treating the win over Mich as a fluke and loss to Rutgers as legit. MSU could not have looked any worse against Iowa.
14. ILL.
Blown out twice in an 0-3 start.
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Northwestern
4. Purdue
<<Pukes in mouth>>
5. Maryland
6. Minnesota
7. Iowa
8. Rutgers
9. Michigan State
10. Nebraska
11. Michigan
12. Penn State
13. Illinois
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1. Ohio State: Probably the best in show, but this isn't last year's team. While Fields and the receivers are spectacular, we are back to our questions about the running game and defense. Both Nebraska and Rutgers brought a physicality to the game that OSU struggled to match. OSU was straight up bad against Rutgers in the second half yesterday. I thought they solved those against PSU, but maybe PSU just sucks.
2. Wisconsin: I suppose. They looked good when we last saw them, but everyone has looked good against Illinois.
3. Indiana: I thought Indiana could beat Michigan. I did not expect a straight up ass whipping. They are rounding into form and can definitely give the Buckeyes a run for their money in a couple weeks. Penix can deal at quarterback, and if their defense is fast and active like they were yesterday, they can win the conference.
4. Northwestern: Back to being good Northwestern where they play great defense and score just enough points to win,. They have a great shot in the West. They were somehow outgained by 100 yards by Nebraska, but they are undefeated. Scoreboard don't always lie.
5. Purdue: No big game against Wiscy to figure out where they are. But they are undefeated and can run the table for the West. Not sold on their defense, but the big Purdue/Northwestern tilt next week should solve some issues for us.
6. Iowa: Good old Iowa. I was a little worried, because 0-3 Iowa makes no sense. 1-2 Iowa makes more sense.
7. Maryland: I mean, is Maryland good? I admit I had no faith at all in them, and getting waxed by Northwestern and a very tight win over Minny isn't inspirational. But laying a whooping on Penn State has to open some eyes.
8. Michigan: I have to think they will be better than this, but watching Indiana go up and down the field on them yesterday was stunning. The offense and Milton are ok, but ok doesn't cut it when you can't stop people.
9. Penn State: No words. What happened to them?
10. Nebraska: Playing with some spunk, might just be unlucky in their schedule. They get PSU this week - a breather?
11. Minnesota: They started slow last year, maybe again this year? Actually played a little defense yesterday.
12. Rutgers: Play with a lot of spunk. Need more dudes.
13. MSU: Not an inspiring performance.
14. Illinois: Lovie's last dance
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1. Ohio State: Probably the best in show, but this isn't last year's team. While Fields and the receivers are spectacular, we are back to our questions about the running game and defense. Both Nebraska and Rutgers brought a physicality to the game that OSU struggled to match. OSU was straight up bad against Rutgers in the second half yesterday. I thought they solved those against PSU, but maybe PSU just sucks.
2. Wisconsin: I suppose. They looked good when we last saw them, but everyone has looked good against Illinois.
3. Indiana: I thought Indiana could beat Michigan. I did not expect a straight up ass whipping. They are rounding into form and can definitely give the Buckeyes a run for their money in a couple weeks. Penix can deal at quarterback, and if their defense is fast and active like they were yesterday, they can win the conference.
4. Northwestern: Back to being good Northwestern where they play great defense and score just enough points to win,. They have a great shot in the West. They were somehow outgained by 100 yards by Nebraska, but they are undefeated. Scoreboard don't always lie.
5. Purdue: No big game against Wiscy to figure out where they are. But they are undefeated and can run the table for the West. Not sold on their defense, but the big Purdue/Northwestern tilt next week should solve some issues for us.
6. Iowa: Good old Iowa. I was a little worried, because 0-3 Iowa makes no sense. 1-2 Iowa makes more sense.
7. Maryland: I mean, is Maryland good? I admit I had no faith at all in them, and getting waxed by Northwestern and a very tight win over Minny isn't inspirational. But laying a whooping on Penn State has to open some eyes.
8. Michigan: I have to think they will be better than this, but watching Indiana go up and down the field on them yesterday was stunning. The offense and Milton are ok, but ok doesn't cut it when you can't stop people.
9. Penn State: No words. What happened to them?
10. Nebraska: Playing with some spunk, might just be unlucky in their schedule. They get PSU this week - a breather?
11. Minnesota: They started slow last year, maybe again this year? Actually played a little defense yesterday.
12. Rutgers: Play with a lot of spunk. Need more dudes.
13. MSU: Not an inspiring performance.
14. Illinois: Lovie's last dance
Very good assessment.
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1 Ohio State
2 Indiana
3 Northwestern
4 Purdue
5 Iowa
6 Maryland
7 Penn State
8 Nebraska
9 Rutgers
10 Michigan tate
11 Michigan
12 Minnesota
13 Illinois
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Northwestern
4. Purdue
5. Wisconsin
6. Maryland
7. Iowa
8. Minnesota
9. Michigan State
10. Rutgers
11. Penn State
12. Nebraska
13. Michigan
14. Illinois
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1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) Wisconsin
4) Northwestern
5) Purdue
6) Maryland
7) Iowa
8) Minnesota
9) Michigan State
10) Michigan
11) Rutgers
12) Nebraska
13) Penn State
14) Illinois
I never thought it would come down to Ohio State and Indiana for East supremacy. Sparty, UM and PSU have all fallen off the face of the Earth this year and have just two wins among all three. Maryland and Rutgers look feisty but neither appear to be real players (except maybe to play spoiler).
