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The Power Five => Big Ten => Topic started by: medinabuckeye1 on October 08, 2020, 11:25:20 AM

Title: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 08, 2020, 11:25:20 AM
Well, it looks like there will be a season after all.  Thus, we need to do our usual B1G Power Rankings! 

Results through me (12 voters):
(https://i.imgur.com/MKjbKBX.png)
Drop the high and low for each team:
(https://i.imgur.com/f6MhQ9r.png)
Chart:
(https://i.imgur.com/FOd1a3V.jpg)
Vote distribution:
(https://i.imgur.com/V8605Jg.jpg)
Here is the chart from last year:
(https://i.imgur.com/0eliMxY.jpg)
Ohio State and Michigan started out roughly tied for #1 followed by a big gap then PSU, MSU, UW, and Iowa.  Starting in week #2 Ohio State held a slight lead over #2 UW up until they played.  After that the Buckeyes were pretty much alone in first place through the end of the year.  Rutgers was a near-unanimous #14 all year long. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 11:28:25 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Minnesota
4. Michigan
5. Wisconsin
6. Indiana
7. Iowa
8. Northwestern
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Illinois
12. Maryland
13. Nebraska
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 08, 2020, 11:41:01 AM
1 Ohio St
2 Penn St
3 Wisconsin 
4 Michigan 
5 Minnesota 
6 Iowa 
7 Indiana 
8 Northwestern 
9 Nebraska 
10 Purdue 
11 Michigan St 
12 Illinois 
13 Maryland 
14 Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 08, 2020, 11:51:45 AM

13. Nebraska
I sure as heck hope this is the year the Huskers prove you wrong

but, you've been right every derned year
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 08, 2020, 12:07:30 PM
I just don't think there are enough bodies in Lincoln yet.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: ELA on October 08, 2020, 12:27:29 PM
Taken straight from my countdown



Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: NorthernOhioBuckeye on October 09, 2020, 07:58:52 AM
1. Ohio St
2. Penn St
3. Wisconsin 
4. Minnesota 
5. Michigan 
6. Iowa 
7. Indiana 
8. Northwestern 
9. Nebraska 
10. Purdue 
11. Michigan St 
12. Illinois 
13. Maryland 
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2020, 08:40:12 AM
I just don't think there are enough bodies in Lincoln yet.
we'll see what the NCAA does with scholarship limits next year, but this crazy season may help Frost upgrade his roster
he stated this week that he welcomes back any senior that wants to return
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 11:05:05 AM
Let's see if his AD welcomes that additional $300K/year cost for each of them.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Benthere2 on October 09, 2020, 11:17:40 AM
1. OSU- when playing king of the hill you are there until you get knocked off
2. Wisconsin- similar to above until proven wrong
3. PSU 
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Purdue
8. Indiana
9. MSU
10. Northwestern
11. Maryland
12. Nebraska
13. Illinois
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 09, 2020, 11:47:00 AM
1. OSU- when playing king of the hill you are there until you get knocked off
2. Wisconsin- similar to above until proven wrong
I kinda look at this the same way.  

Back in 2004 Michigan and Iowa shared the Big11Ten Championship.  In the fifteen years since Ohio State has nine league titles while UW, MSU, and PSU have three each*.  The other ten schools in the league (M, MN, IL, IA, NU, PU, IU, UNL, UMD, RU) have none.  

In the nine years that we have had a B1GCG, one third of them have been tOSU vs UW.  Only one of the nine involved neither tOSU nor UW (2015's MSU over IA game).  The other eight were:


B1GCG appearances - wins - losses:

Interesting that PSU is the lone B1G school to have made at least one appearance and never lost.  

I find it difficult to start my rankings with anything other than:



*That adds up to 18 titles in 15 years because up until 2011 it was possible to have co-champions.  tOSU and PSU shared titles in 2005 and 2008 while UW and MSU shared it in 2010.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 09, 2020, 03:18:34 PM
UW needs to get on the winning side of things soon.

