CFB51 College Football Fan Community
The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 31, 2020, 10:34:19 PM
-
Link to last week's rankings (https://www.cfb51.com/big-ten/b1g-power-rankings-week-1-18067/)
Votes through @Brutus Buckeye (https://www.cfb51.com/index.php?action=profile;u=31) , 14 voters:
(https://i.imgur.com/SzuPXjl.png)
Drop the high and low:
(https://i.imgur.com/d7pzg3H.png)
Chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/okewpU7.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/BbrqIuG.jpg)
Change so far this year (ie, the COTY chart):
(https://i.imgur.com/zkHJUB0.jpg)
Schedule/performance chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/8vq1TCh.png)
-
Not sure after that.
-
Pass
-
Ohio State
Indiana
holy crap now what
-
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Northwestern
4. Purdue
5. Wisconsin
6. Rutgers
7. Michigan State
8. Michigan
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Penn State
12. Iowa
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
-
1. Ohio State: Not a complete ass kicking of Penn State, but close enough. Answered a couple questions, too. Master Teague had over 1000 yards rushing, and the defensive line just crushed it up front. They did let up a few plays on the back end, notably to Jahan Dotson. They also looked a little lost defending RPO's. Still, much better that than having no pass rush or not being able to run the ball.
2. Wisconsin: In COVID timeout, but we still remember them being good against Illinois.
3. Penn State: Man it's getting rough out here. I had them above Indiana last week, and they weren't particularly competitive against OSU. And they are 0-2. But I'm not sold on the Hoosiers or anyone else in the B1G this year, so here we are. Found something in Jahan Dotson - expect them to go to him a lot this year.
4. Michigan: Man I guess. The defense was unexpectedly bad against MSU, giving up 449 yards, and had all sorts of trouble defending on the back end. The offense wasn't bad, and they moved the ball. Keeping them here mostly based on talent and the fact that Don Brown usually gets the defense worked out.
5. Indiana: The Windiana train keeps on rolling. 2-0 and first place in the B1G. But man, they don't look right. Less than 350 yards of offense against Rutgers, after looking uninspiring on offense last week too.
6. Northwestern: First place in the West. Won a total rock fight against Iowa despite down 17-0. Not a terrible chance they win the West, either. Their defense is legit and if they hadn't been so horrid last year scoring I would probably move them up.
7. Purdue: Also in first place in the West. Didn't see any of their game but not exactly inspiring that they were outgained by the Illini - who were missing their quarterback. Still, undefeated is undefeated.
8. Iowa: Poor dang Iowa.
9. Michigan State: Heck of a win, enough to get out of the dumps of the conference. Still, they look kind of limited and I'm not sure they chuck it and hope offense will work against everyone else. But at least they look capable of getting a few wins.
10. Nebraska: COVID timeout, not their fault edition
11. Rutgers: Hey, why not. Gave the Hoosiers a fight at least.
12. Maryland: Shocking display of offense
13. Illinois: Somewhat competent looking
14. Minnesota: Pretty sure a few guys from this board could field a better defense
-
Right now my attitude is not to over react to early games that may end up looking like fluke wins and losses in the long run. Truth is I have no idea who is a good team yet. I am going to give it another week before I do a big shuffle.