West is a whole freaking mess right now. Wisconsin for all intents and purposes looks to be the best, but Northwestern and Purdue remain unbeaten as well. Iowa and Minnesota have righted their ships this week, and Nebraska and Illinois might be looking for new coaches soon, yet again.
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1.OSU- if they had 30 COVID cases they could still beat a lot of BigTen teams
2.Indiana- Great game showing why they are undefeated
3.Purdue- can’t help they didn’t get a chance to play
4.Northwestern- Keeps it rolling, but a close game to an 0-fer team
5.Maryland- is showing they have some talent, and if you are not OSU you better be at full strength
6.Iowa- will get another win this week
7.Wisconsin- by default, will they play against a down Michigan team desperately in need of a win
8.Minnesota- slowly guys return. offense is good (Mo is the best in the BigTen)
9.Nebraska- losing to OSU and keeping NU close gets you a little credit
10.Michigan- Guessing beating MN with guys out is not that impressive
11.MSU- Dr Jekyll and Mr. Hyde , no idea if the roller coaster ride has stopped
12. Rutgers- back to Rutgers but there is some light at the end of a tunnel here
13.PSU- they can’t be the bottom
14.Illinois- the Bottom is here With Rutgers this week maybe they can get the #14 luck and win one
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SP+
1. OSU (2)
2. Wisconsin (4)
3. PSU (14)
4. Michigan (18)
5. Iowa (16)
6. Indiana (29)
7. Minnesota (31)
8. Northwestern (33)
9. Nebraska (34)
10. Purdue (35)
11. MSU (62)
12. Maryland (68)
13. Illinois (83)
14. Rutgers (107)
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1 Ohio State
2 Indiana
3 Northwestern
4 Purdue
5 Iowa
6 Maryland
7 Rutgers
8 Wisconsin
9 Penn State
10 Nebraska
11 Michigan State
12 Michigan
13 Minnesota
14 Illinois
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1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Wisconsin
4. Northwestern
5. Purdue
6. Maryland
7. Iowa
8. Rutgers
9. Michigan State
10. Michigan
11. Minnesota
12. Nebraska
13. Penn State
14. Illinois
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- Ohio State
- Wisconsin (I know they haven't played but I still feel like they're #1 in the west and #2 overall)
- Northwestern
- Indiana
- Purdue
- Iowa
- Maryland
- Minnesota
- Michigan
- Penn State
- Nebraska
- Rutgers
- Michigan State
- Illinois
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Trying something a little different because the middle is such a jumbled mess:
Here is how each team has done in their games so far compared to the other teams that played those same opponents:
Notes:
- I'm just using raw score except that I consider an OT game to be closer than a game decided in regulation.
- Other than the exception for OT, each team's opponents are ranked based on how those opponents did against that team relative to each other.
- I've left Illinois' game against Wisconsin off of the list because it tells us nothing since it is both the best and the worst performance against Wisconsin so far this year.
- For the two teams each that have played PU and UNL, I ranked them #1 and #3 to be consistent with the other rankings since they only have two opponents instead of three (ie, the best is #1 and the worst is #3).
Example, against Ohio State:
- PSU is #1, having only lost to the Buckeyes by 13
- Rutgers is #3, having lost to the Buckeyes by 22
- Nebraska is #3, having lost to the Buckeyes by 35
Teams by the average on this scale:
Average of #1:
- Wisconsin: I'm basically ignoring this since it is only one game.
- Iowa: This is somewhat surprising since the Hawkeyes are just 1-2, but all three games are the best any team has done against that opponent so far this year.
Average of 1.33:
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes were #1 against RU and UNL and #2 (behind UMD) against PSU.
Average of 1.67:
- Penn State: Despite being 0-3, Penn State's performances other than against UMD were #1 so far this year.
Average of #2:
- Indiana: The Hoosiers were #1 against Michigan, #2 against Rutgers, and #3 against PSU.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats were #1 against UMD, #2 against Iowa, and #3 against UNL.
- Purdue: The Boilermakers were #1 against Iowa and #3 against Illinois.
- Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights were #2 against all three of their opponents (tOSU, IU, and MSU).
- Maryland: The Terps were #1 against PSU, #2 against MN, and #3 against NU.
Average of 2.33:
- Michigan: The Wolverines were #1 against MN, and #3 against the Hoosiers and Spartans.
- Minnesota: The Gophers were #2 against UMD and IL and #3 against Michigan.
Average of 2.5:
- Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were #2 against NU and #3 against tOSU.
Average of 2.67:
- Michigan State: The Spartans were #2 against M and #3 against IA and RU.
Average of #3:
- Illinois: The Illini have the worst performance of the year against both the Boilermakers and the Gophers.