Notice since Urbs and Frankie entered the league, they have not won one (except 2012 when OSU and Urbs were not allowed to go).
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 09, 2020, 10:25:01 PM
Let's see if his AD welcomes that additional $300K/year cost for each of them.
the AD has money
and the support
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 10, 2020, 12:47:08 AM
Looks like everyone's usual preseason rankings, only with Minnesota moved way up, and the Michigan St/Nebraska combo moved way down. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: MaximumSam on October 10, 2020, 12:50:33 PM
1. Ohio State: Pretty solid top to bottom
2. Wisconsin: I was pretty impressed with them in my rankings.  Their defense is going to be nasty, question is what the offense looks like.  They are normally pretty reliable there.
3. Penn State: Return plenty of talent, but putting in a new offense. They always seem kind of difficult to project.
4. Michigan: Another tough team to rank.  They are solid to strong under Harbaugh.  The defense will be good.  But losing perhaps their top guy one offense and defense to COVID would seem to be an issue.  
5. Minnesota: Lost a lot on defense, but getting Bateman back is huge.
6. Indiana: Hoosiers return a lot, everywhere.  Biggest loss is their offensive coordinator, which isn't nothing.
7. Iowa: Always a solid outfit, but difficult to have faith they will be really good.  But they definitely won't be bad.
8. Northwestern: If they can get their offense to not be DOA, should have a rebound season
9. Nebraska: I was pretty low on them in my rankings, but I have a hard time thinking year 3 under Frost will be a disaster
10. Purdue: Hey, they should be able to score
11. MSU: Your guess is as good as mine
12. Illinois: I just have no faith in this program
13. Rutgers: The Schianos get off the mat
14. Maryland: I really have no faith in this program
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: TyphonInc on October 11, 2020, 11:22:07 PM

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Temp430 on October 12, 2020, 07:56:41 AM
1. Ohio St
2. Penn St
3. Wisconsin
4. Minnesota
5. Michigan
6. Iowa
7. Indiana
8. Northwestern
9. Nebraska
10. Purdue
11. Michigan St
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers

This looks about right.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: LetsGoPeay on October 12, 2020, 09:14:34 AM
1. Ohio State
2. Penn State
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Minnesota
6. Iowa
7. Indiana 
8. Northwestern
9. Michigan State
10. Purdue
11. Nebraska
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 15, 2020, 10:47:41 AM
This excellent writer posted this today as far as predictions and I will share it because I was already thinking this:


RAMZY: BEWARE THE WOLVERINES

Michigan is going to be a legitimate pain in the ass this season because it has finally been knocked far enough off of the arrogance perch that has kept its self-defeating culture weaponized for the better part of the millennium. No one is going out of their way to overrate them in 2020. COVID has humbled everyone to a degree, which only benefits the B1G program in most need of humbling, And there’s no anointed savior on the roster; just a bunch of guys accustomed to winning the least when it matters the most.

They remind me of Brian Griese’s 1997 Wolverines, minus - and it’s a sizable minus - Charles Woodson. They’ll give everyone their best shot and for the first time in forever, should lack that entitlement chip that’s predictably and consistently knocked them back to earth.




Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 10:51:34 AM



They remind me of Brian Griese’s 1997 Wolverines, minus - and it’s a sizable minus - Charles Woodson. They’ll give everyone their best shot and for the first time in forever, should lack that entitlement chip that’s predictably and consistently knocked them back to earth.






I'm guessing the chip is still there
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 10:53:23 AM
1 Ohio St
2 Penn St
3 Wisconsin
4 Minnesota 
5 Michigan
6 Iowa
7 Indiana
8 Michigan St
9 Northwestern
10 Nebraska
11 Purdue 
12 Illinois
13 Maryland
14 Rutgers
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 15, 2020, 12:20:41 PM
Usually there is some team that 65% of us rank ahead of OSU for the first 3-6 weeks or so.
As such I am a little surprised to not see such a team emerge this year.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 12:21:31 PM
so, you're not sandbagging this year?
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 15, 2020, 03:50:07 PM
I figured that at least a few posters would go all in on the Gophers, and that a Wolverine fan or three would have convinced themselves over the off-season that this was their year. Mix in a vote for Wisconsin here, and Penn St there. Or maybe some practical joker might even show the Huskers some love.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: FearlessF on October 15, 2020, 04:20:25 PM
I'm not practical
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Benthere2 on October 15, 2020, 06:41:54 PM
I figured that at least a few posters would go all in on the Gophers, and that a Wolverine fan or three would have convinced themselves over the off-season that this was their year. Mix in a vote for Wisconsin here, and Penn St there. Or maybe some practical joker might even show the Huskers some love.
i would stay away form the Gophers until they play a game or two to see what they have after the COVID settles
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 15, 2020, 10:25:51 PM
I can’t rank em till I see them. But I suspect Penn State and Michigan are going to fight for the division and be better than most think. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2020, 10:23:24 AM
I can’t rank em till I see them. But I suspect Penn State and Michigan are going to fight for the division and be better than most think.
If you keep predicting someone not named Ohio State to be the best teeam in the B1G-E you'll eventually be right but so far you've done this pretty much every year and been wrong pretty much every year, sandbagger.  