1. OSU
2. Wisc
3. PSU
4. Mich
5. Indy
6. NW
7. Pur
8. Iowa
9. Rut
10. MSU
11. Minn
12. Neb
13. ILL
14. MD
-
OSU- still on top and have the most to lose if COVID hits their team. also has the most depth to handle a COVID outbreak
Purdue- they are sneaky tough and will put up points
Indiana- will be a tough out barring health
Northwestern-Pat has them rolling and look to have the best practices for COVID (smart)
PSU- two loses to teams above them
Nebraska- cant fault them for wanting to play and held close to OSU
Rutgers- sparky bunch of guys heading in right direction
Wisconsin- great if they hadn't got COVID but they did so rest of year is unknown
MSU- beat a Michigan team that only beat a hapless Gopher team
Michigan- tough not to be able to beat MSU or OSU if you are Michigan
Iowa- they will get right the next two weeks
Maryland- taking the worst defensive team to OT is not much to get excited for
Illinois- playing short for COVID showed a lot of class
Minnesota- razor thin depth gets depleted with Opt outs and COVID hitting ST is one thing but that defense is not even close to a big ten caliber- lets hope they get some luck form the 14th 2020 curse
-
1 Ohio St
2 Wisconsin
3 Penn St
4 Indiana
5 Northwestern
6 Purdue
7 Michigan St
8 Rutgers
9 Michigan
10 Nebraska
11 Iowa
12 Maryland
13 Minnesota
14 Illinois
what a mess
_____________________
edit - Gophers added
-
1 Ohio St
2 Wisconsin
3 Penn St
4 Indiana
5 Northwestern
6 Purdue
7 Michigan St
9 Rutgers
10 Michigan
11 Nebraska
12 Iowa
13 Maryland
14 Illinois
what a mess
I assume your #8 is NOT Minnesota. At least I hope not. They are 14 on my list now, which is below:
1. Ohio State
2. Indiana
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Wisconsin
6. Purdue
7. Iowa
8. Rutgers
9. Michigan State
10. Michigan
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Minnesota
-
1. Ohio State - Defensive Line looking more like I expected
2. Wisconsin - But when will they play again?
3. Penn State - Yes, 0-2, but these are power rankings and they should beat every team below them if they played this week.
4. Michigan - I'm willing to overlook a young team losing a rivalry game. I think they'll bounce back and beat...
5. Indiana - Having a great season, but I don't think they are really a top 15 team.
6. Northwestern - Ramsey makes a huge difference for this team. I would say if Wisconsin can't get the required 6 games, this is the West favorite.
7. Purdue - Solid 2-0, but still want to see a little more before moving them up.
8. Michigan State - Solid team when they take care of the football.
9. Iowa - 2 closes losses. They are good enough to give the top teams a scary game.
10. Minnesota - Awful, awful performance, but I expect they'll get right after playing Illinois. Too much talent to be much lower than this.
11. Nebraska - Gave the Buckeyes more problems in some areas than PSU did. Need more games to really judge this team.
12. Rutgers - I fear that they are just about the normal Rutgers that fed on 7 turnovers against MSU.
13. Maryland - Yeah, nice win but I'm not expecting much the rest of the year.
14. Illinois - They seem to be clearly the worst team.
-
I assume your #8 is NOT Minnesota. At least I hope not. They are 14 on my list now, which is below:
dern it
gollderned mess
-
1. Ohio State - Looked good. However, was probably not one of Wade's better games. He will need to step it up if they are going to make a run.
2. Wisconsin - Can't penalize them for Covid. I still believe they would be anyone below them on a neutral field.
.
.
3. Penn State - They didn't quit in this game. They have some talent and stand of a good chance of winning out. If not, I will have to move them down.
4. Northwestern - They put themselves in a hole with the turnovers but battled back against a good Iowa def to win.
5. Indiana - They're 2-0, but honestly not sure they are any better than anyone below them. Putting here for now.
6. Purdue - A win is a win. Once again, I didn't see the game (saw quite a few highlights).
7. Michigan State - Nice recovery from week 1. Took advantage of what was there on offense. Played good enough on defense to stop what Mich tried to do.
8. Michigan - With a better coach, this team is ranked higher. I don't know what is going on in Ann Arbor, but Harb's seems to be lost.
9. Nebraska - Need to see more of them. I think they will be in most of their games and should pull a few out.
10. Iowa - Not sold on their offense. Defense is playing pretty, just need some offense to go with it.
.
.
11. Rutgers - Played well against IU. Still showing life.
12. Maryland - Not sure if the Terps are better than expected or Minn is just that bad. Thinking the latter.
13. Illinois - Not sure they could beat anyone above them. However, had to play with a backup QB and held their own. Time will tell.
14. Minnesota - Did they forget they're allowed to play defense?
-
1) Ohio State: because Ohio State.
...
Who the heck knows!?!