These are NOT my rankings. I'm just using this as a tool to evaluate each team's performances.
Things that jump out at me:
- Iowa's average of #1 is impressive. They are 1-2 but they are also two plays from 3-0 and so far no team has done better against any of Iowa's opponents.
- Penn State's average of 1.67 is interesting. Their season-opening loss to Indiana is looking better each week and there is no shame in losing to Ohio State by 13 but I don't know what to make of that loss to Maryland. The worst part is that it wasn't even as close as the final score made it look. Penn State "only" lost by 16 but they were down by 28 in the fourth quarter before making it look a little better with a couple of late TD's.
- Illinois' average of #3 confirms that they are just awful.
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- Ohio State: This is the only obvious until #14.
- Wisconsin: For two reasons: First, I think that, at full strength, they are second best. Second, I don't see any other team making a really strong case for #2.
- Indiana: The Hoosiers win over Michigan was impressive, but I'm still not completely convinced.
- Iowa: Despite their losses to #5 and #7 on this list, I think the Hawkeyes might be better.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats season-opening win over UMD looks a LOT better now that UMD throttled PSU.
- Penn State: Despite being 0-3, their performances aren't THAT bad.
- Purdue: This may be lower than a lot of people rank the Boilermakers and part of that is a lack of data. Their two performances are the best against Iowa and the worst against Illinois. I'm not sure what to make of that.
- Michigan: I realize that they just got shelled by the Hoosiers but Michigan can't actually be THAT bad can they?
- Maryland: Their game against PSU was wildly impressive.
- Nebraska: Despite their performance against tOSU being #3 in terms of final score, I thought they were more competitive against the Buckeyes than . . .
- Rutgers: They are consistent. They were second best against each of their opponents.
- Minnesota: Their season-opening home loss to Michigan looks worse each week.
- Michigan State: Apparently the new coach will take longer than one game to get up to speed.
- Illinois: At this point they are more clear at #14 then the Buckeyes are at #1.
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@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) and @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) :
In the interest of consistency and compatibility could you two please place Wisconsin into your rankings where you think they would be either:
- At full strength, or
- If they played with their COVID-depleted roster
Right now there are 11 voters. Nine of us voted Illinois #14 but you two voted them #13. The thing is that I don't think you two actually disagree with the rest of us. We all agree that Illinois is the worst team in the B1G. The difference is that while the other nine of us ranked 14 B1G teams, you two ranked the 13 B1G teams that are playing and omitted the Badgers. I get it, and there is a good argument for your way, but it would be more difficult to get nine people to change their rankings than it would be to get the two of you to change yours so please match the group and rank all 14.
On this issue going forward:
IMHO, if Wisconsin doesn't play this week, we should all leave them off. OTOH, if they DO play this week then they are back and should be eligible for the B1GCG so we should all include them.
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1. Ohio State (0) - until someone beats them.
2. Wisconsin (0) - until someone or covid beats them.
3. Indiana (0) - I had them here last week, didn't expect them to manhandle TTUN, but thought they have a better than average chance to win the game.
4. Northwestern (+1) - I only watched a quarter of the game, and Nebraska looked better, but purple got the win.
5. Purdue (+2) - others lost
6. Maryland (+4) - I try to only move a team 3 spots to prevent a 1 game over reaction, but 2020.
7. Penn State (-3) - umm, I kinda still expect them to win out.
8. Nebraska (+1) - I thought they could beat Northwestern, 6 Red Zone trips sounds like Huskers can move the ball just not punch it in (Or Wildcats just locked down the Red Zone.)
9. Michigan (-1) - Windiana. ha ha ha ha ha ha ha.
10. Iowa (+1)
11. Michigan State (-4) way to make pedestrian Iowa look like a playoff contender.
12. Minnesota (+1) - more so because I don't want to knock MSU down too far versus I actually think MSU is better.
13. Rutgers (-1)
14. Illinois (0)
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@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) and @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) :
In the interest of consistency and compatibility could you two please place Wisconsin into your rankings where you think they would be either:
- At full strength, or
- If they played with their COVID-depleted roster
Right now there are 11 voters. Nine of us voted Illinois #14 but you two voted them #13. The thing is that I don't think you two actually disagree with the rest of us. We all agree that Illinois is the worst team in the B1G. The difference is that while the other nine of us ranked 14 B1G teams, you two ranked the 13 B1G teams that are playing and omitted the Badgers. I get it, and there is a good argument for your way, but it would be more difficult to get nine people to change their rankings than it would be to get the two of you to change yours so please match the group and rank all 14.
On this issue going forward:
IMHO, if Wisconsin doesn't play this week, we should all leave them off. OTOH, if they DO play this week then they are back and should be eligible for the B1GCG so we should all include them.
OK, so they are playing this week.
Stick them in where I puked in my mouth, for now.