So far Ohio State has won or shared the B1G-E title every year that there has been a B1G-E title to win:
Final rankings (AP):

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Honestbuckeye on October 16, 2020, 11:54:21 AM
If you keep predicting someone not named Ohio State to be the best teeam in the B1G-E you'll eventually be right but so far you've done this pretty much every year and been wrong pretty much every year, sandbagger. 

So far Ohio State has won or shared the B1G-E title every year that there has been a B1G-E title to win:
  • 2014:  Won it by a game over MSU whom they defeated 49-37 in East Lansing
  • 2015:  Tied MSU one game ahead of Michigan.  tOSU lost the tiebreaker because they lost at home by a FG to MSU but:  Ohio State beat third place Michigan 42-13 while MSU barely escaped them 27-23.  Also, while tOSU's loss was to a very good MSU team, MSU's loss was to a sub-.500 UNL.  The Buckeyes were clearly better overall and just had a bad day at the wrong time.  They still tied for first place. 
  • 2016:  Tied PSU one game ahead of Michigan.  tOSU lost the tiebreaker because they lost on the road by a FG to PSU but:  Ohio State beat third place Michigan (admittedly at home in OT) while PSU got absolutely drilled by the Wolverines (49-10).  PSU also lost OOC to a mediocre Pitt team.  Much like the previous year, the Buckeyes were the best team in the division but they had their bad day at the wrong time.  They still tied for first place. 
  • 2017:  Won it by a game over PSU and MSU.  The Buckeyes beat PSU by a point and drilled MSU 48-3. 
  • 2018:  Tied M two games ahead of PSU.  tOSU won the tiebreaker because they beat M at home 62-39.  This is probably the best year to argue that tOSU was NOT the best team in the B1G-E.  The Buckeyes barely escaped third place PSU (27-26 on the road) while Michigan clobbered them (42-7 albeit at home).  Also, while Michigan's conference loss was to a very good tOSU team, tOSU's was an inexplicable blowout loss to a sub-.500 PU.  On the other side of the coin Michigan's loss to tOSU wasn't very close and they also ended up with two other losses.  One was a respectable road loss by a TD to a very good ND squad but the other was a blowout loss to Florida in the Peach Bowl.  Looking at the whole 13/14 game resumes, it isn't easy to argue that Michigan's 10-3 was better than tOSU's 13-1. 
  • 2019:  Won it by two games over PSU.  The Buckeyes beat PSU 28-17 at home. 
Final rankings (AP):
  • 2014:  #1 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #5 MSU.  tOSU by 4. 
  • 2015:  #4 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #6 MSU.  tOSU by 2. 
  • 2016:  #6 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #7 PSU.  tOSU by 1. 
  • 2017:  #5 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #8 PSU.  tOSU by 3. 
  • 2018:  #3 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #14 M.  tOSU by 11. 
  • 2019:  #3 tOSU; best other B1G-E team was #9 PSU.  tOSU by 6. 


You are a welcome sight my friend. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2020, 12:03:57 PM
This excellent writer posted this today as far as predictions and I will share it because I was already thinking this:
RAMZY: BEWARE THE WOLVERINES

Michigan is going to be a legitimate pain in the ass this season because it has finally been knocked far enough off of the arrogance perch that has kept its self-defeating culture weaponized for the better part of the millennium. No one is going out of their way to overrate them in 2020. COVID has humbled everyone to a degree, which only benefits the B1G program in most need of humbling, And there’s no anointed savior on the roster; just a bunch of guys accustomed to winning the least when it matters the most.


They remind me of Brian Griese’s 1997 Wolverines, minus - and it’s a sizable minus - Charles Woodson. They’ll give everyone their best shot and for the first time in forever, should lack that entitlement chip that’s predictably and consistently knocked them back to earth.
In this same vein, I have been noticing that Michigan, of late, is basically a worst-case-scenario opponent for Ohio State.  In the last 20 years the Wolverines have finished between 8-5 (.615) and 10-3 (.769) 12 times.  That means that in 60% of the years between 2000 and 2019 the Buckeye's final regular season opponent was a team that is good enough that even a NC contender needs to be on their toes for, but wasn't actually good enough to get any significant credit for beating them.  