Feel like I have to work from the bottom on this:
14) Minnesota: lost to Maryland, and it turns out getting smoked by Michigan may have been worse than we thought.
13) Illinois: two games, two losses, and Purdue pretty well kicked it around, as did Wisconsin.
12) Rutgers: I know, it beat MSU, and Indiana is ranked and all, but one shouldn't get throttled by the Hooisers. It just isn't done.
11) Maryland: because if Minnesota is actually the worst team in the league, taking it to OT for the win doesn't move you up that far.
10) Nebraska: bye
9) Wisconsin: DQ'd, and with more than a quarter of the scholarship athletes (including all(?) of the quarterbacks) and half of the coaches quarantined, how can this team be ranked higher?
8) Iowa: I'm still not convinced Purdue is that good.
7) Michigan? This feels really, really off. But it doesn't look like Minnesota is any good, and last week MSU lost to Rutgers. Rutgers!! Rivalry, blah, blah, blah--this doesn't look good...or right.
6) Michigan State: beating Michigan can't erase losing to Rutgers.
5) Purdue: 2-0 is 2-0.
4) Northwestern: ditto, but is Iowa any good (pretty sure Maryland isn't)?
3) Indiana: 2-0 with one win that looks pretty good.
2) Penn State: at 0-2!?! That's insane. Yeah, but I though PSU was better than Indiana last week (in the sense of if they play each other ten times, I think PSU does better than breaking even), and losing to Ohio State in a somewhat competitive manner doesn't mean PSU sucks, it means OSU is better than everyone else, and not by just a little.
I feel like this is the 2020 of power rankings.
-
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Northwestern
4. Penn State
5. Indiana
6. Michigan
7. Purdue
8. Iowa
9. Maryland
10. Rutgers
11. Michigan State
12. Nebraska
13. Illinois
14. Minnesota
-
- Ohio State - At least until Wisconsin returns this isn't even debatable.
- Wisconsin - Obviously I'm ranking the Badgers based on what I *THINK* they are at full strength.
- Penn State - It feels weird to move a team UP after a 13 point loss that didn't even feel that close but below this it gets tricky fast.
- Northwestern - Their blowout of the Terps looks a lot better after Maryland beat Minnesota and maybe the Purple will be back in the CG again?
- Michigan - That was ugly but I don't think they are THAT bad.
- Indiana - 2-0 is great but this is not a very impressive 2-0.
- Purdue - Unimpressively 2-0 just like their instate rival.
- Iowa - Maybe Northwestern is that good?
- Michigan State - As good as that win over Michigan looked, this team still lost to Rutgers.
- Nebraska - Not losing is better than the rest even if it was probably only because the game got cancelled.
- Minnesota - Yes, they just lost to #11 Maryland but it was on the road in OT.
- Maryland - Maybe getting blown out by Northwestern wasn't actually all that bad?
- Rutgers - I just don't think they are very good.
- Illinois - Possibly worse than Rutgers.
-
It's an interesting question how much to factor in road vs. home this season. Travel time still matters, and staying in hotels, etc. And traveling to Maryland from Minnesota is as long as it gets in this conference, yes?
But no crowds influencing things is less of an impact. It's 57,600 square feet of artificial turf anyway you look at it (ok, except MSU, Purdue, Penn State, and Northwestern, were it's grass).
A study on this would be an interesting thing. Is it the environment, or the travel, or (probably more likely) how much of each is it?
-
I'll go with this.
1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Indiana
4. Penn State
5. Northwestern
6. Michigan State
7. Purdue
8. Michigan
9. Nebraska
10. Maryland
11. Iowa
12. Rutgers
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
-
1. Ohio St
2. Indiana
3. Northwestern
4. Wisconsin
5. Michigan
6. Penn St
7. Purdue
8. Rutgers
9. Migraine St
10. Iowa
11. Maryland
12. Nebraska
13. Minnesota
14. Illinois
If you cannot control the virus on your team it is a major setback. If your team is unable to control the virus your team is out of action for two or three weeks. With 22 positives at Wisconsin I do not see how they play Purdue this weekend. I don't see how Purdue would agree to play Wisconsin. If the entire team takes the wicked up the nostril test, and use player-coaches, and Barry is acting head coach, well maybe. I am downgrading Wisconsin in this week's poll.