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@847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) and @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) :
In the interest of consistency and compatibility could you two please place Wisconsin into your rankings where you think they would be either:
- At full strength, or
- If they played with their COVID-depleted roster
Right now there are 11 voters. Nine of us voted Illinois #14 but you two voted them #13. The thing is that I don't think you two actually disagree with the rest of us. We all agree that Illinois is the worst team in the B1G. The difference is that while the other nine of us ranked 14 B1G teams, you two ranked the 13 B1G teams that are playing and omitted the Badgers. I get it, and there is a good argument for your way, but it would be more difficult to get nine people to change their rankings than it would be to get the two of you to change yours so please match the group and rank all 14.
On this issue going forward:
IMHO, if Wisconsin doesn't play this week, we should all leave them off. OTOH, if they DO play this week then they are back and should be eligible for the B1GCG so we should all include them.
should everyone be ranked as if they were at full strength or as they are with COVID cases and opt outs?
I can say that Illinois is not as bad a squad at full strength and so on but we treat Illinois differently that other teams?
lack of knowledge as to who is out with COVID vs injury has been hard on each squad for depth and forced into starting roles
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SP+
14. Rutgers (107)
SP+ is still poo-pooing on Rutgers.
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1) Ohio State
2) Indiana
3) Northwestern
4) Wisconsin
5) Purdue
6) Iowa
7) Michigan
8) Maryland
9) Rutgers
10) Michigan State
11) Minnesota
12) Nebraska
13) Penn State
14) Illinois
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Trying something a little different because the middle is such a jumbled mess:
Here is how each team has done in their games so far compared to the other teams that played those same opponents:
Notes:
- I'm just using raw score except that I consider an OT game to be closer than a game decided in regulation.
- Other than the exception for OT, each team's opponents are ranked based on how those opponents did against that team relative to each other.
- I've left Illinois' game against Wisconsin off of the list because it tells us nothing since it is both the best and the worst performance against Wisconsin so far this year.
- For the two teams each that have played PU and UNL, I ranked them #1 and #3 to be consistent with the other rankings since they only have two opponents instead of three (ie, the best is #1 and the worst is #3).
Example, against Ohio State:
- PSU is #1, having only lost to the Buckeyes by 13
- Rutgers is #3, having lost to the Buckeyes by 22
- Nebraska is #3, having lost to the Buckeyes by 35
Teams by the average on this scale:
Average of #1:
- Wisconsin: I'm basically ignoring this since it is only one game.
- Iowa: This is somewhat surprising since the Hawkeyes are just 1-2, but all three games are the best any team has done against that opponent so far this year.
Average of 1.33:
- Ohio State: The Buckeyes were #1 against RU and UNL and #2 (behind UMD) against PSU.
Average of 1.67:
- Penn State: Despite being 0-3, Penn State's performances other than against UMD were #1 so far this year.
Average of #2:
- Indiana: The Hoosiers were #1 against Michigan, #2 against Rutgers, and #3 against PSU.
- Northwestern: The Wildcats were #1 against UMD, #2 against Iowa, and #3 against UNL.
- Purdue: The Boilermakers were #1 against Iowa and #3 against Illinois.
- Rutgers: The Scarlet Knights were #2 against all three of their opponents (tOSU, IU, and MSU).
- Maryland: The Terps were #1 against PSU, #2 against MN, and #3 against NU.
Average of 2.33:
- Michigan: The Wolverines were #1 against MN, and #3 against the Hoosiers and Spartans.
- Minnesota: The Gophers were #2 against UMD and IL and #3 against Michigan.
Average of 2.5:
- Nebraska: The Cornhuskers were #2 against NU and #3 against tOSU.
Average of 2.67:
- Michigan State: The Spartans were #2 against M and #3 against IA and RU.
Average of #3:
- Illinois: The Illini have the worst performance of the year against both the Boilermakers and the Gophers.
These are NOT my rankings. I'm just using this as a tool to evaluate each team's performances.
Things that jump out at me:
- Iowa's average of #1 is impressive. They are 1-2 but they are also two plays from 3-0 and so far no team has done better against any of Iowa's opponents.
- Penn State's average of 1.67 is interesting. Their season-opening loss to Indiana is looking better each week and there is no shame in losing to Ohio State by 13 but I don't know what to make of that loss to Maryland. The worst part is that it wasn't even as close as the final score made it look. Penn State "only" lost by 16 but they were down by 28 in the fourth quarter before making it look a little better with a couple of late TD's.
- Illinois' average of #3 confirms that they are just awful.
Love this idea, but it's a little too noisy because of the lack of data points.
Any chance you're going to update this week to week?
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Unfortunately, with the gorgeous weather we had this weekend, I didn't watch ANY of the daytime games as I was outside taking advantage of the weather and getting the house ready for winter. So my sense of how things played out is somewhat, incomplete. I did manage to catch a little of the Maryland/PSU debacle, and saw a few plays of MSU getting mauled by Iowa while eating some lunch, but I only saw highlights from the rest of the games.
1. Ohio State - As someone mentioned early, still have not gotten their run game going. Trying to run Teague on slow developing plays on the edge is not a recipe for success for the run game. And Try Sermon has shown some ability but is easily tripped up and brought down. That goes for Teague as well. Neither seem to be able to break arm tackles.
2. Wisconsin - I still believe they are the 2nd best team in the B1G. Just hope to see it on the field sooner than later.