When you play a team better than that there is a bigger chance of losing, of course, but the trade off is that you get a LOT of credit if you do beat them.  

When you play a team worse than that it hurts your SoS but the trade off is that there is very little chance of losing.  

Teams in that 8-5 through 10-3 range, IMHO, are the worst case scenario because they are neither good enough to provide credit for beating them nor bad enough to be an easy win.  

This is all predicated, of course, on our team being roughly top-10 but for the last 20 years or so, they generally have been.  In the last 20 years Ohio State has finished:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 16, 2020, 01:07:13 PM
It might be easier to consider using medians:

In the last 20 years, Ohio State's median final record was 11.5-2, Michigan's was 9-4.  In the last 20 years Ohio State's median final ranking was #5, Michigan's was #18.  

When an 11-2/#5 type team plays a 9-4/#18 type team nothing good can come of that for the 11-2/#5 team.  
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 17, 2020, 08:35:50 AM
Where does UW fall in those metrics?
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Hawkinole on October 18, 2020, 12:55:53 AM
1. Ohio St.
2. Penn St.
3. Wisconsin
4. Michigan
5. Iowa
6. Minnesota
7. Nebraska
8. Indiana
9. MSU
10. Northwestern
11. Purdue
12. Illinois
13. Maryland
14. Rutgers

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Hawkinole on October 18, 2020, 01:58:42 AM
Well, it looks like there will be a season after all.  Thus, we need to do our usual B1G Power Rankings! 

Here is the chart from last year:
[img width=500 height=385.994]https://i.imgur.com/0eliMxY.jpg[/img]
Ohio State and Michigan started out roughly tied for #1 followed by a big gap then PSU, MSU, UW, and Iowa.  Starting in week #2 Ohio State held a slight lead over #2 UW up until they played.  After that the Buckeyes were pretty much alone in first place through the end of the year.  Rutgers was a near-unanimous #14 all year long. 
Other than for Rutgers and Ohio St., the chart is all over the place.
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 19, 2020, 03:48:48 PM
Where does UW fall in those metrics?
In the last 20 years Wisconsin's median final record was 9.5-3.5 (half way between their 10th best of 9-3 and their 11th best of 10-4).  Their median final ranking was #19 (half way between their 10th best of #17 and their 11th best of #21).  That is almost exactly tied with Michigan on both metrics.  

Since you asked, Wisconsin's final record the past 20 years:
(https://i.imgur.com/3NV2xmR.png)
And Wisconsin's final ranking the past 20 years (AP):
(https://i.imgur.com/a1XvQnn.png)
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 19, 2020, 03:56:05 PM
Comparing the three on final ranking the last 20 years (2000-2019):
Top-5:

6-10:
11-15:
16-20:
21-25:
ORV:
No Votes:

Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 20, 2020, 12:52:22 PM
Please vote today.  I'm going to compile tonight or tomorrow morning and I only have 11 voters so far.  

So far:


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 21, 2020, 04:27:54 PM


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: medinabuckeye1 on October 21, 2020, 04:44:52 PM
Results posted.

Major outliers (a vote nobody agreed with and nobody was within one):


Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: 847badgerfan on October 21, 2020, 04:53:47 PM
I'd have them higher if Jack Coan wasn't hurt. Sure, there is a lot of hype with Mertz, but we've seen this movie before.

We'll know a whole lot more about UW after Friday night. 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Benthere2 on October 21, 2020, 08:30:04 PM
I'd have them higher if Jack Coan wasn't hurt. Sure, there is a lot of hype with Mertz, but we've seen this movie before.

We'll know a whole lot more about UW after Friday night.

ill say we will know a lot more about every team after this weekend.  

i am just glad to see BigTen football again and hope every team stays healthy and we can prove the country how it is done 
Title: Re: B1G Power Rankings, preseason
Post by: Brutus Buckeye on October 21, 2020, 08:39:05 PM
As long as the other guy can still hand the ball off to the running back, there shouldn't be all that much of a drop off after Coan. 

This is the Wisconsin offense that we are talking about. Not Oregon.