The Big Ten is unimpressive.
-
1) Ohio State
2-14) I honestly don't know
-
If you cannot control the virus on your team it is a major setback. If your team is unable to control the virus your team is out of action for two or three weeks. With 22 positives at Wisconsin I do not see how they play Purdue this weekend. I don't see how Purdue would agree to play Wisconsin. If the entire team takes the wicked up the nostril test, and use player-coaches, and Barry is acting head coach, well maybe. I am downgrading Wisconsin in this week's poll.
The Big Ten is unimpressive.
Wisconsin has 12 players positive, and 10 coaches. All are in isolation, and no symptoms. The coaches can return to work tomorrow, with a negative test.
The players cannot, regardless.
The rest of the players are isolated in their own rooms, at a hotel in Madison. They are not allowed out of their rooms. Food is delivered.
Sounds like they have it under control. No word on tracing though.
No word yet on playing Purdue yet. Decision day is today, and then they continue to monitor.
-
Wisconsin has 12 players positive, and 10 coaches. All are in isolation, and no symptoms. The coaches can return to work tomorrow, with a negative test.
The players cannot, regardless.
The rest of the players are isolated in their own rooms, at a hotel in Madison. They are not allowed out of their rooms. Food is delivered.
Sounds like they have it under control. No word on tracing though.
No word yet on playing Purdue yet. Decision day is today, and then they continue to monitor.
Thanks for the update. Which 12-players are out? I thought it was largely QBs and WRs, do you know if this is so? It is tough to play with 12-players out. It is hard to contain once it gets started.
-
QB1 and QB2 out for sure. Not sure on QB3, but you'd have to think with the HC, OC, QB Coach and others, it hit the QB room hardest. So, a RB may be playing QB this weekend. He was a HS QB at least, and is a senior. He knows the playbook.
Could be really interesting.
I'd say no chance PU wins in Madison if UW was full strength. None.
I give them a very good chance now.
-
Should know by today whether the Badgers play this weekend. Signs are maybe they will, but the number of positive players is up over 20. That's going to be tough.
-
Let's hope that the Badgers are able to play this weekend and that they have at least 1 QB ready to go. While I have no rooting interest in either team, I just know how I would feel if I had been practicing that long to not be able to play.
-
Should know by today whether the Badgers play this weekend. Signs are maybe they will, but the number of positive players is up over 20. That's going to be tough.
20 players positive would seem to be more than what the 7% threshold would allow for practice or a game.
-
(https://i.imgur.com/4ZPaTxN.png)
-
thanks for the update
-
It's too bad, but at least they had the good sense to cancel.
-
Sorry, I was out of town, so feel free to omit mine if I missed the deadline.
1 Ohio State - duh.
2 Northwestern - biggest, baddest thing going on in the B1G West right now.
3 Indiana - first place in the B1G East.
4 Penn State - winless, but atop the scrap heap.
5 Purdue - primary challenger for Northwestern out west.
6 Iowa - lost two games by a total of five points.
7 Rutgers - Sparty win is looking a lot better now.
8 Michigan tate - statement win against the Wolverines.
9 Michigan - lost to a team that Rutgers beat by double digits.
10 Nebraska - not that we've had much to go off of.
11 Illinois - they are not good.
12 Maryland - got an unexpected W.
13 Minnesota - wooooo weeeee! were they over rated or what.
*I omitted Wisconsin because they can't/won't even field a team right now. So that would make them my "14" by default.
-
*I omitted Wisconsin because they can't/won't even field a team right now. So that would make them my "14" by default.
This is one of the reasons that I drop the high and low vote.
-
Would they beat Minnesota today on a neutral field?
No, they wouldn't be willing/able to play the game.
-
Would they beat Minnesota today on a neutral field?
No, they wouldn't be willing/able to play the game.