.
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3. Indiana - Of the next group of teams, Indiana seems to rise to the top. They seemed to have handled Mich well and are undefeated. Is Penix the real deal? We shall find out
4. Northwestern - Still play good defense. I really thought the offense would be more consistent with Ramsey at QB, but I also hear their Bowser did not play? That would definitely hurt them on offense as I believe that he is one of the better RB's in the conf.
5. Iowa - It looks like the Hawks came to play sat. This is the team I thought we would see all year.
6. Purdue - I know they beat Iowa head to head, but I don't think they could do it consistently. But having a good year.
7. Maryland - We'll see how far they have come this Saturday. There QB with more vowels in his name that I can pronounce, seems to be the answer to what they have been missing offensively. This could be a scary team.
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8. Michigan - Best of the rest?
9. Nebraska - I am tempted to move them ahead of Mich, but I honestly believe that Mich would beat them H2H on a neutral field.
10. Penn State - Is it just me or does this team look like it just quit? I know that someone mentioned earlier that they have let OSU beat them 3 times. That just may be the case. Let's see if Franklin is worth the money they pay him and get this team to show up for the rest of the season.
11. Rutgers - Showed that they will play until the end of the game. That's a move in the right direction for Schiano.
12. Minnesota - Slightly better than the teams below them.
13. Michigan State - Have the win over Mich, but not much else. They were thoroughly whipped by Iowa.
14. Illinois - Illinois is trying and succeeding to out Rutgers, Rutgers.
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Bowser is kind of a strange case. Would be interested to hear from NU fans (if there are any on here anymore). He was great in 2018, but then had a pretty bad year last year. I assume there must've been some injuries involved. At this point, I think he has fallen back on the depth chart.
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OK, I will give it a shot. My rankings are based on non-covid plans.
1. OSU until proven otherwise. Only they can struggle for a half and still win by 20+
2. Wisconsin even if they don't play because I would put them here on a bye week also
3. IU they have always been just short of being a solid team, I think they found that extra step
4. Northwestern - defense will keep them in most games while Ramsey gets more comfortable in the offense
5. Purdue - Had a lot of help week one but I think the extra "bye" week will help
6. Maryland - Obviously they can score big. I still question their defense and we have seen this story before of them starting strong
7. Iowa - Definitely missed the OOC tune-ups but was the win over MSU the real team or is it just the fluky dominating win they seem to have every year. Going with the latter
8. Minn - early loss to UM is looking worse each week and not confident with a dominate win over #14. We will see this week
9. Nebraska - Had their chances but blew it. Iowa was the same way against Northwestern so maybe it's Northwestern's defense
10. MSU - I am not going to discount them too bad for a loss at Iowa after being drained emotionally the week prior.
11. Michigan - this just seems weird
12. Rutgers - Schiano is definitely doing something there. Team is playing with passion, just wait until he gets more talent.
13. PSU - until they get the OL figured out, they will stay towards the bottom
14. Illinois - easy choice and possibly the easiest one
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OK, so they are playing this week.
Stick them in where I puked in my mouth, for now.
Thank you. I stuck your Badgers in at #5 and moved everybody below that down a spot.
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should everyone be ranked as if they were at full strength or as they are with COVID cases and opt outs?
I can say that Illinois is not as bad a squad at full strength and so on but we treat Illinois differently that other teams?
lack of knowledge as to who is out with COVID vs injury has been hard on each squad for depth and forced into starting roles
I honestly don't know and I think it varies case-by-case. For one thing, we usually say "on a neutral field tomorrow" so at least in theory if a star QB is out and will be out tomorrow, rank them without him. I don't know.
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1) Ohio State: this should really just be a power ranking of the remaining 12 or 13, depending on Wisconsin's health.
Competent:
2) Indiana: holy cow! How in tarnation is this possible. Wins, including two (tarnished) Helmets.
3) Northwestern: winning matters.
4) Purdue: ditto (wins don't look as *quality* as Northwestern's).
5) Iowa: two losses, but to teams ahead of it; pretty good whupping of Sparty.
...
[DQ]
6) Wisconsin: if this team returns to play, it should be ok, but depends a lot on the personnel available, and the Badgers will have to knock off a lot of rust in a hurry. This is as good a place holder position as any.
...
Incompentent:
7) Maryland: that was a quality win for the Big East division of the Big Ten.
8) Michigan: someone has to go here--at least it has a win.
9) Rutgers: HOW CAN THIS BE?!?!? Because it beat MSU, I suppose.
10) MSU: getting curb-stomped at Iowa kinda knocked the bloom off the rose, and reminded everyone about the loss to Rutgers.
11) Minnesota: has a win.
12) Penn State: worse than 0-3, this team was down 35-7 to Maryland. MARYLAND!!!!!!
13) Nebraska: fleeting signs of a pulse.
14) Illinois: ooph; this team sucks.
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Love this idea, but it's a little too noisy because of the lack of data points.
Any chance you're going to update this week to week?
I'll probably keep up with it.
I agree, very noisy with only three (and in some cases two) data-points but I've used this before near the end of the season and it works well then. It looks like Wisconsin IS playing this week so hopefully we'll have more data after Saturday and this will make more sense.
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I'll slot them in at 13 for now, since they could probably beat the Illini short handed.
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1) Ohio State: this should really just be a power ranking of the remaining 12 or 13, depending on Wisconsin's health.
Competent:
2) Indiana: holy cow! How in tarnation is this possible. Wins, including two (tarnished) Helmets.
3) Northwestern: winning matters.
4) Purdue: ditto (wins don't look as *quality* as Northwestern's).
5) Iowa: two losses, but to teams ahead of it; pretty good whupping of Sparty.
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[DQ]
6) Wisconsin: if this team returns to play, it should be ok, but depends a lot on the personnel available, and the Badgers will have to knock off a lot of rust in a hurry. This is as good a place holder position as any.
...
Incompentent:
7) Maryland: that was a quality win for the Big East division of the Big Ten.
8) Michigan: someone has to go here--at least it has a win.
9) Rutgers: HOW CAN THIS BE?!?!? Because it beat MSU, I suppose.
10) MSU: getting curb-stomped at Iowa kinda knocked the bloom off the rose, and reminded everyone about the loss to Rutgers.
11) Minnesota: has a win.
12) Penn State: worse than 0-3, this team was down 35-7 to Maryland. MARYLAND!!!!!!
13) Nebraska: fleeting signs of a pulse.
14) Illinois: ooph; this team sucks.
:57:
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I think part of this is that we never really decided on a "standard" power ranking concept here.
Power rankings IMHO should be "who would win on a neutral field?" rankings. Because it's not about record, it's not about anything that happened in past weeks, it's about who they are going forward. That doesn't mean past weeks don't matter, because they can tell us a lot about a team, but that if a fluke upset (say Purdue's 49-20 rout of OSU in 2018) aren't indicative of the relative strengths of the teams going forward, they shouldn't impact a power ranking.
And I think while power rankings may take injuries into account, in my mind a power ranking shouldn't really take in transient injuries.
For example, even going into last week I might have considered Clemson above Notre Dame in a "power ranking" even though I knew Trevor Lawrence was out that week [because all expectations were that it is transient], and now that he's back I don't see it as ridiculous to put Clemson above Notre Dame in a "power ranking" even though ND now has the H2H victory.
Now, if Trevor Lawrence had gone down with an ACL tear two weeks before the Notre Dame game, that probably changes. Because if you know he's out the whole season, the team simply isn't as good without him as it is with him.
So IMHO I don't really consider any of this COVID stuff to be important in a power ranking. COVID is basically a transient "injury" like the flu to most college-age athletes. It's not like Wisconsin or Illinois lost players for the season, or lost them in a way that we have any reasonable expectation they won't return at 100%.
So if I participated in these, I'd still have Wisconsin pretty high, regardless of COVID, because they're a good team. And I'd still have Illinois low, regardless of COVID, because even at full strength I think they'd suck.
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Yeah, I agree with you. I don't always take head to head results into account all that strongly when doing these rankings. There are upsets and fluky results that happen. I would have to move MD up based on the win over PSU, but if PSU gets right the next few weeks and MD falls apart, I'm not going to cling to that result for the whole season.
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Even so, I am inclined to rank a team that is willing to give it a go without any kickers higher than a team that cancels a game or two that they could have played.
It would have been easy to say "we can't beat these guys without our special teams intact, let's just cancel that game." and no one would have blamed them. But instead they rolled out what they had and gave it a go.
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Even so, I am inclined to rank a team that is willing to give it a go without any kickers higher than a team that cancels a game or two that they could have played.
It would have been easy to say "we can't beat these guys without our special teams intact, let's just cancel that game." and no one would have blamed them. But instead they rolled out what they had and gave it a go.
I assume you are referring to Wisconsin in this post.
IMHO, I don't believe they were trying to dodge playing a game without their best players as much as they were trying to avoid spreading the virus to others. I know that if they had been scheduled to play Ohio State and if I were Ryan Day, I would have seriously considered NOT playing that game for fear of losing MY best players for the next 3 weeks due to a Covid infection. I can imagine that Wisconsin did not want to be in a position to be blamed for spreading this virus around the league.
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Illinois fans are blaming Wisconsin for giving it to them.
After their losses, Nebraska and Purdue fans would be doing the same.
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My Week 3 leaning fully into the transitive property (because my eyes don't know what they are seeing) rankings
- OHIO STATE - class by themselves
- INDIANA - 9 windiana in a 9 game season?
- WISCONSIN - impossible to rank right now
- NORTHWESTERN - the only defense that has stopped the mighty Terps
- MARYLAND - what a difference two weeks makes
- PENN STATE - definitely the best 0-3 team in the country
- PURDUE - playing Northwestern this week in the "please get one more game canclled Bucky" Bowl
- IOWA - any truth to the rumor Kirk Ferentz tried to upload the game tape to PornHub?