I get that, but Wisconsin's ranking is weird right now. There are 14 voters, here are the votes for Wisiconsin:
- 8 votes for #2
- 1 vote for #4
- 2 votes for #5
- 1 vote for #8
- 1 vote for #9
- 1 vote (yours) for #14
The problem in compiling this is that I see these votes as apples and oranges. Obviously those of us (myself included) who voted them #2 are basing that vote on what we think Wisconsin is or will be at full strength.
Your vote has nothing to do with Wisconsin at full strength. You stated that you based it on their inability to play right now. The votes at #4 and #5 could be either and I would assume that the votes at #8 and #9 are some hybrid of the two.
As I said, apples and oranges.
-
Fair enough.
If they start playing again, then I'll move them up.
I will probably treat their cancelled games as if they were ties though, since they could have played but didn't.
-
I posted results.
Things are weird. For one thing there is the issue of what to do with Wisconsin (discussed above). That is part of the reason for a big logjam at #2. Right now Wisconsin, Indiana, and Penn State are all exactly tied for 2nd, 3rd, and 4th place with Northwestern just barely behind in 5th. Effectively we have a four-way tie for 2nd through 5th.
Purdue is just behind that in sixth place and they are now guaranteed to remain undefeated for another week because their game with Wisconsin this weekend has been cancelled. Next weekend they'll face Northwestern in what could be a battle of the Division's top two eligible teams.
Then we have the two Michigan schools. What to do with them? They both have one great looking performance and one horrible looking performance. Michigan looked like a serious contender against Minnesota in their opener but then Minnesota looked awful against Maryland and after that Michigan looked dreadful against the Spartans. Speaking of the Spartans, they looked hopelessly lost in their opener against Rutgers then turned around and beat the Wolverines in Ann Arbor.
Iowa is next and they are hard to rank as well. They are 0-2 which is obviously never a good thing but their opponents are a combined 4-0 and they are oh-so-close to 2-0.
Next is Rutgers who looked great in their opener against MSU then looked like Rutgers again against Indiana.
Nebraska is next and we only have one data-point for the Cornhuskers because their week-2 game against Wisconsin got cancelled. They lost pretty badly to Ohio State but at this point that doesn't disqualify a team from potentially being #2 behind the Buckeyes and, to Nebraska's credit, they were competitive for a while.
Next is Maryland who looked woefully inept against Northwestern then turned around and beat a team that finished in the AP top-10 last year.
The last two are a pair of 0-2 teams (IL and MN) who play each other this weekend.
-
Would they beat Minnesota today on a neutral field?
No, they wouldn't be willing/able to play the game.
In my opinion, the above doesn't mesh with the below:
If they start playing again, then I'll move them up. I will probably treat their cancelled games as if they were ties though, since they could have played but didn't.
The former statement suggests that you view a "Power Ranking" as a list of who would win on a neutral field. I agree with this assessment.
The latter statement suggests that you are putting in some kind of "who deserves it" component.
IMHO, a Power Ranking has nothing to do with who deserves what.
-
I feel like they would have lost those games short handed, and by cancelling the games they are essentially admitting as much. Had the Big Ten held them out then I would treat them as cancelled games. But I feel like they need to be dinged for ducking losses.
-
I feel like they would have lost those games short handed, and by cancelling the games they are essentially admitting as much. Had the Big Ten held them out then I would treat them as cancelled games. But I feel like they need to be dinged for ducking losses.
If they would have played and lost short-handed and I honestly believed that they would have won at full strength, then once they got back to full strength, I'd rank them based on that and ignore the short-handed loss.
I think a Power Ranking is what you described in your statement above, "who would win on a neutral field". "Deserved" has nothing to do with it.
Agree to disagree.
-
I just feel like a "power" team would have a "next man up" mentality, where they want to play anyone anywhere, and they would only be stopped from playing by some higher entity; the league office or the NCAA or whatever else.
Ducking games that you are unlikely to win is the antithesis of the mentality that I would associate with what I consider to be a strong "power" team.
I am willing to treat them as ties instead of losses, but I am not going to reward them for exploiting a loophole.
-
They are not ducking anything. They are being extremely careful.
-
It's a complicated situation.
Counting the games as ties is the best way to represent both truths; that they would have won the game at full strength, and that they would have lost those games short handed.
I don't buy that the only reality that we should take into account is what would happen if they were at full strength. Had the game actually been played, they wouldn't have been full strenth. They would have been short handed. We don't pretend that teams have all their injured players available when we do these. We didn't spend 2014 ranking OSU as though Braxton Miller was healthy. We accepted the reality of their situation and ranked them accordingly.
At any rate, all of this is moot if they are actually going to scrap the rest of the season. In that case, I'm just not going to include them at all.
-
No word on that yet, but based on PC's press conference yesterday, it would appear they are trying to get back.
-
Well that's good.
I think we sometimes get too wrapped up in the "sabermetrics" of CFB. Take the Penn State-Indiana example. Even though Indiana won the head to head match up, Penn St is still widely accepted as the better team because they have better stats and more starz. What they are missing, imo, is that they also have a HC whose weakness is a strong propensity to "beef it" down the stretch of close games with bad calls and poor clock management. Which is exactly what happened here. So if they play the game ten times, does Penn State win 7? I dunno. It looks that way on paper. But how many times is James Franklin gonna to James Franklin?
Take Michigan. They have a strong D, and they can play man ball, and they consistently pummel the teams that they are supposed to beat. But their HC has established a record of suckage in rivalry games and bowl games. It is a mistake to not factor such things in, imo.
With Wisconsin, they already get to play in the B1G West, where they are usually way better than everyone else. Yet they rarely challenge themselves out of conference, loading up on creampuffs, and they gripe if draw anyone tougher than Indiana on the Crossover slate. So they have an established history of bullying the little sisters of the poor while shying away from any unnecesary challenges. Now all of a sudden they are in the unusual position of being challenged by the Nebraskas and Purdues of the B1G West because they are short handed at key positions, and then they cancell the games? Are they being over cautious because of Covid? Or does "playing the Covid card" pave the way for a diabolical scheme where they "can't lose if they don't play"? It was mentioned upthread that Fitz wouldn't duck Wisconsin in order to increase their chances of winning the B1G West, and I believe that's true. King Berry, on the other hand, I could totally see doing that.
Now if they get back at it and play the Wolverines, win or lose, I will eat my words. That is by far the most daunting game left on their slate. If they play the Wolverines, full strength or not, then it completely blows my theory out of the water. But if they instead conveniently come back the following week, or if they cancel the season altogether and celebrate going undefeated and untied at 1-0, well....
-
ND was on the schedule this year, and the virus nixed that. I thought Appy State would have been a good game. Maybe not. ND is on for next year too, along with Army and EMU.
-
This is a tough year to judge. Many teams are sorely missing their OOC games (ahem Iowa). How do you place a team that has COVID issues? Take Wisconsin, I am not sure the count now but it was 20 something (?) positives and some are voting them as if they were able to field an entire team yet others are saying that since they are not playing move them down. There is no right or wrong way on these since it is based on opinion but I would look at COVID as an injury. How would you rank them if you replaced COVID with an ACL injury? If Wisconsin was able to field a team but Mertz was out with a knee injury, would you rank them differently? Personally, I haven't seen enough games this year to base an opinion other than tOSU at the top.
Edit: also how do place any emphasis on home field. Since the crowds aren't there is it really an advantage?
-
This is a tough year to judge. Many teams are sorely missing their OOC games (ahem Iowa). How do you place a team that has COVID issues? Take Wisconsin, I am not sure the count now but it was 20 something (?) positives and some are voting them as if they were able to field an entire team yet others are saying that since they are not playing move them down. There is no right or wrong way on these since it is based on opinion but I would look at COVID as an injury. How would you rank them if you replaced COVID with an ACL injury? If Wisconsin was able to field a team but Mertz was out with a knee injury, would you rank them differently? Personally, I haven't seen enough games this year to base an opinion other than tOSU at the top.
Edit: also how do place any emphasis on home field. Since the crowds aren't there is it really an advantage?
Not having to travel is an advantage, for sure.
-
I agree but I don't think it's as significant as a full crowd.