- RUTGERS - nobody behind them seems even slightly inclined to jump them
- NEBRASKA - the Scott Frost offense, after that first quarter, continues to sputter, but maybe Northwestern's defense is that good
- MICHIGAN STATE - weird that continuously putting 6 men in the box again Iowa doesn't work
- MICHIGAN - at this point, if it just ends with a loss at Ohio State anyway, I'm not sure Michigan fans want Harbaugh to "fix this" to 6-3
- MINNESOTA - finally found an offense bad enough for their defense to stop
- ILLINOIS - they punted on 4th and goal
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Results posted, votes through @ELA (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=55) , 17 voters. Before compiling I took the adjustments by @847badgerfan (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=5) and @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) into account so that we are all ranking all 14 teams.
These results are weird. There is unanimous agreement that Ohio State is the best and Illinois the worst team in the league. After that the only things that more than half of us agree upon are that Indiana is second to Ohio State and the Northwestern is fourth. No other spot has more than eight out of 17 votes for one team.
Note that Michigan, Minnesota, Rutgers, Penn State, Nebraska, and Michigan State are all effectively tied for 8th through 13th place.
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Illinois fans are blaming Wisconsin for giving it to them.
After their losses, Nebraska and Purdue fans would be doing the same.
I'm blaming Wisconsin for UNL's loss to Northwestern
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Even so, I am inclined to rank a team that is willing to give it a go without any kickers higher than a team that cancels a game or two that they could have played.
It would have been easy to say "we can't beat these guys without our special teams intact, let's just cancel that game." and no one would have blamed them. But instead they rolled out what they had and gave it a go.
I disagree with you on two counts:
- You keep implying that UW cancelled games to "duck" opponents and/or avoid losses. I do NOT believe that. I think they are being cautious about the virus and I'll take Barry at his word.
- I think Ohio State is the best team in the league. As such, when I rank the rest, one thing I often ask myself is which team that I haven't ranked yet do I think is the biggest threat to Ohio State. I think the biggest threat to Ohio State is Wisconsin. You might not agree that they are the biggest, but by ranking them #13 you are (to my way of thinking) saying that UW would be the second easiest possible B1G opponent for our Buckeyes and that isn't just wrong it is flat out absurd.
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and thinking of a weekly rankings if you think Wisconsin was the biggest threat when they were not playing then you need to rethink- just saying
as stated, when Wisconsin returns to playing they will be judged and ranked on their on the field performance like everyone should be.
Barry is not stupid, he did not cancel the games to duck team(especially Nebraska)
each person has their own ranking criteria and such is why this is a fun thread - where did MCTwerps(sp) go he always made this thread interesting with his whacko criteria and system for ranking
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I disagree with you on two counts:
- You keep implying that UW cancelled games to "duck" opponents and/or avoid losses. I do NOT believe that. I think they are being cautious about the virus and I'll take Barry at his word.
- I think Ohio State is the best team in the league. As such, when I rank the rest, one thing I often ask myself is which team that I haven't ranked yet do I think is the biggest threat to Ohio State. I think the biggest threat to Ohio State is Wisconsin. You might not agree that they are the biggest, but by ranking them #13 you are (to my way of thinking) saying that UW would be the second easiest possible B1G opponent for our Buckeyes and that isn't just wrong it is flat out absurd.
There was a year when Maryland opened by stomping Texas. Initially we all ranked them high, but then their QBs began to drop like flies to the point where they were, as you put it, playing mascots and cheerleaders at the QB position. At that point we all started ranking them at or near the bottom of the ladder, regardless of the fact that they were one of the top teams when they were "at full strength."
So you will have to forgive me for being a little confused about when we are supposed to base our rankings on reality vs what they might be like in some parallel universe where they are "at full strength." I mean, they can't even play right now. I've never seen a team so thoroughly depleted into ineptitude. Ranking them ahead of illinois is merely a symbolic nod to the fact that they won the head to head, and to illustrate just how poorly the Illini have performed.
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There was a year when Maryland opened by stomping Texas. Initially we all ranked them high, but then their QBs began to drop like flies to the point where they were, as you put it, playing mascots and cheerleaders at the QB position. At that point we all started ranking them at or near the bottom of the ladder, regardless of the fact that they were one of the top teams when they were "at full strength."
So you will have to forgive me for being a little confused about when we are supposed to base our rankings on reality vs what they might be like in some parallel universe where they are "at full strength." I mean, they can't even play right now. I've never seen a team so thoroughly depleted into ineptitude. Ranking them ahead of illinois is merely a symbolic nod to the fact that they won the head to head, and to illustrate just how poorly the Illini have performed.
I said it earlier, but there's a difference between losing players for a season and having a temporary blip from COVID.
Let's say you were doing an NFL power ranking right now. The Steelers are 8-0. It was just reported today that Big Ben is on the reserve/COVID list. Whereas last year he was out for the season due to injury.
You have two scenarios:
- Big Ben is on the reserve/COVID list and potentially could miss this weekend's game, but unlikely to miss beyond that.
- Big Ben had a season-ending injury and Mason Rudolph is the guy going forward.
I'd venture to say that in scenario 1, you should not change your power ranking of the Steelers at all, even if it means they're a lot more likely to lose THIS weekend's game. In scenario 2, you drop them significantly in a power ranking because despite being 8-0, the makeup of the roster has changed. In scenario 1, if COVID ends up hospitalizing Big Ben and putting him on a ventilator, of course, it becomes scenario 2 very quickly.
"Full strength" to me means that if a player is expected to return shortly, you count him as part of full strength. If a player is not expected to return shortly, i.e. Jack Coan, you don't include him in your full strength calculation.
These players with COVID are coming back, and soon. All expectation will be that after the Michigan game, they will be at legitimate full strength.
I'd probably dock them a few spots in a power ranking because with the distraction of COVID and with missing several weeks of game reps, I think their "full strength" isn't as good as it would be if they had two extra games to find their groove. But if I was ranking them today, I'd be ranking them as if all the COVID players were healthy at the least.
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I suspect that the infected players have been held out of practice in order to avoid contaminating the healthy players. If so, then they will have missed a lot more than a few weeks worth of game reps. Maybe they studied a helluva lot of film, but even so it will take a few games to get back into tip top game shape.
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I suspect that the infected players have been held out of practice in order to avoid contaminating the healthy players. If so, then they will have missed a lot more than a few weeks worth of game reps. Maybe they studied a helluva lot of film, but even so it will take a few games to get back into tip top game shape.
Exactly. I could completely justify dropping them a few spots because of the missed time and what that will do to them on the field.
But 13th? Nah. They're still Wisconsin.
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I've always interpreted this as "rank as you see fit", if that means results, if that means eye test, if that means whatever metrics you choose. Just don't get offended if someone questions you. Be able/willing to defend it.
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The only thing I can add is that I don’t see any team that is unbeatable or even close to it and that includes the buckeyes. I would say the same thing nationally.
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ESPN Power Rankings
- Ohio State
- Wisconsin
- Indiana
- Northwestern
- Purdue
- Iowa
- Maryland
- Michigan State
- Michigan
- Minnesota
- Penn State
- Rutgers
- Nebraska
- Illinois
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1. OSU
2. Indiana
3. Wisc
4. NW
5. Iowa
6. Maryland
7. Purdue
8. MSU
9. Michigan
10. Minn
11. PSU
12. Rutgers
13. Ill
14. Nebraska
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ESPN sucks, so........
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We have unanimous agreement about Ohio State and Illinois.
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@bwarbiany (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=19) :
The comparison to how other teams did against your opponents thing will have more data after this week, but it will get screwy due to the varying number of opponents each team will have played.
Barring further cancelations, I think that after this weekend the teams will have played:
- Four opponents: IU, MSU, M, RU, PSU, NU, IA, MN, IL
- Three opponents: tOSU, UMD, UNL, PU
- Two opponents: UW
For now my plan is to use:
- A 1-4 ranking for the opponents of the nine teams that will have played four opponents each.
- A 1.5, 2.5, 3.5 ranking for the opponents of the four teams that will have played three opponents each
- A 2, 3 ranking for Wisconsin's two opponents.
Does that seem statistically sound to you?
My math:
For opponents of the teams that will have played three opponents:
- If you are the best (like PSU against tOSU) that is good, but you aren't better than three other teams like the best against the four-opponent schools, only three. Had that team played four opponents you would be either first or second so I took the average, 1.5.
- If you are the worst (like UNL against tOSU) that is bad, but you aren't worse than three other teams like the worst against the four-opponent schools, only three. Had that team played four opponents you would be either third or fourth so I took the average, 3.5.
- If you are in the middle at #2 then if that team had played three opponents you would be either second or third so I took the average, 2.5.
For Wisconsin's two opponents (Illinois and Michigan):
- Whichever of the two is the best would be either first, second, or third if Wisconsin had played four opponents so I took the average, 2.
- Whichever of the two is the worst would be either second, third, or fourth if Wisconsin had played four opponents so I took the average, 3.
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Does that seem statistically sound to you?
I'd just rank it straight up and let it be.
For the three-game teams, it's not even that different. Which leaves Wisconsin as the only outlier...
Wisconsin is currently the best of the three teams that has played Illinois, and that is likely to extend since the Illini face Rutgers next, so that would be a "1". Wisconsin is unlikely to be worse than third against Michigan (I don't expect them to be blown out by 25 like the Gophers), but with style of play, rust, and still having players out, it's a tall order for them to beat Michigan by more than IU did, so unlikely they'll get a "1" there. Even if they did, that'll be what, "tied" for first place with Ohio State and you'd give the tie to the team with more games played IMHO.
So Wisconsin will probably either average out to 1.5 or 2, which considering that most of us think they're the best team in the West "at full strength", wouldn't be that far away from reality.
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I know this does not address Medina's concerns, but I am discounting Wisconsin in the polling, and see a few others are, as well, until they actually play games. Wisconsin's practices are not at full strength. I have to think the timing on offense will be affected, and conditioning will be affected when Wisconsin restarts. We will see, but I suspect it will take a few weeks to get back to full strength.
By the time of Wisconsin's season finale, I will probably feel sorry for Iowa.